Series Talk: Nashville Predators (6) vs Arizona Coyotes (11)

[GoldOnGold]

On the topic of Rinne, earlier today I read this interesting examination of his struggles this season:

"Much was made of Pekka Rinne’s struggles this season, and on the surface his .895 save percentage at 37 years of age would make you assume that he’s fallen down the proverbial elevator shaft.

The truth is Rinne’s struggles have been extremely odd this season, because they’ve only come from one specific area. At 5-on-5, among the 35 goaltenders who have played at least 1,500 minutes in 2019-20, Rinne finished tied for sixth in save percentage from the inner slot with a stellar .825, 10th in slot save percentage at .854, and middle of the pack overall at 18th with a .923. So why is his overall save percentage so low?

It’s because, from the inner slot in shorthanded situations, Rinne has posted the worst save percentage in the league by a drastic margin. The tiny fraction of shots Rinne has faced from that area in shorthanded situations drops his numbers from respectable to terrible. We have to look at all shots a goalie faces to properly evaluate them, but this is such an egregious outlier that it’s hard to believe it will continue. In just 36 shots faced from the inner slot while his team was shorthanded, Rinne allowed 16 goals, 15 per cent of all the goals he allowed this season. Outside of that area, Rinne was decidedly above league average. We can’t discount those results, but it seems unlikely he would struggle that much.

Considering there are fewer power plays in the playoffs as well don’t be surprised that, if Rinne plays, he gives the Predators a good chance."

Five stats-based predictions for the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs - Sportsnet.ca

 

[PredsV82]

On the topic of Rinne, earlier today I read this interesting examination of his struggles this season:

"Much was made of Pekka Rinne’s struggles this season, and on the surface his .895 save percentage at 37 years of age would make you assume that he’s fallen down the proverbial elevator shaft.

The truth is Rinne’s struggles have been extremely odd this season, because they’ve only come from one specific area. At 5-on-5, among the 35 goaltenders who have played at least 1,500 minutes in 2019-20, Rinne finished tied for sixth in save percentage from the inner slot with a stellar .825, 10th in slot save percentage at .854, and middle of the pack overall at 18th with a .923. So why is his overall save percentage so low?

It’s because, from the inner slot in shorthanded situations, Rinne has posted the worst save percentage in the league by a drastic margin. The tiny fraction of shots Rinne has faced from that area in shorthanded situations drops his numbers from respectable to terrible. We have to look at all shots a goalie faces to properly evaluate them, but this is such an egregious outlier that it’s hard to believe it will continue. In just 36 shots faced from the inner slot while his team was shorthanded, Rinne allowed 16 goals, 15 per cent of all the goals he allowed this season. Outside of that area, Rinne was decidedly above league average. We can’t discount those results, but it seems unlikely he would struggle that much.

Considering there are fewer power plays in the playoffs as well don’t be surprised that, if Rinne plays, he gives the Predators a good chance."

Five stats-based predictions for the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs - Sportsnet.ca

And thus the problem with the PK this season was as much or more Rinne as it was the skaters on the PK. (Or maybe the system that for whatever reason allowed these shots). Youd have to think that if this data is available to Hynes he is going to make sure the PK focuses on keeping the puck out of the slot...

 

[Armourboy]

And thus the problem with the PK this season was as much or more Rinne as it was the skaters on the PK. (Or maybe the system that for whatever reason allowed these shots). Youd have to think that if this data is available to Hynes he is going to make sure the PK focuses on keeping the puck out of the slot...

Well I don't take the blame off the goalies, but that PK they were running at the start of the season was beyond bad. There were times where it looked like the 4 guys on the ice weren't covering a thing.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Well I don't take the blame off the goalies, but that PK they were running at the start of the season was beyond bad. There were times where it looked like the 4 guys on the ice weren't covering a thing.

Give them a break....they were covering the ice....under their skates.

 

[Armourboy]

Give them a break....they were covering the ice....under their skates.

There were times I'm not sure they were doing that.

 

[Armourboy]

Someone refresh my memory. Was Kuemper some great goalie before this short stretch before he got injured this season? I recall him being more of a journeyman kind of guy but it's almost like he has been a top level goalie prior the way people are talking.

 

[PainForShane]

Hey there Coyotes season ticket holder here really interesting to read your posts. It sounds like you are more optimistic about our chances than we are! I’ll take it but we’ll see what happens in a week or two.

