Value of: Mitch Marner

Johnsie19

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Jun 29, 2010
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The Leafs need to shake things up in some way. By no means is it likely that Marner will be moved but I did read a blog suggesting a big return. I know he is a great player but his contract will be very difficult to ever live up to.

With the cap not likely to go up for 3 seasons what do we think the return for Marner (5yrs left at 10.89mil) could be?
 

Colt55

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Sep 28, 2017
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The Leafs need to shake things up in some way. By no means is it likely that Marner will be moved but I did read a blog suggesting a big return. I know he is a great player but his contract will be very difficult to ever live up to.

With the cap not likely to go up for 3 seasons what do we think the return for Marner (5yrs left at 10.89mil) could be?
Retain 3 mil and the sky is the limit
 

Dr Jan Itor

Registered User
Dec 10, 2009
45,237
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MinneSNOWta
Dumba + Zuccarello + lower of Min/Pit 2021 1st rounder

Toronto fills a top 4/top pair RD spot with a 25 year old that has 3 more years of control, and gets a RW replacement that'll produce 50-60% of the points at 55% of the cost.

No retainage on Marner. Cap in/cap out basically within $1.1M
 
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biotk

Registered User
Jan 3, 2017
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Buffalo
The Leafs need to shake things up in some way. By no means is it likely that Marner will be moved but I did read a blog suggesting a big return. I know he is a great player but his contract will be very difficult to ever live up to.

With the cap not likely to go up for 3 seasons what do we think the return for Marner (5yrs left at 10.89mil) could be?

Based on previous threads this is not a great place to discuss a Marner trade.

Yes, Marner has a 10.9M cap hit. Yes, the cap is flat and I doubt he will out-perform his contract.

However, compare trade threads about Marner (cap dump, will need to retain massive amounts) with trade threads about Eichel (worth huge amounts). Now Eichel is a better player, no doubt about that, and Eichel is a center, but the difference between them is not close to the level of what is currently perceived on here - and how Marner is perceived on here in terms of trade talks (cap dump, no value) also has no connection to how Marner was perceived on here before he signed his contract (when he was better than Matthews according to an absolutely massive number of non-Leafs fans).

Eichel - cap hit 10 AAV for the next 6 years. Owed 52.5M for an average of 8.75M (2.5M remaining for next year, and 10 for each year after).

Marner - cap hit 10.9 AAV for the next 5 years. Owed 35M for an average of 7M (0.7M remaining for next year, 10.4 the next year and 8 for each of the final 3 years).

Marner being owed almost 4M less per year than his cap hit would be a major selling point for financially troubled teams who have no intention of spending to cap, and in which case his cap hit won't matter.

Regardless, there is almost no chance Dubas will trade Marner, although he should.
 

BCNate

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Apr 3, 2016
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Marner is an elite player who is paid like a superstar. But, he is still elite. You don't bail on him just because he is a few million overpaid. Do leafs fans really trust Dubas to get a fair return on a young elite player?
 

Mugzy97

#StandWitness
Mar 3, 2015
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Ooh baby baby, it's a cap world
It's hard to get by just upon a smile...

Marner is an elite player who is paid like a superstar. But, he is still elite. You don't bail on him just because he is a few million overpaid. Do leafs fans really trust Dubas to get a fair return on a young elite player?

I mean, Kane is paid 10.5M AAV and doesn't play PK like Marner does. Not as good defensively as Marner either. Although he has had a couple of extremely good offensive seasons. I don't see anybody trying to trade Kane?
 

RationalExpectations

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May 12, 2019
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I mean, Kane is paid 10.5M AAV and doesn't play PK like Marner does. Not as good defensively as Marner either. Although he has had a couple of extremely good offensive seasons. I don't see anybody trying to trade Kane?

Both Chicago and Toronto (and Edmonton by the way) have been eliminated even before playoffs began, that should give an indication about how much worth overpaying for your forward is efficient when speaking about winning a cup. Looking at the cup favorites (TBL, VGK, STL), oh surprise none have a player paid above 10m AAV, let alone 3.
Kadri was the issue, gone. Hutchinson was the issue, gone. Babcock was the issue too... maybe the issue is how this team has been built. I am not sure the leafs would lose a lot by trading one of the big 4 just because they still have the three others BUT Tavares has a NMC, Matthews is the Franchise center, so it leaves Marner and Nylander to be moved.

Maybe I am wrong and maybe you can allocate 50% of the cap to 20% of the team but it does not seem like it or at least when they are all in your forward group.

As an additional note, Toews/ Kane have already won three cups for CHI, how many did Marner Matthews Tavares win ? They are talented players and honestly who would not like to have at least either Marner or Matthews on their team ? But these contracts are awful...
 
