Miscellaneous NHL Talk XVIII - 2018/19 Playoffs

[CanadianFlyer88]

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@kudymen Did you have enough time to finish your thoughts in the last thread?

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[kudymen]

Continue.

@kudymen Did you have enough time to finish your thoughts in the last thread?

Wait a minute...

 

[kudymen]

Done.

 

[Jtown]

@JojoTheWhale

"I have a feeling I'm going to write "Columbus doesn't win that series even 40% of the times it's played," every day from now until October.

We really need to stop treating results as binary."

I am confused greatly by this post. Can you clarify.

 

[Stizzle]

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

@JojoTheWhale

"I have a feeling I'm going to write "Columbus doesn't win that series even 40% of the times it's played," every day from now until October.

We really need to stop treating results as binary."

I am confused greatly by this post. Can you clarify.

I guess thats based on expectations going in to the series, but not actuall on ice play. All of Tampa, Pens and Flames were simply outplayed. Be it by normal numbers or by nerdstats.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

@JojoTheWhale

"I have a feeling I'm going to write "Columbus doesn't win that series even 40% of the times it's played," every day from now until October.

We really need to stop treating results as binary."

I am confused greatly by this post. Can you clarify.

Of course. Let me preface this by saying I don't expect the average fan to think this way because quite frankly, they don't care and that's completely fine. Sports are entertainment products.

I keep seeing the CBJ-TB series brought up as evidence of X or Y seeming truism. I'm not going to hold up a 4 game sample size as necessarily evidence of anything.

Point blank, Columbus was the better team over the 4 Games they played and deserved to win. If they play 1,000 times, how many games does Columbus win? The 4 game determination leads you down roads that aren't necessarily worse, but are undeniably less informed and therefore riskier. There's already more than enough noise in hockey datasets without compressing everything down that far.

Now if you have reason to believe those 4 Games are indicative of something else at play here, I'm all ears, but I'm going to need to see it laid out step by step for me to buy it.

*Edit* Also the flour bag thing.

 

[Beef Invictus]

@JojoTheWhale

"I have a feeling I'm going to write "Columbus doesn't win that series even 40% of the times it's played," every day from now until October.

We really need to stop treating results as binary."

I am confused greatly by this post. Can you clarify.

I think he means that if you repeat this series over an over Columbus is not a guaranteed win every time. I think he also implied that you should eat an entire bag of flour in ten minutes, are you gonna sit here and take that?

 

[deadhead]

CBJ didn't beat TB the way San Jose might luck out over VGK.
That matters, not just who wins, but how they win.
Even good goalies can't be counted on to carry you through more than one or two series.

 

[Jtown]

Of course. Let me preface this by saying I don't expect the average fan to think this way because quite frankly, they don't care and that's completely fine. Sports are entertainment products.

I keep seeing the CBJ-TB series brought up as evidence of X or Y seeming truism. I'm not going to hold up a 4 game sample size as necessarily evidence of anything.

Point blank, Columbus was the better team over the 4 Games they played and deserved to win. If they play 1,000 times, how many games does Columbus win? The 4 game determination leads you down roads that aren't necessarily worse, but are undeniably less informed and therefore riskier. There's already more than enough noise in hockey datasets without compressing everything down that far.

Now if you have reason to believe those 4 Games are indicative of something else at play here, I'm all ears, but I'm going to need to see it laid out step by step for me to buy it.

*Edit* Also the flour bag thing.

A couple of things. "40 percent of the time" . From 2001-2016 1st seeds won at a rate of 78 percent. How recent No. 8 seeds have fared since No. 1 seeds in the NHL playoffs. Tampa was no ordinary 1 seed either. They won the most games in NHL history, and a goal differential of 103. Let's not downplay historically how great Tampa was, by doing that you are trivializing cbj's win. Personally I have not seen much on the flyers board of people trying to rationalize that series into something black or white. Deadhead did make some points that I agree referring to how playoff games are reffed ( i.e. overtime last night in vegas).

