Nathan Mackinnon's down years

[Snippit]

Currently watching Mackinnon dominate the playoffs for a second straight year and it got me thinking about his relative "down years". After a very impressive rookie campaign, years 2-4 were relatively disappointing and it looked like he wouldn't reach the level many expected. Since then, in his years 5-8, he's become a superstar and arguably the 2nd best player in the league, and clearly the best playoff performer.

So what was up with the sub 60 point seasons from Mackinnon in years 2-4? Some players become stars later in their career (Marchand), but Mackinnon had a ridiculous amount of pre-draft hype, lived up to it in his rookie year, then went kind of quiet for a while before picking up on the trajectory he left off of. What happened/what changed to lead to his big break-out year/Hart finalist season in 2017-18? Was it something about the team that changed, or Mackinnon himself?

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[PeterForsberg]

He played on awful teams

 

[Avsboy]

On top of growth not being linear, Avs had a bad team for a few years and some players had a bad influence. Once Duchene was traded Mackinnon took off.

 

[WarriorOfGandhi]

the short answer is that Matt Duchene was traded and everything involving the Avalanche has been magically perfect since then

the long answer is that MacKinnon in his first years was plenty fast and had great hands but wasn't as strong or aggressive. He took a lot of shots off the rush as soon as he crossed the blueline which were not that effective. By the time he took off he was probably 20ish pounds heavier and began using his size much more. Additionally, getting Rantanen as a running mate and having Landeskog as the defensive presence (not infrequently taking center duties) helped a ton because they are also elite and their styles align so well -- they are a significant upgrade from playing on a line with guys like Mikhail Grigorenko and the corpse of Jarome Iginla.

 

[Harvey Birdman]

A combo of bad teams, some players can’t flourish until they get put into the role that requires them to be better, and development. Put all of that into a blender and pour it out as the reasons why for past seasons.

 

[lowol]

Mack was a hard player to watch in those years. He'd constantly get frustrated and attempt low-percentage plays that would systematically lead to turnovers. I was even led to believe that he was an "all tools, no toolbox" type and that his contract was a gamble, until his mindset shifted in 2017-18 just about when Duchene was traded (not sure how much of a link there is). Rantanen's breakout helped a lot too.

 

[EXTRAS]

He's the 3rd best player in the league and 2nd best playoff performer:

Makar
Mcdavid
Mackinnon

Mmm

 

[Wrath]

the short answer is that Matt Duchene was traded and everything involving the Avalanche has been magically perfect since then

the long answer is that MacKinnon in his first years was plenty fast and had great hands but wasn't as strong or aggressive. He took a lot of shots off the rush as soon as he crossed the blueline which were not that effective. By the time he took off he was probably 20ish pounds heavier and began using his size much more. Additionally, getting Rantanen as a running mate and having Landeskog as the defensive presence (not infrequently taking center duties) helped a ton because they are also elite and their styles align so well -- they are a significant upgrade from playing on a line with guys like Mikhail Grigorenko and the corpse of Jarome Iginla.

Yeah I agree with pretty much this ^^

_____________________________________

Year 1 he was in a pretty sheltered role with ROR and Duchene on the team and Stastny centering his line (he played mostly as a winger). He still had that crazy speed and especially first step/acceleration that jumps out at you when you watch. He did seem almost like a one-trick back then, he was always sort of "hovering" in the neutral zone waiting for a well-led pass for a breakaway. It was very reminiscent of Pavel Bure on the Florida Panthers TBH (except more in the neutral zone instead of near his own blue line, but Bure played in the time of the trap and 2-line pass so hard to compare). MacKinnon in year 1 basically was a huge breakaway threat, great on the shootout (has since sort of come down to earth), decent dangles, plus player on the PP... otherwise basically a 3rd line sheltered winger though.

Years 2-4 the team around him got worse (lost ROR, Stastny, Duchene declined for whatever reason) and he was asked to do a lot more. Basically he was asked to play like a top-6 forward/top-2 center. It always looked like he was trying to recapture the magic of season 1. Always loitering in the neutral zone for a loose puck to turn into a breakaway. He often looked like he was skating too fast for the situation, e.g. skating full speed in the neutral zone and fumbles the puck looking for a breakaway, skating full speed into the offensive zone only to realize that he didn't have a great angle to the net and his teammates hadn't caught up yet (turns into a low % shot or awkward hook back waiting for teammates).. This was the kind of stuff that worked in a sheltered role but not when teams started keying in on him. I don't actually believe he got any worse during this time (he didn't look like he was getting much better though either to be fair).

