Mo Rielly - "Our Norris Trophy Candidate"

[Stephen]

Hamilton is going to get 8m+ easy, it would be real hard to cobble that kind of cap space together. An equally big question for the cap will be how our goaltending shakes out. We're counting on some of the Andersen savings to fit in Hyman, but if we need to get a more stable goaltending solution there's no real way to pay for that and Hamilton without a huge trade at forward as well.

I'm not completely opposed to that course of action, but it turns into an enormous shakeup.

Well it’s going to be Rielly’s $5 million out and after next year Kessel’s $1.2 million comes off. Depending on how Muzzin and Holl perform in his hypothetical big offseason I would look at a larger D budget shift and bring up Sandin and Liljegren so it would be a revamped blueline for sure before touching the Andersen Hyman and goalie factors. And there’s always Kerfoot.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

That Holl stat surprises me... had to double check

GA/60 5v5

Holl 2.8
Muzzin 2.3
Rielly 2.2
Dermott 2.2
Bogosian 2.1
Brodie 1.8

I appreciate that there are different levels of quality of comp here, but those are the raw stats. Holl is quite the outlier.
This isn't a thread about forwards, but those numbers are interesting too... Nylander one of the best a 1.7 GA/60, Galchenyuk at 4.0 Matthews at 3.0.

How could this surprise you? You are a hockey guy ... Holl has been brutal now for a few weeks and past 5 games by far worst guy on team (except Jumbo) ... like I told everyone even when he had some great games .. da guy is a 6/7 dman in league .. and Muzzy has been stickin it up too past 5 games .. these 2 need a rest .. they are costing team night in night out and are biggest reason why we are in a losing streak right now

 

[Fogelhund]

How could this surprise you? You are a hockey guy ... Holl has been brutal now for a few weeks and past 5 games by far worst guy on team (except Jumbo) ... like I told everyone even when he had some great games .. da guy is a 6/7 dman in league .. and Muzzy has been stickin it up too past 5 games .. these 2 need a rest .. they are costing team night in night out and are biggest reason why we are in a losing streak right now

I just didn't realize that Holl's numbers had deteriorated THAT much. I figured they'd dropped, but that is more significant than I had expected. I mean half a goal a game, over your regular partner is brutal. Put in Liljegren for a game or two, give him some rest.

 

[LeafGrief]

Well it’s going to be Rielly’s $5 million out and after next year Kessel’s $1.2 million comes off. Depending on how Muzzin and Holl perform in his hypothetical big offseason I would look at a larger D budget shift and bring up Sandin and Liljegren so it would be a revamped blueline for sure before touching the Andersen Hyman and goalie factors. And there’s always Kerfoot.

It might be possible, but Hyman is going to vacuum up a lot of those cap dollars this summer. Kerfoot is probably gone just to fit Hyman in unless we get a bargain basement goalie (that's a no from me).

Honestly don't know how we'd improve on Muzzin and Holl's cap efficiency. Holl has struggled lately, but at 2m he's a good deal for a RHD #4, and Muzzin is fantastic. Ultimately, if Sandin and Liljegren are the real deal, maybe Sandin's cap hit in the top4 and Rielly off the books opens up space to add another winger. That said, I'd much rather Rielly perform and we roll with our current top4 and then the two promising kids as the bottom pair. That's a wicked mixture of depth, youth, upside, and experience. Overall, I'm still quite happy with how our defense has played this year. It's been completely rebuilt over the last two years, Rielly and Dermott are the only guys left. I don't think we need to rebuild it yet again, I like what I've seen from this group so far, especially with the two kids coming up. Scoring depth is also a problem, so that's why I'm afraid of shifting cap dollars around on a guy like Hamilton (or an overpriced deal for Rielly) because I don't think there's much more blood that can be squeezed from our forward depth's metaphorical stone.

 

[LeafGrief]

I just didn't realize that Holl's numbers had deteriorated THAT much. I figured they'd dropped, but that is more significant than I had expected. I mean half a goal a game, over your regular partner is brutal. Put in Lilegren for a game or two, give him some rest.

In Holl's defense, he's got a .906 oiSV% this year. Over the last 20 games, it's just .886. Muzzin has .919 on the season and .905 over the last 20. Holl has got worse shots against and chances against metrics than Muzzin, but Muzzin is also a rock, so just getting compared to him is good. They're the matchup pairing, so our goaltending struggles is falling harder on their shoulders than the Rielly-Brodie pairing.