However your point about hockey results being binary is puzzling. Win loss is the definition of binary. Am I missing something here?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

A couple of things. "40 percent of the time" . From 2001-2016 1st seeds won at a rate of 78 percent. How recent No. 8 seeds have fared since No. 1 seeds in the NHL playoffs. Tampa was no ordinary 1 seed either. They won the most games in NHL history, and a goal differential of 103. Let's not downplay historically how great Tampa was, by doing that you are trivializing cbj's win. Personally I have not seen much on the flyers board of people trying to rationalize that series into something black or white. Deadhead did make some points that I agree referring to how playoff games are reffed ( i.e. overtime last night in vegas).

However your point about hockey results being binary is puzzling. Win loss is the definition of binary. Am I missing something here?

Right, I'm saying I strongly doubt you can make an argument CBJ wins that 40% of the time. I would guess it to be something more like 25% or lower (I believe I showed my napkin math estimates before when we were talking about CBJ sweep odds), but the other issue is that rarely does an 8 seed make huge additions down the stretch the way Columbus did. They were both strong relative to the average of their seed. I'm not going to tell you I know how to balance those scales.

I was using binary in the sense of X beat Y, so X would have always beaten Y. It gets used in those, "Look how right I was, you idiots" posts and I wish I didn't remember them either.

CBJ didn't beat TB the way San Jose might luck out over VGK.
That matters, not just who wins, but how they win.
Even good goalies can't be counted on to carry you through more than one or two series.

Right.

Step 1: How did this happen?
Step 2: How repeatable is the answer to Step 1?
Step 3: How can we leverage it?

 

[Oskar Man]

Both 1 seeds getting knocked off is good for the sport and makes it more compelling. People tune into March Madness for the upsets. Leagues like the NBA are so predictable it's not worth watching til the conference finals

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I believe the odds makers had Washington in 2010 as a bigger favorite over Montreal than Tampa over Columbus this year.

 

[JohnnyBerts]

Not trying to be Nostradamus here, but in my playoff pool I waited until 5pm the day the playoffs started to find out what was the deal with Hedman, then I stayed away from that series when I found out he wasn't 100%. In today's NHL one player is a huge difference maker.

I understand Tampa set records but IMO they could have beat CBJ without Point and a 100% Hedman in the lineup. I don't know why more people don't talk about what a difference maker Hedman is. I also think Torts outcoached Cooper which I didn't expect but it happened.

 

[Cody Webster]

48% of NHLPA reps favor playoff change and most of those support going back to the old format. Hopefully something is done

 

[ellja3]

CAR-WSH is another one of those ''which team I hate less'' series. Ugh.

 

[FlyerFaithful17]

CAR-WSH is another one of those ''which team I hate less'' series. Ugh.

How does anyone hate the Canes as much as the Caps? And Brind’Amour winning always is awesome...

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Not trying to be Nostradamus here, but in my playoff pool I waited until 5pm the day the playoffs started to find out what was the deal with Hedman, then I stayed away from that series when I found out he wasn't 100%. In today's NHL one player is a huge difference maker.

I understand Tampa set records but IMO they could have beat CBJ without Point and a 100% Hedman in the lineup. I don't know why more people don't talk about what a difference maker Hedman is. I also think Torts outcoached Cooper which I didn't expect but it happened.

I'm totally on board with what you are saying about Hedman. Think about 7s when Couts went down in the Washington series.

Tampa still should have been able to put up a better fight with their depth but losing a top tier player or having them play at a reduced capacity can make a world of difference in a short sample size.

In general people dont talk enough about how important injuries or even wear and tear is to pmayoff teams.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

CAR-WSH is another one of those ''which team I hate less'' series. Ugh.

I can't decide whether or not I am jealous of people who had no experience of Dale Hunter. On the one hand, I would have escaped the horror of his career, but on the other I might have made the mistake of thinking "Meh, Washington isn't that bad."

