Monty's next contract

imjustzach

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May 9, 2018
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What do people think Monty's next contract will look like? Does management bridge him with a prove-it contract or do they go for something long term?

I think the ducks are in an ideal position as he had good offensive production but his defense wasn't stellar. Furthermore he only has 1 full year of NHL experience so there's not really a case for "consistency" in his production, especially since his offensive production fell off after the beginning of the year.

I think he's probably asking for 6x$5-5.5m while the Ducks are trying to peg him in at 6x$4 (Manson AAV). Since he has the point production that Manson didn't show until after his contract was signed, I think he ends up with a 2 year prove-it contract at a lower AAV.

In my ideal (realistic) world, he gets a similar AAV to Manson; something along the lines of 4-5yrs x $4-4.25m. I think Montour is the real deal and a long-term $4-4.5m AAV is going to be a steal as he gets older. I think a 4-year term is ideal as this gives the Ducks the ability to get team-friendly AAV for a few years as well as leaving Montour with prime timing to ask for a lucrative contract in the middle of his prime at 28 when the contract ends.

Edit: Title spelling on point. :ha:
 

AngelDuck

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Depends if he's betting on himself or not. No one can get inside these guys' heads and see if they're risk averse or risk loving.

I wouldn't blame him either way personally. Tough to pass up a guaranteed nice contract for 5 years. Also would sting if you put yourself in a Rakell situation.
 
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Zegs2sendhelp

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Depends if he's betting on himself or not. No one can get inside these guys' heads and see if they're risk averse or risk loving.

I wouldn't blame him either way personally. Tough to pass up a guaranteed nice contract for 5 years. Also would sting if you put yourself in a Rakell situation.
He probably sees the rakell contract and don't want to get in that situation... but I think something around what manson got would get it done.
 

caliamad

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It's all about comparables.

He got 32 points in 80 games and played 20.5 minutes / game.
In the post season, that went up 25 minutes / game.

The only player in his draft year to get more points than him last year is Ekbad who had 38. After these 2, the next guy has 13.

Hanafin is draft year +1 and got 32 points.

Fowler / Brodie also got around 32 points.

He is gonna get paid.
 

rlstine

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Jun 14, 2017
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There's a guy on twitter, Matt Cane, who does contract projections and he usually gets ridiculously close.

For Montour he has the most likely contract being 2 years at 2.6 million and the second most likely being 4 years at 4.2.
 
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Experience is apparently a pretty big factor as well, so that might even out his point totals. Overall the best comparable is Colin Miller who just signed a 4 year deal(buying two UFA years I believe) for under $4 million, so that bodes pretty decently for us. My best guess might be a five year deal for $4 million on the nose, keeps it below Mansons and avoids a clustered summer of 2022.
 
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Zegs2sendhelp

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Experience is apparently a pretty big factor as well, so that might even out his point totals. Overall the best comparable is Colin Miller who just signed a 4 year deal(buying two UFA years I believe) for under $4 million, so that bodes pretty decently for us. My best guess might be a five year deal for $4 million on the nose, keeps it below Mansons and avoids a clustered summer of 2022.

Id be perfectly fine with that... Montour is going to be a stud for the next 10 years.
 

imjustzach

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May 9, 2018
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It's all about comparables.

He got 32 points in 80 games and played 20.5 minutes / game.
In the post season, that went up 25 minutes / game.

The only player in his draft year to get more points than him last year is Ekbad who had 38. After these 2, the next guy has 13.

Hanafin is draft year +1 and got 32 points.

Fowler / Brodie also got around 32 points.

He is gonna get paid.

You bring up a good point in terms of ATOI. His comparables are definitely very strong and I think that's 100% what his agent is walking into negotiations with as his main weapon.

On the flip side, GMBM is probably going to point to the lack of history and point to the risk of the year being an outlier instead of the norm.

