Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread Part 7 (Mod warning OP)

[MapyPopa]

Its not necessarily defensive of Mack. I’m not here pulling out the per 60s. Mack’s point totals speak for themselves.

Never said Matthews is not good. But he’s not on Mack’s level when he finished with 60 less points in the last two years!

Oh so now it’s points? What about goals, games played etc. Whatever to make the story fit I guess

 

[GirardSpinorama]

The funny thing is, Mackinnon was being spoken of highly on here and actually being overrated by most Leaf fans before he came in...

Imagine leaf fan’s response if I said Mack was as good as Matthews during Matthew’s rookie season. When the two were separate by like 18ish points.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Leafs fans are angry because they can see the writing on the wall. Somethings gotta give. You can't have a potential 8 figure free agent with just under $4M in cap space. This isn't going to end well. They essentially have to choose between Willie and Mitchell

They don't have to choose between anybody. They have way more than 4m in cap space. They have enough to sign Marner to any contract they would ever be willing to give him.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Imagine leaf fan’s response if I said Mack was as good as Matthews during Matthew’s rookie season. When the two were separate by like 18ish points.

Imagine willfully ignoring all context and contextual stats and throwing a fit for multiple pages because you couldn't stand your amazing player being properly evaluated, despite everybody still saying how much they love him.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Imagine willfully ignoring all context and contextual stats and throwing a fit for multiple pages because you couldn't stand your amazing player being properly evaluated.

I'm just here stating result based numbers. Numbers that determine how the world sees that player. Not manipulating said numbers by adding and subtracting context that fits how I want to evaluate a player.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Numbers that determine how the world sees that player. Not manipulating said numbers by adding and subtracting context that fits how I want to evaluate a player.

It's not manipulation. Context was only added. It may not be 100% absolutely perfect context, but it's way way better than absolute points.

How the world sees a player is irrelevant when you are a team executive evaluating the quality of a player and the repeat-ability of their production for the purposes of determining contract value.

 

[quackquackquack]

They don't have to choose between anybody. They have way more than 4m in cap space. They have enough to sign Marner to any contract they would ever be willing to give him.

If you are counting Horton's deal that doesn't make any difference. Still puts them at 9.3M and Marner will command more than that. Even if he settles at 9M, the Leafs will be right up against the cap for years with little to no room for roster improvement.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

It's not manipulation. Context was only added. It may not be 100% absolutely perfect context, but it's way way better than absolute points.

How the world sees a player is irrelevant when you are a team executive evaluating the quality of a player and the repeat-ability of their production for the purposes of determining contract value.

Like I said earlier, if matthews and mack both finished ~100 points, then you can start looking at their 5vs5, per 60 etc etc. The very fact that you're not using absolute points as your starting point means you are willfully ignoring information that does not fit with your bias. And then when you start building in excuses (Babcock sucks, he doesn't give Matthews enough PP time); thats when your arguments break down.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

There is def always game management all the time every game of the year.

If the refs followed the rulebook to the letter there would be a penalty every shift

Too often game management means that each team ends up with the same number of penalties regardless of the number of infractions each team commits.
If game management was more representative of the ratio of infractions between the two teams then it wouldn't be nearly the issue it is.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If you are counting Horton's deal that doesn't make any difference. Still puts them at 9.3M and Marner will command more than that. Even if he settles at 9M, the Leafs will be right up against the cap for years with little to no room for roster improvement.

The Leafs are not going to run a 24-person roster. That is illegal.

With a 22-man roster, they can go up to ~10.5m, which is likely more than they'd pay him anyway, unless there's an offer sheet, which doesn't look likely. With a less-than-ideal-but-still-better-than-losing-major-pieces-off-the-team 20-man roster and some cap maneuvering, they can go to ~11.5m.

They have cap space clearing up next season, and don't really need much external improvement.

 

[ToDavid]

Leafs fans are angry because they can see the writing on the wall. Somethings gotta give. You can't have a potential 8 figure free agent with just under $4M in cap space. This isn't going to end well. They essentially have to choose between Willie and Mitchell

Cool story.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Like I said earlier, if matthews and mack both finished ~100 points, then you can start looking at their 5vs5, per 60 etc etc.

Or you can not blindly ignore context until very specific and arbitrary conditions are met.

The very fact that you're not using absolute points as your starting point means you are willfully ignoring information that does not fit with your bias.

This doesn't make any sense. You've just arbitrarily decided that absolute points are the only thing that matters. I'm glad my GM disagrees.

And then when you start building in excuses (Babcock sucks, he doesn't give Matthews enough PP time); thats when your arguments break down.

There are no excuses. There is context to explain why absolute number rankings may not match rate rankings, because you came in and started having a problem.

 

[danpantz]

The Leafs are not going to run a 24-person roster. That is illegal.

