Narrative Analysis: Leafs D sucks & goalie saves them

[Gallagbi]

You are correct.

He is performing above expectations in heavy usage... more than most other contenders... suggesting that the goalie is contributing significantly to the positive results thus far (ie. saving them).

Not sure why zeke posted that and drew the opposite conclusion.

I'm not that big on his total shots against, if anything it helps his S% IMO because the backups usually play the easy opponents.

Things like HDCA are what interest me

 

[Pookie]

What you're saying is equivalent to saying "it doesn't matter how many people take the test, it has 41 questions so the sample is 41". The event being measured is Team Seasons, specifically the predictive ability of the 1st half to the second.]

The event being measured is CF. We take 41 data points for one team... or most likely, the sum of 41 data points... and compare to the second half for that team. Lather, rinse and repeat.

When you graph the result of the study, does it have 120 data points or 41?

Graph it?

The author graphed it as follows:

Summarizing the data into a subset of data across an 80 game season. You can graph it any way you like. The overall comparison by season, by team... whatever you like.

 

[4thline]

The event being measured is CF. We take 41 data points for one team... or most likely, the sum of 41 data points... and compare to the second half for that team. Lather, rinse and repeat.



Graph it?

The author graphed it as follows:

Summarizing the data into a subset of data across an 80 game season. You can graph it any way you like. The overall comparison by season, by team... whatever you like.

Yup, it's the study I thought.
Sample of 120 Team Seasons, measuring the predictive ability of different variables at different (well actually, all) points of experimental duration.

Whether it's 10 games, 20, 30, 40... any point on the above graph, for each of the variables, the sample is 120 team seasons, not 41 games.

 

[Pookie]

Yup, it's the study I thought.
Sample of 120 Team Seasons, measuring the predictive ability of different variables at different (well actually, all) points of experimental duration.

Whether it's 10 games, 20, 30, 40... any point on the above graph, for each of the variables, the sample is 120 team seasons, not 41 games.

Sorry dude I’m hammered but even under the influence I know the difference.

Think to my example after 5 games. Do we have a 5 game sample size or 155 sample size?

I don’t f’ing care really.

We could be buddies or bros except for the fact you can be a dick. Stop being a dick and I’d like you man.



Happy new year!

 

[4thline]

Think to my example after 5 games. Do we have a 5 game sample size or 155 sample size?

Neither, we have a 31 Team sample, with 5 games of data per team.

 

[zeke]

Wouldn't his dSv% be 0 if he's performing as expected? Not exactly a list of Allstars at the top of that chart either (though I do like Gibson)

Andersen is a good goalie who has played well this year. He has definitely saved more than expected.

But that is true of all the contenders' goalies.

 

[zeke]

Yup, it's the study I thought.
Sample of 120 Team Seasons, measuring the predictive ability of different variables at different (well actually, all) points of experimental duration.

Whether it's 10 games, 20, 30, 40... any point on the above graph, for each of the variables, the sample is 120 team seasons, not 41 games.

Oh man, from the sounds of it, it wasn't even lying, It was just not knowing better, despite the insults.

 

[deletethis]

The more damaging narrative is that there's a limit on the amount of talent the team can put on the ice. I say that's just negative thinking!

 

[Gary Nylund]

Oh man, from the sounds of it, it wasn't even lying, It was just not knowing better, despite the insults.

Insults rarely indicate knowledgeability.

 

[Fogelhund]

Kristen Shilton‏Verified account @kristen_shilton 3m3 minutes ago
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York U goalie Alex Fotino has just come onto the ice ahead of #Leafs practice, so. Doesn't look like Frederik Andersen will participate today, nor does it look like he'll be available to play tomorrow vs. Minnesota. Will confirm with Mike Babcock later on.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Hey Mike - maybe don’t play Andersen so damn much
Dubas needs to work on some goaltending

 

[razkaz]

I’m not sure he’s even debating

The basic point is that whether we use Scoring Chances, Corsi Against, Expected Goals... limitations of those aside... our Leafs should be giving up more goals than they are.

