Multiple Balls: Disadvantage?

[Blane Youngblood]

Quit being an ass... as you can see from the other posts, there is plenty of uncertainty on these boards about how this is going to be done.

At some point though, you have to rely on common sense. There is no way they're gonna use a system where teams that should have the best chance actually have the worse chance. The NHL isn't stupid.

 

[salty justice]

Over 100 posts on a thread that should have been closed after the 2nd post

 

[JOHNBOY]

Thanks for the clarification, guys... makes much more sense, but it would provide better intregue/suspense if they did it this way...

I can see it now, they are down to pick #2 and only the Sabres and Rangers have not been picked....Gary lets out a big laugh and announces the Sabres have the #2 pick

"how u like me now, *****"?
hahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!

 

[JOHNBOY]

Over 100 posts on a thread that should have been closed after the 2nd post

 

[salzy]

For the last time, they're NOT drawing them 30-1, they're drawing them 1-30 behind closed doors, then revealing the order 30-1 at the press conference. Can't anyone here read?

Okay, so just so we're clear, do we need to be watching at the beginning of the show or the end to find out who gets Crosby?

 

[Bryanbryoil]

If it's like the NBA lottery "which it has been said to resemble" then they reveal the lowest to the top, so it would be #30-#1. personally, I wish that they'd just go from #1-#30, to hell with suspense!!!

 

[OneBall]

for those who still don't understand why a reverse draft is bad, i give u an example:

say there are only 3 teams in the lottery, NY Rangers, Nashville, and Carolina. Bettman and the NHL obviously don't want Crosby to end up in Nashvile nor Carolina, so he weighs the lottery heavily in NY's favor: NY gets 10 balls while the other 2 teams only get 1 ball each. Under a normal lottery (draft from 1 to 3), NY has a 10/12 chance of landing the # 1 pick, pretty good odds I'd say. And the other 2 teams only have 1/12 chance. If the lottery is reverse, the chance of pulling a NY ball out first is still 10/12, which is highly likely. On the 2nd draw, NY still has a 9/11 chance, while the other 2 teams have 1/11 chance. NY will always have the highest propability of being pulled out until they are down to only one ball, giving them the same probability as the other 2 teams. If NY only has 2 balls left, they have a 2/4 chance of being pulled out, while the other 2 teams have 1/4 chance.

Of course the chance exits that the other 2 teams' balls will be pulled out 1st and 2nd, but of course that's very unlikely. And isn't the whole point of a lottery is to give bad teams the highest probability at the higher picks (not just the #1)?

 

[helicecopter]

..the NHL obviously don't want Crosby to end up in Nashvile nor Carolina, so he weighs the lottery heavily in NY's favor: NY gets 10 balls while the other 2 teams only get 1 ball each. Under a normal lottery (draft from 1 to 3), NY has a 10/12 chance of landing the # 1 pick, pretty good odds I'd say. And the other 2 teams only have 1/12 chance. If the lottery is reverse, the chance of pulling a NY ball out first is still 10/12, which is highly likely. On the 2nd draw, NY still has a 9/11 chance, while the other 2 teams have 1/11 chance. NY will always have the highest propability of being pulled out until they are down to only one ball, giving them the same probability as the other 2 teams.

So what? you have to multiply each single draw-probability for NYR's ones..

 

[helicecopter]

Yeah.. having an "Extra" ball would give you no advantage.

The only way they could do this backwards would be to give all the teams that have 1 ball 3 and 3 balls 1.. I just don't see the point of not doing it in order?

People, what about reading the previous threads on this subject instead of going on telling crap?

This was discussed and posted days ago:

..just draw all 48 balls and only count the last ball drawn for a particular team.

The first team to not have any balls left anymore gets position #30. The second team to not have any balls left anymore gets #29 and so on..

Unchanged odds, zero dead balls and it’s PERFECT for suspence!

