AvsFan29
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- Mar 15, 2018
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He’s a major part of it, and the key to their current success is puck moving Dmen and fast skating depth.
Nathan Mackinnon's down years
- Thread starter Snippit
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Gurglesons
Registered User
The Panther
Registered User
Yeah, it's a good thread topic. He's a curious player in terms of his development. I can't think of another player right now who had the really good rookie year, three fairly disappointing years, and then suddenly surged back at superstar level in year 5 (and beyond) as he has done.
The Avs were a better team in his rookie year and from his year 5 (and worse in between), so there is that. But I don't think that alone explains it because in his year 2, the Avs were still pretty good (.500-ish) yet he fell of so sharply it was like two different players.
It can't be entirely explained by ice-time / opportunity either, as it was his fourth season when he really became the top center on his club... and yet he still had only 53 points (though that was enough to lead the club, so horrid were the 16-17 Avs).
The pivot season here is 2016-17, though, because that's right before he hit superstar level and it's the season he became the top center/player on his team. Unfortunately, the Avs were a train-wreck that season. Perhaps if the Avs had been at least more competitive that year, MacKinnon would have put up, say, 75 points instead of 53. And then we'd see more of a gradual increase from his third to fourth to fifth seasons. But since they sucked very large bone that year, his stats aren't very impressive even though he led the team.
And then, the big break-out in year five.
Besides his own psychology and aroma-therapy or whatever he's using, it might also be a thing where he needed to physically mature and he needed to be the TOP DOG on his club. When he was younger, he was always behind Duchene or Iginla or Landeskog. Some guys really respond when they are suddenly elevated to a leadership / top-star role on a club (and others wither and wilt).
The Avs were a better team in his rookie year and from his year 5 (and worse in between), so there is that. But I don't think that alone explains it because in his year 2, the Avs were still pretty good (.500-ish) yet he fell of so sharply it was like two different players.
It can't be entirely explained by ice-time / opportunity either, as it was his fourth season when he really became the top center on his club... and yet he still had only 53 points (though that was enough to lead the club, so horrid were the 16-17 Avs).
The pivot season here is 2016-17, though, because that's right before he hit superstar level and it's the season he became the top center/player on his team. Unfortunately, the Avs were a train-wreck that season. Perhaps if the Avs had been at least more competitive that year, MacKinnon would have put up, say, 75 points instead of 53. And then we'd see more of a gradual increase from his third to fourth to fifth seasons. But since they sucked very large bone that year, his stats aren't very impressive even though he led the team.
And then, the big break-out in year five.
Besides his own psychology and aroma-therapy or whatever he's using, it might also be a thing where he needed to physically mature and he needed to be the TOP DOG on his club. When he was younger, he was always behind Duchene or Iginla or Landeskog. Some guys really respond when they are suddenly elevated to a leadership / top-star role on a club (and others wither and wilt).
Canucks fan here.
He impresses me just as much as McDavid.
He is the clear #2 player in the NHL right now. Just an absolute bull out there... reminds me of young Ovi.
He impresses me just as much as McDavid.
He is the clear #2 player in the NHL right now. Just an absolute bull out there... reminds me of young Ovi.
1st year - Mack came into the league in a perfect situation as the Avs were an offensive-oriented and his speed and skill took a lot of teams by surprise. He also got fairly sheltered matchups.
2nd year - he hit a sophomore slump, along with finally hitting his first major roadblock and he started getting frustrated. He would try and make a bunch of low percentage plays and more often than not would end up just turning the puck over as the league learned how to defend against his speed.
3rd year - he was transitioned to center and again had more of a learning curve, as well as the Avs being a worse team and still wasn't that good. He would have a decent game now and then, but plenty of people were starting to doubt him. The Avs also had a bunch of aging vets and the team had zero identity, it was simple figuring out what we had at that point.
4th year - this year he actually looked quite a bit better and was driving play a bit more, but it also coincided with being stuck on the worst team statistically since the lockout.
5th year - the year started with a bunch of doom and gloom, especially with the Duchene drama being front and center of the team. The Avs looked pretty bad, definitely a lottery contender and Mack didn't look great in October. However, a week or two after Duchene was traded everything just 'clicked' for Mack and the Avs became his team. He ended up putting that team on his back and pulling it out of the basement, and the rest of the team started to realize that they actually had some talent.
Mack was always physically mature, there wasn't really a time where he ever looked out of place physically. There was a large learning curve for him figuring out what worked and what didn't work, and then figuring that out again as a center. This is where I imagine the sports psychologist helped, as he had all the tools, it was just putting it all together in the toolbox. If he was placed in a perfect situation, I still think he would've had down years in his 2nd and 3rd season, but his 4th year would've looked a lot better.
2nd year - he hit a sophomore slump, along with finally hitting his first major roadblock and he started getting frustrated. He would try and make a bunch of low percentage plays and more often than not would end up just turning the puck over as the league learned how to defend against his speed.
3rd year - he was transitioned to center and again had more of a learning curve, as well as the Avs being a worse team and still wasn't that good. He would have a decent game now and then, but plenty of people were starting to doubt him. The Avs also had a bunch of aging vets and the team had zero identity, it was simple figuring out what we had at that point.
4th year - this year he actually looked quite a bit better and was driving play a bit more, but it also coincided with being stuck on the worst team statistically since the lockout.
