Speculation: More players worth a 1st round pick than picks in play.

Dooble08

Registered User
Jan 12, 2019
1,576
944
Ottawa traded Erik ****ing Karlsson for pennies on the dollar, what makes you think they'll get top dollar for those two? They won't. They absolutely have to trade Duchene who won't be re-signing and they're already losing leverage with the failed contract negotiations and the impending scratch on Thursday. They're likely going to trade him a few days before the deadline and in doing so, set the maximum price for any non Panarin/Stone rental. Given Ottawa's very poor history in trades, it's fairly safe to assume that they'll set that price pretty low.

Tatar at last year's trade deadline isn't really relevant because Tatar had term and he was one of the best players to be traded at the deadline. When Detroit trades a similar player in Gustav Nyquist as a rental who isn't top-3 in his TDL class, they're going to get a much weaker return.

If you're going to go around citing last year's trade deadline, why don't you remind us of Evander Kane? He was the best rental on the market, and he was traded for a conditional 1st, a 4th, and a D prospect. The trade deadline is a bit of a crapshoot and it's possible

Glad you brought an irrelevant trade into the mix. Karlsson was traded in the off season. Like I mentioned before you NEVER get players at the trade deadline for pennies on the dollar. I mean you brought up the Karlsson and Tatar trades in the same post. I mean from an outside perspective, they are fairly similar deals. So are you going to tell me that Karlsson and Tatar are similar players with similar skill? Nope, Vegas made a quick, spot purchase at 11:59 when they failed to convince Ottawa to trade Karlsson to them. More proof of this is the fact that Tatar didn't fit with their team, had 6 points in 20 regular season games, 2 points in 8 playoff games, then was traded to the Canadiens. (Also stating that a trade that happened at the trade deadline isn't relevant to other trades that happen at the trade deadline is just plain asinine :laugh:)

Yup. Evander Kane (who is nowhere near as good as Panarin, Stone, or Duchene) was traded for a conditional 1st based on him resigning with the Sharks. Continuing in citing last year's trade deadline, don't turn a blind eye on the fact that Ryan Hartman returned a 1st round pick. This year Brian Boyle has already been traded for a 2nd round pick. I guess that's an irrelevant trade as well. But since it isn't, if Philadelphia and Carolina decide to trade Simmonds and Ferland, they will get larger packages than a 2nd round pick.

Every single year, we (hockey community) speak about 10-15 guys who could potentially be traded. When deadline day comes, only 3-5 of them actually get traded. The hauls that are brought in by the trades are fairly decent/above average. The exact same thing is going to happen here. 10-15 guys that you mentioned in your original reply, 3-5 of them will actually be traded, 3-5 of them will return 1st round picks or equivalent value.
 

b in vancouver

Registered User
Jul 28, 2005
7,840
5,693
The amazing thing is....no matter who picks up who, that said team will still not be stronger than Tampa. This is the year (unless you are super close) to skip. Teams like Montreal and the Islanders in the East plus all those teams fighting in the west to make the playoffs should not be giving up the farm.

Ya, I was thinking that if Tampa made a move early they might scare off some Eastern teams from giving up too many assets this year. - However I don't see it getting any easier over the next few seasons in the playoffs out East.
The Bruins are in a tough position because with the right moves #2RW, #3C, they could really close the gap with TBay but their playoffs is going to look like murder's row again. Traded their first last year, and although I liked the Nash deal, you can't do that every year.
Toronto's going to have the same tough sledding the playoffs as Boston but was understandable why they moved their first as they've got to try to at least get past the first round.
 

fsanford

Registered User
Jul 4, 2009
7,498
2,875
Will see what happens, but based on this thread, kind of glad Blake pulled off the deal when he did.
 

Volica

Papa Shango
May 15, 2012
21,391
11,074
I think we will see a lot of disappointed fan bases in a week, big players going for far below value, extended a year, or not traded at all

I have this feeling as well.
Some guys won't be moved at all. Other guys will get something below market value.

Both fan sides will be unhappy; outside of the team that got deadline value adds.

Essentially it'll be:
Team that gets player at good value: 'Amazing, wow, can't believe it!'
Team that trades player at shit value: 'How could that idiot not get more!?'
Team that doesn't trade player because values were shit: 'My f***ing God, could our idiot GM at least not get SOMETHING for nothing?!"
Team that doesn't trade for a player because they were unwilling to pay a premium and other teams weren't willing to let go of their players: 'Why can't our GM be more like GM X?! He got a total steal!'

Circle of life. And it moves us all.
 
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Lunatik

Normal is an illusion.
Oct 12, 2012
56,177
8,337
Padded Room
Ottawa will end up holding onto duchene and stone and lose them both for nothing. Dorian is playing chicken with a train while his boots are tied to the tracks.
I think he still sells, but for cheap. He's going to hold up the market, then teams will go elsewhere... then he'll be like "oh shit!" and get a poor return. Or as I described it before, He'll be like Wile E. Coyote chasing the roadrunner.
 

Just Linda

Registered User
Feb 24, 2018
6,632
6,506
I have this feeling as well.
Some guys won't be moved at all. Other guys will get something below market value.

Both fan sides will be unhappy; outside of the team that got deadline value adds.

Essentially it'll be:
Team that gets player at good value: 'Amazing, wow, can't believe it!'
Team that trades player at **** value: 'How could that idiot not get more!?'
Team that doesn't trade player because values were ****: 'My ****ing God, could our idiot GM at least not get SOMETHING for nothing?!"
Team that doesn't trade for a player because they were unwilling to pay a premium and other teams weren't willing to let go of their players: 'Why can't our GM be more like GM X?! He got a total steal!'

Circle of life. And it moves us all.

Absolutely.

I feel like we've moved into the next era where big trades don't happen at the deadline. Teams value their first rounders far more now and GMs generally have better ideas what to expect before the season starts. I think in a few years we will see UFAs at the deadline being a rare thing with teams choosing to acquire rentals before the season starts rather than during it.
 

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