For example, for the first overall pick:
-if you go straight forward the Rangers have 3/48 chances to get it. It seems everyone agree on this!!!
-going by reverse order: since there are 48 balls, each one of the Rangers balls has 1/48 chances to be the last one left. The rangers have three balls, so their chances overall to possess the last ball left will be 1/48 + 1/48 + 1/48 = 3/48.

 

[helicecopter]

No, they'd count the last ball, not the first one. So the more balls a team has, the more likely it is that their last one comes out later.

That has to be one of the dumbest "theories" ever read on this board.

Seriously.

Hell yes. Another source of amusement and a good way to spot who didn't even bother going to high school.

Hey doctor, what about taking the time to realize Seachd is absolutely and obviously RIGHT?

 

[The Joker*]

2 balls is fine
Anything over that seems to have it's disadvantages

 

[frank4president]

I don't understand what's so hard about it. Three simple facts.
- In a reverse order lottery teams with more balls have less advantage than under a 'normal' order
- There will still be an advantage for those teams
- 'Fair' is an objective term
I've run the draft simulator countless times and there've been so many times where all the three ball teams picked out of the top ten or where 4 playoff teams picked in the top 5. With a 6.3 % chance at best you have no guarantees of a high pick in the normal order anyway. Reverse the order and the odds of three ball teams getting a low pick increase but only slightly.

 

[bcrt2000]

I don't understand what's so hard about it. Three simple facts.
- In a reverse order lottery teams with more balls have less advantage than under a 'normal' order
- There will still be an advantage for those teams
- 'Fair' is an objective term
I've run the draft simulator countless times and there've been so many times where all the three ball teams picked out of the top ten or where 4 playoff teams picked in the top 5. With a 6.3 % chance at best you have no guarantees of a high pick in the normal order anyway. Reverse the order and the odds of three ball teams getting a low pick increase but only slightly.

ugh.. read the posts in this thread:

http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=3103877&postcount=97

theres two proofs there, either contradict both of them, or please don't try a hack attempt at a false theory. sorry, i don't mean to sound elitist or anything but i think the thread is pointless if people just start discarding 2 mathematical proofs like that.

 

[Tuggy]

holy crap, their drawing the balls 1-30 and announcing on TSN 30-1. Its pretty simple, come on guys.

But it's funny to see these guys spin those hamster wheels in their head

 

[Fish on The Sand]

It doesn't. Both systems give the teams exactly the same odds of winning the #1 seed.

that justy simply can't be true. a team with 3 balls is mor elikely to be picke dup front. Say the Rangers are drawn first, they are down to 2 balls. So they get drawn again 5 picks later, and now they went from a major advantage, to pretty much nothing. As a hab fan, I like it because statistically they have a better chance at not being drawn at the end of the draft. Even if multiple ball teams still have their balls left in the machine, they still have a higher chance at being picked. Look at it this way. Until the multiple ball teams are down to a single ball, they have a higher chance at being drawn, simple as that.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

It's *possible* that three ball teams get all their balls drawn early. Not likely.

Its more likely you mean. Odds are, the Rangers or any other 3 ball team will have 2 balls drawn before the vast majority of 1 ball teams. Lets look at it this way. Say there are 3 balls left. 2 for the Hurricanes, and one for the Senators. The Senators actually have a better chance at getting number 1 over Carolina because of the following.

Carolina would have a 66.7% chance at being drawn first, while Ottawa a 33.3 chance. Say Carolina gets drawn first, which they likely would, they would be down to a 50% chance of losing the first pick. That scenario easily favors Ottawa. Although the last draw is a 50/50 pick, the Canes were screwed by having more balls.

 

[bcrt2000]

that justy simply can't be true. a team with 3 balls is mor elikely to be picke dup front. Say the Rangers are drawn first, they are down to 2 balls. So they get drawn again 5 picks later, and now they went from a major advantage, to pretty much nothing. As a hab fan, I like it because statistically they have a better chance at not being drawn at the end of the draft. Even if multiple ball teams still have their balls left in the machine, they still have a higher chance at being picked. Look at it this way. Until the multiple ball teams are down to a single ball, they have a higher chance at being drawn, simple as that.

i don't know whether to laugh or cry

 

[jekoh]

that justy simply can't be true. a team with 3 balls is mor elikely to be picke dup front. Say the Rangers are drawn first, they are down to 2 balls. So they get drawn again 5 picks later, and now they went from a major advantage, to pretty much nothing.

