Mitchell Marner vs Sebastian Aho

[gretskidoo]

Canes called up Warren Foegele the other day and he scored at a 123 point pace since he got more usage and better linemates. Ipso facto Foegele > Marner AINEC.

He needs to do it for another 3 games before he can dethrone Gretzky.

 

[Cotton]

mitch marner is one hit away from being a bookshelf for ther est of his life so its definitely aho aincec

I think you got that backwards.

 

[Cotton]

I'm sorry, it still doesnt make him anywhere hottest.. only in your biased mind, is Marner somehow hotter than a player with 38g 55a 93pts in 70games.. Edit: Mackinnons pace is 44,5goals 109points.

Marner is certainly one of the hottest players of late. Thing is he had a rough start for about the first quarter of the season. Since he’s been PPG+ entering 50 games as of today. So while nobody would put him on MacKinnon’s level, he’s been just as hot for over the last quarter of the season.

In the last 25gp;
NateM 25 14 20 34
MitchM 25 12 22 34
Aho 25 9 15 24

 

[Neutral Hockey Fan]

One of these players has been concussed recently and it wasn't Mitch.

Having played in the FEL myself, I understand the difference in physicality between Finns and the stronger players of North America, but it seems to be a trend of Finnish players skating around with their heads down thinking hey won’t get hit. (Laine, Aho)

Is keeping your head down taught at an early age in Finland? Is it because they aren’t allowed body contact until they are in their later teens or twenties?

These guys have to recognize they are in North America where body checking is a part of the game, and not in Finland where it isn’t allowed

 

[Lemontree]

Yeah, the stats show again that Aho is the better goal scorer and scoring similar points to Marner this year, but nooooo Marner AINEC.
I haven't said Aho should be looked as better than Marner, but takes a pretty strong bias to say Marner is clearly the better player today.



When you have one of the best F groups in the league an opposing team can't focus on just 1 player, when you have a guy like Matthews on your roster an opposing team can't put all their efforts on Marner.

Aho has nobody taking that kind of pressure away from him.

As you have correctly pointed out the Leafs have a much better forward group than the Canes. Is it weird that Marner has 13 more points then the 2nd highest Leaf scorer yet Aho has only 2 more points than the 2nd highest scoring Cane. One would think it would be much harder to outproduce the better offensive players.

Also you acknowledge that Aho is outscoring Marner in goals with 6 more yet Marner is out producing Aho by 5 more points and you call that scoring similarly. The cut off for distinction must be 5?

 

[Randy Randerson]

Usually you need to be one to be called one.

has been for a while now after a slow start with non-scoring line usage and limited PP time. There's a bit of projection on my part, but its not without some reason for that projection

53pts in 53 games since November 26th

 

[LeafFever]

I'm sorry, it still doesnt make him anywhere hottest.. only in your biased mind, is Marner somehow hotter than a player with 38g 55a 93pts in 70games.. Edit: Mackinnons pace is 44,5goals 109points.

Do you not understand that hottest player doesn't maen highest scorer currently? Mackinnon has cooled off when his team needs him the most.

 

[TheFinalWord]

Since people keep blindly referencing ppg as the basis of their argument I feel like I should repeat this post. I recognize that people value different stats differently, and I don't have a problem with anyone's opinion that Marner is better. But the AINEC declarations (on either side) scream "HOMER" to me.

These are two exciting young players that are going to be very good for a very long time. Given the way this thread has turned out, I think a good alternative title would be "How Many Angels Can Dance on the Head of a Pin?"

Well it was a nice try to credit both players, but we aren't having any of that good sense stuff here!

 

[Pyrophorus]

At this moment it is Marner AINEC

 

[Snowsii]

Do you not understand that hottest player doesn't maen highest scorer currently? Mackinnon has cooled off when his team needs him the most.

And how else do you define "hottest" and i peg the gods you dont say "by looks"

 

[Snowsii]

Having played in the FEL myself, I understand the difference in physicality between Finns and the stronger players of North America, but it seems to be a trend of Finnish players skating around with their heads down thinking hey won’t get hit. (Laine, Aho)

Is keeping your head down taught at an early age in Finland? Is it because they aren’t allowed body contact until they are in their later teens or twenties?

These guys have to recognize they are in North America where body checking is a part of the game, and not in Finland where it isn’t allowed

With this text, i'm sure you havent never played im FEL.. such BS...

 

[LakeLivin]

Well it was a nice try to credit both players, but we aren't having any of that good sense stuff here!

Fair enough, I'm changing my vote to 123 pt pace Warren Foegele!

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Would Carolina trade Aho for Marner 1on1?

 

[BM14]

Does this poll combine both Sebastian Ahos? Is that why its so close?

 

[Tryamw]

Would Carolina trade Aho for Marner 1on1?

I wouldn't but these are both highly skilled guys..

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

As you have correctly pointed out the Leafs have a much better forward group than the Canes. Is it weird that Marner has 13 more points then the 2nd highest Leaf scorer yet Aho has only 2 more points than the 2nd highest scoring Cane.

No, because the Leafs 2nd leading scorer missed 20 games.

One would think it would be much harder to outproduce the better offensive players.

Yeah, one would think that if one didn't bother to research before posting.

Would Carolina trade Aho for Marner 1on1?

Probably not, whatever difference in skill isn't enough to over come the devil you know.

