Proposal: Nate McKinnon for Auston Matthews

[Tavares to Marner]

MacKinnon is better now but he's just hitting his peak now

Matthews was better in his first 2 seasons so i think he could have a better peak so I say no

 

[Atomos2]

We re-sign him at the current market rate? I can’t really tell where you’re going with this. The next 5 years are still an incredible bargain regardless. Anyone without an extreme bias could see that.

And the Avs has just as much playoff success as the leafs did this year (effectively none), so I’d ease up a bit there.

There’s not much of a contract advantage. That’s where I’m going with this. Short term advantage (as in this year) goes to the Leafs. Long term advantage goes to the leafs. So basically there’s this 4 year window that boxes in when Mackinnon has a better contract. Doesn’t seem all that great in the comparison

 

[DoobieDubas]

You hope it’s an outlier. Leaf fans seem to be about the only people on the planet that think a former first overall pick can’t break at out 22.



We re-sign him at the current market rate? I can’t really tell where you’re going with this. The next 5 years are still an incredible bargain regardless. Anyone without an extreme bias could see that.

And the Avs has just as much playoff success as the leafs did this year (effectively none), so I’d ease up a bit there.

We think Mac can break out at 22 no problem at all especially a first overall pick like you stated.

We also think our 1st overall pick can break out at 20/21/22 potentially higher than yours based on statistics on their rookie/sophmore season. That is all we are saying. We aren't knocking your guy but we are also not knocking our guy who has had better stats and is younger.

Mac's contract is great no denying that at all.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

Yeah I dont quite get the contract comparisons either

Like as if MacKinnons contract will still be this good if/when theyre contenders

Matthews team is contenders now and his is certainly better and even when he signs next it will almost certainly be a better contract considering MacKinnons wont be for another three or four years

 

[avsfan09]

Yeah I dont quite get the contract comparisons either

Like as if MacKinnons contract will still be this good if/when theyre contenders

Matthews team is contenders now and his is certainly better and even when he signs next it will almost certainly be a better contract considering MacKinnons wont be for another three or four years

Were not that far away from our window haha. 2-3 years our window should open

 

[avsfan09]

Yeah I dont quite get the contract comparisons either

Like as if MacKinnons contract will still be this good if/when theyre contenders

Matthews team is contenders now and his is certainly better and even when he signs next it will almost certainly be a better contract considering MacKinnons wont be for another three or four years

Were not that far away from our window haha. 2-3 years our window should open

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

Were not that far away from our window haha. 2-3 years our window should open

the point still stands MacKinnon's current contract wont matter much then so folks using his contract as a stepping stone to win the argument are sort of out in left field

 

[HydroF]

Neither team does it. Avs aren't going to be interested because of Mac's contract. Might be interesting from Toronto's perspective because of the contract but look how much Toronto fans love Matthews. That matters. The franchise isnt going to look good to their fans moving their new beloved piece just to get another 1C on a cheaper deal at this point. He is a young franchise 1C and he will get paid like one, but the fans and the franchise is invested in him so I don't think anyone will have a problem with that.

 

[HydroF]

Neither team does it. Avs aren't going to be interested because of Mac's contract. Might be interesting from Toronto's perspective because of the contract but look how much Toronto fans love Matthews. That matters. The franchise isnt going to look good to their fans moving their new beloved piece just to get another 1C on a cheaper deal at this point. He is a young franchise 1C and he will get paid like one, but the fans and the franchise is invested in him so I don't think anyone will have a problem with that.

 

[Echo Roku]

the point still stands MacKinnon's current contract wont matter much then so folks using his contract as a stepping stone to win the argument are sort of out in left field

Its a discussion of trade value genius

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

There’s not much of a contract advantage. That’s where I’m going with this. Short term advantage (as in this year) goes to the Leafs. Long term advantage goes to the leafs. So basically there’s this 4 year window that boxes in when Mackinnon has a better contract. Doesn’t seem all that great in the comparison

The difference in MacKinnon's favor in that 4 year period will likely be significant, however.

Projecting it out here, say Matthews gets an Eichel-like cap % and the ceiling grows by ~$4 mil next year (average growth of the prior two years.) Say MacKinnon gets a Tavares-like cap% on his next contract and the ceiling rises by $15.2 mil over the next 5 years (what it increased by over the prior 5 year period).

Year	MacKinnon Cap	Matthews Cap	Difference
18-19	6.3	.925 - 3.775	2.525 - 5.375
19-20	6.3	11.13	4.83
20-21	6.3	11.13	4.83
21-22	6.3	11.13	4.83
22-23	6.3	11.13	4.83
23-24	13.11	11.13	1.98
24-25	13.11	11.13	1.98
25-26	13.11	11.13	1.98
26-27	13.11	11.13	1.98
	83.94	89.965 - 92.815	6.025 - 8.875

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Burgundy represents a difference in Mackinnon's favor and blue represents a difference in Matthews's favor.

