Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega-Thread (all Marner talk here) (MOD WARNING)

[MMC]

The old thread just hit the limit and there's undoubtedly going to be a ton of talk around him in the coming weeks with the Finals being over. Post all rumors, speculation, and proposals here.

Enough of the fanbase bickering and off-topic diversions. This thread isn't about the Raptors or Knicks or parades and there's been enough bickering. If you feel a user is trolling, please report it so that a moderator can look into it. There'll be thread bans and/or warnings if this keeps happening.

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[Tripod]

A 2nd round comp is nothing...easy match, 4 1sts? That might look bad either way...if the Leafs decline and Marner continues to be a great player? Looks bad on them. But if he regresses...even by 10-15 points...is he worth 12.5 and 4 1sts? What if said team has a injury riddled season and one of those 1sts is a lottery pick?

Risks are there both ways.

I would not offer 4 1sts for Marner. And honestly, if someone does the Leafs should take the picks and capspace.

But with Kapanen...and even AJ, if some OS them at 4 million then that could be tough for the Leafs to take on assuming Marner is signing. THAT'S the play I would make as a GM to squeeze the Leafs, not Marner.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I would not offer 4 1sts for Marner. And honestly, if someone does the Leafs should take the picks and capspace.

But with Kapanen...and even AJ, if some OS them at 4 million then that could be tough for the Leafs to take on assuming Marner is signing. THAT'S the play I would make as a GM to squeeze the Leafs, not Marner.

And why would a GM go out of their way overpaying a player and paying assets to do so just to squeeze the leafs?

Something tells me GMs care more about making their team better and less about screwing the leafs over.

 

[realgoodleafs]

Lots of smoke out there of a bidding war between Montreal and the Islanders. 14x5 gets it done.

 

[Michael HOMERUNing]

And why would a GM go out of their way overpaying a player and paying assets to do so just to squeeze the leafs?

Something tells me GMs care more about making their team better and less about screwing the leafs over.

I think 4x4 for either player would be a fair deal

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I would not offer 4 1sts for Marner. And honestly, if someone does the Leafs should take the picks and capspace.

But with Kapanen...and even AJ, if some OS them at 4 million then that could be tough for the Leafs to take on assuming Marner is signing. THAT'S the play I would make as a GM to squeeze the Leafs, not Marner.

I like Kap and Johnsson they are both great players the difference is Marner is a superstar you keep the superstar player

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

I would not offer 4 1sts for Marner. And honestly, if someone does the Leafs should take the picks and capspace.

But with Kapanen...and even AJ, if some OS them at 4 million then that could be tough for the Leafs to take on assuming Marner is signing. THAT'S the play I would make as a GM to squeeze the Leafs, not Marner.

The problem I have is that if I am a GM, I only go the 4x 1st level if I have a LOADED team knowing that my 1st picks will be in the 20-30 range over the next 4 years. With that being said - those type of teams typically don't have the $12.5M of capspace, especially for the least valuable position (winger).

 

[Tripod]

And why would a GM go out of their way overpaying a player and paying assets to do so just to squeeze the leafs?

Something tells me GMs care more about making their team better and less about screwing the leafs over.

Sigh. It's not about squeezing the Leafs. It's about squeezing the Leafs so they don't match and so the acquiring team can gain a 40-60 point guy for around 4 million....and old cost a 2nd rounder.

As a fan of the Flyers, no issue if they offered him 4 million per over 5 years.

Use some common sense in what I was saying.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Id be shocked if he signed an offer sheet. Think he just re-signs with the Leafs whenever one side budges.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I think 4x4 for either player would be a fair deal

They didnt have that much better seasons than connor browns rookie season. Goals
/60 went Aj, Brown, Kap and A1/60 went AJ, Kap Brown. QOC I would wager goes Brown, Kap, AJ. With brown and Kap pretty close.

Brown's contract with an 83 million dollar ceiling would be 2.3 x 3 years. Personally I think 4x4 is likely too much for either player.

 

[shortfuze]

Lots of smoke out there of a bidding war between Montreal and the Islanders. 14x5 gets it done.

why would either team overpay to get marner? not only overpay marner but now their own players would see what marner got and would want overpayment as well. it doesnt make sense to overpay other teams players. thats why you dont see GM's offer sheeting very much.

 

[Tripod]

I like Kap and Johnsson they are both great players the difference is Marner is a superstar you keep the superstar player

One way to look at it is that you added JT for free except capspace. So Marner's cap essentially gets moved to JT...and you add 4 1st rd picks.

But as I said, I don't think any GM will offer that 4 1st level contract.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Sigh. It's not about squeezing the Leafs. It's about squeezing the Leafs so they don't match and so the acquiring team can gain a 40-60 point guy for around 4 million....and old cost a 2nd rounder.

