Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part VIII | We Waitin'

[Stephen]

Does Toronto have any plans to meet with Rantanen, Point, Aho, Provorov and Werenski?

 

[DarkKnight]

You have zero argument to justify your position and just insult others as a counter.

Please point me to one post about Nylander where you disparaged him and I’ll retract my factual comment. It’s not an insult, it’s the truth and it’s quite easy to see actually. Anyways, you and fruit boy have an nice evening, I know I will.

 

[Superstar]

Context is important... nothing wrong with sub sampling a season, especially if used in the proper context.

Do you expect a 21 year old to improve from October to April? OF COURSE YOU DO!

Its perfectly fine to take the latter sample IMO, and its not cherry picking if you're clear what you're describing. Marner in April 2018 was a completely different player than Marner in October 2017. It doesn't make sense to use data from way back in October when evaluating how goood marner was... Last season, it was pretty obvious there was a really good chance of Marner scoring more than 90 points... and he did it!

Context is he played with Tavares and his production increased over 36%, while Tavares only increased by less than 4.7% from the previous year, and only 2.3% from his previous career high...Matthews play with guys like Johnsson, Kapanen and Marleau...missed 14 games and still scored 37 goals. Tavares has made every winger better throughout his decade of playing time in the NHL...Anders Lee scored 40 goals 2 years ago playing with Tavares. The year Marner had 69 points in 82 games, Matthews had 63 points in 62 games and scored 34 goals, while Marner only managed 22 goals in 20 more games...one is an elite franchise centre, one is not...but hey, Marner should get Matthews money, right?

I like Marner, but he's not the best winger in the NHL and shouldn't be paid like one, let alone be paid like an elite scoring centre.

 

[Bomber0104]

Yes, but the Leafs might be the first team to pay 3 players 11+ million before any other team has paid 3 players what? Has a team ever played 3 players 8 million? The cap goes up, but three salaries at 11+ million and this team is likely not only not a contender, it will be lucky to make the playoffs most years.

That poster is talking out of his ass, in case it isn't abundantly obvious.

 

[Contenderorpretender]

I bet his dad is a dick

 

[member 300185]

Dubas needs to grow a set. Here is exactly how he should play it.

"Take the deal or get traded".

Marner says "NO"

Dubas says "start packing".

Dubas sends out an email that Marner is available. Take biggest and best package. And Marner is traded before he finishes packing. 30 teams will want him.

Saga over.

 

[saffronleaf]

Paul Marner should be exiled.

 

[MyBudJT]

You can't cut the first 30 games of the season off though, there is no way Marner was worth 9M before last season started by any comparable you care to find, calling someone names because they point that out is just bad

I understand where you're coming from, but the point he's making still has validity. He's not comparing players, he simply stating that Marner had a slow start to the season, and really picked it up over a very large sample size. When you expect a player to improve from October to April, it totally makes sense to omit the first portion of the season.

If you're worried about comparing these numbers... then the best way would probably be splitting the season in half, and compare the 2nd half outputs. Reason being, you'd expect the 2nd half would be the better representation of player becasue they're DEVELOPING. 41 games is still a large sample size to evaluate players.

He was calling the guy out (rightly or wrongly), but he wasn't calling him names....

 

[Bomber0104]

First of all the Leafs aren't paying 3 players over 10 even now. Marner does not have a deal yet.

Pitt just won 2 cups with top salaries of 9.5 , 8.7, and 7.25. 2 of those contracts were signed a long time ago.

That's the equivalent to 3 players making over 8.

And the first two of those contracts belonged to Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin - two of the top 3 forwards in the world at the time

You're comparing Matthews and JT to those two??

 

[MyBudJT]

Context is he played with Tavares and his production increased over 36%, while Tavares only increased by less than 4.7% from the previous year, and only 2.3% from his previous career high...Matthews play with guys like Johnsson, Kapanen and Marleau...missed 14 games and still scored 37 goals. Tavares has made every winger better throughout his decade of playing time in the NHL...Anders Lee scored 40 goals 2 years ago playing with Tavares. The year Marner had 69 points in 82 games, Matthews had 63 points in 62 games and scored 34 goals, while Marner only managed 22 goals in 20 more games...one is an elite franchise centre, one is not...but hey, Marner should get Matthews money, right?