That points squarely at Freddy. Data suggests we rely more on him than most other contending teams do.

This shouldn’t be surprising to anyone. 75% of the games so far. With a .923 vs Sparks’ .905.

30 GP for Freddy which is more than most other contenders (eg Tampa 19 GP for their starter).

The other stuff.... like zeke saying these 40 games count and these 40 don’t when it’s convenient... or learning what a meta analysis is... I just chalk it up to the school system.

That's not true at all. Using simple Goals Saved Above Average here are where the "contending" goalies placed

GSAA/60
Andersen 0.12
Vasilevskiy 0.3
Holtby 0.01
Hellebuyck -0.32
DeSmith 0.23 (Murray -0.23)
Rinne 0.26
Rittich 0.54 (Smith -0.58)
Halak 0.21 (Rask -0.23)

Also a little disingenuous to compare Andersen's usage vs Vasilevskiy since the latter was gone for 14 games due to injury.

 

[Gallagbi]

Hey Mike - maybe don’t play Andersen so damn much
Dubas needs to work on some goaltending

Wonder if he would have avoided the injury if he played in Columbus

 

[Pookie]

That's not true at all. Using simple Goals Saved Above Average here are where the "contending" goalies placed

GSAA/60
Andersen 0.12
Vasilevskiy 0.3
Holtby 0.01
Hellebuyck -0.32
DeSmith 0.23 (Murray -0.23)
Rinne 0.26
Rittich 0.54 (Smith -0.58)
Halak 0.21 (Rask -0.23)

Also a little disingenuous to compare Andersen's usage vs Vasilevskiy since the latter was gone for 14 games due to injury.

I thought this was clear in that Andersen has been more heavily used.

If we ride our top goalie 30 games and the others ride theirs 20, it’s not a true comparison unless we count their back ups too

 

[zeke]

That's not true at all. Using simple Goals Saved Above Average here are where the "contending" goalies placed

GSAA/60
Andersen 0.12
Vasilevskiy 0.3
Holtby 0.01
Hellebuyck -0.32
DeSmith 0.23 (Murray -0.23)
Rinne 0.26
Rittich 0.54 (Smith -0.58)
Halak 0.21 (Rask -0.23)

Also a little disingenuous to compare Andersen's usage vs Vasilevskiy since the latter was gone for 14 games due to injury.

Just to use the number available on Corsica:

GSAA/30

BOS: Halak 22gms, +.52 / Rask 20gms, +.04
WSH: Holtby 27gms, +.23 /Copley 13gms, +.54
PIT: Desmith 25gms, +.36 / Murray 16gms, -.04
NSH: Rinne 29gms, +.22 / Saros 16gms, -.03
TOR: Anderson 30gms, +.27 / Sparks 10gms, -.49
CGY: Rittich 23gms, +.29 / Smith 21gms, -.52
WPG: Helle 30gms, +.03 / Brossoit 10gms, +0.81
TBL: Vasilevsky 20gms, +.12 / Domingue 19gms, -.28

 

[razkaz]

I thought this was clear in that Andersen has been more heavily used.

If we ride our top goalie 30 games and the others ride theirs 20, it’s not a true comparison unless we count their back ups too

Based on what? Games played?

Andersen 30
Hellebuyck 30
Vasilevskiy 20 (out for 14 games because of injury)
Holtby 29
Rinne 29

I won't be putting in the Pittsburgh, Boston, Calgary since they have been running an almost tandem starting goalie. I did include Vasi because had it not been for injuries he would be up there in numbers since Tampa hasn't had a lot of back to backs in the month he missed. Seems to me that as of right now, he's on par with the field and again you are being misleading when comparing Andersen to Vasi and you know it.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I’m not sure he’s even debating

The basic point is that whether we use Scoring Chances, Corsi Against, Expected Goals... limitations of those aside... our Leafs should be giving up more goals than they are.