As a fan of the Flyers, no issue if they offered him 4 million per over 5 years.

Use some common sense in what I was saying.

Common sense in multiple threads full of leaf bashing and I'm just supposed to assume you didnt mean that when you say "THAT'S the play I would make as a GM to squeeze the Leafs, not Marner."

Now AJ and Kap are 40-60 point guys?? Try saying that in any other trade proposal thread whereby they get treated like a throw in to dump Marleau lol.

 

[tradenashnow]

I would not offer 4 1sts for Marner. And honestly, if someone does the Leafs should take the picks and capspace.

But with Kapanen...and even AJ, if some OS them at 4 million then that could be tough for the Leafs to take on assuming Marner is signing. THAT'S the play I would make as a GM to squeeze the Leafs, not Marner.

The Leafs would be dumb to take that. The odds you would draft a player of his level is slim to none. What the Leafs need to do is trade Nylander for defenseman.

 

[Skin Tape Session]

What planet are the people who say take the picks and move on? Four dice rolls four consecutive years? For 90 point player in his early 20's? Lmfao

Iove the the way folks here speak as if the four picks >>>>Marner and the team giving up the picks are doing us a favor .

Would you take four 1st picks for Connor? Keep in mind Connor will keep you out of last place and near playoff contention. If you answer yes then you're crazy

 

[Randy Randerson]

What planet are the people who say take the picks and move on? Four dice rolls four consecutive years? For 90 point player in his early 20's? Lmfao

Iove the the way folks here speak as if the four picks >>>>Marner and the team giving up the picks are doing us a favor .

Would you take four 1st picks for Connor? Keep in mind Connor will keep you out of last place and near playoff contention. If you answer yes then you're crazy

you're missing the cap space component, and that the picks are probably coming from a team 1) that hasn't been in contention recently so has its next four 1sts 2) has the cap space to sign him so they can't have that much spare talent lying around and 3) will have over-committed to him financially so their ability to supplement the talent around him will be inhibited until the cap rises enough, the time that hurts the most is while you have their picks

no one is excited at the idea of losing Marner, but the consolation prize is (probably) pretty good

 

[Dog]

What planet are the people who say take the picks and move on? Four dice rolls four consecutive years? For 90 point player in his early 20's? Lmfao

Iove the the way folks here speak as if the four picks >>>>Marner and the team giving up the picks are doing us a favor .

Would you take four 1st picks for Connor? Keep in mind Connor will keep you out of last place and near playoff contention. If you answer yes then you're crazy

McDavid? If so no way Marner is the same as him. Only MacKinnon comes close and even then it's decisively McDavid first.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

I like Kap and Johnsson they are both great players the difference is Marner is a superstar you keep the superstar player

As a Hawks fan, it was VERY tough as a fan to see the GM have to make some really tough moves where quality players were moved for $.25 on the dollar. The Hawks were lucky compared to the Leafs from a timing perspective that they were able to win their Cups before actually having to pay the players elite money.

The big thing to me is that Marner makes the players around him better. The Leafs are going to have to be really good at drafting and developing because their salary cap situation will likely mean that as soon as the "non-elite" players deserve to get paid they are going to have to be moved.

 

[BlueBaron]

And why would a GM go out of their way overpaying a player and paying assets to do so just to squeeze the leafs?

Something tells me GMs care more about making their team better and less about screwing the leafs over.

They assume NHL GM's are as obsessed with the Leafs as HF is. I mean the amount of talk about Leaf offer sheet around here is beyond comical. It's desperate and pathetic. Any other RFA offer sheet threads? No? hmmmm

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

They assume NHL GM's are as obsessed with the Leafs as HF is. I mean the amount of talk about Leaf offer sheet around here is beyond comical. It's desperate and pathetic. Any other RFA offer sheet threads? No? hmmmm

I keep reading this but I'm confused about something. I am only using Capfriendly as a guide but it seems Carolina, Colorado and TB, three teams that have marquee restricted FA's can give each of Aho, Rantonen and Point 10m per season contracts and still ice a complete team.

Toronto is at 74M currently and has three one-way contracts to sign in top 6 forwards, one of them a marquee. That's why there's so much speculation. Offer sheet TB, Colorado and Carolina and they'll match easily and not really lose anyone off their roster of importance. Offer sheet Marner and Toronto has to make some big decisions, so it's obvious why there's so much talk about their situation compared to others.

The other teams will still have their issues...

I don't think Marner's going to get an offer sheet. I think he's going to go 4-5 years at 10 to 11 per. Toronto will have to deal one of Kapanen or Johahnsson and will survive.

The issue is overblown like everything else here on HFBoards or by the clickbait journalists.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

As a Hawks fan, it was VERY tough as a fan to see the GM have to make some really tough moves where quality players were moved for $.25 on the dollar. The Hawks were lucky compared to the Leafs from a timing perspective that they were able to win their Cups before actually having to pay the players elite money.

