Miscellaneous NHL Discussion LX: Covid Cup II nears its finale

[CSKA1974]

 

[Rebels57]

Avs fans are currently debating if they should move on from Girard

 

[Rebels57]

Rewatching the Golden Knights goals and they sure did get lucky.

3 goals on point shots that deflected in or were just bad goaltending. Then Pietrangelo's goal was a perfect bounce off the back boards after a missed shot.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Rewatching the Golden Knights goals and they sure did get lucky.

3 goals on point shots that deflected in or were just bad goaltending. Then Pietrangelo's goal was a perfect bounce off the back boards after a missed shot.

And MAF went into savagemode

 

[wankstifier]

Hockey guys survive on playoffs hot takes

 

[GKJ]

Rask apparently needs surgery on his hip that’s going to keep him out for half of next year, which probably puts Halak back in their camp for next season.

 

[Stumble40]

Why is the conference finals Game one a 3:00 start?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

One other thing that we tend to lose sight of is what being a favorite in the NHL playoffs actually means.

Part II: Rethinking our playoff philosophy (on the role of chance in the postseason) | Statsbylopez

I know Michael Lopez isn't a name necessarily familiar to hockey fans, but he's a giant in the NFL world and is employed by the league in a high profile role.

Here's your TLDR if you prefer that approach to the subject:

 

[flyersnorth]

One other thing that we tend to lose sight of is what being a favorite in the NHL playoffs actually means.

Part II: Rethinking our playoff philosophy (on the role of chance in the postseason) | Statsbylopez

I know Michael Lopez isn't a name necessarily familiar to hockey fans, but he's a giant in the NFL world and is employed by the league in a high profile role.

Here's your TLDR if you prefer that approach to the subject:

Interesting to see MLB and NFL as more 'random' than the NHL.

That conflicts slightly with another comprehensive longitudinal study I read demonstrating that the NHL had the highest rate of randomness in outcomes.

Either way, it's absolutely right - it's highly random.

Also, to win the President's trophy, you've got to play some .700+ hockey over 82 games. Colorado won it with .732 this year (56 games), and in the previous full seasons, TB (.780) and Nashville (.713).

To win the Stanley Cup, you could do it playing .570 (16-12). During the season, .570 barely gets you a ticket to the playoffs.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Interesting to see MLB and NFL as more 'random' than the NHL.

That conflicts slightly with another comprehensive longitudinal study I read demonstrating that the NHL had the highest rate of randomness in outcomes.

Either way, it's absolutely right - it's highly random.

Also, to win the President's trophy, you've got to play some .700+ hockey over 82 games. Colorado won it with .732 this year (56 games), and in the previous full seasons, TB (.780) and Nashville (.713).

To win the Stanley Cup, you could do it playing .570 (16-12). During the season, .570 barely gets you a ticket to the playoffs.

The NFL doesn't surprise me at all because of the single game format, but MLB does surprise me a lot.

 

[Lindberg]

I'll question the idea that the NFL is more random than the NHL. Otherwise I doubt Tom Brady would of won 7 superbowls.

 

[Lindberg]

The NFL doesn't surprise me at all because of the single game format, but MLB does surprise me a lot.

I recently watched a few baseball games and it's surprising how much more the game changes when someone gets on base. Good sport to watch hungover.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I'll question the idea that the NFL is more random than the NHL. Otherwise I doubt Tom Brady would of won 7 superbowls.

I mean, Brady would have many fewer if NO, Indianapolis, and Green Bay were worth a damn at building teams around their QBs.

I'd also argue that Carroll did not get the most out of his rosters over the years either, it's silly they only had 1 SB.

The moral of the story is that building an NFL team is really hard even if you have an elite QB. It helps show how much of an outlier NE was. That Eli Manning has more SB rings than Wilson, Brees, and Rodgers is flat-out silly, and I think that points to a lot of the randomness. But chiefly it's the single game elimination that creates randomness.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Interesting to see MLB and NFL as more 'random' than the NHL.