I like Marner, but he's not the best winger in the NHL and shouldn't be paid like one, let alone be paid like an elite scoring centre.

Maybe I'm mistaken, I think they were discussing the 2017-18 season. What does Tavares have to do with it?

Now, I'll play your games. You're not making any sense. Lets say next season, Marner's production increases to 110, while Tavares' production increases to 90. Because Marner had a larger statistical improvement, does that mean that Tavares is the better player? OF COURSE NOT!!!

 

[CelticDruid]

Please point me to one post about Nylander where you disparaged him and I’ll retract my factual comment. It’s not an insult, it’s the truth and it’s quite easy to see actually. Anyways, you and fruit boy have an nice evening, I know I will.

Fruit boy? LOL

Poor Kiwi

 

[18leafsfan18]

So in other words, you don't have any evidence that 3 of the most expensive contracts in the league can win in a hard cap system.

Thanks for admitting it.

Takes a big man to admit defeat.

Look at my post to the other poster.

Buy a clue.

The cap goes up how can you deny that ?

 

[Bomber0104]

Look at my post to the other poster.

Buy a clue.

The cap goes up how can you deny that ?

I did and I almost fell on the floor laughing at it.

Probably time you backed away from the keyboard there sporty Spice.

 

[DarkKnight]

Context is important... nothing wrong with sub sampling a season, especially if used in the proper context.

Do you expect a 21 year old to improve from October to April? OF COURSE YOU DO!

Its perfectly fine to take the latter sample IMO, and its not cherry picking if you're clear what you're describing. Marner in April 2018 was a completely different player than Marner in October 2017. It doesn't make sense to use data from way back in October when evaluating how goood marner was... Last season, it was pretty obvious there was a really good chance of Marner scoring more than 90 points... and he did it!

A second year pro developed. Marner had an excellent first year, then was given the tough love from his coach to become a better player, which resulted in an incredible second half and playoffs. So when your evaluating the next year, do you take the fourth line stint in the fall, or the large subset thereafter. I know what I said at the time. Pretty obvious the kid was developing, I mean that’s how it works. How anybody could have been surprised after watching 2018 is beyond me.

 

[18leafsfan18]

That poster is talking out of his ass, in case it isn't abundantly obvious.

You are literally saying the cap doesnt go up. You are completely lost.

 

[Bomber0104]

You are literally saying the cap doesnt go up. You are completely lost.

No I'm saying that having three of the most expensive contracts in the league may not be a great strategy, and I have all along.

Try reading.

 

[Kiwi]

Yes I dismissed the fall of 2017, in favour of the last 132 games. Lol.

That's nice, perhaps if were pretending that 30 games don't count we should pick his best 30 game stretch over those 2 years and pretend they don't count instead

That's how this works right?

 

[Superstar]

Maybe I'm mistaken, I think they were discussing the 2017-18 season. What does Tavares have to do with it?

Now, I'll play your games. You're not making any sense. Lets say next season, Marner's production increases to 110, while Tavares' production increases to 90. Because Marner had a larger statistical improvement, does that mean that Tavares is the better player? OF COURSE NOT!!!

Tavares is the better player and has been the better player. If Marner actually has any kind of a decent shot, he would score more goals and Tavares would have more assists. As it is, Tavares is the shooting threat on his line. They play on a line together...Tavares' points totals didn't increase much, while Marner's did...if Marner gets 110 points, Tavares would be a 100 point centre, but he didn't.

 

[Al14]

Does Toronto have any plans to meet with Rantanen, Point, Aho, Provorov and Werenski?

There's no money to sign any of them. I think Dubas has already declared that he'll not be active with free agency.

 

[Mess]

If you're using team comparables (Dubie dollars), it's pretty to easy to argue 10 x 5 is fair for Marner, when Matthews got 11.63 x 5. Matthews the superior player, but not by a massive margin, the numbers acknowledge that fact. You can see how his camp sees that as fair using Dubie dollars. I mean reality suggests otherwise, but that doesn't apply here. The precedent has been set, we don't get to go back.

Dubas signs Nylander to top dollar and Willy gives away only 1 year of UFA status.
Dubas signs Matthews to top dollar and Auston gives away only 1 year of UFA status.