 

[avsfan09]

the point still stands MacKinnon's current contract wont matter much then so folks using his contract as a stepping stone to win the argument are sort of out in left field

This is a weird way of admitting you were wrong...

 

[tucker3434]

There’s not much of a contract advantage. That’s where I’m going with this. Short term advantage (as in this year) goes to the Leafs. Long term advantage goes to the leafs. So basically there’s this 4 year window that boxes in when Mackinnon has a better contract. Doesn’t seem all that great in the comparison

4 years is a pretty long time, and the difference betweem the two will be several million. That’s big. Denying it is nothing more than spin.

We think Mac can break out at 22 no problem at all especially a first overall pick like you stated.

We also think our 1st overall pick can break out at 20/21/22 potentially higher than yours based on statistics on their rookie/sophmore season. That is all we are saying. We aren't knocking your guy but we are also not knocking our guy who has had better stats and is younger.

Mac's contract is great no denying that at all.

That isn’t exactly what everybody is saying. There are some here scoffing that MacKinon would even be mentioned in the same sentence with Matthews.

I understand your argument but I don’t think the logic is sound. Development isn’t a set path that everybody follows. Effectively using MacKinnon’s second season against him doesn’t make any sense. It was, statistically, extremely mediocre. There are tons of guys who have better sophomore seasons. Very very few will go on to be Hart finalists.

The ESP/60 and G/60 arguments make much more sense than the “my player was better than yours when they were both 19” arguments, because once they aren’t 19 anymore, who cares?

 

[avsfan09]

the point still stands MacKinnon's current contract wont matter much then so folks using his contract as a stepping stone to win the argument are sort of out in left field

This is a weird way of admitting you were wrong...

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

How am i wrong?

MacKinnon's contract likely isnt the same when Colorado is contending

Matthews will be signed to 8 years while contending

Matthews will have the better contract considering MacKinnon cant sign his for another 3/4 years (I forget the exact number), its that simple theres nothing to be 'wrong' about unless one of the players falls off

 

[Atomos2]

4 years is a pretty long time, and the difference betweem the two will be several million. That’s big. Denying it is nothing more than spin.

4 years is a long time. And 9 years is even longer

 

[biotk]

Comparison of their first two seasons:

146GP, 38G, 63A, 101Pts. 5v5P1/60: 1.46
144GP, 74G, 58A, 132Pts. 5v5p1/60: 2.22

I will take the obvious choice.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Just looking at their comparable stats its pretty black and white that matthews produced a higher rookie rate then Mackinnon did and an incredibly higher sophomore season ppg. And also higher face-off %.

Not saying he's a better player but the stats show at the same ages he most definitely was.

Sure, but development isn't linear either. It's by no means a guarantee that in 5 years from not Matthews is going to have a season as good or better then the one Mackinnon just had. He may never reach the level Mack just did last season.


In fact, it's quite likely he doesn't. 97 points in 74 games is one of the best seasons any player has had in the last decade, both in terms of total points and in points per game. If Mack was healthy all season there's a legit chance he beats McDavid for the scoring race last year and ends up just shy of or at 110 points, a feat only Crosby and Malkin have accomplished in the last 10 years.



That's not to say Mackinnon is at that level of play now either. He still has to back up what he did last season before you can start mentioning his name with that kind of company.

 

[Atomos2]

The difference in MacKinnon's favor in that 4 year period will likely be significant, however.

Projecting it out here, say Matthews gets an Eichel-like cap % and the ceiling grows by ~$4 mil next year (average growth of the prior two years.) Say MacKinnon gets a Tavares-like cap% on his next contract and the ceiling rises by $15.2 mil over the next 5 years (what it increased by over the prior 5 year period).

Year	MacKinnon Cap	Matthews Cap	Difference
18-19	6.3	.925 - 3.775	2.525 - 5.375
19-20	6.3	11.13	4.83
20-21	6.3	11.13	4.83
21-22	6.3	11.13	4.83
22-23	6.3	11.13	4.83
23-24	13.11	11.13	1.98
24-25	13.11	11.13	1.98
25-26	13.11	11.13	1.98
26-27	13.11	11.13	1.98
	83.94	89.965 - 92.815	6.025 - 8.875

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Burgundy represents a difference in Mackinnon's favor and blue represents a difference in Matthews's favor.

