Narrative Analysis: Leafs D sucks & goalie saves them

[zeke]

Is this a serious reply?

spoiler alert:

 

[zeke]

Update:

Shots Against Per Game

4.NSH 28.5
15.BOS 31.4
20.WSH 32.0
22.WPG 32.4
23.TOR 32.5
24.TBL 32.5
25.PIT 33.0

Save Percentage

3.BOS 91.70
6.TOR 91.40
7.PIT 91.29
8.WPG 91.28
9.NSH 91.20
10.TBL 90.99
11.WSH 90.87

Goals Against Per Game

1.NSH 2.51
3.BOS 2.63
7.TOR 2.79
10.WPG 2.82
12.PIT 2.88
15.WSH 2.92
16.TBL 2.92

 

[Pookie]

Is this a serious reply? I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and I'll break it down.

Looking at the division leaders right now.

Metropolitan
1. WSH Holtby 27 GP
2. PIT Murray 17 GP (Missed 10 Games due to injury)
3. CLB Bobrovsky 29 GP

Atlantic
1. TBL Vasilevskiy 20 GP (Missed 14 Games due to injury)
2. TOR Andersen 30 GP (Missed 2 games due to injury)
3. BOS Rask 20 GP (Boston has been back and forth on starting goalie because early in the season Rask was crap and Halak was performing better)

Central
1. WPG Hellebuyck 30 GP
2. NSH Rinne 29 GP
3. DAL Bishop 26 GP (Missed 5 Games due to injury)

Pacific
1. CGY Smith 22 GP (Missed 1 Game due to injury but the real reason he hasn't played more is because Rittich took over that job)
2. VGK Fleury 37 GP
3. SJS Jones 30 GP

So based on Games Played and seeing how much time other goalies have missed because of injuries, not resting to be saved for playoffs, how is Andersen more "heavily used" vs his counterparts? Like I said previously, the reason I didn't put those other goalies is because those teams have had goaltending issues and has nothing to do with a trying to paint a different narrative.

You were the one trying to paint the picture of heavy usage for Andersen when you made this quote:

I then called you out saying that's not a fair comparison since Vasi was hurt so that's why he has the low number of games played. So either show us why you think Andersen is more heavily used compared to his counterparts or admit you're the one trying to push this narrative to dismiss your previous argument that we rely more on Andersen vs other "contenders".

Who cares if he is hurt? Andersen’s GP tots would be higher if he wasn’t. Unless you believe Babcock would have tapped Sparks in 4 straight games.

Weird Defense.

Just out of curiosity, if it bothers you so much, why wouldn’t you call out zeke for only listing a handful of contenders in his flawed shots against and goaltending averages?

When I listed SCA, CA/60 and xGA I listed every team.

We give up way more chances and rely on scoring and goaltending to win games.

This is where the facts lead us.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Disagree. Just to be sure I watched it again and it seems pretty clear that he didn't see the puck when it was shot as Rielly was moving in front of him.

I really hope you are right about that. I wanna beleaf Freddy is the guy. But we need a goalie hopefully Freddy who can make the big game playoff saves. I am not ready to throw him under the bus. But this is my mind is his last kick at the playoff can to get us past round 1. If weird stuff happens again in round 1 then I come off the bus. Three strikes and your out.

 

[nsleaf]

I really hope you are right about that. I wanna beleaf Freddy is the guy. But we need a goalie hopefully Freddy who can make the big game playoff saves. I am not ready to throw him under the bus. But this is my mind is his last kick at the playoff can to get us past round 1. If weird stuff happens again in round 1 then I come off the bus. Three strikes and your out.

No worries, you can always get back on!

 

[razkaz]

Who cares if he is hurt? Andersen’s GP tots would be higher if he wasn’t. Unless you believe Babcock would have tapped Sparks in 4 straight games.

Weird Defense.

Just out of curiosity, if it bothers you so much, why wouldn’t you call out zeke for only listing a handful of contenders in his flawed shots against and goaltending averages?

When I listed SCA, CA/60 and xGA I listed every team.

We give up way more chances and rely on scoring and goaltending to win games.

This is where the facts lead us.

I don't think you quite get it. I am saying that Vasilevskiy was hurt and that's why his GP totals are lower than Andersen's. You're focusing on the wrong goalie here. I'll be clear, Andersen is not heavily overused compared to his counterparts and have provided evidence suggesting so. If you want to continue to make the claim without backing it up with facts then I'm afraid you're going to come off as an ill informed poster who spouts non sense and more often than not, people will dismiss your posts. Not trying to be a dick about it, I'm genuinely trying to have a conversation.