 

[BB88]

has been for a while now after a slow start with non-scoring line usage and limited PP time. There's a bit of projection on my part, but its not without some reason for that projection

53pts in 53 games since November 26th

Yeah that's still not a +ppg player, 69 in 78 at the end of the day.

 

[Lemontree]

No, because the Leafs 2nd leading scorer missed 20 games.



Yeah, one would think that if one didn't bother to research before posting.




Probably not, whatever difference in skill isn't enough to over come the devil you know.

Nylander missed 20 games? Maybe you should do some research.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Nylander missed 20 games? Maybe you should do some research.

Matthews missed 20 games. Tied with Nylander in points, but in a score less games so he is the 2nd leading scorer.

if he hadn't missed 20 games, there wouldn't be a disparity of 13 points between 1st place marner and 2nd place whomever...it would be small or (more likely) matthews would be the scoring leader. which rends the post i quoted utterly moot.

 

[mcinnesja]

 

[wabagee]

Having played in the FEL myself, I understand the difference in physicality between Finns and the stronger players of North America, but it seems to be a trend of Finnish players skating around with their heads down thinking hey won’t get hit. (Laine, Aho)

Is keeping your head down taught at an early age in Finland? Is it because they aren’t allowed body contact until they are in their later teens or twenties?

These guys have to recognize they are in North America where body checking is a part of the game, and not in Finland where it isn’t allowed

Have you played hockey? Really? Did Matthews know in practice to not keep his head down in practice?

 

[LeafFever]

And how else do you define "hottest" and i peg the gods you dont say "by looks"

In that case it's Teen Beat icon, William Nylander. He is dreamy.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Yeah that's still not a +ppg player, 69 in 78 at the end of the day.

that's why I said "feels like", he's been that for long enough that I think he'll continue it, and I'll project him as that going forward. Really the size of a season is an arbitrary way to dissect what sample size should be used as a predictor of future performance, that just happens to be the number of games that an NHL season is, it's not the number of games that gets to reliably suggest that a player can continue a level of performance

also have to consider:
- how sustainable the sh% & OIsh% are, maybe a player has just gotten really lucky with an unsustainable proportion of pucks on net going in when he's on the ice - Marner's numbers are sustainable ( both shooting %'s lower than Aho's over the same period)
- linemates & opportunity - Marner's been dynamite since getting reasonable linemates & opportunity, has spent time with some really poor players in very limited minutes this season. Averages more than a minute and a half less icetime per game than Aho, and 30 seconds less PP time per game than Aho


anyway, if you want to look at boxscore stats and make grand proclamations about what a player is, be my guest. Current Mitch Marner is a ppg+ star, I'll bet that he can continue at this level of production

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

- how sustainable the sh% & OIsh% are, maybe a player has just gotten really lucky with an unsustainable proportion of pucks on net going in when he's on the ice - Marner's numbers are sustainable ( both shooting %'s lower than Aho's over the same period)

Aho is at 9.5 OISH% this year. That's expected for an elite offensive player, so it could easily be a "lucky" year for him: but that said, when someone is having a fluke year they're clocking an upwards in the mid to high teens of OISH%. While Aho is upper-mid of the bell curve, he is still smack in the bell curve.

linemates & opportunity - Marner's been dynamite since getting reasonable linemates & opportunity, has spent time with some really poor players in very limited minutes this season. Averages more than a minute and a half less icetime per game than Aho, and 30 seconds less PP time per game than Aho

Aho is at 2.46 p/60, Marner is at 2.16 p/60 (ES).

Marner played with Bozak and JVR half the year, and Kadri and Marleau since his insane run. I don't think that's significantly different from what Aho has mainly rolled with- Teravainen and Staal, then Tervainen and Valentin Zyjov the last half dozen games, to the point that we can conclude the .30 p/60 difference is in Quality of Linemates.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Aho is at 9.5 OISH% this year. That's expected for an elite offensive player, so it could easily be a "lucky" year for him: but that said, when someone is having a fluke year they're clocking an upwards in the mid to high teens of OISH%. While Aho is upper-mid of the bell curve, he is still smack in the bell curve.

didn't mean that to say that Aho has been lucky, meant to say that Marner has been less lucky than Aho by comparison. Agree that Aho's rates are sustainable

Aho is at 2.46 p/60, Marner is at 2.16 p/60 (ES).

Marner played with Bozak and JVR half the year, and Kadri and Marleau since his insane run. I don't think that's significantly different from what Aho has mainly rolled with- Teravainen and Staal, then Tervainen and Valentin Zyjov the last half dozen games, to the point that we can conclude the .30 p/60 difference is in Quality of Linemates.

Marner has been an elite PP producer and I don't get why that gets counted against anyone. His aggregate pts/60 on the year are going to include some time that he was bouncing around the bottom 2 lines including the 4th line with Matt Martin/center du jour. Marner's production gets a hell of a lot more impressive if you take out the portion before the end of November when he settled into playing with JVR/Bozak/Marleau/Kadri/+Nylander/Hyman when Matthews was hurt

I agree that Marner's current linemates are comparable to Aho's average, Marner has been on a near 100pt pace since starting with Kadri more than 30 games ago

Marner had a slow start which was compounded by usage that included 4th line, has since produced at a ppg+ clip with sustainable underlying numbers and terrific possession numbers/relatives. He's done it for long enough for me to believe he can keep doing it, which I acknowledge as being projection on my part