Mitch Marner "Star" Poll: 2018 Edition

[Gary Nylund]

I can't even keep track of how many tap-ins Marner has put on Bozak's and JVR's sticks that they haven't converted on. It is an absurd amount. Often it seems it is because they are not ready for it or cannot read his creativity and are too late on the chance. He should have a lot more points.

As much as I love Marner, I'm not sure that's fair. JVR and Bozak are both pretty good offensive players so if they're having trouble getting used to Marner, there's no reason to think others would have done better.

do you see how those 2 pass the puck? It's always blind pass. They both try to force the pass and center it randomly. 90% of the time it gets intercepted.

Again, I love Marner but he makes a TON of blind passes himself that look sweet when they work and I love the creativity but they also get picked off quite often.

 

[pengdeng12]

As much as I love Marner, I'm not sure that's fair. JVR and Bozak are both pretty good offensive players so if they're having trouble getting used to Marner, there's no reason to think others would have done better.



Again, I love Marner but he makes a TON of blind passes himself that look sweet when they work and I love the creativity but they also get picked off quite often.

yea sure but for JVR and Bozak it's different. I don't how to explain it. Anyways, there is a reason why he started doing well ever since he got on the line with Kadri.

Whereas JVR/Bozak's production has stayed the same (Evenstrength)

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Jvr and bozak do not have high hockey IQ
Jvr is one dimensional power play specialist
Bozak probably is higher than Jvr but still low

Kadri is a smart hockey player same as Marleau
Put marner on their line and and it’s no coincidence
both go in a streak

Watch marner live and you see a completely different side of him
His anticipation and hockey sense is off the charts.

He is only going to get better as he matures
If they can get him a natural goal scorer it will be magical.

 

[Gary Nylund]

yea sure but for JVR and Bozak it's different. I don't how to explain it. Anyways, there is a reason why he started doing well ever since he got on the line with Kadri.

Whereas JVR/Bozak's production has stayed the same (Evenstrength)

No worries, I find it hard at times to explain JVR and Bozak myself. And Kadri/Marner >>> JVR/Bozak, no questions there.

 

[White Shadow]

Jvr and bozak do not have high hockey IQ
Jvr is one dimensional power play specialist
Bozak probably is higher than Jvr but still low

Kadri is a smart hockey player same as Marleau
Put marner on their line and and it’s no coincidence
both go in a streak

Watch marner live and you see a completely different side of him
His anticipation and hockey sense is off the charts.

He is only going to get better as he matures
If they can get him a natural goal scorer it will be magical.

The Marner / Mackinnon combo at the worlds was magical.

Maybe Mitch is responsible for MacKinnon's resurrection. He was having a crappy year til he played with Mitch.

 

[Garthinater]

Marner is our best player. I would bet that by the end of the year he will once again be our leading point producer.

His pass on JT's goal was crazy. Such good vision.

Shame on those who voted "no".

 

[DanM]

Marner is our best player. I would bet that by the end of the year he will once again be our leading point producer.

His pass on JT's goal was crazy. Such good vision.

Shame on those who voted "no".

Don't disagree

The problem is he is not 11 million worth of player, that is what really hurts a bit.

 

[Garthinater]

Don't disagree

The problem is he is not 11 million worth of player, that is what really hurts a bit.

Marner is probably my favourite player but I agree. Maybe if it was 8 years but even then it's a steep price.

It is becoming increasingly clear that we (dubas) have over paid all 4 of our big forwards.

The only one that I consider reasonable is tavares because he was a ufa.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Marner is probably my favourite player but I agree. Maybe if it was 8 years but even then it's a steep price.

It is becoming increasingly clear that we (dubas) have over paid all 4 of our big forwards.

The only one that I consider reasonable is tavares because he was a ufa.

Not sure how Nylander is anything but fair value?

Between 2018 and 2019 there have been 12 forwards signed in the $6.5-$7.5 M range. (within 6 months either way of him signing, so gives you a good idea of current market value). Of those he sits 7th in Pts/GP. All but 2 of those above him make more than him. Of the two that don't, one is in a tax haven, the other had a terrible year prior to signing. He is 0.12 from being third on that list (amounts to 9 points over 82 games). He also gets a fair bit less minutes than most ahead of him.

