Proposal: Montreal-Calgary

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TheImpatientPanther

Florida Flukin Panthers > LTIR Maple Leafs
Jan 17, 2013
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Seems like a good amount of value going both ways but not sure if MON will unload so much future.
They'd probably just try and target Hanifin alone in exchange for offense/forwards no?
 

Just Linda

Registered User
Feb 24, 2018
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to Calgary:
Artturi Lehkonen
Ryan Poehling
Victor Mete
Charlie Lindgren

to Montreal:
Noah Hanifin
Sam Bennett

Let's break this done into pieces.

Lindgren - value is very very low. I'll remove him for now.

Poehling + Lehkonen for Bennett
and
Mete for Hanifan

I dunno. Bennett has a lot of untapped potential but Hanifan is a clear upgrade for what Montreal needs most. I really don't like this trade from Montreal's perspective but would have to reluctantly say yes. Calgary those would likely say no for the same reason.

Something based around Mete+ for Hanifan probably makes more sense for both.
 

HabsMD97

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Jun 30, 2014
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Let's break this done into pieces.

Lindgren - value is very very low. I'll remove him for now.

Poehling + Lehkonen for Bennett
and
Mete for Hanifan

I dunno. Bennett has a lot of untapped potential but Hanifan is a clear upgrade for what Montreal needs most. I really don't like this trade from Montreal's perspective but would have to reluctantly say yes. Calgary those would likely say no for the same reason.

Something based around Mete+ for Hanifan probably makes more sense for both.

Lehkonen has been better than Bennett for the past 3 years + this year. He's also better defensively and we're adding Peohling on top of that?
Both hanifin and mete are 2nd pairing defensemen right now while mete is a year younger (and much cheaper) no point in trading the two. The whole point of getting LHD is to ADD to what we have not remove a top4 for another top 4 when it isn't a significant difference. Even if you think Hanifin is better, the difference is not Peohling, not even close when you consider lehkonen is better than bennett.
 

Just Linda

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Feb 24, 2018
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Lehkonen has been better than Bennett for the past 3 years + this year. He's also better defensively and we're adding Peohling on top of that?
Both hanifin and mete are 2nd pairing defensemen right now while mete is a year younger (and much cheaper) no point in trading the two. The whole point of getting LHD is to ADD to what we have not remove a top4 for another top 4 when it isn't a significant difference. Even if you think Hanifin is better, the difference is not Peohling, not even close when you consider lehkonen is better than bennett.

Agree to disagree on this one. Hanifan is more of a low level 2d imho, I do believe the difference is Poehling between him and Mete.
 

HabsMD97

Registered User
Jun 30, 2014
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Agree to disagree on this one. Hanifan is more of a low level 2d imho, I do believe the difference is Poehling between him and Mete.
This is just this year though, i don't have access to the previous years. Hanifin is obviously better offensively, but Mete is a year younger and has improved every year. He's already a 2nd pairing d as a 21 year old and he still has a lot of room to grow. I'd love to get Hanifin but right now he isn't a 1st pairing guy which is what we need. He has the potential to be a top pairing guy eventually but it's not at the cost of mete (who also has the potential to be a top pairing d) + peohling
Mete.png
Hanifin.png
 
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Just Linda

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This is just this year though, i don't have access to the previous years. Hanifin is obviously better offensively, but Mete is a year younger and has improved every year. He's already a 2nd pairing d as a 21 year old and he still has a lot of room to grow. I'd love to get Hanifin but right now he isn't a 1st pairing guy which is what we need. He has the potential to be a top pairing guy eventually but it's not at the cost of mete (who also has the potential to be a top pairing d) + peohling
View attachment 279391 View attachment 279393

I get what you are saying but those heat maps don't say quite what you think they do.

1) Bill Peters vs CJ
2) Harmonic vs Petry/Julien

First thing I noticed in the heat maps is that the biggest difference comes from the areas where the centreman comes back to support.

Honestly with how different the teams are and how different the systems are, WOWY would probably be a better representation.

(Also, my phone auto corrects the name harmonic so I'm too lazy today to fix it lol
 

RationalExpectations

Registered User
May 12, 2019
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I understand what you are trading to do, and that is not a bad idea:
- slight D improvement at MTL
- slight Forward improvement at CGY

I do not know Bennett, so I cannot comment on the forward part, but from what I know, it is more depth that MTL does not need.

Regading Hanifin, he does not seem to be as good as he was in CAR but a change of scenery may be good for him. I doubt however that the difference between Mete and Hanifin as of today is Poehling ;)

Generally both fan bases won't like such deals because each tend to (slightly) overestimate their players (and I guess I am not different) :)
 
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Bounces R Way

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Nov 18, 2013
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I like Poehling a lot but this is a fairly comfortable no. Hanifin is still very very young and is on a good value deal. I prefer Bennett to Lehkonen even if it's more or less a wash production wise.

Lehkonen and Poehling both shoot left and the Flames forward group currently has two RHS players in it total. TWO. Lindgren is not really anything. Just doesn't make a lot of sense needs wise.
 

HabsMD97

Registered User
Jun 30, 2014
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I get what you are saying but those heat maps don't say quite what you think they do.