The argument I used for you was the same for Zeke. I don't think the advanced stats paint the clear picture on where the defensive struggles are. I don't think it's because of reliance on Andersen and his performance, I put the defensive woes squarely on the teams inability to clear the D zone cleanly and their poor defensive play when the other team cycles the puck.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I really hope you are right about that. I wanna beleaf Freddy is the guy. But we need a goalie hopefully Freddy who can make the big game playoff saves. I am not ready to throw him under the bus. But this is my mind is his last kick at the playoff can to get us past round 1. If weird stuff happens again in round 1 then I come off the bus. Three strikes and your out.

I sort of get where you're coming from but I think it's too early to say that it's Freddie's last chance or anything like that. He played well against WSH and I dunno, mebbe have a look at that goal again, it really looks like he was screened by Rielly I mean I can't say 100% for sure that that wasn't on him but it certainly looks like he was screened so he gets the benefit of the doubt for sure.

Let's think positive thoughts and hope that by May, nobody's even thinking about the yips when it comes to Freddie. I feel pretty good about him despite last spring, better than I've felt about one of our goalies in a very long time and I don't even want to think about going back to the drawing board considering how hard it can be to find a good one. Freddie's the man and we're winning 1+ cups with him, that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I sort of get where you're coming from but I think it's too early to say that it's Freddie's last chance or anything like that. He played well against WSH and I dunno, mebbe have a look at that goal again, it really looks like he was screened by Rielly I mean I can't say 100% for sure that that wasn't on him but it certainly looks like he was screened so he gets the benefit of the doubt for sure.

Let's think positive thoughts and hope that by May, nobody's even thinking about the yips when it comes to Freddie. I feel pretty good about him despite last spring, better than I've felt about one of our goalies in a very long time and I don't even want to think about going back to the drawing board considering how hard it can be to find a good one. Freddie's the man and we're winning 1+ cups with him, that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

I am in the same spot too. I am rooting for him every game. We gotta beleaf. And he is all we got at this point.

 

[Pookie]

I don't think you quite get it. I am saying that Vasilevskiy was hurt and that's why his GP totals are lower than Andersen's. You're focusing on the wrong goalie here. I'll be clear, Andersen is not heavily overused compared to his counterparts and have provided evidence suggesting so. If you want to continue to make the claim without backing it up with facts then I'm afraid you're going to come off as an ill informed poster who spouts non sense and more often than not, people will dismiss your posts. Not trying to be a dick about it, I'm genuinely trying to have a conversation.

The argument I used for you was the same for Zeke. I don't think the advanced stats paint the clear picture on where the defensive struggles are. I don't think it's because of reliance on Andersen and his performance, I put the defensive woes squarely on the teams inability to clear the D zone cleanly and their poor defensive play when the other team cycles the puck.

You’ve explained the reason that the GP is lower. And the reason the GP for the rest will catch Andersen is that he is injured now too.

The underlying numbers don’t care why. They just are different because they are.

Ironic.

 

[razkaz]

You’ve explained the reason that the GP is lower. And the reason the GP for the rest will catch Andersen is that he is injured now too.

The underlying numbers don’t care why. They just are different because they are.

Ironic.

So you make a claim that Andersen is being overused and give a bad example of it. I explained why that argument was bad with stats and facts and asked if you have any other evidence to suggest why tyoud make that claim. Then you come back with this garbage. Looks like you're that type of poster who will just spew garbage with nothing to back it up. Good to know

 

[Pookie]

So you make a claim that Andersen is being overused and give a bad example of it. I explained why that argument was bad with stats and facts and asked if you have any other evidence to suggest why tyoud make that claim. Then you come back with this garbage. Looks like you're that type of poster who will just spew garbage with nothing to back it up. Good to know

Sigh. If you can’t grasp the overall concept that Andersen’s play makes up for a D that should be giving up more goals... can’t help you.

The GP example is just one factor... using the teams zeke did, it’s valid.

I used SCA, XGA and CF/60 across all teams. All of which suggest the conclusion that our D is weak.

Can’t help you mate.

Our D is weak. Offense and goaltending drive this team. That’s what the facts and eye test say.

End story.

 

[zeke]

Update:

Shots Against

5.NSH 28.7
18.BOS 31.5
21.WSH 32.2
22.WPG 32.4
23.TOR 32.4
24.TBL 32.4
25.PIT 33.3


Save Percentage

2.BOS 91.70
6.PIT 91.50
7.TOR 91.50
8.NSH 91.27
9.WPG 91.20
10.TBL 90.90
11.WSH 90.83


Goals Against

1.NSH 2.51
3.BOS 2.62
6.TOR 2.76
8.PIT 2.80
12.WPG 2.85
15.WSH 2.95
16.TBL 2.95

 

[Pi]

Update:

Shots Against

5.NSH 28.7
18.BOS 31.5
21.WSH 32.2
22.WPG 32.4
23.TOR 32.4
24.TBL 32.4
25.PIT 33.3


Save Percentage

2.BOS 91.70
6.PIT 91.50
7.TOR 91.50
8.NSH 91.27
9.WPG 91.20
10.TBL 90.90
11.WSH 90.83


Goals Against

1.NSH 2.51
3.BOS 2.62
6.TOR 2.76
8.PIT 2.80
12.WPG 2.85
15.WSH 2.95
16.TBL 2.95

How is Tampa a cup contender? They are bad defensively.

