Speculation: Mission Impossible: The search for a #1

[Pavels Dog]

Kindl and Smith felt like safe bets when they were 18 and 20 too...

Totally disagree. Hronek and Cholo have both hit the NHL much sooner than Kindl/Smith, and with decent results. Seider is just worlds ahead as a prospect and could probably play in the NHL next year.

Measured optimism is good but no need to be overly pessimistic just because worse prospect in the past failed.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Totally disagree. Hronek and Cholo have both hit the NHL much sooner than Kindl/Smith, and with decent results. Seider is just worlds ahead as a prospect and could probably play in the NHL next year.

Measured optimism is good but no need to be overly pessimistic just because worse prospect in the past failed.

The wings were a better team when Smith and Kindl were 18 and 20, had a different team philosophy and were Stanley cup contenders. We almost never played any rookies especially on defense. The comparisons are the same the only luxury you have is time of knowing all those prior guys ended up all being complete busts....

 

[Reddwit]

The wings are set at defense imo.

Cholowski, Hronek and Seider are in the group with Lidstrom, Konstantinov, Fischer and Kronwall as far as the best defense prospects i've seen for us. Light years ahead of Smith, Kindl, Sproul, Wallin etc

If none of those 3 turn into no.1's, then I guess you have to go shopping with our 40 mil of cap space at some point.

Beyond that we have guys like Johansson, Tuomisto, Kotkansalo, Setkov and Lindstrom. There's a depth and age variety issue there, but also some high ceilings for a secondary group.

I love that we are all well versed in how seriously sophmore slumps affect d-men, but I think people will be singing a different tune as the preseason heats up, and then again in 3 months and 3 years.

Cholowski is the first on the chopping block though. Needs to have another monster preseason to keep pace. It is partly our job as fans to root for that to happen though.

I'm loving the Seider pick but I haven't seen enough of him to say he's in that class with confidence just yet. I see the quality now just waiting on the quantity. He definitely seems like he could be in the mold of Hronek though - toolsy without being flashy (at the same age) but still cerebral.

Otherwise I agree with your post all around. Cholowski has work to do but he's already ahead of the curve for us statistically speaking.

Kindl and Smith felt like safe bets when they were 18 and 20 too...

At the time we all thought Smith would be what Hronek looks like he would be and more. My point is it's a crapshoot.

The wings were a better team when Smith and Kindl were 18 and 20, had a different team philosophy and were Stanley cup contenders. We almost never played any rookies especially on defense. The comparisons are the same the only luxury you have is time of knowing all those prior guys ended up all being complete busts....

Nah, the comparisons are not the same at all.

A lot of the thinking that Kindl and Smith were "safe bets" was simply a fanbase that desperately wanted them to be that way because we needed them to be while excusing away the warning signs. We'd also just gone 4 drafts without a 1st round pick and we many felt like the end was near with our post-season performances after 2002. And perhaps most importantly, we still had faith in the Wings scouting braintrust more or less. Fischer was finally rounding back into rookie form after the knee injury and Kronwall was hitting all his marks around the time we drafted Kindl and Smith didn't come long after.

But regardless of the Red Wings fans’ communal psyche at the time re: prospects, from a collective talent (i.e. eye test), statistical, and developmental comparison, there…isn’t one. Hronek has performed significantly better and progressed faster than not just Kindl/Smith but even Kronwall in some respects. (I have oodles of fun facts that suggest as much if you want that argument fleshed out when I have more time.)

Cholowski is less of a certainty but he’s at least already separated himself from Kindl/Smith offensively at the same/younger age. I also like the fact that he hasn't exactly had things go his way and yet is still advancing, albeit slower than Hronek. I don't want to sound like I'm making excuses for Cholowski but the fact that he looked like he his balls hadn't even dropped yet when he was drafted probably didn't make his development path any easier. Bouncing through 5 different leagues and 6 different teams in a matter of 3 years probably didn't either. He's hitting his marks regardless.