Montour's agent probably tries to draw the comparable w/ guys like Slavin or Ekblad (over $5m AAV). GMBM probably looks at a guy like Colin Miller (age 25) who put up a 55pt season (102 games) and just signed 4x$3.875m.

Edit: Basically exactly what The Mighty Duck Man said. Father, is that you?
 

Paul4587

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In terms of comparables i would say Ryan Pulock is a pretty good comparison. Montour is the better player of the two but not by a huge amount (yet) so if he’s bridged I could see somewhere in the 2-2.5 range.

If he wants term maybe somewhere around $4M over 6 years.
 
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Arthuros

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I would not think he's asking 5.5M AAV.

I would believe him asking for 4.5, the Ducks setting it at 3, and it ending up at 3.75 - 4M.
 

imjustzach

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May 9, 2018
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I would not think he's asking 5.5M AAV.

I would believe him asking for 4.5, the Ducks setting it at 3, and it ending up at 3.75 - 4M.

I don't think his agent is asking $5.5m thinking he's gonna land $5.5m. He's probably asking $5.5 trying to land $5. GMBM probably comes in at $3 targeting $3.5. They probably land somewhere in the middle for 4-5 years, or much, much lower if they decide to bridge.
 

WhatTheDuck

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Agreed but I wouldn't mind having another Rakell-value contract on the books. :D

That would be ideal to say the least!

I would hope the Ducks are trying to lock him to that type of long term deal, and have to think the Montour camp are looking for a short term bridge to maximize future earning potential.

If I'm correct that he's four years from UFA status, then I'd say that four or five year deal are less than ideal from a team perspective, we'd definitely be wanting the Rakell style 6+ year deal to buy up a couple UFA years.

I'm wondering if a three year, Gibson style bridge might be a fair compromise. I believe that would expire in his final year of RFA control so he's able to cash in on a mostly UFA contract at whatever star rate he's earned by then.

The Ducks likely lose the opportunity to buy up cheap UFA years, but could still get very nice value right away if he has a big break out, and delay the big raise until the end of Perry's contract.
 

imjustzach

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May 9, 2018
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That would be ideal to say the least!

I would hope the Ducks are trying to lock him to that type of long term deal, and have to think the Montour camp are looking for a short term bridge to maximize future earning potential.

If I'm correct that he's four years from UFA status, then I'd say that four or five year deal are less than ideal from a team perspective, we'd definitely be wanting the Rakell style 6+ year deal to buy up a couple UFA years.

I'm wondering if a three year, Gibson style bridge might be a fair compromise. I believe that would expire in his final year of RFA control so he's able to cash in on a mostly UFA contract at whatever star rate he's earned by then.

The Ducks likely lose the opportunity to buy up cheap UFA years, but could still get very nice value right away if he has a big break out, and delay the big raise until the end of Perry's contract.

I think he has 3 years to age 27 so I think either they bridge him on 2 years or they go long term (6+). Obviously Montour's camp would want 3 years to expire on his first UFA year which is why I think they land on 4-5 years at ~$4m AAV
 

WhatTheDuck

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I think he has 3 years to age 27 so I think either they bridge him on 2 years or they go long term (6+). Obviously Montour's camp would want 3 years to expire on his first UFA year which is why I think they land on 4-5 years at ~$4m AAV

Had it in my head he was only 23, definitely would think our best options are 2 years or 5+ then.
 
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Masch78

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Oct 5, 2017
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Dumba got a 5 year deal worth 30m. Ouch!

OT: Dumba in year 1 and 2 after the draft wasn't so much better than Josh Mahura. This will be a interesting training camp. Larsson, Mahura and Pettersson for the one spot.
 
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Duck Off

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In terms of comparables i would say Ryan Pulock is a pretty good comparison. Montour is the better player of the two but not by a huge amount (yet) so if he’s bridged I could see somewhere in the 2-2.5 range.

If he wants term maybe somewhere around $4M over 6 years.

If Montour is good with 4 million for 6 years, Murray better take that and run
 
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