TransportedUpstater said:
Whether Kessel will be better in the future is open to discussion. I may be wrong, but I thought that the recent few posts were discussing the two kids at the present time, in which Phil is a superior player.
First, while spirited, at least this has been a civil discussion, so thanks to everyone for that.
Two months ago, it would have been true to say the above. Right now, I don't think so. I am admittedly biased, but having watched both players over the last few weeks (and Kessel all year), there's no way I trade Toews for Kessel right now. Toews has closed the gap in terms of his impact on the game. He is very good offensively - averaging 1.5 points per game down the stretch in the NCAAs at age 17 is just unheard of - and he still makes the smart play all over the rink.
Toews is six months younger than Kessel, which is hardly worth even mentioning, but it seems like more when you think that Kessel played amost all of his NCAA freshman year at 18, while Toews will play all of his at age 17. So was Kessel pretty well ahead of Toews in October and through January? Yes. Well, Toews is now around the age Kessel was when the year started, and lo and behold, Toews is twice the player he (Toews) was when the season started.
On Kessel, he has continued to get better away from the puck, and more and more he makes the smarter, safer play with the puck. The "stupidity" everyone saw in the WJC, turning it over trying a move that had little chance of working instead of getting it deep, is less of an issue every game. I know it's a shocking prospect, but he's actually developing as a prospect. Aside from the blazing speed, his best feature is a one-timer pass he makes, especially on the PP. Someone moves it to him and he rockets a pass to an open man (almost always Potulny) before the defense has a chance to close the passing lane and before the goalie can get over. Potulny has a gift for catching hot passes, so they make a nice combo. Anyway, you have to be able to see the ice to make that pass as consistently as he does. One other significant observation on Kessel is that, while he can fire a blistering wrist shot on the fly, he never hits the net. Most of his goals this year have been cleaning up garbage around the net. Not that there's anything wrong with that, it's just different than I expected.
Toews does not have the speed, but his hands are right there with Kessel's, as is his vision, shot, etc. Lately, Toews has fallen in love with the "perfect play," and has been passing when he's in a prime shooting spot. He did it once in each game last weekend, and it was the classic one pass too many in each case. Of course he also did it for UND's first goal Friday, and when Duncan got the puck the goalie was nowhere to be seen. [Zajac has had the same affliction lately. Something in the Winnipeg water that breeds this unselfishness?] Toews also gets knocked to his butt in every game, just planted by some defenseman, but if there's ever a place where youth is going to show that is it (strength). He wins the puck along the boards a lot, which is surprising given the strength issue.
In terms of their futures, if Kessel's game continues to mature as it has this year, and you have a smart player with his speed and hands, well it's no wonder why everyone is excited. Plus, while he's not "big," he's not small either; he's a normal sized human being, which actually works in hockey.
Toews is going to be bigger, he's already good along the boards and shifty as heck with the puck. For a long time, people said, "why is Toews even in the discussion? None of the rating services have him up with Kessel." Well, now ISS has JT second and PK third, and Redline says the top grouping of players is now three deep, not just two. People then said, potential is one thing, but production matters. Well, now Toews has begun matching Kessel's production. Yes, it was for a "stretch," but we're talking about kids who are in a very steep part of their development curve. It's not like we're talking about a hot streak for a 25-year old. We're talking about kids who are much better players than they were six moths ago.
All that said, I hope Kessel get picked higher and leaves college a year earlier.