Player Discussion Neal Pionk: Part II

gorangers0525

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There are actual problems with Pionk's game that go beyond the metrics. They've been discussed in here ad nauseum.

I don't know, I think its a discussion thats more than worth having with out going all "DUURRR ANALYTICS." Even if we leave them out of it, there is plenty to discuss about what he doesn't (and does) do well.


Thank you, it is so far beyond metrics with this guy. Without the puck he could be the weakest defenseman on the team. With the puck, he does some fun stuff.
 
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nally

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Okay, I have read most of this thread and I'm more on the fence now than I was about this player. I'm thinking about trading for him in my keeper league. I'd have to give up a 2nd and 8th round pick as well as Cale Addeson. His value is a bit higher than just his production as he salary is .500 in a 20 man roster and 50 million cap. Do you think its worth it, or should I hold on to the 2nd round pick? I'm currently in first of a 12 team league so basically a 20-25 pick. At this point, there are really only the players that will be drafted in to the NHL in the upcoming draft to choose from...with some exceptions that have done well this year that haven't been drafted yet.
Anyway, should I pay the heavy price and hope he keeps producing? Or is he more than likely going to lose his spot not only on the top pairing, but pp1 as well.
Thanks in advance
 

Blue Blooded

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Okay, I have read most of this thread and I'm more on the fence now than I was about this player. I'm thinking about trading for him in my keeper league. I'd have to give up a 2nd and 8th round pick as well as Cale Addeson. His value is a bit higher than just his production as he salary is .500 in a 20 man roster and 50 million cap. Do you think its worth it, or should I hold on to the 2nd round pick? I'm currently in first of a 12 team league so basically a 20-25 pick. At this point, there are really only the players that will be drafted in to the NHL in the upcoming draft to choose from...with some exceptions that have done well this year that haven't been drafted yet.
Anyway, should I pay the heavy price and hope he keeps producing? Or is he more than likely going to lose his spot not only on the top pairing, but pp1 as well.
Thanks in advance

I can't comment on the trade itself, but this is a very rough estimate of what I see offensively from Pionk going forward:

Based on his current on-ice xGF rates and reasonable estimates of IPP, 65% on the PP (PPQB1 avg) and 40% 5v5 (current rate and a normal rate for offensive defencemen), he projects to end the season with 34-36 points scoring roughly 0.4 PPG the rest of the way. That assumes he isn't taken off the top PP unit, which is quite reasonable to assume he will at some point because the metrics aren't pretty when he is on it and the shooting percentage will regress. If you remove the PP estimate completely (too harsh, he will likely still be on it for a while longer and get several chances to get back on it) he projects to end the season with 27-28 points, scoring at 0.27 PPG.
 

nally

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I can't comment on the trade itself, but this is a very rough estimate of what I see offensively from Pionk going forward:

Based on his current on-ice xGF rates and reasonable estimates of IPP, 65% on the PP (PPQB1 avg) and 40% 5v5 (current rate and a normal rate for offensive defencemen), he projects to end the season with 34-36 points scoring roughly 0.4 PPG the rest of the way. That assumes he isn't taken off the top PP unit, which is quite reasonable to assume he will at some point because the metrics aren't pretty when he is on it and the shooting percentage will regress. If you remove the PP estimate completely (too harsh, he will likely still be on it for a while longer and get several chances to get back on it) he projects to end the season with 27-28 points, scoring at 0.27 PPG.

This is great! Thanks so much for your insight. I think i'll pass on this one.
 

True Blue

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Without the puck he could be the weakest defenseman on the team.
Not even close. Pionk competes and is involved. That is clear. He does not seem to be in awe of anyone or fearful. For some reason, ADA's issues are chalked up to rookie mistakes and growing pains, but Pionk's are signs of defensive ineptitude. Yes, he can improve and no reason not to think that he can't. But there is something in him worth developing.
 
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Inferno

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Not even close. Pionk competes and is involved. That is clear. He does not seem to be in awe of anyone or fearful. For some reason, ADA's issues are chalked up to rookie mistakes and growing pains, but Pionk's are signs of defensive ineptitude. Yes, he can improve and no reason not to think that he can't. But there is something in him worth developing.
Both Ada and pionk battle well in the defensive zone. I see a few issues with both.

