Narrative Analysis: Leafs D sucks & goalie saves them

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by zeke, Dec 27, 2018.

  1. zeke

    zeke The Dube Abides

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    spoiler alert:
     
  2. zeke

    zeke The Dube Abides

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    Update:

    Shots Against Per Game

    4.NSH 28.5
    15.BOS 31.4
    20.WSH 32.0
    22.WPG 32.4
    23.TOR 32.5
    24.TBL 32.5
    25.PIT 33.0

    Save Percentage

    3.BOS 91.70
    6.TOR 91.40
    7.PIT 91.29
    8.WPG 91.28
    9.NSH 91.20
    10.TBL 90.99
    11.WSH 90.87

    Goals Against Per Game

    1.NSH 2.51
    3.BOS 2.63
    7.TOR 2.79
    10.WPG 2.82
    12.PIT 2.88
    15.WSH 2.92
    16.TBL 2.92
     
  3. Pookie

    Pookie It was a pleasure doing business with you

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    Who cares if he is hurt? Andersen’s GP tots would be higher if he wasn’t. Unless you believe Babcock would have tapped Sparks in 4 straight games.

    Weird Defense.

    Just out of curiosity, if it bothers you so much, why wouldn’t you call out zeke for only listing a handful of contenders in his flawed shots against and goaltending averages?

    When I listed SCA, CA/60 and xGA I listed every team.

    We give up way more chances and rely on scoring and goaltending to win games.

    This is where the facts lead us.
     
  4. JT AM da real deal

    JT AM da real deal Registered User

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    I really hope you are right about that. I wanna beleaf Freddy is the guy. But we need a goalie hopefully Freddy who can make the big game playoff saves. I am not ready to throw him under the bus. But this is my mind is his last kick at the playoff can to get us past round 1. If weird stuff happens again in round 1 then I come off the bus. Three strikes and your out.
     
  5. nsleaf

    nsleaf Registered User

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    No worries, you can always get back on!
     
  6. razkaz

    razkaz Registered User

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    I don't think you quite get it. I am saying that Vasilevskiy was hurt and that's why his GP totals are lower than Andersen's. You're focusing on the wrong goalie here. I'll be clear, Andersen is not heavily overused compared to his counterparts and have provided evidence suggesting so. If you want to continue to make the claim without backing it up with facts then I'm afraid you're going to come off as an ill informed poster who spouts non sense and more often than not, people will dismiss your posts. Not trying to be a dick about it, I'm genuinely trying to have a conversation.

    The argument I used for you was the same for Zeke. I don't think the advanced stats paint the clear picture on where the defensive struggles are. I don't think it's because of reliance on Andersen and his performance, I put the defensive woes squarely on the teams inability to clear the D zone cleanly and their poor defensive play when the other team cycles the puck.
     
  7. Gary Nylund

    Gary Nylund Registered User

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    I sort of get where you're coming from but I think it's too early to say that it's Freddie's last chance or anything like that. He played well against WSH and I dunno, mebbe have a look at that goal again, it really looks like he was screened by Rielly I mean I can't say 100% for sure that that wasn't on him but it certainly looks like he was screened so he gets the benefit of the doubt for sure.

    Let's think positive thoughts and hope that by May, nobody's even thinking about the yips when it comes to Freddie. I feel pretty good about him despite last spring, better than I've felt about one of our goalies in a very long time and I don't even want to think about going back to the drawing board considering how hard it can be to find a good one. Freddie's the man and we're winning 1+ cups with him, that's my story and I'm sticking to it. :)
     
  8. JT AM da real deal

    JT AM da real deal Registered User

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    I am in the same spot too. I am rooting for him every game. We gotta beleaf. And he is all we got at this point.
     
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  9. Pookie

    Pookie It was a pleasure doing business with you

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    You’ve explained the reason that the GP is lower. And the reason the GP for the rest will catch Andersen is that he is injured now too.

    The underlying numbers don’t care why. They just are different because they are.

    Ironic.
     
  10. razkaz

    razkaz Registered User

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    So you make a claim that Andersen is being overused and give a bad example of it. I explained why that argument was bad with stats and facts and asked if you have any other evidence to suggest why tyoud make that claim. Then you come back with this garbage. Looks like you're that type of poster who will just spew garbage with nothing to back it up. Good to know
     
  11. Pookie

    Pookie It was a pleasure doing business with you

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    Sigh. If you can’t grasp the overall concept that Andersen’s play makes up for a D that should be giving up more goals... can’t help you.

    The GP example is just one factor... using the teams zeke did, it’s valid.