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Mugzy97

#StandWitness
Mar 3, 2015
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Both Chicago and Toronto (and Edmonton by the way) have been eliminated even before playoffs began, that should give an indication about how much worth overpaying for your forward is efficient when speaking about winning a cup. Looking at the cup favorites (TBL, VGK, STL), oh surprise none have a player paid above 10m AAV, let alone 3.
Kadri was the issue, gone. Hutchinson was the issue, gone. Babcock was the issue too... maybe the issue is how this team has been built. I am not sure the leafs would lose a lot by trading one of the big 4 just because they still have the three others BUT Tavares has a NMC, Matthews is the Franchise center, so it leaves Marner and Nylander to be moved.

Maybe I am wrong and maybe you can allocate 50% of the cap to 20% of the team but it does not seem like it or at least when they are all in your forward group.

As an additional note, Toews/ Kane have already won three cups for CHI, how many did Marner Matthews Tavares win ? They are talented players and honestly who would not like to have at least either Marner or Matthews on their team ? But these contracts are awful...
Maybe it's just a reminder at how hard it actually is to win the Stanley Cup? The way the CBA is built, it makes players get paid what they are worth. When you draft a player, you hope he becomes a superstar... and when he does you have to pay him like a superstar. It's just the way it is. If you take 1M off of Marner's cap hit it isn't going to make a big difference.
 

RationalExpectations

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May 12, 2019
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Maybe it's just a reminder at how hard it actually is to win the Stanley Cup? The way the CBA is built, it makes players get paid what they are worth. When you draft a player, you hope he becomes a superstar... and when he does you have to pay him like a superstar. It's just the way it is. If you take 1M off of Marner's cap hit it isn't going to make a big difference.

Agreed it is hard to win the Stanley cup and only one is given every year but in 27 years, no Canadian team has been winning the Cup (while statiscally speaking 6/7 should have), so maybe Canadian teams are doing something wrong.

And you hope to get superstars but you cannot build a team only with superstars. Look at Pittsburgh which has been building a team around Crosby + Malkin, they also have had Fleury / Murray, Letang, but they had cap space to sign other quality players (Satan, Sykora, Kessel, Sheary). With Toronto right now, it seems there is no space for this depth quality. Don't get me wrong, they are young, they have a lot of time to win the SC and I truly hope they do (I support all canadian teams!!!) but I just don't see this team bing built in a way they can win the cup soon. Hope they prove me wrong.
 

Mugzy97

#StandWitness
Mar 3, 2015
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Agreed it is hard to win the Stanley cup and only one is given every year but in 27 years, no Canadian team has been winning the Cup (while statiscally speaking 6/7 should have), so maybe Canadian teams are doing something wrong.

And you hope to get superstars but you cannot build a team only with superstars. Look at Pittsburgh which has been building a team around Crosby + Malkin, they also have had Fleury / Murray, Letang, but they had cap space to sign other quality players (Satan, Sykora, Kessel, Sheary). With Toronto right now, it seems there is no space for this depth quality. Don't get me wrong, they are young, they have a lot of time to win the SC and I truly hope they do (I support all canadian teams!!!) but I just don't see this team bing built in a way they can win the cup soon. Hope they prove me wrong.
The goal is to backfill the superstars with players that are capable to hold their own in the league. It's obviously a very tough balance.

I believe the last 2 years Toronto just had bad luck of the draw having to play Boston in the first round who is a powerhouse team. They were almost able to beat them and Boston went on the the finals last year. This year was different, we needed our superstars to score and they didn't do it. This is why everyone is on their back this year specifically.
 

Puckclektr

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Jul 15, 2004
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I mean, Kane is paid 10.5M AAV and doesn't play PK like Marner does. Not as good defensively as Marner either. Although he has had a couple of extremely good offensive seasons. I don't see anybody trying to trade Kane?
Aside from being the better player...Stanley cups and excellent playoff performances probably might be a reason.
 
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RationalExpectations

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May 12, 2019
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The goal is to backfill the superstars with players that are capable to hold their own in the league. It's obviously a very tough balance.

I believe the last 2 years Toronto just had bad luck of the draw having to play Boston in the first round who is a powerhouse team. They were almost able to beat them and Boston went on the the finals last year. This year was different, we needed our superstars to score and they didn't do it. This is why everyone is on their back this year specifically.

That I fully get, and thanks for naming Boston : 18m for their entire first line vs 30m for Toronto, and in my opinion this is the issue. There are a lot of 2.5 - 3.5m players + 5 - 7m Den that you just cannot sutain with the current TOR cap structure. I believe Dubas' plan (even if he did not admit to the press) was something like "given the cap evolution, in 2022 we are at 90m, and those deals won't look as bad and that's where we're going to compete" and it is not bad in itself but then you anyway have a very short window because Tavares is not getting younger with any year that passes and if Marner continues to perform like this, what will he ask next time ? 15m ? I believe Dubas did not want to repeat the Nylander fiasco and hence gave Marner too much to avoid a second confrontation
 
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