NBA Hints at Future Expansion

qwerty

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Feb 4, 2007
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I agree NBA isn't giving a team to Canada but I think NBA team can sell out in Vancouver or Montreal.

At first.

They need to win to maintain it though.
I don't doubt that winning can keep butts in seats either, but the odds are stacked against both of them. Vancouver is an extremely fickle sports town and Montreal is the highest taxed market in all of North America. I just don't see any superstars signing up to play in either market to make it a perennially winning franchise.

I mean when do we ever see smaller market NBA franchises make noise in the playoffs? Never. They cant compete with the big boys and I foresee any new Canadian franchises going through the exact same thing.

I don’t think the NBA is an ideal league for Canada. It’s too superstar driven and at the grassroots level, it just isn’t there to build a loyal season ticket fanbase for decades to come.

Losing every year isn’t fun and the occasional game you get to a legit superstar won’t be enough gate revenue to justify the franchise price tag. I think Mexico City gets a team before a second Canadian franchise IMO.
 

KevFu

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the only question there is can you compete with the Montreal media and not get buried on page 8, 9 or 10 of the sports section, whereas the focus is squarely/historically being Les Habitants 24/7/365.....

I don't think it matters.

The NY Rangers are less popular than the Yankees, Mets, Giants, Jets and Knicks -- not pooping on the Rangers, the Islanders and Devils are even less popular, the point is -- and the Rangers are one of the top 3 NHL teams in revenue and franchise value.

Hockey is just too big in Canada. The GTA is huge, and can support basketball as a secondary sport’s league. Vancouver and Montreal are too small (the only Canadian options for the NBA) for basketball to survive.

Being SECOND in Montreal to the Habs is still RIDICULOUSLY APPEALING to the NBA. You're going to go to Kansas City with the Chiefs and Royals for 2 million fans, or go to Montreal and be second to the Habs with 4 million people?

Geoff Molson has expressed an interest in a NBA team for Montreal but the math is daunting with the value of the $CDN

The math is far less daunting when he already owns the arena. The hardest part of an expansion franchise -- getting one and being profitable -- is the venue. We've seen a bunch of teams get terrible leases that stunted their growth (Arizona, Nashville, Columbus). MLB is itching to expand and can't until Oakland and Tampa get stadium deals done. Montreal does not have that problem at all.


NBA Montreal is in the exact same position as NHL Houston; only Moulson is seeing the Raptors win the NBA title and Canadian NBA is a much easier sell than Texas NHL.
 

Fatass

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I don't think it matters.

The NY Rangers are less popular than the Yankees, Mets, Giants, Jets and Knicks -- not pooping on the Rangers, the Islanders and Devils are even less popular, the point is -- and the Rangers are one of the top 3 NHL teams in revenue and franchise value.



Being SECOND in Montreal to the Habs is still RIDICULOUSLY APPEALING to the NBA. You're going to go to Kansas City with the Chiefs and Royals for 2 million fans, or go to Montreal and be second to the Habs with 4 million people?



The math is far less daunting when he already owns the arena. The hardest part of an expansion franchise -- getting one and being profitable -- is the venue. We've seen a bunch of teams get terrible leases that stunted their growth (Arizona, Nashville, Columbus). MLB is itching to expand and can't until Oakland and Tampa get stadium deals done. Montreal does not have that problem at all.


NBA Montreal is in the exact same position as NHL Houston; only Moulson is seeing the Raptors win the NBA title and Canadian NBA is a much easier sell than Texas NHL.
If the NBA was adding a team in Canada I think it would be Vancouver. And still I think they won’t, because their just isn’t a good enough market here for basketball. It’s a fringe sport up here.
 

DaBadGuy7

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If the NBA was adding a team in Canada I think it would be Vancouver. And still I think they won’t, because their just isn’t a good enough market here for basketball. It’s a fringe sport up here.

That’s not true at all especially with all the talent that is currently in the NBA. In fact, I think there a big potential for basketball to be big in Canada. I think the Raptors championship will prove to be crucial in the next generation of Canadians watching, playing, and enjoying the sport
 

Fatass

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That’s not true at all especially with all the talent that is currently in the NBA. In fact, I think there a big potential for basketball to be big in Canada. I think the Raptors championship will prove to be crucial in the next generation of Canadians watching, playing, and enjoying the sport
I agree there are lots of kids playing basketball, and we are producing some elite players. But we have even more kids playing soccer, but I don’t see any Canadian team supporting a professional soccer team with enough dollars to have an English premirership team here, do you? It’s more than just having kids play, and producing some talent. Maybe in fifty years things will change, but for the next few decades we just won’t be a basketball country. We will b3 hockey.
 

GKJ

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They're not going to let that arena in Seattle sit forever without an NBA team. But the NBA would be smart to take advantage of growing popularity in Canada.
 