Not really looking to excuse Holl here, he hasn't ben as good as he was at the start of the year, but I don't think your eyes are lying to you either when you though he wasn't that bad. Like, he was on the ice when Hoglander got that shitty 3rd goal on Tuesday. Muzzin was on the ice for that and Pearson's 2nd goal. They're both having a rough go these weeks, but remember the goaltending's impacts on those assessments.

Even if they win, I can see moving on from Rielly, unless he is a star in the playoffs.

I still think the 1st choice is to keep him. He's the best transition defenseman on a team with elite forwards. We desperately need what he brings at ES. Even if Sandin is all that we're dreaming of, that means we have two of them, not that one is expendable.

 

[Maplebeasts]

In Holl's defense, he's got a .906 oiSV% this year. Over the last 20 games, it's just .886. Muzzin has .919 on the season and .905 over the last 20. Holl has got worse shots against and chances against metrics than Muzzin, but Muzzin is also a rock, so just getting compared to him is good. They're the matchup pairing, so our goaltending struggles is falling harder on their shoulders than the Rielly-Brodie pairing.

Not really looking to excuse Holl here, he hasn't ben as good as he was at the start of the year, but I don't think your eyes are lying to you either when you though he wasn't that bad. Like, he was on the ice when Hoglander got that shitty 3rd goal on Tuesday. Muzzin was on the ice for that and Pearson's 2nd goal. They're both having a rough go these weeks, but remember the goaltending's impacts on those assessments.



I still think the 1st choice is to keep him. He's the best transition defenseman on a team with elite forwards. We desperately need what he brings at ES. Even if Sandin is all that we're dreaming of, that means we have two of them, not that one is expendable.

But the Leafs probably can't afford him and I'm not comfortable saying he's been that good. From what I've seen he is maybe the weakest defensive dman on the team and his point totals suggest a more impactful offensive presence than he actually is. He just makes the wrong decision consistently in the O-zone. I'm not sure I've seen someone collect so many secondary assists off of low danger passes and rebounds off the backboard.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I just didn't realize that Holl's numbers had deteriorated THAT much. I figured they'd dropped, but that is more significant than I had expected. I mean half a goal a game, over your regular partner is brutal. Put in Lilegren for a game or two, give him some rest.

It should happen ... same with Muzzy and Jumbo .. even an eye test guy like me can see it is getting brutal .. bad on Keefer as he is a hockey guy too and he should know .. but he punishes Dermy when he has been our best defender past 5 games bar none .. really shoddy coaching decisions .. sends wrong message to guys on bench

 

[Stephen]

It might be possible, but Hyman is going to vacuum up a lot of those cap dollars this summer. Kerfoot is probably gone just to fit Hyman in unless we get a bargain basement goalie (that's a no from me).

Honestly don't know how we'd improve on Muzzin and Holl's cap efficiency. Holl has struggled lately, but at 2m he's a good deal for a RHD #4, and Muzzin is fantastic. Ultimately, if Sandin and Liljegren are the real deal, maybe Sandin's cap hit in the top4 and Rielly off the books opens up space to add another winger. That said, I'd much rather Rielly perform and we roll with our current top4 and then the two promising kids as the bottom pair. That's a wicked mixture of depth, youth, upside, and experience. Overall, I'm still quite happy with how our defense has played this year. It's been completely rebuilt over the last two years, Rielly and Dermott are the only guys left. I don't think we need to rebuild it yet again, I like what I've seen from this group so far, especially with the two kids coming up. Scoring depth is also a problem, so that's why I'm afraid of shifting cap dollars around on a guy like Hamilton (or an overpriced deal for Rielly) because I don't think there's much more blood that can be squeezed from our forward depth's metaphorical stone.

Re: Muzzin and Holl I agree they’re efficient. Mostly Holl. But looking at moving one or two of them would be based on a poor playoff showing, and money wise if we can get a flat cap salary for a replacement that might be better than a pre flat cap contract (Muzzin).

 

[LeafGrief]

Re: Muzzin and Holl I agree they’re efficient. Mostly Holl. But looking at moving one or two of them would be based on a poor playoff showing, and money wise if we can get a flat cap salary for a replacement that might be better than a pre flat cap contract (Muzzin).