1) Bill Peters vs CJ
2) Harmonic vs Petry/Julien

First thing I noticed in the heat maps is that the biggest difference comes from the areas where the centreman comes back to support.

Honestly with how different the teams are and how different the systems are, WOWY would probably be a better representation.

(Also, my phone auto corrects the name harmonic so I'm too lazy today to fix it lol

Bill Peters is one of the better coaches in the league. He had calgary 1st in the west last year and has always had strong possession teams. Calgary was actually better defensively than mtl last year and for the most part have brought back the same team. Mtl as well hasnt had major changes in personel. Analytics community by and large know raditional wowy stats are quite misleading. Using wowy numbers on drasaitl for example would paint him as a much worse player than he actually is. Mete has been on the 1st pairing facing the toughest matchups for most of the season, yet mete's has had better defensive metrics. Mete leads the team in +/- with a +9 while hanifin is 2nd worse on his team with a -11(if you believe in plus and minus) historically, hanifin has not played tough minutes and has never been great defensively. Mete has started almost 58% of his shifts (not counting on the fly shifts) in the defensive and still puts up strong numbers. Hanifin is around 55% so he is facing difficult zone starts as well but is not doing as well in them. Mete has a 10.62 xGA while Hanifin has a 14.99 xGA. You can still say hanifin is better if you like but he is not a 1st pairing guy and if im trading mete its for a top pairing d since mete right now is an above average to good #4 and being only 21 and the fact he has improved every season shows he has the potential to be more.
 
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Just Linda

Registered User
Feb 24, 2018
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Bill Peters is one of the better coaches in the league. He had calgary 1st in the west last year and has always had strong possession teams. Calgary was actually better defensively than mtl last year and for the most part have brought back the same team. Mtl as well hasnt had major changes in personel. Analytics community by and large know raditional wowy stats are quite misleading. Using wowy numbers on drasaitl for example would paint him as a much worse player than he actually is. Mete has been on the 1st pairing facing the toughest matchups for most of the season, yet mete's has had better defensive metrics. Mete leads the team in +/- with a +9 while hanifin is 2nd worse on his team with a -11(if you believe in plus and minus) historically, hanifin has not played tough minutes and has never been great defensively. Mete has started almost 58% of his shifts (not counting on the fly shifts) in the defensive and still puts up strong numbers. Hanifin is around 55% so he is facing difficult zone starts as well but is not doing as well in them. Mete has a 10.62 xGA while Hanifin has a 14.99 xGA. You can still say hanifin is better if you like but he is not a 1st pairing guy and if im trading mete its for a top pairing d since mete right now is an above average to good #4 and being only 21 and the fact he has improved every season shows he has the potential to be more.

WOWY only paints Drai as horrible if McDavid is being compared to him. Numbers need context, always. Remove McDavid and compare Drai to RNH is probably the easiest views to get on a team like the Oilers. Like all stats you don't take them at face value, they need context.

Bill Peters is a bottom 7 coach in the league. His possession stats are inflated with strong possession players and a lot of focus on overall stats and not specific stats. Calgary overperformed last year with so many players having career years and unsustainable shooting percents.

In bill Peter's coaching history he has only managed to have one goalie play one season above their average. He protects high danger shots (even then not exceedingly well) by having his players suck back. Even now, Calgary has 5 players in the top 50 for blocked shots (maybe 6 now, it's been a week since I last looked). In the modern NHL, a high team value of blocked shots is a bad thing because it shows that shooters are not bring challenged and good teams take away the shooting space of their opponents. The game evolved to where you can't let any good shooter have the time and space to set up his shots and get good looks but Peter's system is passive so it let's that happen. Hes gotten the flames slightly better at not being a perimeter team like his Carolina teams were but they are still not a top 10 team in that regard.

Peters is the biggest reason Calgary is struggling.
 

jfhabs

Registered User
May 21, 2015
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Let's break this done into pieces.

Lindgren - value is very very low. I'll remove him for now.

Poehling + Lehkonen for Bennett
and
Mete for Hanifan

I dunno. Bennett has a lot of untapped potential but Hanifan is a clear upgrade for what Montreal needs most. I really don't like this trade from Montreal's perspective but would have to reluctantly say yes. Calgary those would likely say no for the same reason.

Something based around Mete+ for Hanifan probably makes more sense for both.
Mete + Poehling Vs Hanifin
Lehkonen Vs Bennett

That would make a lot more sense if you want to break it down imo. Would love Hanifin, but it seems like Mete is emerging lately. Lehkonen is better then Bennett imo.
 

jfhabs

Registered User
May 21, 2015
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Hanifin is already a very promising young #2 dman, who can grow into a #1. We’re not trading him for anything short of a topline C or a player that has very likely potential to be that.
Hanifin is a number 2? Really?
I would say top 4 for sure, but don't think he's a number 2 defenseman. Normally a decent number 2 plays 24-25 min a game, he's averaged 20:46 last year and 21:18 this year. Doesn't seem to have a top 2 D offensive game either, althought I've seen him make some nice moves he doesn't seem to bring it constantly. I really don't think you can get a top line C for Hanifin...
 
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