Again, you fail to explain how that makes any difference from the 1-to-30 method.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

to a reverse draft order of {NYR #3, NYR #1, COL, NYR #2, DET}. In the forward Draft, the first pick would be Detroit, second pick NYR (NYR #2), third pick COL, then we ignore the last 2 balls. In the reverse Draft, we'd ignore the first NYR ball (NYR #3), ignore the second NYR ball (NYR #1), then COL only has one ball left, so it gets the third pick, then NYR's last ball (NYR #2), so they get second pick, and Detroit has the last ball so they get first pick.

there is no way that favors the Rangers.

The forward would give the Rangers a 60/40 shot at number 1. The reverse gives them 50/50 at losing a ball first, the Wings a 1/5 chance at getting number 3, and the Avs a 1/5 chance at 3. Going statistically, the Rangers get drawn first. We are down to 5 balls, with the Rangers a 50% chance at being drawn again, and the Avs/Wings a 25% chance each. Once again, odds are the Rangers will be drawn again, leaving 3 balls with 1 each, and now there is a 1/3 chance for all teams. Until the teams were all equal, the Rangers had a massive likelyhood of being drawn. even if after the 2nd ball, it went to either the Avs or Wings, which statistically it is actually even. As those two combined equal the Rangers, that still leaves 3 balls with 2 of them being the Rangers, and one say the Avs. This tyime, the Rags have a 66.7& chance at being drawn, which you would have to assume they would. put it thios way. Of the 5 balls drawn, three of the original 5 would belong to the Rangers. How is that an advantage? Easiest way to put it, in a forward lottery they have a 50+ chance at getting picked first. In a reverse lottery, their odds of winning are equal. It is 1/3......at best. In a reverse lottery the absolute best case scenario is equal odds to the other teams. There is no way you can say this is wrong.

 

[bcrt2000]

Again, you fail to explain how that makes any difference from the 1-to-30 method.

when people totally discard 2 mathematical proofs, and try to come up with their own odd ball theory you know that you're talking to the wrong person

seriously, this thread needs to be closed because the collective IQ in this thread (which would probably be in the negative if it were possible!) is making me go bonkers

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Again, you fail to explain how that makes any difference from the 1-to-30 method.

With more balls you are going to be picked more often right? Duh. So, if the first ball drawn is for number 1, they have a better chance at number 1. The Rangers odds of winning are at best equal to the one ball teams because until their ball total is equal to the one ball teams, they have a higher likelyhood of being drawn.

 

[bcrt2000]

to a reverse draft order of {NYR #3, NYR #1, COL, NYR #2, DET}. In the forward Draft, the first pick would be Detroit, second pick NYR (NYR #2), third pick COL, then we ignore the last 2 balls. In the reverse Draft, we'd ignore the first NYR ball (NYR #3), ignore the second NYR ball (NYR #1), then COL only has one ball left, so it gets the third pick, then NYR's last ball (NYR #2), so they get second pick, and Detroit has the last ball so they get first pick.

there is no way that favors the Rangers.

The forward would give the Rangers a 60/40 shot at number 1. The reverse gives them 50/50 at losing a ball first, the Wings a 1/5 chance at getting number 3, and the Avs a 1/5 chance at 3. Going statistically, the Rangers get drawn first. We are down to 5 balls, with the Rangers a 50% chance at being drawn again, and the Avs/Wings a 25% chance each. Once again, odds are the Rangers will be drawn again, leaving 3 balls with 1 each, and now there is a 1/3 chance for all teams. Until the teams were all equal, the Rangers had a massive likelyhood of being drawn. even if after the 2nd ball, it went to either the Avs or Wings, which statistically it is actually even. As those two combined equal the Rangers, that still leaves 3 balls with 2 of them being the Rangers, and one say the Avs. This tyime, the Rags have a 66.7& chance at being drawn, which you would have to assume they would. put it thios way. Of the 5 balls drawn, three of the original 5 would belong to the Rangers. How is that an advantage? Easiest way to put it, in a forward lottery they have a 50+ chance at getting picked first. In a reverse lottery, their odds of winning are equal. It is 1/3......at best. In a reverse lottery the absolute best case scenario is equal odds to the other teams. There is no way you can say this is wrong.

that didn't disprove my proof.

my proof pretty much hinges on two claims.