 

[kudymen]

There was a short interview with Jake Voráček at sport.cz. I have been trying to find a suitable Voráček thread but the last one I found was (aside from the suspension one from 2019) from 2015. Therefore I will post it here - please move the post if it is not supposed to be in this thread. The interview was taken in Nitra (Slovakia) after Jake joined the Czech national team.

Q: You have decided not to join the national team last year. Did you have any second thoughts this year too?
A: I am always looking forward to the time I can spend in Czech jersey - but last year I was so burnt out after the long season, I just couldn't deal with it. I needed to rest and I know having a longer summer helped.

Q: Strong support in the stands in Bratislava is expected this year again - would you consider this motivation for you too?
A: I remember back in 2011 we have felt like playing home games. The environment was unbelievable. I believe the fans will be so strongly on our side this year again. I have gone through quite a lot since then, but is impossible to forget both the bronze from Bratislava and the gold from Cologne the year before. I would like to bring home any kind of medal again. We have been waiting for 7 years now, that's a lot.

Q: How did the Flyers management view missing the playoffs this year?
A: The expectations have obviously been way different and the disappointment was strong. We have been 16 points out of a playoff spot in December, therefore I would consider the later part of the season quite positively. Interim coach Gordon brought new life into our veins and he was rightfully respected by the players. We have made it as close as 3 points out of the playoff spot, we have won 13 out of 16 games despite big pressure, but then we have run out of energy and the Stanley cup is played without us as a result.

Q: Do you have any personal view on why you missed the playoffs?
A: There are a lot of ways how to look at it. We have been losing since the season started, even in games when we have been better [than the opponent]. We have also tried 8 different goalies, historic record. I feel like we are making history every season lately. Two years ago we have missed the playoffs despite winning 10 games in a row - last year we have made the playoffs despite losing 10 in a row. Now it's the goalies. I am wondering what happens next year...

Q: The season was quite difficult psychologically - did having a newborn make it at least a bit better?
A: I am not talking about this at all. After a lot of negative experience I decided to protect my privacy - and we are here for hockey after all...
(no idea what he's getting at?)

Q: You have recorded 24 goals and 40 assists this year, making it $66 tsd. going to your sister's MS charity. Did you mean to donate more?
A: We have decided to count the IIHF WC scoring too. She hasn't set ant specific goal for me. She knows well that if I am feeling fine, the points will arrive. But I am not going to Bratislava to record points only, we are here to reach a good result as a team.

Q: Did you rest well after the regular season?
A: I needed a bit of rest for my hips, my back. Last Wednesday was the last time I skated but I can't not play a game for a month or more. That's why I am glad I could join the team now in Slovakia and go on to play in a tournament in Brno. It's important to stay in game shape, just like getting to know what system does the national team play.

Q: What would you say, as a Kladno patriot, about Kladno finally advancing to Extraliga [top tier Czech league] this year?
A: It was an important step both for a lot of people and for our town too. Pleky [Plekanec] and Jarda Jágr helped a lot, especially Jágr can keep playing for many more years. He has replaced speed with hockey IQ, he is still strong, his shot is still great and he has also started playing with a longer stick, making his reach even further.



I like the quotes about Gordon getting respect. Not sure what he is getting at regarding his privacy but I am wondering if it culminated in deleting his Twitter account too. (big time reach/speculation from my side)

 

[Jtown]

There was a short interview with Jake Voráček at sport.cz. I have been trying to find a suitable Voráček thread but the last one I found was (aside from the suspension one from 2019) from 2015. Therefore I will post it here - please move the post if it is not supposed to be in this thread. The interview was taken in Nitra (Slovakia) after Jake joined the Czech national team.

Q: You have decided not to join the national team last year. Did you have any second thoughts this year too?
A: I am always looking forward to the time I can spend in Czech jersey - but last year I was so burnt out after the long season, I just couldn't deal with it. I needed to rest and I know having a longer summer helped.