He seems pretty fairly priced relative to market value.

 

[Garthinater]

Not sure how Nylander is anything but fair value?

Between 2018 and 2019 there have been 12 forwards signed in the $6.5-$7.5 M range. (within 6 months either way of him signing, so gives you a good idea of current market value). Of those he sits 7th in Pts/GP. All but 2 of those above him make more than him. Of the two that don't, one is in a tax haven, the other had a terrible year prior to signing. He is 0.12 from being third on that list (amounts to 9 points over 82 games). He also gets a fair bit less minutes than most ahead of him.

He seems pretty fairly priced relative to market value.

How many of those 12 forwards were rfa?

Rfa's dont make as much as ufa's. It's a fact.

Edit: his closest comparables imo are pasta, ehlers, arvidsson and larkin. He is overpaid when compared to other RFA's.

Hes not as overpaid as Matthew's and marner. But still, we gave him more than we needed to. Especially when you look at how his contract is structured. Most other players dont get all of their money in signing bonuses or front loaded. Then add on that we made sure he still made 7 mil for missing 2 months = over paid.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

How many of those 12 forwards were rfa?

Rfa's dont make as much as ufa's. It's a fact.

Five and with the exception of the tax haven and bad year RFA, they are making more than many of the UFA as well as outproducing many of the UFA.

 

[MyBudJT]

Not sure how Nylander is anything but fair value?

Between 2018 and 2019 there have been 12 forwards signed in the $6.5-$7.5 M range. (within 6 months either way of him signing, so gives you a good idea of current market value). Of those he sits 7th in Pts/GP. All but 2 of those above him make more than him. Of the two that don't, one is in a tax haven, the other had a terrible year prior to signing. He is 0.12 from being third on that list (amounts to 9 points over 82 games). He also gets a fair bit less minutes than most ahead of him.

He seems pretty fairly priced relative to market value.

Since 2018, Nylander sits 164th in P/GP (0.57 P/GP).... He's cap hit sits 63rd in the NHL. To contrast that, Kapanen sits 176th (0.56 P/GP), and gets paid less than half of what Nylander gets.

7M AAV players shouldn't play at a 47 point pace, no matter how you try and word it...

 

[Garthinater]

Five and with the exception of the tax haven and bad year RFA, they are making more than many of the UFA as well as outproducing many of the UFA.

I added this after you already quoted me:

Edit: his closest comparables imo are pasta, ehlers, arvidsson and larkin. He is overpaid when compared to other RFA's.

Hes not as overpaid as Matthew's and marner. But still, we gave him more than we needed to. Especially when you look at how his contract is structured. Most other players dont get all of their money in signing bonuses or front loaded. Then add on that we made sure he still made 7 mil for missing 2 months = over paid.

Can willy make it a fair deal? I believe so. But he is on pace for under 60 points. That is not worth 7 mil.

 

[MyBudJT]

I added this after you already quoted me:

Edit: his closest comparables imo are pasta, ehlers, arvidsson and larkin. He is overpaid when compared to other RFA's.

Hes not as overpaid as Matthew's and marner. But still, we gave him more than we needed to. Especially when you look at how his contract is structured. Most other players dont get all of their money in signing bonuses or front loaded. Then add on that we made sure he still made 7 mil for missing 2 months = over paid.

Can willy make it a fair deal? I believe so. But he is on pace for under 60 points. That is not worth 7 mil.

Yes, he is.

 

[Menzinger]

The problem here is some folks still think 7 million is star money. Take a look at the last few free agency signings where 50-60 point players are getting that - ie JVR, Anders Lee

 

[Garthinater]

Yes, he is.

The way I see it, auston needs to be a 110+ point player and marner 105+. Where as nylander only needs to be a 70 point player to be good value.

Nylander is closer to adding 10 points to his career high than either auston or mitch are.