    I used SCA, XGA and CF/60 across all teams. All of which suggest the conclusion that our D is weak.

    Can’t help you mate.

    Our D is weak. Offense and goaltending drive this team. That’s what the facts and eye test say.

    End story.
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2019
  12. zeke

    zeke The Dube Abides

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    Update:

    Shots Against

    5.NSH 28.7
    18.BOS 31.5
    21.WSH 32.2
    22.WPG 32.4
    23.TOR 32.4
    24.TBL 32.4
    25.PIT 33.3


    Save Percentage

    2.BOS 91.70
    6.PIT 91.50
    7.TOR 91.50
    8.NSH 91.27
    9.WPG 91.20
    10.TBL 90.90
    11.WSH 90.83


    Goals Against

    1.NSH 2.51
    3.BOS 2.62
    6.TOR 2.76
    8.PIT 2.80
    12.WPG 2.85
    15.WSH 2.95
    16.TBL 2.95
     
  13. Pi

    Pi Registered User

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    How is Tampa a cup contender? They are bad defensively.

    Defense wins Cups right? Or is that no longer the case?
     
    stickty111 likes this.
  14. Joey Hoser

    Joey Hoser Registered User

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    7-3-1 while being carried and saved by the spectacular goaltending of Sparks and Hutchinson.
     
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  15. lebdafor norris

    lebdafor norris sleepy

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    WASH last year won the cup with a ~bottom 5 defence, according to SCA/60, xGA/60, CA/60 and HDCA/60. So winning the Cup with a questionable D is very possible in today's game.
     
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  16. Liminality

    Liminality Registered User

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    Apparently we've been trending in the right direction lately too.

     
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  17. Pookie

    Pookie It was a pleasure doing business with you

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    If 8 games is a trend... I'm so confused as to what counts as far as reliable data.

    BTW... SCA is down slightly too which is good. 174 SCA in those 8 games and if we break up the season into 8 game segments (working backwards I guess) we have an average of 21.75 SCA in those 8 games.

    Identical to the 8 game segment from Oct -24 to Nov 11 but lower than the previous 8 games of 24.5.

    D needs to step up with the meal ticket injured.

    Playing the Devils, Panthers, Rangers, Wings, Wild and Canucks didn't hurt vs the Sharks, Sabres, Bruins, Lightning in the previous 8. Context and all that.
     
  18. Pi

    Pi Registered User

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    Leafs have swept the Sharks and the Jets this season.
     
  19. Jozay

    Jozay Registered User

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    The right side of the D does suck. Hainsey, Zaitsev and Oz would get destroyed against Tampa.
     
  20. Pookie

    Pookie It was a pleasure doing business with you

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    Yes they have.

    I'm missing your point.....?
     
  21. Stephen

    Stephen Registered User

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    The Ducks feel like the overrated control in terms of comparisons with the Leafs. I think Leafs Nation has spent so many years drooling over Montour, Manson, Theodore (when he was a Duck) as surplus guys who were attainable or Lindholm as the more well rounded Rielly, and Fowler as the Gardiner who could play defense that we think they're much better than they are.
     
  22. Vaive50

    Vaive50 Registered User

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    Anyone notice that the Leafs have 6 players in the leagues top 25 in the +/- rating and 3 of them are in the top 8 (all defensemen) and number 8 is Gardiner with a +21. I don't remember us doing so good in that category since way back in the early 2000's.
     
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  23. Gallagbi

    Gallagbi Formerly Eazy_B97

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    Is that their combined record?
     
  24. apollo678

    apollo678 Registered User

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    While I do think our defense is pretty good, adding a top 4 right D (Pietrangelo) would be amazing.
    I'd go Rielly/Gardiner, Dermott/Pietrangelo. Lots of puck moving ability on both sides.
     
  25. JT AM da real deal

    JT AM da real deal Registered User

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    Again team needs to focus on finishing ahead of Boston so we get home ice advantage this year and then figuring out a way of getting past Boston in round 1. The way I look at it is we have the same defense as last season and same goalie. Our forwards with Tavares are better. So we gotta hope with home ice we can take them. But I still worry we have no ability against Boston to withstand a heavy forecheck and then when we lose puck no ability to get it back when they cycle. I would like a couple D who are a little bigger who can take a heavy check into the boards and still maintain puck possession. Seeing Rielly on his butt and Gards chickening out last year in Boston was disheartening. Rielly especially needs someone with him who is faster and stronger than Hainsey (who does his best but ...) who can help on forecheck and cycle. Those 2 guys can play 30 minutes a night and I think we get through Boston. Even McQuaid with Gards on 2nd unit may give Gards some courage.
     

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