That points squarely at Freddy. Data suggests we rely more on him than most other contending teams do.

This shouldn’t be surprising to anyone. 75% of the games so far. With a .923 vs Sparks’ .905.

30 GP for Freddy which is more than most other contenders (eg Tampa 19 GP for their starter).

The other stuff.... like zeke saying these 40 games count and these 40 don’t when it’s convenient... or learning what a meta analysis is... I just chalk it up to the school system.

I thinks its Freddy too but I have no idea what you guys do with the stats. My only worry is that little is he for real thing in back of my head that magnifies when I watch Freddy in Boston or in Tampa. He has to get over the road game thing against Boston and Tampa. He just has to. We need him to not freak out mentally in those games.

 

[zeke]

I thinks its Freddy too but I have no idea what you guys do with the stats. My only worry is that little is he for real thing in back of my head that magnifies when I watch Freddy in Boston or in Tampa. He has to get over the road game thing against Boston and Tampa. He just has to. We need him to not freak out mentally in those games.

Are you saying the main reason we lost to Boston and Tampa was goaltending?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Are you saying the main reason we lost to Boston and Tampa was goaltending?

I don't remember regular season games as exactly as I remember playoff games but the last road game in Tampa we completely dominated Tampa and deserved a win. All I can vividly remember was a total f...up by both Kucherov and then Nylander causing break away goals. Then I remember 2 saves on Matty in blue ice which Vasi made which to me were save of the year plays. Unbelievable athletics to stop both. Then the Kuch slapper goal which I am not sure should have been a goal. Call that one a Bettman special. Then Leafs were all over tampa but Tampa appled a heavy forecheck to us last few minutes of 2nd and all of a sudden 2 bad goals and we lose. Freddy needs to be able to withstand a little sustained pressure for 3 or 4 minutes against the big boys. Those 2 goals he needs to make regular saves. That said Vasi was lights out. And I know when Vasi goes lights out there is no goalie in the world who can beat him. Which is my main worry with Tampa.

 

[zeke]

I don't remember regular season games as exactly as I remember playoff games but the last road game in Tampa we completely dominated Tampa and deserved a win. All I can vividly remember was a total f...up by both Kucherov and then Nylander causing break away goals. Then I remember 2 saves on Matty in blue ice which Vasi made which to me were save of the year plays. Unbelievable athletics to stop both. Then the Kuch slapper goal which I am not sure should have been a goal. Call that one a Bettman special. Then Leafs were all over tampa but Tampa appled a heavy forecheck to us last few minutes of 2nd and all of a sudden 2 bad goals and we lose. Freddy needs to be able to withstand a little sustained pressure for 3 or 4 minutes against the big boys. Those 2 goals he needs to make regular saves. That said Vasi was lights out. And I know when Vasi goes lights out there is no goalie in the world who can beat him. Which is my main worry with Tampa.

I think you're right.

But it's weird, because if you're right about freddy costing us that and maybe other games, why do you/we think freddy is savin us?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I think you're right.

But it's weird, because if you're right about freddy costing us that and maybe other games, why do you/we think freddy is savin us?

I hope I am wrong in what I am gonna say here. But I think there are some goalies who play consistently better against weaker teams and some goalies who play better at home. My only worry about Freddy is can he hold himself together and not have the yips in Boston. I feel a lot better if we have home ice advantage playing game 7 in our rink. I blame Gards just as much as Freddy for that game 7 loss but the tie goal from point in 3rd period that is what I call the yips. You can't win the Cup with a goalie with the yips. This is his 3rd kick at the can with leafs and he must take us past round 1 against Boston. If he can't do it this year then we must make a move and bring in someone who can do it. Regular season is great but playoffs are what count.

