Most overmatched 18 year old top picks that ended up becoming good players

[vadim sharifijanov]

so this is interesting —

Breaking Down Kaapo Kakko's Historically Bad Rookie Season


begs the question of who are the guys you remember coming in as a top draft pick at 18 and just being totally not ready for the NHL. and the follow up question of whether in the long run it was better for the kid to be in the league, or should he have been sent back to junior and/or his european team?

for example, i remember in 1990 all three of the top three were horrible. nolan, nedved, and primeau (while ricci scored 20/40 and jagr made the all-rookie team)

thornton also looked totally lost. lecavalier i don't remember as a rookie, but his stats say he wasn't as bad as thornton.

Click to read more...

 

[Michael Farkas]

It's lofty company that you set the bar with and part of the issue here was bad development and misuse, but how about teenage Nino Niederreiter on the Island...?

 

[Stephen]

I think it's Joe Thornton, bar none. A first overall pick who posts a 3 goal, 7 point year and goes on to have a 1600 + game career with over 1500 points and counting...

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Joe Thornton looked comically bad his rookie year.

And the optics were even worse with his teammate Samsonov winning the Calder

 

[MS]

The top 3 picks in 1990 (Nolan-Nedved-Primeau) combined for 44 points in 178 games with a -52 the following season.

All went on to fine NHL careers.

 

[Brodeur]

Adam Larsson started off decently (he turned 19 early into his rookie season) and was getting PP time to start. I forget when, but he kinda hit a wall and his TOI started going down and then he started getting scratched.

October 2011: 9 GP 0-0-0, -4, 23:43
November 2011: 14 GP 2-6-8, even, 21:32

(Kurtis Foster acquired to become PPQB)
December 2011: 12 GP, 0-5-5, -5, 20:37
January 2012: 12 GP, 0-3-3, +3, 22:10
February 2012: 3 GP, 0-0-0, -2, 18:21
March 2012: 14 GP, 0-2-2, +1, 17:28



Larsson then got hurt off a textbook hip check from Subban during a game in early February. Upon returning, his ice time went down considerably. The team would also acquire Marek Zidlicky at the trade deadline.



Larsson would be a healthy scratch for most of the playoffs but did contribute a big goal in Game 2 with the Flyers up 1 game to 0.

The following two seasons really messed with his confidence though. It was like there were two spots for Larsson, Jon Merrill, and Eric Gelinas which caused all three to play on egg shells. One factor was that assistant coach Larry Robinson left after the 2012 Finals and joined San Jose (I think he wanted to be closer geographically to his grandkids). Scott Stevens took over but reportedly there was some tension with him and DeBoer which led Stevens to resign.

Larsson turned a corner when Pete DeBoer was fired in December 2014. Scott Stevens was brought back to coach the defense and gave Larsson a heavy workload. There was a game where Larsson made a bad play in overtime which led to a John Tavares goal. If that had happened with DeBoer, Larsson would have been yanked from the lineup. But Stevens told Larsson to learn from it and kept putting him out there.

2014-15 (w/DeBoer): 18 GP, 1-3-4, -3, 16:23
2014-15 (w/Stevens): 46 GP, 2-18-20, +5, 22:45

Larsson's confidence was gradually built back up. The offense never materialized but he turned into a solid enough defensive defenseman for us. I can't say I've watched a ton of him in Edmonton though.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Thornton was the first that came to mind.

Stamkos was also interesting as a rookie. IIRC Barry Melrose took a lot of heat for sticking him on the 4th line.

 

[ted2019]

Thornton was the first that came to mind.

Stamkos was also interesting as a rookie. IIRC Barry Melrose took a lot of heat for sticking him on the 4th line.

He was made Stamkos a healthy scratch for several games.

 

[ted2019]

Jason Spezza
Olli Jokinen

 

[buffalowing88]

He was "only" 5th overall but a teenage Tim Connolly immediately entered the NHL and produced early on. Nothing too exciting but he became a two-way wizard with the puck. You don't see that every day from a guy who the Islanders essentially gave up on in the Peca trade. He's my favorite player of all-time and I know that it's quite an odd choice, but if he didn't go pro immediately and if he had a solid system to grow in, I honestly think he's a perpetual 80 point player. Rushed developments and injuries afterwards killed that. Still a nice career, though.