Years 5+ I think was a combination of trading away or not resigning players that weren't helping, Rantanen emerging as a star winger (no, Rantanen did not make MacKinnon, it's pretty clear who drives the play when you watch the two) and Bednar/Sakic building the lines and team to best take advantage of MacKinnon's talents and playstyle.

 

[JT Kreider]

It was Matt Duchene, everything he touches turns to shit, look at the messes in Ottawa and CBJ that coincide with his arrival, while MacK and the Avs have been on fire since the day of that trade

 

[Wintersun]

I personally think Rantanen has a lot to do with it.

 

[Future GOAT]

What happened is he played on some really really bad teams. Now he's got a lot of depth around him allowing him to shine to his full potential in all situations.

 

[Brown Cat]

He's the 3rd best player in the league and 2nd best playoff performer:

Makar
Mcdavid
Mackinnon

Mmm

2nd best

who's better than him in the playoffs right now?

 

[Future GOAT]

2nd best

who's better than him in the playoffs right now?

Probably Brayden Point. Possibly Kucherov. I know they're on a stacked team so their playoff numbers get buffed quite a bit but they're both great players, and Macks team is pretty stacked too.

 

[Agent Zub]

Mikko Rantanen

 

[22FUTON9]

What happened is he played on some really really bad teams. Now he's got a lot of depth around him allowing him to shine to his full potential in all situations.

Not the case at all.

those 2017-18 and 18-19 teams had terrible depth. Both on defense and on offense

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

He has talked about the psychological side, and having it finally click in that 2017-18 year. There are some interviews since his breakout where he has talked about being down on himself, and starting to accept that he would be a 50-60 point guy.

 

[Future GOAT]

Not the case at all.

those 2017-18 and 18-19 teams had terrible depth. Both on defense and on offense

Not the case at all??? but you're agreeing with me that those teams he was on, in those bad years were really bad and had like no depth?

 

[22FUTON9]

? Not the case at all, but you're agreeing with me that those teams he was on those bad years were really bad and had like no depth?

MacKinnon had his breakout in the 2017-18 season.

 

[Future GOAT]

MacKinnon had his breakout in the 2017-18 season.

Those teams weren't that bad though. I think you're exaggerating their "really bad depth" a bit.

 

[22FUTON9]

Those teams weren't that bad though. I think you're exaggerating their "really bad depth" a bit.

Those were the years when the avs were known as a one-line team with Tyson Barrie playing 21-23 minutes a game as our top-pairing guy.

our second line was something along the line of Kerfoot/Soderberg/Jost/JTC/colin Wilson even when we were healthy.
I’m not sure how that’s not terrible depth. Not a single guy you’d want in your top 6 if you’re a contender and definitely not the reason MacKinnon broke out.

 

[majormajor]

It's not because of Duchene or any teammate effect. Don't be ridiculous. Mackinnon has very obviously taken massive steps as an individual.

In his early years Mackinnon was a predictable player. He'd be flying up towards a defender in the neutral zone and you could tell which way he was going to go. You knew it and so did the defender. Or he'd enter the zone down the wing and you knew when and where he was going to shoot, and so did the goalie. All speed and not much deception.

The theme of his summer in 2017 must have been "deception" because from the beginning of the year onward he had a whole library of fakes that he didn't have before. You can't tell what he's going to do, and that makes him impossible to defend. That's why he's suddenly an MVP caliber player.

 

[Dust]

Luckily for Colorado they signed him to a contract that turned out to be a massive steal for them after one of those down years. Curious as to what Makar will get as an upcoming RFA.

 

[Iapyi]

People need to learn that NHL hockey players are not some sort of robots that get plugged in to perform. Human beings go through life phases.

Not everything is black and white and life has a lot of greys. Life has up and downs. NHL players, to repeat, are not robots.

 

[jetsforever]

Not everyone is a Crosby/McDavid who is instantly amazing.
Dr Drai also took a little while to get going.

 

[the_fan]

Roy screwed up some of MacKinnon's development. He put him at C, on wing, 3rd line etc...just all over the roster which didn't give him the chance at developing his game as a top C.