Now its Marner's turn, and Dubas suddenly wants 8 year term and Marner is expected to give away 4 years of UFA status to get top dollar.

Gee, I wonder why the Marner camp is pushing back and asking "Why Me" Dubas are the rules suddenly changing for me to get my deal?

Suddenly it seems like a light bulb went off in Dubas head and he is starting to understand how NHL contracts and the salary cap works, that the goal is to buy as many costly UFA years as possible from the players to average out over the cheap RFA years if you're going to hand out top $$ rate of pay to keep your key core young players locked up long term not free at age 26/27.

Its not hard to understand why there is a problem here with Dubas offering $10 mil but needs 8 years from Marner, and Mitch saying wait a minute $11 mil X 5 years with only 1 year of UFA status is the structure you gave Willy and Auston.

Even an offer sheet averaged over 5 years would get Mitch $10.56 mil per annul (minimum rate of pay) and likely numerous teams would give him that ask if they thought it would land them Marner for 2 X 1sts, 2nd and 3rd as compensation. There is only $440k difference between $11 mil and $10.56 mil on a 5 year deal and the whole OS nonsense can be avoided Kyle would be what Ferris would say.

 

[613Leafer]

Dreger seems to be completely insane

So is it Mitch Dreger or Darren Marner? I really can't tell these days.

 

[MyBudJT]

Tavares is the better player and has been the better player. If Marner actually has any kind of a decent shot, he would score more goals and Tavares would have more assists. As it is, Tavares is the shooting threat on his line. They play on a line together...Tavares' points totals didn't increase much, while Marner's did...if Marner gets 110 points, Tavares would be a 100 point centre, but he didn't.

So if Marner's point totals increase more than Tavares' next season? Lets say Marner goes from 94 to 110 points (+16) and Tavares goes from 88 to 91 points (+3). Does that mean Tavares is the better player, still?

 

[MattySnipes]

Back to binging The Sopranos.

 

[18leafsfan18]

You're directly comparing Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, full stop, to Matthews and Tavares.

Your words, not mine.

Unless you can't keep up with your own ridiculous arguments?

We weren't comparing players in any way.

Are you honestly forgetting what you wrote.

Stick to the argument you made and defend it dont change the argument half way through it.

 

[DarkKnight]

Dubas signs Nylander to top dollar and Willy gives away only 1 year of UFA status.
Dubas signs Matthews to top dollar and Auston gives away only 1 year of UFA status.

Now its Marner's turn, and Dubas suddenly wants 8 year term and Marner is expected to give away 4 years of UFA status to get top dollar.

Gee, I wonder why the Marner camp is pushing back and asking "Why Me" Dubas are the rules suddenly changing for me to get my deal?

Suddenly it seems like a light bulb went off in Dubas head and he is starting to understand how NHL contracts and the salary cap works, that the goal is to buy as many costly UFA years as possible from the players to average out over the cheap RFA years if you're going to hand out top $$ rate of pay to keep your key core young players locked up long term not free at age 26/27.

Its not hard to understand why there is a problem here with Dubas offering $10 mil but needs 8 years from Marner, and Mitch saying wait a minute $11 mil X 5 years with only 1 year of UFA status is the structure you gave Willy and Auston.

Even an offer sheet averaged over 5 years would get Mitch $10.56 mil per annul (minimum rat of pay) and likely numerous teams would give him that ask if they thought it would land them Marner for 2 X 1sts, 2nd and 3rd as compensation. There is only $440k difference between $11 mil and $10.56 mil on a 5 year deal and the whole OS nonsense can be avoided Kyle would be what Ferris would say.

Agree completely. People are wasting their time with external comparables, they don’t apply here. The kid put up as many points per 60 even strength than Matthews, he was a top player in takeaways, played against other teams best line, evolved into a first line PKer and gave a 10 year pro a career year, by a mile 5 v 5! He’s looking at the club dynamics and the money is recognition. We aren’t here because of him, that I’m certain of...we botched the Big 3.

As an aside, I don’t believe he is worth what he’s asking, never have. But, I don’t believe the other two do either, especially on that term, so....In Dubie dollars his ask has merit.