Ada. He gets puck watchy at times and sorta floats towards the puck unconsciously, then his brain snaps back he looks around and gets his guy... He's also very very easy to outmuscle at the point of attack.

Pionk. Much better awareness than DeAngelo but horrendous gap management. Very coachable issue that I think will be better. He also is atrocious with the puck on his stick and under danger. The polar opposite of DeAngelo. If Ada is under pressure 9 times out of 10 he makes the perfect pass to get the puck to an open teammate. Pionk does the girardi by banging it up the boards no matter what. Pionk is also much better in terms of using his low center of gravity to get under guys and get them outta danger areas.

I'd say neither player is flawless in their own some, I'd also say pionks biggest issues are coachable...if he's gonna girardi everything under danger that's not good, but if he can get his gaps in line I think he's got a safe 2nd pair upside.

I'd say DeAngelo is already a 2nd pair defenseman, but if his awareness with the puck off his stick could be improved....and I'm not sure that's a coachable thing or not...maybe? He's got first pair upside.


Just my hot take.
 
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offdacrossbar

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there was a play in the 3rd period of last game where ADA was all alone if the D zone heading off for a change and half way to the wall he busted back to break up a scoring chance.

kids very aware, he can flat out skate and hes responsible

pionk is the same way. they both bring a ton to this team in different ways

pionk to me is limited in his upside. he plays small. lacks intuitive hockey sense and low panic level- meaning he panics quickly.

ADA has a better ceiling, plays bigger has high panic level and has natural hockey sense plus is gifted with the pill.
 

gorangers0525

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Not even close. Pionk competes and is involved. That is clear. He does not seem to be in awe of anyone or fearful. For some reason, ADA's issues are chalked up to rookie mistakes and growing pains, but Pionk's are signs of defensive ineptitude. Yes, he can improve and no reason not to think that he can't. But there is something in him worth developing.

He sure acts fearful when he’s leaving a half rink gap, and flinging the puck to no one at the slightest sign of pressure. If it’s a confidence thing, maybe he’ll be able to improve dramatically. I sure hope so. If it is ingrained in his mind that this is how to properly play defense, he’s beyond saving.
 
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True Blue

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He sure acts fearful when he’s leaving a half rink gap, and flinging the puck to no one at the slightest sign of pressure.
I think that he is pretty fearless. Discussing :gap control" and "fear"may be two different things.
If it’s a confidence thing, maybe he’ll be able to improve dramatically. I sure hope so. If it is ingrained in his mind that this is how to properly play defense, he’s beyond saving.
1. Why would he be already beyond saving when he has not yet had a full season under his belt?
2. Isn't gap control as defined by you, a pretty coachable thing?
3. Again, can someone explain to me why when it comes to DeAgelo, it is all about rookie mistakes and being room to grow. But when it comes to Pionk, we get into such terminology as "fear" and "beyond saving"?
 
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Filthy Dangles

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Gap control might be coachable to an extent. It relies on so many things though. One's skating ability, general positioning, and the reads and decision making a player makes. Like you can tell a kid and reiterate to gap up after making a pass or play and stay up on a guy as much as possible I guess.

Also, gap is influenced by the scheme and team play. The teams Neutral Zone Forecheck is constantly exploited and a lot of the times the forwards deserve a large part of the blame for not steerring or influencing the play before a puck carrier skates into the zone. Too many times our D including Pionk are forced to backoff because no one knows who has who or what lane in the neutral zone. Sometimes its the F1/F2 not pressuring quick enough or influencing a decision. Other times it's F3 losing their man and forcing a tough decision on the defensemen to stay up on their guy or back off.
 

offdacrossbar

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pionk is no slouch. hes a very good looking young offensive dman. i actually like his game a lot and i wasnt, until recently, his biggest fan. hes grown on me with his ability to play well and handle huge minutes.

his game is underrated and subtle. hes quiet and efficient and for a young dman, thats damn good.

look, he makes good sound decisions with the puck. he does. without it, he still struggles and his ability to make passes or move the pill under duress is still a work in progress. he plays nervous at times but that is to be expected. he needs to understand the defensive time and space thing better.

the good stuff allows us to overlook the holes in his game.
 

