Miscellaneous NHL Talk XXXI - 2019 Offseason

[CanadianFlyer88]

Adults only thread closed. @Striiker can return.

Our bouncers (read: Mods) did a terrible job enforcing the age limit in the last thread.

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[MacDonald4MVP]

That's a sample size that becomes so large it's useless for the present, too. Someone who is on the decline would get floated higher than they should be by earlier seasons.

Past three years Foligno is still above Jake, Tavares too and he just had 47 goal season.

 

[Striiker]

Adults only thread closed. @Striiker can return.

Our bouncers (read: Mods) did a terrible job enforcing the age limit in the last thread.

Oh good. I think the mods were starting to get suspicious of my fake ID.

 

[deadhead]

All hockey stats need to be taken with a grain of salt, but generally, the consensus of statistics will paint a pretty good picture.

AMac wasn't horrible (he could look pitiful at times), he was good at goal suppression, and generally was a generic 3rd pair defenseman.
Gudas was a top 3rd pair defenseman, but advanced metrics overrate him b/c they don't really account for usage, that is, if you shelter someone, they'll put up good metrics - look at Sanheim with Gudas on the 3rd pair v Sanheim's numbers with Provorov on the 1st pair.

Voracek was a very good player until three years ago, when his defense went from average to above average to among the worst in the NHL. That's why he doesn't do well on advanced metrics, he scores but doesn't contribute much else.

JVR was a solid player with Bozak in Toronto, I think he can find similar chemistry with Hayes.

TK really fell off defensively last season, especially under Gordon, but at 22 and playing for a HC who will ride him hard if he makes similar mistakes this year I expect a rebound. He's got the motor to be solid defensively, and the fireplug body to forecheck, but he goes brain dead at times.

Myers got his feet wet, but I can't imagine him putting up similar bad metrics this year with Ghost as his partner, once they figure out how to work together, they should push for top 4 PT.

The Flyers have a lot of players who can elevate their game this season, it's up to AV to get them there.

 

[Harhis]

Voracek was a very good player until three years ago, when his defense went from average to above average to among the worst in the NHL. That's why he doesn't do well on advanced metrics, he scores but doesn't contribute much else.

You got to be kidding me? So what stats back that up? The eye test doesn't, neither do stats.

 

[mja]

Oh good. I think the mods were starting to get suspicious of my fake ID.

 

[deadhead]

You got to be kidding me? So what stats back that up? The eye test doesn't, neither do stats.

The eye test definitely backs it up, Voracek has numerous games where he glides on defense.
And so do the metrics:
2013-16, 2016-19 (averages):

Evolving Hockey:
xGA/60: -.073, .+094
EV GAR: 8.5, 0.5

Natural Stat Trick:
xGF%: 53.11, 49.46
xGA/60: 2.11, 2.34
HDCA/60: 9.43, 10.52

E +/- (total)
2014-16: +21.4 (2 years, no data for 2013-14)
2016-19: +10.7

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Adults only thread closed. @Striiker can return.

Our bouncers (read: Mods) did a terrible job enforcing the age limit in the last thread.

Oh good. I think the mods were starting to get suspicious of my fake ID.

 

[Striiker]

I didn’t snitch. You’re still safe and they suspect nothing.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I didn’t snitch. You’re still safe and they suspect nothing.

 

[Harhis]

The eye test definitely backs it up, Voracek has numerous games where he glides on defense.
And so do the metrics:
2013-16, 2016-19 (averages):

Evolving Hockey:
xGA/60: -.073, .+094
EV GAR: 8.5, 0.5

Natural Stat Trick:
xGF%: 53.11, 49.46
xGA/60: 2.11, 2.34
HDCA/60: 9.43, 10.52

E +/- (total)
2014-16: +21.4 (2 years, no data for 2013-14)
2016-19: +10.7

And based on those metrics you feel confident saying he is one of the worst forwards defensively?

 

[deadhead]

And based on those metrics you feel confident saying he is one of the worst forwards defensively?

Metrics and what I've seen, Voracek has lost a step or two and that's exposed his lack of fundamentals.
Some games he'll back check with effort, others he just glides, and he's not an instinctive defender.

 

[TCTC]

Working with Michel Therrien could do wonders for Voracek. Or it could be a disaster and lead to Voracek being traded... We'll find out.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I don’t think there’s any question that Voracek is inconsistent in his defensive effort. Also, like Konecny, he often causes defensive problems by trying to do too much with the puck. That’s why, even though I like him & am glad he’ll have a better center this season, he can be frustrating to watch. A poor season by the Flyers this year & he’ll almost certainly be on the way out.

 

[Striiker]

If the team isn't successful then trade one of it's best players?

Ok then

 

[Harhis]

Metrics and what I've seen, Voracek has lost a step or two and that's exposed his lack of fundamentals.
Some games he'll back check with effort, others he just glides, and he's not an instinctive defender.

And 3 posts ago you said Amac was not horrible based on stats. Everybody seeing him being horrible is no argument according to you. Double standards much?

 

[kudymen]

And 3 posts ago you said Amac was not horrible based on stats. Everybody seeing him being horrible is no argument according to you. Double standards much?

All you need to know:

 

[David St Hubbins]

And 3 posts ago you said Amac was not horrible based on stats. Everybody seeing him being horrible is no argument according to you. Double standards much?

 

[deadhead]

AMac can look ugly, but he's had a decent career as a 3rd pair caliber defenseman.
Not his fault the Islanders were so bad he played on their 1st pair, or Holmgren was stupid enough to give him that contract.
Career GAR is +23.7. Career EV GAR is +13.2.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

We're really defending MacDonald now?

 

[David St Hubbins]

We're really defending MacDonald now?

 

[dragonoffrost]

We're really defending MacDonald now?

And trading Jake

 

[Tripod]

I wonder....what were the top 10 teams by the "fancy stats" vs what were the top 10 teams in reality. Unless they match up, then they are flawed.

 

[Tripod]

If the team isn't successful then trade one of it's best players?

Ok then

So stupid. "Unless the team wins, we need to trade one of our top 3 point getters!"

 

[hatcher]

So stupid. "Unless the team wins, we need to trade one of our top 3 point getters!"

Points aren't everything Tripod. Flyers forwards are most to blame for the high number of goals against due to NO two way game whatsoever. SHit don't change with these great coaches then it never will. If I'm Provy,Ghost I'd slap all forwards on this team and they need shit to but no help for the d at all. Worst I have ever seen effort wise.