With a 22-man roster, they can go up to ~10.5m, which is likely more than they'd pay him anyway, unless there's an offer sheet, which doesn't look likely. With a less-than-ideal-but-still-better-than-losing-major-pieces-off-the-team 20-man roster and some cap maneuvering, they can go to ~11.5m.

They have cap space clearing up next season, and don't really need much external improvement.

They're clearing up cap space because they need to resign 5/6 defenseman after this season.

 

[NinjaKick]

Bruins eliminated the Leafs due primarily to injuries, luck, and the single best PP% of any team playing more than 12 games in more than 40 years (that was even better against us).

PP stats were also posted, and he also excels at that.

OT... but to add to that. I have to take into consideration Kadri... he's a incredibly effective depth player when he's on a tight leash and in the end... he hurt the Leafs with his suspension.
Imo Boston is the ultimate test to get to the next level, it's almost fate at this point because the Leafs keep matching up against them...
in the end, Kadri hurt the Leafs and now Dubas replaced him with effective players in Barrie and Kerfoot... Dubas has done a solid job so far

 

[Dekes For Days]

They're clearing up cap space because they need to resign 5/6 defenseman after this season.

Yep. And they'll re-sign some of them, maybe make a trade, and bring up their top prospects to fill other spots, like all contenders.

 

[Legion34]

Its not necessarily defensive of Mack. I’m not here pulling out the per 60s. Mack’s point totals speak for themselves.

Never said Matthews is not good. But he’s not on Mack’s level when he finished with 60 less points in the last two years!

You do realize that Matthews outscored mackinnon by 60 goals at this point in their careers right?

60 goals.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

OT... but to add to that. I have to take into consideration Kadri... he's a incredibly effective depth player and in the end... he hurt the Leafs with his suspension.
Imo Boston is the ultimate test to get to the next level, it's almost fate at this point because the Leafs keep matching up against them...
in the end, Kadri hurt the Leafs and now Dubas replaced him with effective players in Barrie and Kerfoot... Dubas has done a solid job so far

Last series especially. The Leafs big strength was supposed to be strong center depth down the middle and the ability to play Matthews and Nylander together at home. Kadri's being reckless arguably lost them that series.

 

[Legion34]

Imagine leaf fan’s response if I said Mack was as good as Matthews during Matthew’s rookie season. When the two were separate by like 18ish points.

If mackinnon was as good as Matthews it wouldn’t have taken him 5 years to break 100 goals.. and have to rely on the refs gifting the Avs the Most pp in the league

The avs finished 17th in a 16 team playoff league.

Good for them

 

[zeke]

Obviously a bit of an exaggeration on my part. But when people start ignoring total points, they are basically building excuses for their players (i.e. being an apologist).

Er, no.

Judging players by total points is...well, dumb.

 

[NinjaKick]

Last series especially. The Leafs big strength was supposed to be strong center depth down the middle and the ability to play Matthews and Nylander together at home. Kadri's being reckless arguably lost them that series.

the Leafs core can match up vs any core in the league...
Kadri very well could have been the difference maker in game 7... When Kadri was suspended I was like... "uh oh, that might cost the Leafs the series" ...and in the end, you could argue that is what happened

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

The goal is to win playoff series until you win the cup, which Mack also does better than Matthews.

Let's compare apples to apples.

Matthews at age 19 (2016-17) scored 40 goals 69 points in 82 games
Mackinnon at age 19 (2015-15) scored 14 goals 38 points in 64 games

Matthews at age 20 (2017-18) scored 34 goals 63 points in 62 games
Mackinnon at age 20 (2015-16) scored 21 goals 52 points in 72 games

Matthews at age 21 (2018-19) scored 37 goals 73 points in 68 games
Mackinnon at age 21 (2016-17) scored 16 goals 53 points in 82 games

Over his 19 - 21 years Matthews scored 111 goals 205 points in 212 games
Over his 19 - 21 years Mackinnon scored 51 goals 143 points in 218 games

I agree with you that there is a large difference between these two players.

 

[zeke]

Its not necessarily defensive of Mack. I’m not here pulling out the per 60s. Mack’s point totals speak for themselves.

Never said Matthews is not good. But he’s not on Mack’s level when he finished with 60 less points in the last two years!

His point totals do not speak for themselves, is the thing.

 

[NinjaKick]

OT... but if you actually watch Matthews play you can see that he is a star and has elite talent.... the kid is like a human Nintendo Game Genie... he can score from ANYWHERE...
the best thing, he's only 21... not even in his prime yet..

 

[Seanaconda]

You do realize that Matthews outscored mackinnon by 60 goals at this point in their careers right?

60 goals.

This is getting sad . Development isn't linear but yes Matthews is good . Rantanen and marner are both good. Fans of both the leafs and avs should be happy to have the players they have.

 

[zeke]

I'm just here stating result based numbers. Numbers that determine how the world sees that player. Not manipulating said numbers by adding and subtracting context that fits how I want to evaluate a player.

Numbers that definitely do not determine how smart hockey people see those players.