DaBadGuy7

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I agree there are lots of kids playing basketball, and we are producing some elite players. But we have even more kids playing soccer, but I don’t see any Canadian team supporting a professional soccer team with enough dollars to have an English premirership team here, do you? It’s more than just having kids play, and producing some talent. Maybe in fifty years things will change, but for the next few decades we just won’t be a basketball country. We will b3 hockey.

I will agree if Vancouver or Montreal ever got a team they are gonna have to well run and smart as an organization considering the disadvantages they will have in terms of taxes and the fact they aren’t in the US. But, I think if they are competitive and consistently playoff teams with success I think they would well supported. I do think NBA wants another team in Canada if the finances and opportunity are right, it makes sense to further grow and brand in the country.
 

KevFu

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If the NBA was adding a team in Canada I think it would be Vancouver. And still I think they won’t, because their just isn’t a good enough market here for basketball. It’s a fringe sport up here.

But that's a self-fulfilling prophesy.

There's 38 million Canadians and ONE NBA TEAM.
For perspective: California is at 40 million people and they have four. Texas has 30 million people and three teams; NYC has 20 million people and 2 teams.

Adding a team in Montreal that could bring in some of the 8 million people in Quebec into NBA fandom is a very smart business move. Montreal & Seattle is easily the smartest NBA expansion move. Because Moulson owns the arena, there's 4 million people in Montreal and 8 million in the province which is totally untapped... and the next biggest untapped NBA markets after Seattle are cities of 3 million or fewer people, all of which have teams already nearby:

San Diego (probably Lakers' fans already)
Tampa (probably Magic fans)
Baltimore (Wizards)

Then St. Louis and Las Vegas.
 
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Big Z Man 1990

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MLS already has teams in Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver - and they all have a huge three-way rivalry amongst themselves

Likewise, those three cities by being together in the NBA's Northwest Division would be rivals with each other

This would make Nuggets-Jazz the biggest NW Division rivalry not involving Pacific Northwest teams; both are in the Rocky Mountains
 

Big Z Man 1990

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I've been wanting a schedule format skewed more heavily towards division games for years, but to me it would require the removal of Minnesota and OKC from the NW Division to the Central and SW Divisions, respectively

And the only way that can happen? Expanding to Seattle and Vancouver

Time Zones matter a lot in sports; Columbus and Detroit wanted out of the Western Conference of the NHL for years because they are in the Eastern Time Zone

The only way it could have happened without adding new teams was for an existing Eastern Conference team to relocate outside the Eastern Time Zone

That requirement was fulfilled when the Atlanta Thrashers became the Winnipeg Jets in 2011

Thus, for a few years, the Eastern Conference had 16 teams, but the West only had 14 - now it has 15, and soon it will have 16
 

DaBadGuy7

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2.5 billion fee probably takes Vancouver out of the race and Montreal group would need Molson family involved to have a shot
 

generalshepherd141

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But that's a self-fulfilling prophesy.

There's 38 million Canadians and ONE NBA TEAM.
For perspective: California is at 40 million people and they have four. Texas has 30 million people and three teams; NYC has 20 million people and 2 teams.

Adding a team in Montreal that could bring in some of the 8 million people in Quebec into NBA fandom is a very smart business move. Montreal & Seattle is easily the smartest NBA expansion move. Because Moulson owns the arena, there's 4 million people in Montreal and 8 million in the province which is totally untapped... and the next biggest untapped NBA markets after Seattle are cities of 3 million or fewer people, all of which have teams already nearby:

San Diego (probably Lakers' fans already)
Tampa (probably Magic fans)
Baltimore (Wizards)

Then St. Louis and Las Vegas.
You're spot on. The only other city that would make close to as much sense as Montreal or Seattle is San Diego, but they don't have a viable long-term arena at the moment.
Looking at the sizes of the TV markets without an NBA team, these two are clearly the best options. I think Montreal would be a home run for the NBA, as the fans would fill that arena over capacity each and every night, like they do for the Canadiens. There's talk about the MLB returning to Montreal but imo the NBA is a much better fit.
 

Big Z Man 1990

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If it is Seattle and Las Vegas, then a 4-division alignment would make sense again:

East:
Atlantic: Atlanta, Boston, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Miami, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia
Central: Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Indiana, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Toronto, Washington

West:
Pacific: Golden State, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Portland, Sacramento, Seattle
Southwest: Dallas. Denver, Houston, Memphis, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Utah

5 or 4 games against each division rival = 34
2 games against everyone else = 48

Still, I feel Vancouver could be a dark horse candidate
 
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kerrabria

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Vegas doesn't make a lot of sense to me tbqh.
The NBA has always looked to non-traditional markets where they don't have to compete for attention. Vegas is one of the world's entertainment capitals to start with, and the NBA team would be showing up on ground already broke by the Golden Knights, Raiders, and the UFC, which basically operates out of there as a home base.

I hope Montreal gets the other team, being that Seattle is obviously getting one.
 
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Big Z Man 1990

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Vegas doesn't make a lot of sense to me tbqh.
The NBA has always looked to non-traditional markets where they don't have to compete for attention. Vegas is one of the world's entertainment capitals to start with, and the NBA team would be showing up on ground already broke by the Golden Knights, Raiders, and the UFC, which basically operates out of there as a home base.

