Speculation: Most likely to sign an offer sheet?

[Roomba With a Bauer]

With players being RFA until 7 years in the league/27 years old, and bridge deals being structured to keep players UFA until even longer, I am surprised that NHL GMs are not doing more offer sheets.

It's gonna be really hard to improve your team when players don't hit UFA until they are past their prime and trades are becoming rare.

It's like the NHL wants tanking to be the only way to build a contender.

 

[tjs*]

If you really want to offer sheet someone on the Lightning just wait until next summer and go after Drouin. He's the perfect target for it.

 

[Vanqu1sh]

Im with you, i think if theres an offer sheet coming, it will be toward tampa.

They have to sign the offer sheet though and Tampas really good for matching cap hits. And it seems they're getting players to buy in to utilizing that to get stacked.

 

[vipera1960]

Can players who file for arbitration still be offer sheeted?

Tomorrow is the deadline to file for arbitration and Hoffman is expected to file for it.

No, one arbitration has been decided a player can no longer sign an offer sheet. That's why the Preds elected arbitration with Weber.

 

[trick9]

I'll be shocked if Kucherov agrees to sign an offer-sheet. Especially for numbers mentioned here. I think he could get Tarasenko -lite (or slightly lesser) contract from Tampa which is propably his preferred destination too. I haven't seen any news that he would want to leave.

Obviously he would sign though if someone started offering ridiculous numbers, like 7/9 but if you are stupid enough to offer that then better be prepared to pay the price and try to live with that contract long-term.

 

[Alklha]

With players being RFA until 7 years in the league/27 years old, and bridge deals being structured to keep players UFA until even longer, I am surprised that NHL GMs are not doing more offer sheets.

It's gonna be really hard to improve your team when players don't hit UFA until they are past their prime and trades are becoming rare.

It's like the NHL wants tanking to be the only way to build a contender.

Salary cap.

For an offer sheet not to be matched, you are overpaying for the player. Teams overpay in UFA, but there is no asset cost in doing that. Overpaying a RFA means lost draft picks, with ELC's being the best way to keep costs down.

The other factor is that it is in all teams interests to have RFA's signed at low prices. Once you start pushing up prices, your own RFA's get higher expectations and they have more favourable comparable a when it comes to arbitration.

 

[TOGuy14]

I predict that nobody will be successfully offersheeted. Just like last year and the year before that.

Wouldn't at all be surprised if most gms hate using offersheets.

Guess it depends on what is a "successful offer sheet"

Many young players have been moved in recent years because of the threat of offer sheet. Sure they didn't sign one the traditional way (ROR), but the possibility was so strong that their GMs traded them before it could happen

 

[Moosetache]

As I saw someone mention on my board, how about offer sheeting both Kucherov AND Killorn?

Though I think 4 mil might be a bit much for a guy who had 40 points this year, playing on that team. No idea what that turns into on a team like the Canes....could be 30 playing with lesser players. Could also be 50 getting more prime offensive time.

 

[Tsundere]

I don't think Kucherov wants to leave TB. Palat and Johnson are two of his best friends. TB is a contender and he just saw his captain and best Dman take pay cuts to stay here. Also offer sheets are just bad karma. I think it's one of those unspoken rules for GMs. Don't touch our RFAs we won't touch yours.

In this situation, I don't think Tampa would be able to threaten to offersheet opposing teams with the way their next off-season looks... If anything, they can get a follow-up offersheet for players like Drouin/Johnson next off-season too... I personally would like to see if there's a GM that has the balls to offersheet Kucherov this year and Drouin the next; Yzerman wouldn't be able to retaliate at least not for a few years.

 

[SenzZen]

There Will Be Barn Fights

 

[aemoreira1981]

Seeing that Minnesota only has $6 million to sign 5 more players. An OS on Dumba might not be a bad thing.

This times 1000! Dumba can be offer-sheeted in the $5M or so range (where it costs just a first and third) and put Minnesota in a bind. I'm surprised that Sweeney hasn't considered it.

 

[topshelf15]

No, one arbitration has been decided a player can no longer sign an offer sheet. That's why the Preds elected arbitration with Weber.

Then Hoffman wont be getting a offersheet,arbitration has been filed.
Probably one of those deals that get done just before the hearing

 

[COHawk]

This id give him a 7 by 7 and force Tampa to match it.

Is he worth 4 first rounders?

 

[Flat Ronnie]

Just out of curiosity, why does anyone think Kucherov is a possibility?

 

[The Macho King]

Give him 7.3 X 4(which basically brings him to UFA status) if you really want to screw over Tampa. lol

Why would he take a 4 year contract?

You all realize that the player has to agree to the contract, right?

 

[Major Happy*]

Why would he take a 4 year contract?

You all realize that the player has to agree to the contract, right?

His post says why...

 

[The Macho King]

His post says why...

It's a stupid reason.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Salary cap.