At least that's how I see it. (And marner is my favourite player)

Since 2018, Nylander sits 164th in P/GP (0.57 P/GP).... He's cap hit sits 63rd in the NHL. To contrast that, Kapanen sits 176th (0.56 P/GP), and gets paid less than half of what Nylander gets.

7M AAV players shouldn't play at a 47 point pace, no matter how you try and word it...

I totally agree with this post.

 

[Garthinater]

The problem here is some folks srill think 7 miion is star money. Take a look at the last few free agency signings where 50-60 point players are getting that - ie JVR, Anders Lee

The problem here is that you have to split up rfa vs ufa. They dont make the same amount of money (expect in dubas' mind). A 7mil rfa is a lot different than 7 mil ufa.

 

[DarkKnight]

Agents are sharks. It isn’t anybody’s fault but the GM that he was ROLLED. Of course Mitch isn’t worth that contract and all that tells us is his agent took Dubas to school.

I said after Nylander, then again after the Matthews sweetheart deal, that Marner was double digits...wasn’t surprised one iota that he got what he did, it was expected. People fail when they look at the contracts in isolation, once we blinked on Willie, his agent maximized the return, with little leverage, the table was set...then the best china for Matthews...then this farcical deal.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

Voted "already is" last time when the poll came out.

Never agreed with where he was in the lineup with the old vets and the plugs as the only thing it helped was our future contract negotiations with him.

Makes everyone better around him.

nah lol

 

[Menzinger]

The problem here is that you have to split up rfa vs ufa. They dont make the same amount of money (expect in dubas' mind). A 7mil rfa is a lot different than 7 mil ufa.

That disinction is going away though when it comes to rfas who pot 1st line level production.

Guys are getting paid big miney post elc now, and thats not just on thr Leafs

 

[Bomber0104]

The problem here is some folks still think 7 million is star money. Take a look at the last few free agency signings where 50-60 point players are getting that - ie JVR, Anders Lee

Once again, these are UFA players.

Your comparison is categorically wrong.

 

[MyBudJT]

The way I see it, auston needs to be a 110+ point player and marner 105+. Where as nylander only needs to be a 70 point player to be good value.

Nylander is closer to adding 10 points to his career high than either auston or mitch are.

At least that's how I see it. (And marner is my favourite player)



I totally agree with this post.

I disagree, where do these numbers come from?

I would not say that production and AAV relationship is not a linear one. Its fair to suggest a 94 point Marner is easily worth 4 mil more than a 60 point Nylander. I would even say a 90 point Marner is worth close to 4 mil more than a 70 point Nylander. You pay a premium for the extra production a player can provide. Just like how a 60 point Nylander is probably worth 2.5ish mil more than a 45 point Kapanen.

 

[Bomber0104]

Agents are sharks. It isn’t anybody’s fault but the GM that he was ROLLED. Of course Mitch isn’t worth that contract and all that tells us is his agent took Dubas to school.

I said after Nylander, then again after the Matthews sweetheart deal, that Marner was double digits...wasn’t surprised one iota that he got what he did, it was expected. People fail when they look at the contracts in isolation, once we blinked on Willie, his agent maximized the return, with little leverage, the table was set...then the best china for Matthews...then this farcical deal.

The amount of conviction some posters had in Dubas signing Marner to a $9M/year cap hit was downright hilarious.

Even I didn't expect Dubas to cave as much as he did, and I was one of the few here that thought he'd get $10.5M/year (based entirely on how badly Dubas negotiated the previous two)..

 

[Menzinger]

Once again, these are UFA players.

Your comparison is categorically wrong.

The discussion is focused on player value relative to salary. Drawing comparisons as on where the league seemingly values that level of production seems pretty relevant to me...

Pretending rfa status means as much today as it did half a decade ago doesnt make it any more true...

 

[DarkKnight]

The amount of conviction some posters had in Dubas signing Marner to a $9M/year cap hit was downright hilarious.

Even I didn't expect Dubas to cave as much as he did, and I was one of the few here that thought he'd get $10.5M/year (based entirely on how badly Dubas negotiated the previous two)..

Dubas is infallible to some, the answer is certain before the question is even asked. Keep “working” the threads, the rest of the league knows he was walked by these agents!