 

[JackSlater]

Thornton was definitely the first name that came to mind.

Shanahan struggled as an 18 year old, though not to Thornton levels. Tied for 13th in points on the mighty 1988 Devils and only 7 goals as an 18 year old. He's talked about how he was playing like a fourth line goon before Lamoriello set him straight.

 

[NyQuil]

Jason Spezza
Olli Jokinen

Jason Spezza was comically underemployed by Jacques Martin to massive derision by the Sens fan base.

I don’t think anyone was worried about his potential, he simply wasn’t given any good opportunities at all starting off his career.

The ELC benefit that the cap offers now means that most of the top talent gets infused into the main team as soon as it provides that competitive advantage.

Pre-cap, Martin had him toiling in the minors and on the 3rd and 4th lines in order to develop his “all-around” game.

Spezza turned the team’s fortunes around (temporarily) in the ECFs in 2003 with his long awaited playoff debut, sparking a comeback down 3-1 in the series that fell just short with 2 minutes left in Game 7.

Martin was seemingly reluctantly to put him in the lineup as the teams’ fans and rumour has it, team leadership demanded it.

I question whether he actually struggled - Martin had a very system oriented approach that favoured vets and defensive play.

When Murray took over, Spezza was the #1 C, albeit after a dominant AHL lockout performance.

 

[K Fleur]

Thornton was the first that came to mind.

Stamkos was also interesting as a rookie. IIRC Barry Melrose took a lot of heat for sticking him on the 4th line.

Yeah Melrose was an idiot of a coach. “You know what would be a good idea? Let’s play our big goal scoring #1 pick on the 4th line, that will really help him out”. Flashbacks for me of Ed Olczyk at times playing Sidney Crosby at wing his rookie season.

Stamkos played in 16 games with Melrose as his coach(3 more games he was scratched under Melrose)

In those 16 games Stamkos scored 2 goals and 2 assists and went -7.

He scored 21 goals and 21 assists in the 63 games after Melrose was fired.

 

[Voight]

Thornton was definitely the first name that came to mind.

Shanahan struggled as an 18 year old, though not to Thornton levels. Tied for 13th in points on the mighty 1988 Devils and only 7 goals as an 18 year old. He's talked about how he was playing like a fourth line goon before Lamoriello set him straight.

I remember reading that he and Lou had a really tough relationship at the start. I think there was one situation where right after the draft he wanted to attend his prom, Loui said no (I think maybe he wanted him to fly to Jersey for a meeting or something) and Shanny went anyways.

 

[frisco]

The thing about Kakko and J.Hughes is the relatively high amount of ice time and opportunity they got in their first seasons. I think Thornton was spotted in and out of the lineup his rookie year with barely ten minutes of ice when he played. Same with a few of the others like Owen Nolan where it is more of a question of not really getting the chance to play unlike Kakko/Hughes who were afforded that.

I'm not giving up on the two or anything but obviously if they would've showed a little more last year there would be more reason for optimism for them to turn into outstanding players. Olli Jokinen is a guy who didn't score ten goals until his fifth season and then the light went on and he had a really good career.

Leon Drasaitl didn't exactly tear up the league his draft year. He turned out OK though the Oilers showed the good sense to get him out of the NHL and back where he could build confidence.

My Best-Carey

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Yeah Melrose was an idiot of a coach. “You know what would be a good idea? Let’s play our big goal scoring #1 pick on the 4th line, that will really help him out”. Flashbacks for me of Ed Olczyk at times playing Sidney Crosby at wing his rookie season.

i always wonder, probably every fan of a team will always wonder, whether most coaches stubbornly just think a rookie HAS TO start on the fourth line or press box no matter what. whether it's showing a kid that he's not bigger than the team, or pacifying the precarious vets, or seeing what the kids is made of when the game isn't served to him on a silver platter, idk.