Regarding the Yotes, we play very good team defense (esp our bottom six), but all our offense runs through our top line (Hall, Dvorak, Garland), aside from that we have barely scored this season. Kuemper and Raanta are both well above average NHL goalies but they look better than they are because we don’t allow many good scoring chances. Obvi Peks and Saaros are good too so I think it’s more a matter of which goalies can get and stay hot during the best of 5.

At a high level IMO it’s a matter of whether your team can generate / convert scoring chances against our team D (very possible given your mobile defensemen) and whether we can get any secondary scoring. Goaltending will of course be a big part of determining that.

Looking fwd to seeing the games, lmk any questions happy to answer them as best I can

 

[PredsV82]

Someone refresh my memory. Was Kuemper some great goalie before this short stretch before he got injured this season? I recall him being more of a journeyman kind of guy but it's almost like he has been a top level goalie prior the way people are talking.

Keumper was pretty good but couldnt beat out Dubnyk in Minny, but I wouldnt call him a "journeyman". Most likely hes benefitting from Arizonas system.

 

[czechczech]

Coyotes GM resigns - Anyone know what is behind this news ? And how did I not know that Steve Sullivan was Asst General Manager of the Coyotes.

Coyotes GM Chayka resigns ahead of postseason

 

[PredsV82]

Coyotes GM resigns - Anyone know what is behind this news ? And how did I not know that Steve Sullivan was Asst General Manager of the Coyotes.

Coyotes GM Chayka resigns ahead of postseason

That's a pretty bad situation all around. Team statement saying Chayka "quit" on the team Chayka saying ownership made it impossible for him to continue.

Hes basically the Billy Beane of hockey. Will be interesting to see where he lands.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Coyotes GM resigns - Anyone know what is behind this news ? And how did I not know that Steve Sullivan was Asst General Manager of the Coyotes.

Coyotes GM Chayka resigns ahead of postseason

From what I heard on 31 thoughts, Chayka was offered a job with a higher job title, Yotes lowballed him. Rumor is that the sports conglomerate that owns the Devils made him an offer to be a part of their 4 teams, (position above President) Yotes became angry.

 

[PredsV82]

From what I heard on 31 thoughts, Chayka was offered a job with a higher job title, Yotes lowballed him. Rumor is that the sports conglomerate that owns the Devils made him an offer to be a part of their 4 teams, (position above President) Yotes became angry.

And apparently that position is no longer available so hes just out of a job now...

 

[Armourboy]

I think there was more to it than the job offer. They also apparently had dinner with Hall where numbers were discussed and he was not included. Last thing you need as a GM is the ownership group going around you.

 

[BigFatCat999]

And apparently that position is no longer available so hes just out of a job now...

So, another thing on 31 thoughts, Scott Walker is with the Yotes as well....How many ex-Preds do they need?

 

[glenngineer]

If this becomes a war of attrition, I honestly like the Preds chances. Rinne/Saros, Ingram (please note that other team's SHOULD have attrition too). Washington might be FUBARed goalie wise already. Yes, Holtby but after him is Pheonix Copley

Why would they not take Samsonov?

 

[glenngineer]

Hey there Coyotes season ticket holder here really interesting to read your posts. It sounds like you are more optimistic about our chances than we are! I’ll take it but we’ll see what happens in a week or two.

Regarding the Yotes, we play very good team defense (esp our bottom six), but all our offense runs through our top line (Hall, Dvorak, Garland), aside from that we have barely scored this season. Kuemper and Raanta are both well above average NHL goalies but they look better than they are because we don’t allow many good scoring chances. Obvi Peks and Saaros are good too so I think it’s more a matter of which goalies can get and stay hot during the best of 5.

At a high level IMO it’s a matter of whether your team can generate / convert scoring chances against our team D (very possible given your mobile defensemen) and whether we can get any secondary scoring. Goaltending will of course be a big part of determining that.

Looking fwd to seeing the games, lmk any questions happy to answer them as best I can

I think the one thing that gives us fits from Arizona is your team speed. Carolina also has given us fits the last few years. That's what I'd like to see us shut down. If we do that, I feel confident we can win the series. If not, I think you guys take us.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Why would they not take Samsonov?

Injuried before camp

 

[PainForShane]

I think the one thing that gives us fits from Arizona is your team speed. Carolina also has given us fits the last few years. That's what I'd like to see us shut down. If we do that, I feel confident we can win the series. If not, I think you guys take us.