For an offer sheet not to be matched, you are overpaying for the player. Teams overpay in UFA, but there is no asset cost in doing that. Overpaying a RFA means lost draft picks, with ELC's being the best way to keep costs down.

The other factor is that it is in all teams interests to have RFA's signed at low prices. Once you start pushing up prices, your own RFA's get higher expectations and they have more favourable comparable a when it comes to arbitration.

I like this poster he summed up why ufas are overpaid.

If I was a GM I'd be guilty of using offersheets though.
I definitly feel they are worth it

 

[NeedleInTheHay]

It's a stupid reason.

It's stupid to sign until you're a first time UFA?

When the cap is up, and you can makes boatloads of money, how is that stupid?

 

[The Macho King]

I like this poster he summed up why ufas are overpaid.

If I was a GM I'd be guilty of using offersheets though.
I definitly feel they are worth it

We don't really know how often Offer Sheets are offered, though. It requires a few different factors to work.

1 - Stalled negotiations between player and current team
2 - Bad enough blood that player wants to go elsewhere
3 - offer that is (probably) significantly above what being offered by current team
4 - reasonable confidence from offering team that either a) team isn't going to match, or b) if team matches, the picks given won't be worth more than the player coming.
5 - offering team possesses all of the required picks (their own picks)

Let's use Kucherov as a comparable. You can bracket his market value between forsberg and Tarasenko - so between 6 and 7.5 million over 6 to 8 years. I think all of those are 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd (I think). So a team has to have the cap space to offer it, the picks to offer. Very few competitors have over 6 million in cap space, and Tampa would match that offer in a second. On the high end, fewer have 7.5 million or above. So a team that gets Kucherov has to be reasonably confident that Tampa won't match and Kucherov is the difference between picking top 5 and picking ~top 12 so the value doesn't get messed up.

It's a gamble. And it is one that if I were a GM I'd be VERY hesitant about making. I'd do it pretty much for elite #1Ds or Elite #1Cs, or relatively cheap players that fall below the first round compensation bracket.

 

[Poochie_D]

Give him 7.3 X 4(which basically brings him to UFA status) if you really want to screw over Tampa. lol

Not sure why teams don't do this more often. I understand it's a bit dirty but this is the NHL. Win at any cost. If that mean weaken others so be it.

 

[Jeffrey]

We don't really know how often Offer Sheets are offered, though. It requires a few different factors to work.

1 - Stalled negotiations between player and current team
2 - Bad enough blood that player wants to go elsewhere
3 - offer that is (probably) significantly above what being offered by current team
4 - reasonable confidence from offering team that either a) team isn't going to match, or b) if team matches, the picks given won't be worth more than the player coming.
5 - offering team possesses all of the required picks (their own picks)

Let's use Kucherov as a comparable. You can bracket his market value between forsberg and Tarasenko - so between 6 and 7.5 million over 6 to 8 years. I think all of those are 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd (I think). So a team has to have the cap space to offer it, the picks to offer. Very few competitors have over 6 million in cap space, and Tampa would match that offer in a second. On the high end, fewer have 7.5 million or above. So a team that gets Kucherov has to be reasonably confident that Tampa won't match and Kucherov is the difference between picking top 5 and picking ~top 12 so the value doesn't get messed up.

It's a gamble. And it is one that if I were a GM I'd be VERY hesitant about making. I'd do it pretty much for elite #1Ds or Elite #1Cs, or relatively cheap players that fall below the first round compensation bracket.

I would do it.. what are the chances on getting a Kucherov even with a top 5 picks?

He is also very young and he is an exciting player.

 

[The Macho King]

Not sure why teams don't do this more often. I understand it's a bit dirty but this is the NHL. Win at any cost. If that mean weaken others so be it.

Because you don't really deal with other GMs at arms length. There's a competitive aspect, but there's also a cooperative aspect. You have to make trades with these people, and you have to at least pretend you're looking for something that's mutually beneficial. You may want permission to interview their assistant coaches/gms/minor league coaches in the future. You want to trade picks and prospects with them. Moreover, you just opened yourself up to the same type of attacks from everyone else, but without them suffering the same type of reputation hit.

All of that gets a lot harder when you get a reputation for trying to **** everyone else over. It's the first thing you learn in negotiations - look for something that is mutually beneficial if you're going to have to go back to that well over and over again.

 

[Moosetache]

Is he worth 4 first rounders?

View attachment 90791

Its not 4 1sts though....its a 1, 2 and 3 up to 7.5 mil AAV.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

We don't really know how often Offer Sheets are offered, though.

It's a gamble. And it is one that if I were a GM I'd be VERY hesitant about making. I'd do it pretty much for elite #1Ds or Elite #1Cs, or relatively cheap players that fall below the first round compensation bracket.

See I'm only offering the sheets to players like lindholm Kucherov drouin

Players that are top end proven players. It's fine though it'd mostly a pipe dream I understand why GMS rarely use them