5th year - the year started with a bunch of doom and gloom, especially with the Duchene drama being front and center of the team. The Avs looked pretty bad, definitely a lottery contender and Mack didn't look great in October. However, a week or two after Duchene was traded everything just 'clicked' for Mack and the Avs became his team. He ended up putting that team on his back and pulling it out of the basement, and the rest of the team started to realize that they actually had some talent.
Mack was always physically mature, there wasn't really a time where he ever looked out of place physically. There was a large learning curve for him figuring out what worked and what didn't work, and then figuring that out again as a center. This is where I imagine the sports psychologist helped, as he had all the tools, it was just putting it all together in the toolbox. If he was placed in a perfect situation, I still think he would've had down years in his 2nd and 3rd season, but his 4th year would've looked a lot better.
Mickey Marner
Registered User
His spittin' chiclets interview explains the situation in full detail.
his shooting percentage was really bad in year 4. he shot 6.4%. if he shot his career percentage of 10% that year he would have scored 9 more goals and finished with 62 points in 82 games on a terrible team. still not good for what he showed as a rookie and what he became immediately after that season, but it looks far more respectable.
- Feb 3, 2015
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Eichel had a similar 5th year explosion, although he had more linear improvement year to year leading up to it than Mackinnon. And then Eichel's 6th season was ruined by injury.
Statistically, MacKinnon had an absurdly low shooting percentage (like, historically low) that always had advanced stats folks scratching their heads. There was a PDOCast episode that addressed this almost right before he broke out. Basically they all expected him to be a lot better than he was based on his sheer volume of shots and possession metrics, and then when he did finally match those metrics on the scoreboard, he made a lot more sense.
In a sense: he has always been a really good player. His luck (PDO) improved drastically when the Avs started improving as a team. And maybe you can say he started picking his spots better and got more mentally engaged; he apparently changed his lifestyle off the ice and saw a sports psychologist too, so I'm sure that combination of factors all contributed too. And he really didn't like Duchene or Duchene's perceived place on the team, that was pretty obvious. But Occam's Razor here is just that you can only be so unlucky as a high volume shooter for so long. The more you shoot, the more the puck is going to go in. Just like players who go on crazy PDO binges eventually come down to earth, so do the players who are in PDO ruts.
In a sense: he has always been a really good player. His luck (PDO) improved drastically when the Avs started improving as a team. And maybe you can say he started picking his spots better and got more mentally engaged; he apparently changed his lifestyle off the ice and saw a sports psychologist too, so I'm sure that combination of factors all contributed too. And he really didn't like Duchene or Duchene's perceived place on the team, that was pretty obvious. But Occam's Razor here is just that you can only be so unlucky as a high volume shooter for so long. The more you shoot, the more the puck is going to go in. Just like players who go on crazy PDO binges eventually come down to earth, so do the players who are in PDO ruts.
There is a qualitative reason his shooting % improved. Jack Han did a video analysis of Mackinnon's shooting mechanics. He drastically improved from his early career. Less dusting the puck off, and less of a "sweeping" wrist shot. Now he has a faster release and better downward torque on the stick.
rumrokh
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- Mar 10, 2006
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People have covered a lot of aspects, but I'll add one I haven't seen mentioned (forgive me if I missed it): he used to severely overhandle the puck. He still does it now sometimes, but his hyperactive stickhandling caused him at least as many problems as it cured. It seemed almost like a compulsion and sometimes he'd slightly mistime a shot or pass or even lose the puck entirely because he did a quick, unnecessary little dust-off/deke. If a defenseman could keep up with his speed, all he had to do was stick his blade out and MacKinnon would pokecheck himself for them way too often.
It seems like he got over the worst of that habit exactly as he got stronger, started battling harder, improved his shot, and started driving the net more - the signs of overall maturation and committing himself to winning over bad habits he'd gained against lesser competition. He realized there's more than one way to play hockey and he wanted to play the kind that gets results.
It seems like he got over the worst of that habit exactly as he got stronger, started battling harder, improved his shot, and started driving the net more - the signs of overall maturation and committing himself to winning over bad habits he'd gained against lesser competition. He realized there's more than one way to play hockey and he wanted to play the kind that gets results.
MacGinnon no longer disappears for entire seasons at a time. Just important playoff games.
Puckstop40
Registered User
Agreed. What’s the point of a 1.4 ppg if you can’t score when it matters?
Was waiting for someone to mention this. Everyone wondering what happened, go listen to that interview. Clearly he was in his own head early on in his career. Figuring out the mental side of things, plus getting to play with studs like Rantanen and Makar while continuing to work on gaining strength and becoming a better finisher have led to him becoming a beast.
MessierII
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- Aug 10, 2011
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I think this is a pretty good summary, and I'm glad you don't overfocus on teammates (it's not about teammates!) and strength (he was always a beast!). But let's not forget that early Mackinnon was a predictable straight line player. Defenders could read him very easily and channel him into those low percentage plays you mentioned. The big change he made in 2017 was adding deception to his skating, his stickhandling, and his shot. He went from a predictable player to a very unpredictable player. That's how he just about doubled his scoring.
It wasn't luck. Early Mackinnon was an easy player to read. Goalies had no trouble with him. He added trickery and a better release.