That's good for cap value but there's a shit ton of assumptions in that analysis. And longevity is another significant factor that's being overlooked. Won't Mack be a UFA? Why would he take a Tavares-like homecoming discount? Is he playing for his hometown? Is he not gonna explore the market like Tavares did?

Anyway that 4 year window is the only thing going. It's a great contract no doubt, but it's a relatively small window where they have him controlled. After that, UFA status rears its ugly head and like the Tavares situation, there's a legit level of uncertainty. I'm ok with Leafs buying an extra 4 more years of Matthews contract til he's like 29. Again not much of a contract advantage except for those 4 precious years that the Avs would need to capitalize on.

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

Matthews has the ability to be a 110-120 point player in a single season.

Maybe on Nhl 18.

 

[RadekBong]

"no agenda"

 

[RadekBong]

"no agenda"

 

[a mangy Meowth]

"no agenda"

He lasted all the way to the 2nd page

 

[KDOTO]

And it took Tavares 5 years to be PPG+ too but let's not talk about that

yeah and if this was a thread about jt at the time he go his firstt ppg, it be the same answer. Jt and mck are players that are similar trajectory wise. Am is trending to be alot better then they were before they broke out. I wouldnt trade jt for am and jt had a great contract then too. also lets see a repeat before we call mck this top 5 players, not long ago people were picking jd ahead of him.

 

[connormcmuffin]

 

[connormcmuffin]

Comparison of their first two seasons:

146GP, 38G, 63A, 101Pts. 5v5P1/60: 1.46
144GP, 74G, 58A, 132Pts. 5v5p1/60: 2.22

I will take the obvious choice.

Yeah but let's be honest, Avs say no because small markets can't afford a world class player like Matthews.

"no agenda"

Please define my agenda, having a side =/= agenda and I'm open to a good argument but failed to read one yet. Lots of boring personal attacks though.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

That's good for cap value but there's a **** ton of assumptions in that analysis. And longevity is another significant factor that's being overlooked. Won't Mack be a UFA? Why would he take a Tavares-like homecoming discount? Is he playing for his hometown? Is he not gonna explore the market like Tavares did?

Anyway that 4 year window is the only thing going. It's a great contract no doubt, but it's a relatively small window where they have him controlled. After that, UFA status rears its ugly head and like the Tavares situation, there's a legit level of uncertainty. I'm ok with Leafs buying an extra 4 more years of Matthews contract til he's like 29. Again not much of a contract advantage except for those 4 precious years that the Avs would need to capitalize on.

I don’t have a dog in this fight. I’m neither a fan nor hater of the Avs or Leafs. I tried to make objective assumptions about contracts and cap growth.

I used JT as he’s the latest big money forward to sign a his 1st UFA contract. Tavares reportedly did leave money on the table, but he didn’t give the Leafs that much of a discount, relative to his peers. Kane, Toews, Kopitar, Crosby and Malkin are the only forwards in the league that are currently under their 1st UFA contracts that accounted for a greater percentage of the cap at the time of signing. The likes of Benn, Perry, Stamkos, Getzlaf and Kessel fall underneath Tavares.

If you think MacKinnon goes for the 15% tier, add in an extra mil or so to the final four years of that frame. He still comes out ahead.

Control is a fair point, though. Tavares was the highest profile departure we’ve seen in a half decade plus. I want to see more of that ilk before taking that threat too seriously. That could certainly happen with Karlsson and Panarin looking uncertain.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Comparison of their first two seasons:

146GP, 38G, 63A, 101Pts. 5v5P1/60: 1.46
144GP, 74G, 58A, 132Pts. 5v5p1/60: 2.22

I will take the obvious choice.

Matthews started his NHL career almost a full year (348 days) older than MacKinnon was when he started his, wasn't expected to drag the corpse of Jarome Iginla up and down the ice with him his sophomore year, and plays for one of the best coaches in recent NHL history. But, I'm sure none of that had anything to do with the disparity in production over their first two seasons, right?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Comparison of their first two seasons:

146GP, 38G, 63A, 101Pts. 5v5P1/60: 1.46
144GP, 74G, 58A, 132Pts. 5v5p1/60: 2.22

I will take the obvious choice.

Matthews started his NHL career almost a full year (348 days) older than MacKinnon was when he started his, wasn't expected to drag the corpse of Jarome Iginla up and down the ice with him his sophomore year, and plays for one of the best coaches in recent NHL history. But, I'm sure none of that had anything to do with the disparity in production over their first two seasons, right?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Yeah but let's be honest, Avs say no because small markets can't afford a world class player like Matthews.



Please define my agenda, having a side =/= agenda and I'm open to a good argument but failed to read one yet. Lots of boring personal attacks though.

Avs ownership has Walmart money. They could buy the Leafs if they wanted to.