Yeah that's a good point. We're pretty inept in the offensive zone but decent on the rush, also rumor has it that Keller is flying during camp. We play Vegas in an exhibition tomorrow, if we're about as fast as them I can see where you're coming from.

It's crazy how easy it is to take your own team for granted, thanks for bringing that up

 

[PainForShane]

Also speaking of taking your own team for granted, I am very concerned with we are going to stop Josi if he gets going. He is so much stronger both on and off the puck than we are (except for Garland, Crouse) -- Garland / Josi battle in your D zone should be interesting to watch. Garland's our heart and soul / greasy area guy but he's like 4 foot 2, he generally outmuscles opposing D but Josi seems like he's on a completely different level.

Also in case you've taken Josi for granted he's one of Scheifele's toughest 5 players to play against. Am sure you've all seen this article by now but maybe worth re-posting

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/mark-scheifele-top-5-nhl

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Also speaking of taking your own team for granted, I am very concerned with we are going to stop Josi if he gets going. He is so much stronger both on and off the puck than we are (except for Garland, Crouse) -- Garland / Josi battle in your D zone should be interesting to watch. Garland's our heart and soul / greasy area guy but he's like 4 foot 2, he generally outmuscles opposing D but Josi seems like he's on a completely different level.

Also in case you've taken Josi for granted he's one of Scheifele's toughest 5 players to play against. Am sure you've all seen this article by now but maybe worth re-posting

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/mark-scheifele-top-5-nhl

That's a weird take to me. I tend to find Josi to be sort of generally-smart in terms of active stick and positioning, but he definitely sits in the bush a lot and players can usually beat him along the boards, in front of the net, if they put any kind of battle into it. Josi is smart, but overall not particularly effective in his own zone, if you ask me. He's not an outright liability like some offense-minded defensemen are. But there's just no way he gives opposing forwards much trouble. I would say Winnipeg, Dallas, and Colorado should know this better than pretty much any teams around, since they basically ate the Josi-Ellis pairing for lunch any time they got a chance to in the last couple playoff seasons.

But it's size and physicality that works against him, moreso than speed. So in that sense, I think he should be fine against the Coyotes. It's some of the other teams with heavier top line players that really gave him fits.

 

[PainForShane]

That's a weird take to me. I tend to find Josi to be sort of generally-smart in terms of active stick and positioning, but he definitely sits in the bush a lot and players can usually beat him along the boards, in front of the net, if they put any kind of battle into it. Josi is smart, but overall not particularly effective in his own zone, if you ask me. He's not an outright liability like some offense-minded defensemen are. But there's just no way he gives opposing forwards much trouble. I would say Winnipeg, Dallas, and Colorado should know this better than pretty much any teams around, since they basically ate the Josi-Ellis pairing for lunch any time they got a chance to in the last couple playoff seasons.

But it's size and physicality that works against him, moreso than speed. So in that sense, I think he should be fine against the Coyotes. It's some of the other teams with heavier top line players that really gave him fits.

Glad I'm posting here, different opinions on players and you guys obviously know Josi very well. To my in-person eyes he seems like a slightly more physical Drew Doughty type, certainly doesn't seem like one of the 5 toughest players to play against in the entire league. Also like you said Winnipeg knows his game so I have to value Scheifele's opinion that "Josi is just a pain in the butt to play against" and will "beat you senseless for the 30 seconds you’re in their zone" etc.

If Scheifele's right most Yotes won't be able to take the abuse over 1 game let alone 5. Garland's essentially the only one who might hence the importance of that matchup

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Josi just crosschecks a LOT. He's not really a physical player.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Josi just crosschecks a LOT. He's not really a physical player.

Yeah, he kind of stands back and gives those little shoves, but he's basically waiting for the opponent to make a move that he can then try to counter with his stick, not normally going in and outright trying to outmuscle a player to win a battle.

And that makes sense for the player he is, and generally works ok. I do not have any problem whatsoever with him taking that approach. What stands out more to me is how it gets us in trouble when basically BOTH the D on that top pairing are more passive like this. It's not the wrong style for either of Josi or Ellis. But it does tend to leave us outmatched physically when they are both playing 25 minutes a night in all situations as a pair together, that's all.

 

[TJW]

Yotes are looking a mess in this exhibition game...

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Yotes are looking a mess in this exhibition game...

Yep, not that it means anything about the series but it does give a fan a little hope.