Filthy Dangles

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Here's an example of good gap by Neal. Decent breakout by Vancouver but it was an easy read as VAN really only had the far lane and middle lanes occupied up ice on the rush. You can see he gapped and angled Schaller off real well forcing the dump in. When more moving parts are thrown int the equation like all 3 forward lanes filled and guys exchanging lanes, etc. Neal struggles with reading and reacting sometimes.
 

offdacrossbar

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Here's an example of good gap by Neal. Decent breakout by Vancouver but it was an easy read as VAN really only had the far lane and middle lanes occupied up ice on the rush. You can see he gapped and angled Schaller off real well forcing the dump in. When more moving parts are thrown int the equation like all 3 forward lanes filled and guys exchanging lanes, etc. Neal struggles with reading and reacting sometimes.


thats an easy read and react play. the wall limits the right side exposure and hes got left side help.

he keeps his gap and forces the forward to dump the puck and his proper read is to take the body and delay his entry

any high school dman could make that read there.
 

egelband

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Not even close. Pionk competes and is involved. That is clear. He does not seem to be in awe of anyone or fearful. For some reason, ADA's issues are chalked up to rookie mistakes and growing pains, but Pionk's are signs of defensive ineptitude. Yes, he can improve and no reason not to think that he can't. But there is something in him worth developing.
Exactly. The metrics measure what Pionk was. We can see flashes of what he might (and hopefully will) become. That’s why I don’t worry so much about the metrics with a developing player. The numbers measure the past but Pionk will be a different player in a year or two.
 
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Edge

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From a pure talent perspective, ADA is arguably near the top of the prospect/young player list for this team. His talent level is simply on a different level than Pionk’s, and that’s not meant as an insult.

You could probably make the argument that ADA underachieved coming into this season, whereas Pionk overachieved. But I think both kids deserve a lot of credit for how far they’ve both come in 12 months.

I do worry that we sometimes become a bit too nit picky considering both players’ age and experience level, but I think we also have to acknowledge that having a pair of 23 year old defenseman score a combined 5 goals and 17 points in 26 total games is not exactly a common occurrence.
 

The S5

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We really need to keep the discussion of Pionk separate from ADA and vice versa. They both show lots of promise but, at this point, flawed players.

As for Pionk, I think he struggles with strength and confidence at times. Hopefully, but can be fixed with time.
The good news is the kid seems to find the scoresheet. Fans have been pining for a scoring D man for years. We have one that looks promising. FWIW, there are very few, if any, high scoring D that are shut down types in the D zone.
 

YoSoyLalo

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Pionk has good physical tools but his positioning and ability to read plays in the defensive/neutral zone are highly questionable.

IMO they’re things that can be ironed out with proper coaching. Even if he improves to mediocre defensively, I think he’ll be a valuable guy, especially if he’s going to put up 40+.

Also, think Staal is probably the worst possible partner for him.
 

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I think the last thing Pionk lacks is confidence.

The size issue is always going to be a thing for him, we can't really harp on that. His gap control and poise under pressure in his own end are what need to improve, sometimes thats an experience thing and sometimes it isn't.

Hes starting to shoot more and is pretty damn effective at skating the puck up ice, even if his feet take a little bit to get going.
 

SML2

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PS: That was Pionk's 6th multi-point game. Only Leetch, Zubov, Del Zotto, Girardi and Johnsson had more throughout their first 2 NHL seasons since 1986
I dont want to be dismissive, but that pretty much lists every decent enough defenseman to have his first two seasons with this team. This team is the master of either drafting young guys who never make it, or bringing in a veteran to take the minutes away from a kid.

The one thing Pionk does that I love is he just gets a shot through. It's such a basic part of the game. There is not any reason to throw it up and down the wall and across the points all day. The puck has to go toward the net to score. The KISS approach is so good to see after years of shotless PPs.
 

NYR Viper

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It's uncanny how he just keeps racking up points. His shots are accurate, low and hard and are ideal for deflections and rebounds. He's a very competitive kid too, you can tell with the way he plays defense. As long as h continues to pressure the puck and use his speed and quickness to his advantage he will continue to do well. I don't think he is top-pairing right now but he is playing well
 

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