Speculation: MVP you'd re-sign amongst this year's UFAs & RFAs?

[Corby78]

except that the Caps don't need the offensive left shot top 4 d. they are stacked ahead of him and have a primary prospect behind him. Johansson plays a critical role on the Caps pp1.

again, if the coaching staff are playing 90 on that pp unit ahead of 92, I question the idea that replacing him is a piece of cake.

Understood, but I'm looking at more of a NHL value. Orlov with his possible upside is more valuable in the NHL, and thus harder to replace and more valuable to trade. And yes Bowey is sitting in Hershey but so is Vrana/Stephenson ect...

 

[txpd]

Understood, but I'm looking at more of a NHL value. Orlov with his possible upside is more valuable in the NHL, and thus harder to replace and more valuable to trade. And yes Bowey is sitting in Hershey but so is Vrana/Stephenson ect...

this is a question about who the Capitals keep and not who other NHL teams would want. Yes, an Orlov might be harder to get than a Johansson. Maybe. For the Capitals, Johansson plays a much more important role than does Orlov and Orlov's progress up the lineup is blocked.

Vrana is not in a position to replace what Johansson brings, a primary role on the 1st pp unit. Kuz would move up to take that role and Vrana would merely take Johansson's roster spot. There is a reason Johansson plays ahead of Kuznetsov on the power play. Its because he is better at that role than Kuznetsov is.

Stephenson and Barber are competing for Latta/Richards roster spots. Not Johansson's.

 

[Raikkonen]

Orlov's got potential, but replacing him is relatively easy. GMBM can easily sign some guy to be 3rd pair D. EASILY.

We are talking some cup here, right, not biases?

 

[trick9]

Orlov's got potential, but replacing him is relatively easy. GMBM can easily sign some guy to be 3rd pair D. EASILY.

We are talking some cup here, right, not biases?

Tied 13th (with Dustin Byfuglien) in NHL P/60 among D's at ES. #51 in total points by D. His 3 GWG's are also tied 13th in the NHL among D's, with guys like Karlsson and Josi.

I'd like to see that long list of options that you can get for ~ below 4m AAV and can get anywhere near matching those numbers while playing on the 3rd pairing with very limited PP time.

 

[Raikkonen]

Tied 13th (with Dustin Byfuglien) in NHL P/60 among D's at ES. #51 in total points by D. His 3 GWG's are also tied 13th in the NHL among D's, with guys like Karlsson and Josi.

I'd like to see that long list of options that you can get for ~ below 4m AAV and can get anywhere near matching those numbers while playing on the 3rd pairing with very limited PP time.

1) do we need exactly that to win the cup?

2) did you see anything like that in games 1-4?

I think we can sign another D and be all right. This is not the key position. And paying 4M for offense which isn't there in playoffs - is not good strategy.

Braden Holtby got 6,1M. He's half the team literally. If Orlov wants to be paid ~4M at least he needs to show something for it. Sheltered P/60 isn't what I would pay for.

 

[trick9]

1) do we need exactly that to win the cup?

2) did you see anything like that in games 1-4?

I think we can sign another D and be all right. This is not the key position. And paying 4M for offense which isn't there in playoffs - is not good strategy.

Braden Holtby got 6,1M. He's half the team literally. If Orlov wants to be paid ~4M at least he needs to show something for it. Sheltered P/60 isn't what I would pay for.

Defensive depth? Yes. The Kings certainly felt like that when they re-signed Alec Martinez who is a very similar player as Dmitri Orlov.

I'm not following the logic here. Was Orlov somehow bad in games 1-4? Most of the goals the Caps have conceded have been on Brooks Orpik, and they've given up 4 goals in 4 games. People wanted him to take less risks, and it was obvious he's done that in the Playoffs as anticipated. He's generating chances, so it's tough to pin that on him. Lots of guys on the team that aren't matching their regular season numbers. I've liked what i've seen from him so far, and would definitely sign him for ~3-4m AAV. Defensive depth is absolutely crucial for good teams. I don't disagree with you that they couldn't replace him though. There are always weaker bottom-pairing defenders available for half the price, i'd just prefer being able to run 3 pairings through whole games, because we don't have Keith or Doughty to eat up 30+ minutes in a game.

I would rather trade Johansson and keep Orlov than the other way around. Rather keep both but i doubt that's possible under the cap without significantly altering the team, which i don't like either. That's mainly because i think guys like Vrana are closer than the AHL D options (Bowey). Plus it's much easier to bump guy like Winnik to the 3rd line and sign ~1m guy to the 4th line (if Vrana isn't ready) than to have guy like Chorney/Weber as an automatic top-6 D. Cheap D options are often guys like Weber or slightly better. They bring back none of the offense or possession numbers you'll lose with Orlov which would hurt in the regular season (yes, the Caps don't start the season with 20+ point advantage so they still need good regular season players), and in the Playoffs they'll only see ice when paired with reliable D partner. Which again drives the TOI up for guys like Carlson.