I hope Montreal gets the other team, being that Seattle is obviously getting one.

I think there won't be any more teams added in the East. The goal would probably be to move Minnesota into a division with other Midwestern teams.
 

BKIslandersFan

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Seattle NHL group seems to embrace the idea of NBA team.

Wonder what Bill Foley thinks. He does have a minority stake in T-Mobile Arena.
 

blueandgoldguy

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I don’t see a team happening in Canada any time soon. Like which billionaire is stepping up to pay the rumored $2 billion US ($2.7B CAD) so they can fill up half an arena when the inevitable honeymoon period is over?

Montreal can barely fill an arena when they’re mediocre and Vancouver looks Florida-esque when rebuilding, so what’s the basketball team going to look like when the superstars aren’t coming and they resemble the Memphis Grizzlies?

It’s a foolish risk and would be a disaster financially for whichever owner decides to jump all in on the next team in Canada.

Montreal can barely fill an arena when they are mediocre? Umm what? it's the largest arena in the league at nearly 22,000 and those games for which they did not sell out still had around 20,000 people attending Canadiens games. It's not something to be concerned about considering the team has rarely been a legit Stanley Cup contender the past 2 decades, have some of the highest ticket prices in the league and have been a top-2 or 3 revenue for as long as we can remember despite a .75 Cndn dollar.

Vancouver has averaged 18,000 or more per game while rebuilding. They are still a top ten revenue team in the NHL despite stagnant ticket prices and a .75 dollar. Your "Vancouver looks Florida-esque" comment is ill-informed and foolish.

Vancouver Canucks [NHL] yearly attendance at hockeydb.com

Vancouver has 2.5 million in the metro, another 500,000 in the Fraser Valley and another 750,000 on the island. They currently have one team in the big-4 sports leagues. Montreal has 4 million in its metro and another couple million within 2 hours drive. They also only have one big-4 pro sports team.

Both markets are underserved and both would do as well or better than many proposed cities (ie. Kansas already saturated with Chiefs and Royals and little growth, barely 2 million, Louisville - small and half the size of Vancouver) and current cities (ie. Memphis - among lowest revenue generating teams in the league, small and poor, New Orleans - small, poor, no growth, losing superstars every 6 years...see Chris Paul, Anthony Davis, and in 6 years, likely Zion Williamson as well). Montreal would likely be a mid-revenue team befitting it's size, even with a .75 dollar. Vancouver would likely be lower-mid level...top 20 or so.

I'm not sure where you get these rumours of $2 billion expansion fees from because the more likely fees will be a $1 billion to $1.5 billion. Still a high price no doubt, but something I think a group in one of Montreal or Vancouver would be willing to pay given how lucrative the league's tv deals and international sponsorships are at this point. It's certainly is not a foolish financial risk at all given even the terrible franchises currently pull in $50 million in profits per year.
 

blueandgoldguy

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If the NBA was adding a team in Canada I think it would be Vancouver. And still I think they won’t, because their just isn’t a good enough market here for basketball. It’s a fringe sport up here.

It's not the 90s anymore Larry. Vancouver and BC have grown significantly in the last 20 years. Almost 4 million people within a few hours drive of Vancouver and on the island. Both Vancouver and Canada have seen an significant influx of immigrants from basketball-loving countries like the Phillipines and China. The number of NBA players from Canada has increased to 50. I could see that number double in the next decade especially with if another NBA team exists in Canada.

There is already an arena in place, a likely ownership group and the desirable demographics. Vancouver would not be handicapped as version 1.0 was with a bad owner or punishing draft rules, nor would it be reliant on gate revenue.
 

cutchemist42

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I just think Montreal would much rather have baseball over basketball. I think Montreal could turn on an NBA team even quicker than Vancouver if they were bad for awhile.
 

blueandgoldguy

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Well another article stated 1 - 1.5 billion for an expansion team. I would be shocked to see Seattle pay $2.5 billion for a team for as wealthy and lucrative as that market would be. It was only a few years ago, that the Clippers sold for 2 billion but that is in the second largest market in the US - 18 million people. 500 million more dollars a few years later in a market one-quarter the size seems steep and unrealistic.
 

LadyStanley

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Vegas doesn't make a lot of sense to me tbqh.
The NBA has always looked to non-traditional markets where they don't have to compete for attention. Vegas is one of the world's entertainment capitals to start with, and the NBA team would be showing up on ground already broke by the Golden Knights, Raiders, and the UFC, which basically operates out of there as a home base.

MiLB Aviators and USL Lights probably have more local fan attention than UFC. (And probably UNLV)


As for Foley buying into a NBA team, I'm thinking he might be the front man for a coalition. NBA is asking for expansion fee FIVE TIMES the $$s Foley put together to buy in for VGK. He does have the chutzpah to participate, but would need a larger group of folks to buy in. (They've already put in for a MSL team.)
 

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