Q: Strong support in the stands in Bratislava is expected this year again - would you consider this motivation for you too?
A: I remember back in 2011 we have felt like playing home games. The environment was unbelievable. I believe the fans will be so strongly on our side this year again. I have gone through quite a lot since then, but is impossible to forget both the bronze from Bratislava and the gold from Cologne the year before. I would like to bring home any kind of medal again. We have been waiting for 7 years now, that's a lot.

Q: How did the Flyers management view missing the playoffs this year?
A: The expectations have obviously been way different and the disappointment was strong. We have been 16 points out of a playoff spot in December, therefore I would consider the later part of the season quite positively. Interim coach Gordon brought new life into our veins and he was rightfully respected by the players. We have made it as close as 3 points out of the playoff spot, we have won 13 out of 16 games despite big pressure, but then we have run out of energy and the Stanley cup is played without us as a result.

Q: Do you have any personal view on why you missed the playoffs?
A: There are a lot of ways how to look at it. We have been losing since the season started, even in games when we have been better [than the opponent]. We have also tried 8 different goalies, historic record. I feel like we are making history every season lately. Two years ago we have missed the playoffs despite winning 10 games in a row - last year we have made the playoffs despite losing 10 in a row. Now it's the goalies. I am wondering what happens next year...

Q: The season was quite difficult psychologically - did having a newborn make it at least a bit better?
A: I am not talking about this at all. After a lot of negative experience I decided to protect my privacy - and we are here for hockey after all...
(no idea what he's getting at?)

Q: You have recorded 24 goals and 40 assists this year, making it $66 tsd. going to your sister's MS charity. Did you mean to donate more?
A: We have decided to count the IIHF WC scoring too. She hasn't set ant specific goal for me. She knows well that if I am feeling fine, the points will arrive. But I am not going to Bratislava to record points only, we are here to reach a good result as a team.

Q: Did you rest well after the regular season?
A: I needed a bit of rest for my hips, my back. Last Wednesday was the last time I skated but I can't not play a game for a month or more. That's why I am glad I could join the team now in Slovakia and go on to play in a tournament in Brno. It's important to stay in game shape, just like getting to know what system does the national team play.

Q: What would you say, as a Kladno patriot, about Kladno finally advancing to Extraliga [top tier Czech league] this year?
A: It was an important step both for a lot of people and for our town too. Pleky [Plekanec] and Jarda Jágr helped a lot, especially Jágr can keep playing for many more years. He has replaced speed with hockey IQ, he is still strong, his shot is still great and he has also started playing with a longer stick, making his reach even further.



I like the quotes about Gordon getting respect. Not sure what he is getting at regarding his privacy but I am wondering if it culminated in deleting his Twitter account too. (big time reach/speculation from my side)

Q: The season was quite difficult psychologically - did having a newborn make it at least a bit better?
A: I am not talking about this at all. After a lot of negative experience I decided to protect my privacy - and we are here for hockey after all...
(no idea what he's getting at?)

I think this is commentary on the negativity he received from benny and Deadhead. Those two monsters don't know what they are capable of.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

48% of NHLPA reps favor playoff change and most of those support going back to the old format. Hopefully something is done

Think I heard the current format will be in place for the 19/20 season

 

[Rebels57]

Think I heard the current format will be in place for the 19/20 season

Theyll probably wait for Seattle to join before changing format.

 

[BiggE]

I can't decide whether or not I am jealous of people who had no experience of Dale Hunter. On the one hand, I would have escaped the horror of his career, but on the other I might have made the mistake of thinking "Meh, Washington isn't that bad."

Dale Hunter should rot in hell, hopefully in the same room with Tomas Sandstrom and Marc Bureau.

 

[FlyerFaithful17]

I can't decide whether or not I am jealous of people who had no experience of Dale Hunter. On the one hand, I would have escaped the horror of his career, but on the other I might have made the mistake of thinking "Meh, Washington isn't that bad."

Seriously. Thanks for reminding me of him.