 

[zeke]

I hope I am wrong in what I am gonna say here. But I think there are some goalies who play consistently better against weaker teams and some goalies who play better at home. My only worry about Freddy is can he hold himself together and not have the yips in Boston. I feel a lot better if we have home ice advantage playing game 7 in our rink. I blame Gards just as much as Freddy for that game 7 loss but the tie goal from point in 3rd period that is what I call the yips. You can't win the Cup with a goalie with the yips. This is his 3rd kick at the can with leafs and he must take us past round 1 against Boston. If he can't do it this year then we must make a move and bring in someone who can do it. Regular season is great but playoffs are what count.

hard to argue with that, tbh.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I hope I am wrong in what I am gonna say here. But I think there are some goalies who play consistently better against weaker teams and some goalies who play better at home. My only worry about Freddy is can he hold himself together and not have the yips in Boston. I feel a lot better if we have home ice advantage playing game 7 in our rink. I blame Gards just as much as Freddy for that game 7 loss but the tie goal from point in 3rd period that is what I call the yips. You can't win the Cup with a goalie with the yips. This is his 3rd kick at the can with leafs and he must take us past round 1 against Boston. If he can't do it this year then we must make a move and bring in someone who can do it. Regular season is great but playoffs are what count.

Disagree. Just to be sure I watched it again and it seems pretty clear that he didn't see the puck when it was shot as Rielly was moving in front of him.

 

[Pookie]

Based on what? Games played?

Andersen 30
Hellebuyck 30
Vasilevskiy 20 (out for 14 games because of injury)
Holtby 29
Rinne 29

I won't be putting in the Pittsburgh, Boston, Calgary since they have been running an almost tandem starting goalie. I did include Vasi because had it not been for injuries he would be up there in numbers since Tampa hasn't had a lot of back to backs in the month he missed. Seems to me that as of right now, he's on par with the field and again you are being misleading when comparing Andersen to Vasi and you know it.

So you won’t put them in because it doesn’t show what you want to show?

I didn’t define the teams. Zeke did.

NSH, BOS, WSH, TBL, WPG, PIT

Just one of those is close to Andersen. Maybe 2 if you count Holtby (27)

 

[razkaz]

So you won’t put them in because it doesn’t show what you want to show?

I didn’t define the teams. Zeke did.

NSH, BOS, WSH, TBL, WPG, PIT

Just one of those is close to Andersen. Maybe 2 if you count Holtby (27)

Is this a serious reply? I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and I'll break it down.

Looking at the division leaders right now.

Metropolitan
1. WSH Holtby 27 GP
2. PIT Murray 17 GP (Missed 10 Games due to injury)
3. CLB Bobrovsky 29 GP

Atlantic
1. TBL Vasilevskiy 20 GP (Missed 14 Games due to injury)
2. TOR Andersen 30 GP (Missed 2 games due to injury)
3. BOS Rask 20 GP (Boston has been back and forth on starting goalie because early in the season Rask was crap and Halak was performing better)

Central
1. WPG Hellebuyck 30 GP
2. NSH Rinne 29 GP
3. DAL Bishop 26 GP (Missed 5 Games due to injury)

Pacific
1. CGY Smith 22 GP (Missed 1 Game due to injury but the real reason he hasn't played more is because Rittich took over that job)
2. VGK Fleury 37 GP
3. SJS Jones 30 GP

So based on Games Played and seeing how much time other goalies have missed because of injuries, not resting to be saved for playoffs, how is Andersen more "heavily used" vs his counterparts? Like I said previously, the reason I didn't put those other goalies is because those teams have had goaltending issues and has nothing to do with a trying to paint a different narrative.

You were the one trying to paint the picture of heavy usage for Andersen when you made this quote:

...30 GP for Freddy which is more than most other contenders (eg Tampa 19 GP for their starter)...

I then called you out saying that's not a fair comparison since Vasi was hurt so that's why he has the low number of games played. So either show us why you think Andersen is more heavily used compared to his counterparts or admit you're the one trying to push this narrative to dismiss your previous argument that we rely more on Andersen vs other "contenders".