The big thing to me is that Marner makes the players around him better. The Leafs are going to have to be really good at drafting and developing because their salary cap situation will likely mean that as soon as the "non-elite" players deserve to get paid they are going to have to be moved.

Don't get me wrong I Don't WANT to lose Johnsson or Kapanen, as I said they are great players , but I also believ you can find another Johnsson if you have to he was a 7th round pick there aee steals in every draft.

You can find another Kapanen if you have to .

You can't find another Marner .

at the end of the day unless Kapanen or Johnsson are in a package for a D man I don't think anybody is leaving because Zaitsev Brown and Marleau are pretty much 100% gone So money is getting freed up

 

[BlueBaron]

I keep reading this but I'm confused about something. I am only using Capfriendly as a guide but it seems Carolina, Colorado and TB, three teams that have marquee restricted FA's can give each of Aho, Rantonen and Point 10m per season contracts and still ice a complete team.

Toronto is at 74M currently and has three one-way contracts to sign in top 6 forwards, one of them a marquee. That's why there's so much speculation. Offer sheet TB, Colorado and Carolina and they'll match easily and not really lose anyone off their roster of importance. Offer sheet Marner and Toronto has to make some big decisions, so it's obvious why there's so much talk about their situation compared to others.

The other teams will still have their issues...

I don't think Marner's going to get an offer sheet. I think he's going to go 4-5 years at 10 to 11 per. Toronto will have to deal one of Kapanen or Johahnsson and will survive.

The issue is overblown like everything else here on HFBoards or by the clickbait journalists.

While what you have said is true it ignores some obvious facts.

1. The history of offer sheets which pretty much are like unicorns

2. Marner's personal attachment to his home town and his stated to desire to spend his career here. this means he is more likely to use an offer sheet as a negotiating talk point rather than screw his club by signing something he really doesn't need to. He's probably not nervous about getting paid, he does not need to jump at anything July 1.

3. The team in question would have to massively overpay to snag him, a 1 mil bump probably isn't going to do it. We would match and adapt and our Cap situation has a lot more flexibility than HF likes to pretend. Overpaying a player and giving up picks in not that attractive.

4. By the look of it the only good team that could plausibly offer him 12.5+ is Buffalo. Not a big pool to be gambling on. Why is Mitch leaving his hometown Contender to join a lesser team? Also divisional rival, Mitch might not like that and we'd be even more inclined to match.

Reasons it could happen.

Leafs on HF

 

[Martin Skoula]

I keep reading this but I'm confused about something. I am only using Capfriendly as a guide but it seems Carolina, Colorado and TB, three teams that have marquee restricted FA's can give each of Aho, Rantonen and Point 10m per season contracts and still ice a complete team.

Toronto is at 74M currently and has three one-way contracts to sign in top 6 forwards, one of them a marquee. That's why there's so much speculation. Offer sheet TB, Colorado and Carolina and they'll match easily and not really lose anyone off their roster of importance. Offer sheet Marner and Toronto has to make some big decisions, so it's obvious why there's so much talk about their situation compared to others.

The other teams will still have their issues...

I don't think Marner's going to get an offer sheet. I think he's going to go 4-5 years at 10 to 11 per. Toronto will have to deal one of Kapanen or Johahnsson and will survive.

The issue is overblown like everything else here on HFBoards or by the clickbait journalists.

Tampa's at 74 mil and has to sign a 40 goal 90 point center and 2-3 more forwards + 2 defensemen. How is that much better?

 

[HabsTown]

While what you have said is true it ignores some obvious facts.

1. The history of offer sheets which pretty much are like unicorns

2. Marner's personal attachment to his home town and his stated to desire to spend his career here. this means he is more likely to use an offer sheet as a negotiating talk point rather than screw his club by signing something he really doesn't need to. He's probably not nervous about getting paid, he does not need to jump at anything July 1.

3. The team in question would have to massively overpay to snag him, a 1 mil bump probably isn't going to do it. We would match and adapt and our Cap situation has a lot more flexibility than HF likes to pretend. Overpaying a player and giving up picks in not that attractive.

4. By the look of it the only good team that could plausibly offer him 12.5+ is Buffalo. Not a big pool to be gambling on. Why is Mitch leaving his hometown Contender to join a lesser team? Also divisional rival, Mitch might not like that and we'd be even more inclined to match.

Reasons it could happen.

Leafs on HF

Habs could offer 12.5M too but I doubt Marner signs an OS anyway.

 

[BlueBaron]

Habs could offer 12.5M too but I doubt Marner signs an OS anyway.

But it wouldn't make sense, winger strong team needs a C. I can think of a guy who is a better fit and happens to be French.