for ex, it was crystal clear that brock boeser belonged on the team but travis green sat him for the first two games of the regular season. elias pettersson scored then got the assist on the first two goals of his first NHL game, both early in the game, and he ended up playing less than ten minutes in that game. and it took ridiculously long for quinn hughes—quinn hughes—to become the regular point man on the pp last year, on a team with precisely zero other capable dmen to play that role. through it all, the fanbase is complaining that our coach, travis green, has his head up his ass.

whereas ray ferraro, who was one of green's vets when green was a rookie, is always saying how that's the process and travis came into the league as a high pick and hotshot scorer but he had turgeon and 40 goal ferraro playing ahead of him so al arbour was on him to master a checking role and as it turns out by the playoffs he was the guy checking mario.

we also talked for years about how marc crawford was holding the sedins back. i remember all the talk about how spezza or seguin or here in vancouver even cody hodgson deserved more icetime on contending teams. my guess is a quarter of the time the fans are right, a quarter of the time the coach knows something we don't know, and half the time something in the middle would be the best course of action. (like for example, how badger bob johnson put jagr in a position to succeed in his rookie year and jagr would complain about his icetime and being pulled off the ice late in games but he also was trusted to contribute, even on a stacked team with recchi, mullen, and scott young also playing his position.)

 

[Professor What]

Jason Spezza was comically underemployed by Jacques Martin to massive derision by the Sens fan base.

I don’t think anyone was worried about his potential, he simply wasn’t given any good opportunities at all starting off his career.

The ELC benefit that the cap offers now means that most of the top talent gets infused into the main team as soon as it provides that competitive advantage.

Pre-cap, Martin had him toiling in the minors and on the 3rd and 4th lines in order to develop his “all-around” game.

Spezza turned the team’s fortunes around (temporarily) in the ECFs in 2003 with his long awaited playoff debut, sparking a comeback down 3-1 in the series that fell just short with 2 minutes left in Game 7.

Martin was seemingly reluctantly to put him in the lineup as the teams’ fans and rumour has it, team leadership demanded it.

I question whether he actually struggled - Martin had a very system oriented approach that favoured vets and defensive play.

When Murray took over, Spezza was the #1 C, albeit after a dominant AHL lockout performance.

I remember that well. Martin's near refusal to give Spezza a chance really soured me on him as a coach. Since the fan base had been demanding to see more of Spezza, I remember having something of a "see, I told you so" feeling when he played as well as he did, and I remember wondering what might have been had the that spark been provided earlier in the series. I'm not saying it would have changed the outcome, but there was enough of a difference in the team's performance with him compared to without him that it does feel like it's within the realm of possibility.

But yeah, I don't think it's fair to Spezza to say that he struggled. He only played 33 games during his rookie season, and he had a solid 21 points. It wasn't elite production, obviously, but a teenager who can do that in the best league in the world is suggestive of a very solid player ahead.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

from my memory, what that ottawa team needed was to develop spezza during the regular season into a guy you could play and not worry about in the playoffs. he also showed natural chemistry with havlat.

but martin kept trying to move havlat to LW, which he wasn't very good at, and slot him on alfredsson's and hossa's lines, before settling on saddling schaefer and havlat with shaun van allen.

this was the cup winning roster he should have been working towards —

smolinski white alfredsson
arvedson bonk hossa
schaefer spezza havlat
varada van allen/fisher neil

redden rachunek
chara phillips
volchenkov leschyshyn/pothier

close your eyes and pray

 

[Albatros]

Kakko definitely wasn't ready, but calling him historically bad when he in fact performed as good or better than most other 2nd overalls is ridiculous.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I recall Stamkos showing some flashes his rookie season.

 

[Byron Bitz]

He was "only" 5th overall but a teenage Tim Connolly immediately entered the NHL and produced early on. Nothing too exciting but he became a two-way wizard with the puck. You don't see that every day from a guy who the Islanders essentially gave up on in the Peca trade. He's my favorite player of all-time and I know that it's quite an odd choice, but if he didn't go pro immediately and if he had a solid system to grow in, I honestly think he's a perpetual 80 point player. Rushed developments and injuries afterwards killed that. Still a nice career, though.

His highlight reel looks like that of a 90 point star. If it weren’t for that brutal hit in the Ottawa series he would have gone on to have a great career.