Speculation: Mitch Marner Megathread Part 12 (Note in OP)

[Legion34]

I don’t get why you are coming at me with this.

The issue is not with a 5-year deal or an 8-year deal for Matthews. Both have their pros and cons. If you sign him for 5 years, you get a discount on the AAV in exchange for allowing him to hit UFA at 25. If you sign him for 8 years, you pay him with a high AAV in exchange for 4 UFA years.

On a 5-year term, you would be looking at comparables like Stamkos (11.66%) and Malkin (15.34%). Based on Matthews’ accomplishments relative to Stamkos/Malkin’s and the factors that historically drive pay, he should definitely not be closer to Malkin than Stamkos at 14.63% at the time of signing.

On an 8-year term, you would be looking at comparables like Eichel (13.33%) and McDavid (16.67%). Based on Matthews’ accomplishments relative to Eichel/McDavid’s and the factors that historically drive pay, he would probably be slightly closer to Eichel. At that point, 14.63% at the time of signing on an 8-year term would be reasonable, even though Eichel was overpaid.

The real issue is that people are using the AAV on an 8-year contract (which everybody agrees was an overpayment) as justification that the AAV on a 5-year contract was not an overpayment.

If you agree that he was overpaid by $1M, then I’m not sure why you are arguing here. On a 5-year term, 13.38% of the cap at the time of signing and 13.05% in year 1, making Matthews the 7th highest player in year 1, would have been on the high side but not too crazy IMO. I certainly wouldn’t spend time arguing in these threads about that contract if that was what he got.

Except the whole nash. Kovalchuk. Etc thing. And the part where it has been proven that tax advantages make a clear and distinct difference in cap hit.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Doughty's 8 year contract was his 3rd contract

And that was his second 8-year contract.

 

[Jordan Belfort]

Like Crosby said “taking less only works if everyone takes less.” No one on the Leafs is taking less. The first guy to take the contract got 10 Schmill. To me the Leafs will not nearly have Pitts success because of this and have fallen into the diva trap

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Except the whole nash. Kovalchuk. Etc thing. And the part where it has been proven that tax advantages make a clear and distinct difference in cap hit.

1. Kovalchuk had achieved significantly more, and relative to other star players at the time, both Kovalchuk and Nash were paid less than Matthews. (Nash significantly so) You know that the salary scale for top players was much different back when those two signed their contracts.

2. It has not been proven that taxes make a clear and distinct difference in cap hit. The evidence that I’ve seen suggests there is probably a mild correlation, but not nearly enough so to justify anything in the stratosphere of a 25% premium. (The gap between Matthews and Stamkos.)

3. You will inevitably bring up quotes from Dubas and other “tax experts” that suggest that taxes make a clear and distinct advantage. When you do that, do not ignore that Dubas also said that structuring his contracts the way that he does, with heavy bonus structures and front loading, helps him reduce the AAV on his contracts.

Keep this in mind, and consider that the maximum percentage of signing bonuses and front loading allowed in the CBA were both paid to Matthews. Comparably, Stamkos’ contract was front loaded to a very small degree, and a small percentage of his contract was paid in signing bonuses.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

I don't think any dumb GMs could make the Matthews contract. They are too busy with their own teams. Of course in Toronto, we have an excellent GM. You would have to resort to making up nonsense about what Marner and his agent are doing just to manufacture support.
It is just as wrong now as it was earlier.

There was no precedent to give Matthews all of what they gave him. And by doing so they risk trapping their cap situation and being stuck in a situation where the supporting cast can't carry their weight because 3 forwards are eating up too much of the cap. 3 guys making 11+ each (if Marner gets what he wants) under the current cap is banking on ELC and league minimum contracts to fill out the rest of the spots. If it works great, if it doesn't the Leafs would be forced to move one of the big 3 to free up some cap space. All teams need to rely on some low $ contracts to outperform their salary. There's just no guarantee they can do it to this level. The 3 years on Reilly's contract is the only certainty the team has on D. The Matthews / Marner contracts on top of adding Tavares last year and paying Nylander mean there's not much scratch left for the D.

If Matthews contract had been closer to 9 (on a short {5 year} contract) you can probably also keep Marner's hit down there and then the team has an extra 4'ish million for their D. Reilly will be due a big raise at some point and re-signing the UFA / RFA D-men will require some raises and or replacements.

Seems like a big gamble that restricts the teams options to add / keep supporting talent.

 

[DomBarr]

Yes, because of signing bonus structure. Not because of AAV and term.

no..McDavid, Tavares, Weber and others all have some sort of heavy signing bonus structure its not new and is definitely not unprecedented..
it really is the term and aav combined with it being the players second contract under the current CBA.

 

[Holymakinaw]

There was no precedent to give Matthews all of what they gave him. And by doing so they risk trapping their cap situation and being stuck in a situation where the supporting cast can't carry their weight because 3 forwards are eating up too much of the cap. 3 guys making 11+ each (if Marner gets what he wants) under the current cap is banking on ELC and league minimum contracts to fill out the rest of the spots. If it works great, if it doesn't the Leafs would be forced to move one of the big 3 to free up some cap space. All teams need to rely on some low $ contracts to outperform their salary. There's just no guarantee they can do it to this level. The 3 years on Reilly's contract is the only certainty the team has on D. The Matthews / Marner contracts on top of adding Tavares last year and paying Nylander mean there's not much scratch left for the D.

If Matthews contract had been closer to 9 (on a short {5 year} contract) you can probably also keep Marner's hit down there and then the team has an extra 4'ish million for their D. Reilly will be due a big raise at some point and re-signing the UFA / RFA D-men will require some raises and or replacements.

Seems like a big gamble that restricts the teams options to add / keep supporting talent.

LOL. You're forgetting one SMALL detail................Matthews wouldn't sign for 9 million. But he would sign for 11.6 million. And Tavares wanted and got 11 million. And Marner wants a lot, and will get a lot.

That's the cost of having a bunch of Superstars on your team.

The Leafs will fit them all in. And they have some great D-men coming up too, on cheap contracts for awhile.

You can all stop worrying.

 

[Seanaconda]

so are the mods just letting these threads go over their normal post limit in hopes that marner will suddenly sign before having to make a new one ?

anyways however this shakes out other than marner sitting for the year will end up good for the leafs.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Like Crosby said “taking less only works if everyone takes less.” No one on the Leafs is taking less. The first guy to take the contract got 10 Schmill. To me the Leafs will not nearly have Pitts success because of this and have fallen into the diva trap

Real Wolf of Wall Street mindset right here.

 

[Seanaconda]

Like Crosby said “taking less only works if everyone takes less.” No one on the Leafs is taking less. The first guy to take the contract got 10 Schmill. To me the Leafs will not nearly have Pitts success because of this and have fallen into the diva trap

like crosby and malkin were paid as top 5 / 6 players for most of their careers until very recently.

Would he have still taken his repeat 8.7 aav contract if he wasnt a question mark for health at the time with his weird neck thing as well.

But still I guess he could have taken more on his third contract but just adding a mill would have made him the highest paid player for aav.