Defense wins Cups right? Or is that no longer the case?

 

[Joey Hoser]

7-3-1 while being carried and saved by the spectacular goaltending of Sparks and Hutchinson.

 

[lebdafor norris]

How is Tampa a cup contender? They are bad defensively.

Defense wins Cups right? Or is that no longer the case?

WASH last year won the cup with a ~bottom 5 defence, according to SCA/60, xGA/60, CA/60 and HDCA/60. So winning the Cup with a questionable D is very possible in today's game.

 

[Liminality]

Update:

Shots Against

5.NSH 28.7
18.BOS 31.5
21.WSH 32.2
22.WPG 32.4
23.TOR 32.4
24.TBL 32.4
25.PIT 33.3


Save Percentage

2.BOS 91.70
6.PIT 91.50
7.TOR 91.50
8.NSH 91.27
9.WPG 91.20
10.TBL 90.90
11.WSH 90.83


Goals Against

1.NSH 2.51
3.BOS 2.62
6.TOR 2.76
8.PIT 2.80
12.WPG 2.85
15.WSH 2.95
16.TBL 2.95

Apparently we've been trending in the right direction lately too.

 

[Pookie]

Apparently we've been trending in the right direction lately too.

If 8 games is a trend... I'm so confused as to what counts as far as reliable data.

BTW... SCA is down slightly too which is good. 174 SCA in those 8 games and if we break up the season into 8 game segments (working backwards I guess) we have an average of 21.75 SCA in those 8 games.

Identical to the 8 game segment from Oct -24 to Nov 11 but lower than the previous 8 games of 24.5.

D needs to step up with the meal ticket injured.

Playing the Devils, Panthers, Rangers, Wings, Wild and Canucks didn't hurt vs the Sharks, Sabres, Bruins, Lightning in the previous 8. Context and all that.

 

[Pi]

If 8 games is a trend... I'm so confused as to what counts as far as reliable data.

BTW... SCA is down slightly too which is good. 174 SCA in those 8 games and if we break up the season into 8 game segments (working backwards I guess) we have an average of 21.75 SCA in those 8 games.

Identical to the 8 game segment from Oct -24 to Nov 11 but lower than the previous 8 games of 24.5.

D needs to step up with the meal ticket injured.

Playing the Devils, Panthers, Rangers, Wings, Wild and Canucks didn't hurt vs the Sharks, Sabres, Bruins, Lightning in the previous 8. Context and all that.

Leafs have swept the Sharks and the Jets this season.

 

[Jozay]

The right side of the D does suck. Hainsey, Zaitsev and Oz would get destroyed against Tampa.

 

[Pookie]

Leafs have swept the Sharks and the Jets this season.

Yes they have.

I'm missing your point.....?

 

[Stephen]

The Ducks feel like the overrated control in terms of comparisons with the Leafs. I think Leafs Nation has spent so many years drooling over Montour, Manson, Theodore (when he was a Duck) as surplus guys who were attainable or Lindholm as the more well rounded Rielly, and Fowler as the Gardiner who could play defense that we think they're much better than they are.

 

[Vaive50]

Anyone notice that the Leafs have 6 players in the leagues top 25 in the +/- rating and 3 of them are in the top 8 (all defensemen) and number 8 is Gardiner with a +21. I don't remember us doing so good in that category since way back in the early 2000's.

 

[Gallagbi]

7-3-1 while being carried and saved by the spectacular goaltending of Sparks and Hutchinson.

Is that their combined record?

 

[apollo678]

While I do think our defense is pretty good, adding a top 4 right D (Pietrangelo) would be amazing.
I'd go Rielly/Gardiner, Dermott/Pietrangelo. Lots of puck moving ability on both sides.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Again team needs to focus on finishing ahead of Boston so we get home ice advantage this year and then figuring out a way of getting past Boston in round 1. The way I look at it is we have the same defense as last season and same goalie. Our forwards with Tavares are better. So we gotta hope with home ice we can take them. But I still worry we have no ability against Boston to withstand a heavy forecheck and then when we lose puck no ability to get it back when they cycle. I would like a couple D who are a little bigger who can take a heavy check into the boards and still maintain puck possession. Seeing Rielly on his butt and Gards chickening out last year in Boston was disheartening. Rielly especially needs someone with him who is faster and stronger than Hainsey (who does his best but ...) who can help on forecheck and cycle. Those 2 guys can play 30 minutes a night and I think we get through Boston. Even McQuaid with Gards on 2nd unit may give Gards some courage.