 

[Raikkonen]

Defensive depth? Yes. The Kings certainly felt like that when they re-signed Alec Martinez who is a very similar player as Dmitri Orlov.

I'm not following the logic here. Was Orlov somehow bad in games 1-4? Most of the goals the Caps have conceded have been on Brooks Orpik, and they've given up 4 goals in 4 games. People wanted him to take less risks, and it was obvious he's done that in the Playoffs as anticipated. He's generating chances, so it's tough to pin that on him. Lots of guys on the team that aren't matching their regular season numbers. I've liked what i've seen from him so far, and would definitely sign him for ~3-4m AAV. Defensive depth is absolutely crucial for good teams. I don't disagree with you that they couldn't replace him though. There are always weaker bottom-pairing defenders available for half the price, i'd just prefer being able to run 3 pairings through whole games, because we don't have Keith or Doughty to eat up 30+ minutes in a game.

Can't see my logic? But I can see his P/60 is zero.

If we are talking about 3-4M - it's not Mike Weber already. It's a player capable of playing 2nd pair. I forgot, what kind of salary Alzner has?

Orlov showed nothing indicating he's worth it in playoffs. We dumped Green for that same reason - he didn't bring the same value he was paid for. Making the same mistake again is silly.

Yep, his numbers are interesting, his skills are attractive. But we need bigger sample size before we give him 4M.

I can tell you 3 names of players who should go this summer to make space for Mojo, Wilson and Orlov if we need that.

Chimera
Richards
Winnik

I'm perfectly fine with the situation. Orlov has time to learn from current top-4. Different things from each one of them. He could play for a moderate salary one more year. Like a 2M+. Not more than 3M. And he will be still RFA then.

When he's learned enough and can show it in crucial time - then sign him for big $$$.

 

[trick9]

Can't see my logic? But I can see his P/60 is zero.

If we are talking about 3-4M - it's not Mike Weber already. It's a player capable of playing 2nd pair. I forgot, what kind of salary Alzner has?

Orlov showed nothing indicating he's worth it in playoffs. We dumped Green for that same reason - he didn't bring the same value he was paid for. Making the same mistake again is silly.

Yep, his numbers are interesting, his skills are attractive. But we need bigger sample size before we give him 4M.

I can tell you 3 names of players who should go this summer to make space for Mojo, Wilson and Orlov if we need that.

Chimera
Richards
Winnik

I'm perfectly fine with the situation. Orlov has time to learn from current top-4. Different things from each one of them. He could play for a moderate salary one more year. Like a 2M+. Not more than 3M. And he will be still RFA then.

When he's learned enough and can show it in crucial time - then sign him for big $$$.

Really? Shot at his ES production in a 4-game sample size? Please remind me how much is that same P/60 at ES number for top guys? Should we trade them all?

Why pay someone 3-4m to downgrade from Orlov? Obviously if he's asking for more but otherwise that's just makes zero sense. That gets you Mark Fayne from UFA market. If you want great bottom-pairing D that can move up to the 2nd pairing for 4m AAV, that's (wait-for-it...) Dmitri Orlov. Dan Hamhuis would be interesting but after blocking a trade to East, he's not going sign here either.

Back to that point. If you could just swap guys like that then i'd love to have 5 Alzner's and Carlson back on the D. Is there lots of teams that are actively trying to get rid of their Alzner in defense? Take him and run. Realistic trade option for guy like that is going to cost you Burakovsky+ in a trade. UFA version of that gets you Mark Fayne, Zbynek Michalek or guy like that. This UFA class is especially poor. Who is there for ~3-4m? Roman Polak or Tom Gilbert? If Orlov is asking for too much, i'd trade him and try to regroup by trading for someone like Justin Braun. Signing his replacement means overpaying for a downgrade as the UFA market is poor.

I wish he signed another bridge contract. I just doubt guy producing ~ top-50 amongst D's is going to take another.

Completely agree with you about Chimera, Winnik and Richards though. They are replaceable far easier than any of the 3 RFA's.

 

[Hivemind]

Orlov has been bad so far in the playoffs. He's flubbing on easy pucks.

 

[twabby]

Everyone here knows I love Orlov but I'd go with Johansson if I had to pick between them. Fortunately both should be able to be re-signed this offseason.

 

[trick9]

Orlov has been bad so far in the playoffs. He's flubbing on easy pucks.