#1: any outcome is as equally as likely as its reverse (which is true because ALL outcomes of 48 unique balls are equally likely)

#2: forward order draft works if and only if reverse order draft works. I basically backed this up by showing, if you take any order of n balls, and reverse it, and use the reverse elimination method, it gives the same outcome every single time. If I was doing a formal proof, I would have shown the other direction of the proof (<==) but its trivial.

if you can contradict those... well then not only am i wrong, but then i think you just disproved mathematics ... of course then you'd have to disprove the set theory proof as well.

i'm not sure what you're trying to do by throwing around all those meaningless fractions which have no base to prove anything. You should be looking at things in terms of the 48 balls, NOT in terms of 30 selections, because each ball is independent from the others

 

[Fish on The Sand]

that didn't disprove my proof.

my proof pretty much hinges on two claims.

#1: any outcome is as equally as likely as its reverse (which is true because ALL outcomes of 48 unique balls are equally likely)

#2: forward order draft works if and only if reverse order draft works. I basically backed this up by showing, if you take any order of n balls, and reverse it, and use the reverse elimination method, it gives the same outcome every single time.

if you can contradict those... well then not only am i wrong, but then i think you just disproved mathematics ... of course then you'd have to disprove the set theory proof as well.

i'm not sure what you're trying to do by throwing around all those meaningless fractions which have no base to prove anything. You should be looking at things in terms of the 48 balls, NOT in terms of 30 selections, because each ball is independent from the others

I already did contradict it. The Rangers have a 60% chance at number 1 forward, how is it even remotely possible for them to have a 60% chance in the reverse? I put the numbers down. In a draw where the goal is to not be drawn, the Rangers in every single drawing have a more chance at being drawn, or at best even. I showed you the numbers, and the numbers don't lie. As for your last part, a team with 3 balls is more likely to lose 2 balls and be down to one before a team with 1 ball is eliminated. This is about stats and odds, and the odds do not favor the teams with multiple balls. The only way it could work is if they put in 30 balls, and teams with multiple balls had their's simply not count until there's came up. At least that way the teams with fewer balls would be just as likely to be drawn.

 

[bcrt2000]

I already did contradict it. The Rangers have a 60% chance at number 1 forward, how is it even remotely possible for them to have a 60% chance in the reverse? I put the numbers down. In a draw where the goal is to not be drawn, the Rangers in every single drawing have a more chance at being drawn, or at best even. I showed you the numbers, and the numbers don't lie.

Wow, you really showed what you know about mathematical proofs.

The point of THAT example had nothing to do with percentages, I was just backing up the #2 claim in my proof-- taking ANY 48 ball outcome and picking them in the forward order <==> taking reverse order of that 48 ball outcome and using reverse elimination.

This has NOTHING to do with probabilities-- I had already shown in my first claim that any 48 ball outcome is equally as likely to happen as its reverse.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Wow, you really show what you knew about mathematical proofs.

The point of THAT example had nothing to do with percentages, I was just backing up the #2 claim in my proof-- taking ANY 48 ball outcome and picking them in the forward order <==> taking reverse order of that 48 ball outcome and using reverse elimination.

This has NOTHING to do with probabilities-- I had already shown in my first claim that any 48 ball outcome is equally as likely to happen as its reverse.

your claim is useless though since a forward lottery is done entirely different than how you explained. This isn't about mathmatical proofs, this is abouts odds and percentages. Shows what you know about lotteries. Take it from somebody who gambles, odds are everything. You apparently know nothing about odds.