If Muzzin does poorly in the playoffs keep an eye out in the sky for pigs overhead. Nothing in his body of work as a Leaf, or a King has shown him to be anything other than excellent in the playoffs. $5.65m for him and $5m for Brodie is a backbone for our defense and I think Dubas (or any replacement GM if it comes to that) will try just about everything else under the sun before rebuilding that part of the defense. Frankly, those two are probably Dubas's biggest achievement as GM outside of the draft table.

But the Leafs probably can't afford him and I'm not comfortable saying he's been that good. From what I've seen he is maybe the weakest defensive dman on the team and his point totals suggest a more impactful offensive presence than he actually is. He just makes the wrong decision consistently in the O-zone. I'm not sure I've seen someone collect so many secondary assists off of low danger passes and rebounds off the backboard.

He gets the puck up the ice better than anyone on the team and as well as anyone in the league. We have a team built around elite forwards, having a guy who is elite at getting the puck up the ice is a massive, massive need for this club. Three of our top4 defenders are quite strong defensively, keeping an offensive asset on the blueline is a bare minimum for a team in the modern NHL. Sure, he makes some boneheaded plays in the offensive zone, but he gets a whole bunch of secondary assists because he lugs the puck up the ice into the offensive zone where our elite talent can finish the job. I don't think he's all that special in the offensive zone, but he deserves his points just fine. There is a price where we cannot afford Rielly, but his transition abilities alone are why he's Keefe's #1D. I wouldn't want to pay him any more than $7m, but up to that point he's a good enough player that it's worth making work.

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

Is it fair to say that Rielly had his best game of the year? He looked like he was in junior again with the way he was carrying the puck. He also made some key defensive plays. He's shown glimpses of being that true #1 in the past and if he can continue to play at this level it could have season changing results. The only major "weakness" coming into this postseason was that we did not have that top tier blueliner that's vital to a cup run

 

[demonslayer]

Is it fair to say that Rielly had his best game of the year? He looked like he was in junior again with the way he was carrying the puck. He also made some key defensive plays. He's shown glimpses of being that true #1 in the past and if he can continue to play at this level it could have season changing results. The only major "weakness" coming into this postseason was that we did not have that top tier blueliner that's vital to a cup run

Not with that soft as baby shit shot, with the money he's going to be asking for I want to move him while we still can.

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

Not with that soft as baby shit shot, with the money he's going to be asking for I want to move him while we still can.

That soft as baby shit shot is currently one of our better options on our powerplay, especially in the playoffs when tons of goals are scored on tips and rebounds

 

[Gabriel426]

Reilly played his best game of the season. I hope this game will give him confidence to be better.

 

[demonslayer]

That soft as baby shit shot is currently one of our better options on our powerplay, especially in the playoffs when tons of goals are scored on tips and rebounds

You say this after Sandin scored a screecher on the point today after all our PP issues this season

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

You say this after Sandin scored a screecher on the point today after all our PP issues this season

Well I can guarantee you it's better than anything Thornton, Simmonds, Hyman, Marner, and Galchenyuk have had to offer

 

[The Beyonder]

He's really turned it up to the type of level we all know he's capable of. Every playoffs he seems to step it up.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Only two games but he’s clearly turned on another gear here. This is a man who wants to win in the playoffs.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Well I can guarantee you it's better than anything Thornton, Simmonds, Hyman, Marner, and Galchenyuk have had to offer

Galchenyuk’s one timer is a HOWITZER. It’s criminal that Thornton gets PP time over Gally

 

[saffronleaf]

Rielly has stepped it up in a big way

 

[Jmo89]

Rielly has stepped it up in a big way

Rielly typically does well in the playoffs, which makes his poor regular seasons the past couple years even more odd. I picked Rielly as one of the guys who will excel this offseason and for the teams sake hope he continues his strong play.

 

[Nooodles]

I gotta say I really like Playoff Morgan Rielly.

I wanted to shoot him to the sun a week ago.

 

[Not My Tempo]

Rielly and Matthews are showing why they were the other two Captain candidates, boys have stepped up.

 

[IPS]

Absolutely phenomenal through 2 playoff games so far.

 

[Stephen]

Rielly has been excellent through the first two games. His skating on the rush has been something to marvel at too just found another gear. Defensively quiet as well.

 

[Stonehands1990]

That soft as baby shit shot is currently one of our better options on our powerplay, especially in the playoffs when tons of goals are scored on tips and rebounds

Matthews
Galchenyuk
Nylander
Spezza
Sandin
Muzzin

Are all better PP shooting options. Rielly is at the lower end