I can't really agree to that first statement. As for the second, then you could say Niskanen and Schmidt have been bad aswell. Niskanen got drilled several times in that G4 because he was flubbing on the pucks. Schmidt fumbled the puck that lead to Raffl's partial breakaway. I think Orlov has been solid. He's generating chances, and i've been impressed with him defensively.

 

[Raikkonen]

Everyone here knows I love Orlov but I'd go with Johansson if I had to pick between them. Fortunately both should be able to be re-signed this offseason.

You don't like Orpik. Hard to forgive you!

 

[Langway]

It's somewhat understandable when Niskanen or Carlson look somewhat worn down late in games or in Game 4 at least. Schmidt and Orlov should supply energy and be hungry for more minutes but they both look to be in training wheels mode in the playoffs thus far. Those two are key parts of their depth giving them an edge. While neither has been terrible, they also haven't been quick to adjust to playoff type intensity/pace. This is where their internal team rhythm and pace should have prepared them better but we all know how wildly fluctuating their game pace was in the second half of the season. They've really got to tighten up their puck control and those two can help more than they have thus far.

 

[SpinningEdge]

Carlson, Alzner, Orpik, and Nisky are our top 4.

Mile Green went away last year with way higher P/60, etc bc Bmac said his price was too steep for a third pairing guy.

Same with Orlov. Right now he's a third D pairing guy. We don't need to pay him 3.5+. We have Bowey ready to step in and give the team 15-18 mins/night and he'll be 1/4 of Orlovs salary.

If this was in 2 more years then you could be discussing Orlov taking maybe Orpiks place, but it's not happening now. 5.5 cap hit for Orpik for 3 more years means at least for another year or two he's a top 2 pairing.

 

[txpd]

boy, I don't know. there are 11 nhl defensemen with more average toi than Niskanen and 17 with more than Carlson.

These guys are playing pretty typical minutes for players in their roles. If you think they are already overwhelmed, then you have to think the team is not capable. this is a primary pilar of any team. they are not getting overplayed

 

[trick9]

Carlson, Alzner, Orpik, and Nisky are our top 4.

Mile Green went away last year with way higher P/60, etc bc Bmac said his price was too steep for a third pairing guy.

Same with Orlov. Right now he's a third D pairing guy. We don't need to pay him 3.5+. We have Bowey ready to step in and give the team 15-18 mins/night and he'll be 1/4 of Orlovs salary.

If this was in 2 more years then you could be discussing Orlov taking maybe Orpiks place, but it's not happening now. 5.5 cap hit for Orpik for 3 more years means at least for another year or two he's a top 2 pairing.

Green was 5th (1.39/P60), Orlov 14th (1.24/P60), not exactly a major difference.

I'm not here claiming that Orlov should get anywhere near that money. I said i'd resign him for sure for 3-4m (~3.5), maybe for ~4 if the term is right and they don't like the other options (guys available for trade etc). Green asked for 6. That's nearly twice as much.

I'll eat my hat if we have Madison Bowey playing 15-18 minutes with Barry Trotz as a coach in the 2016-'17 Playoffs.

 

[SpinningEdge]

Green was 5th (1.39/P60), Orlov 14th (1.24/P60), not exactly a major difference.

I'm not here claiming that Orlov should get anywhere near that money. I said i'd resign him for sure for 3-4m (~3.5), maybe for ~4 if the term is right and they don't like the other options (guys available for trade etc). Green asked for 6. That's nearly twice as much.

I'll eat my hat if we have Madison Bowey playing 15-18 minutes with Barry Trotz as a coach in the 2016-'17 Playoffs.

It wasn't just points - look at goals against per 60 last year with Green. I think it was maybe best on the team?

 

[txpd]

personally, if I were Orlov, I would want to find a team that was a better fit. You would think there are teams with left handed primary pp shooters that would want/need a left shooting top 4 puck moving d like Orlov. That would play him 20 minutes a night and put up with his need to still grow into a primary role.

That is never going to happen in Washington as long as Alex Ovechkin is there.

 

[Calicaps]

personally, if I were Orlov, I would want to find a team that was a better fit. You would think there are teams with left handed primary pp shooters that would want/need a left shooting top 4 puck moving d like Orlov. That would play him 20 minutes a night and put up with his need to still grow into a primary role.

That is never going to happen in Washington as long as Alex Ovechkin is there.

Orlov is cued up to be Nisky or Carly's replacement in a few years, IMO, since they are unlikely to be able to afford to keep both of those guys and Alzner. I have to think they expect his decision making, etc. to improve as it should with any top-4 potential D. Bowey will be next in line, but he'll likely get the Orlov treatment (3rd pair) for a couple of years, according to the apparent Trotz development model.

 

[txpd]

Bowey is a right shot. He fits the bill. Schmidt is still more reliable defensively as seen by who got moved up to fill Oprik's spot.

Niskanen is locked in til 2021. I cant imagine the Caps letting Carlson walk. He has two more years. Is that what you are thinking? They let Carlson walk as a UFA and move a left shot into his role? I don't see that

 

[Calicaps]

Bowey is a right shot. He fits the bill. Schmidt is still more reliable defensively as seen by who got moved up to fill Oprik's spot.

Niskanen is locked in til 2021. I cant imagine the Caps letting Carlson walk. He has two more years. Is that what you are thinking? They let Carlson walk as a UFA and move a left shot into his role? I don't see that

It's not ideal, and maybe BMac has a better idea, which he may well. But Carlson is gonna get PAID, and we're on the hook for Niskanen, as you point out, for five more years. I don't want to lose Carly, but I'm not sure what the cap/budget will support. And you for sure don't let Carlson walk, but maybe you have to trade him if the price is too high. Or you trade Nisky. I dunno. I suppose you could trade Orlov and go with Bowey, but that's getting younger and more inexperienced, which is not ideal.

 

[twabby]

The fact is the Capitals need a top 4 LD to replace Orpik who isn't going to be in that role much longer, maybe another year tops. Will it be Schmidt or Orlov? Tough to tell right now. Orlov is more dynamic offensively but struggles in the defensive zone, while Schmidt is a little steadier defensively but doesn't have the same level of offensive skill.

Is Orlov going to get prime PP time? Probably not unless the league figures out the PP the Caps run. As constructed it's pretty important for the point man to be a right hand shot. That doesn't mean he can't be a very effective even strength player.

 

[Raikkonen]

It's not ideal, and maybe BMac has a better idea, which he may well. But Carlson is gonna get PAID, and we're on the hook for Niskanen, as you point out, for five more years. I don't want to lose Carly, but I'm not sure what the cap/budget will support. And you for sure don't let Carlson walk, but maybe you have to trade him if the price is too high. Or you trade Nisky. I dunno. I suppose you could trade Orlov and go with Bowey, but that's getting younger and more inexperienced, which is not ideal.

Something something... priorities!

Orlov has question marks all over him. Size, speed/acceleration, durability, defensive abilities, decision making. He's not exactly young and still he's not exactly experienced.

And you want to dump Nisky/Carlson due to the fact that they want to be paid for what they successfully do? And then what? Pay Orlov their money for the work he does worse?

Orlov could be what he is now. Offensive D with warts. Maybe he'll never be that playoffs monster Carlson is. And yes, Carlson will get paid. It's OK.

If cap goes down and Orpik is still there... GMBM can dump Orlov, gather assets, then upgrade Orpik for middle aged perfectly top-4 capable defender not named Dmitry Orlov. This is a better plan than paying Orlov just for his potential.

And I'm Orlov's fan btw.

The fact is the Capitals need a top 4 LD to replace Orpik who isn't going to be in that role much longer, maybe another year tops. Will it be Schmidt or Orlov? Tough to tell right now. Orlov is more dynamic offensively but struggles in the defensive zone, while Schmidt is a little steadier defensively but doesn't have the same level of offensive skill.

Yep, they can get a guy like Hamhuis (but do it later and the guy will be named differently). UFA / trade.

 

[txpd]

a couple of things.

1. I would not assume Orpik is out of the top 4 no later than after next season.
2. Carlson might is going to get paid. What does that look like? As of right now Niskanen plays more minutes than Carlson. Carlson and Oprik were the top minutes pair, but after returning from their injuries Alzner and Niskanen held on to that role.
3. Its true that adding Bowey makes them younger, but Bowey is coming and is going to play. Vrana and Barber are coming and are going to play when their time comes.

 

[Calicaps]

Something something... priorities!

Orlov has question marks all over him. Size, speed/acceleration, durability, defensive abilities, decision making. He's not exactly young and still he's not exactly experienced.

And you want to dump Nisky/Carlson due to the fact that they want to be paid for what they successfully do? And then what? Pay Orlov their money for the work he does worse?

Orlov could be what he is now. Offensive D with warts. Maybe he'll never be that playoffs monster Carlson is. And yes, Carlson will get paid. It's OK.

If cap goes down and Orpik is still there... GMBM can dump Orlov, gather assets, then upgrade Orpik for middle aged perfectly top-4 capable defender not named Dmitry Orlov. This is a better plan than paying Orlov just for his potential.

And I'm Orlov's fan btw.



Yep, they can get a guy like Hamhuis (but do it later and the guy will be named differently). UFA / trade.

I said right out I do not want to dump Nisky or Carly, but I recognize that there's a danger of being priced out of that market. I have a lot of faith in Trotz's ability to develop Dmen and in BMac's ability to gauge value. They will be the ones to make the call, obviously, I am just remarking on the economic possibilities.