That conflicts slightly with another comprehensive longitudinal study I read demonstrating that the NHL had the highest rate of randomness in outcomes.

Could you be referring to a study that answered a slightly different question, probably one about game-to-game results? It has the feel of one of those situations where nuance changes the answer significantly and everyone is actually correct.

In the Lopez example, he's only referring to playoff outcomes. This means that you're comparing Best-of-7 NHL series to single elimination NFL tournaments among other issues.

 

[DancingPanther]

One other thing that we tend to lose sight of is what being a favorite in the NHL playoffs actually means.

Part II: Rethinking our playoff philosophy (on the role of chance in the postseason) | Statsbylopez

I know Michael Lopez isn't a name necessarily familiar to hockey fans, but he's a giant in the NFL world and is employed by the league in a high profile role.

Here's your TLDR if you prefer that approach to the subject:

MLB leading the way here is super surprising, but hey- a hot pitcher or a hot lineup can get you places for sure.

I would have actually guessed the exact opposite order for that clump. NBA out in front not surprising

 

[deeshamrock]

Avs just need to run it back next year. They can easily win the Cup. Hasnt been mentioned much but Kadri being an idiot may have cost them their season. It was a blow to their C depth. Get him back and maybe add a dman and they're back in it.

They are the lead dog for Jones, and with the Bolts needing to shed mucho salary for thje CAP, there are center options there. COuld be depending on who the Preds protect in the expansion draft, there mighe be an option there. Given his bizarre behavior nhistory, I'd move on from Kadri.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

MLB leading the way here is super surprising, but hey- a hot pitcher or a hot lineup can get you places for sure.

The NFL doesn't surprise me at all because of the single game format, but MLB does surprise me a lot.

Umpire performance matters more than you might think. You can have games with ~85% ball/strike accuracy at the low end.

Here's Joe West this year for example.

 

[TCTC]

They are the lead dog for Jones, and with the Bolts needing to shed mucho salary for thje CAP, there are center options there. COuld be depending on who the Preds protect in the expansion draft, there mighe be an option there. Given his bizarre behavior nhistory, I'd move on from Kadri.

Jones would make a lot of sense for them. They need some size on the backend and Johnson always seems to be injured at this point. Would come full circle for Colorado and Jones too after everyone expected them to draft him in 2013.

I really hope we don't end up with empty hands and all the available players get traded/sign somewhere else this summer...

 

[TB87]

They are the lead dog for Jones, and with the Bolts needing to shed mucho salary for thje CAP, there are center options there. COuld be depending on who the Preds protect in the expansion draft, there mighe be an option there. Given his bizarre behavior nhistory, I'd move on from Kadri.

Sakic doesn’t come across as a GM who would sign off on bleeding assets on a player like Jones.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Umpire performance matters more than you might think. You can have games with ~85% ball/strike accuracy at the low end.

Here's Joe West this year for example.

This makes me angry

 

[deadhead]

Colorado is in "window wide open" world with high expectations, that's when teams overpay, see Islanders picking up Palmieri and Zajac.
So Jones would make sense if they have the right talent a year away and want to make another run next season.
Not sure they could afford to extend him, however.

 

[deeshamrock]

Jones would make a lot of sense for them. They need some size on the backend and Johnson always seems to be injured at this point. Would come full circle for Colorado and Jones too after everyone expected them to draft him in 2013.

I really hope we don't end up with empty hands and all the available players get traded/sign somewhere else this summer...

I think Fletcher is under pressure to get something done, in regards to upgrading the D and a lesser extent, the forwards. I just hope he doesn't overpay. THey have to move $$ out. With the CAP frozen fora few more years, and some of high contracts the Flyers have, it won't be easy. The top 4 D he is looking for, would be in the 6 to 8 M range, the foward, 5 to 7 perhaps. Too many teams in a position where they can't take on salary, esp in the 7 to 9M range with term. And he needs to move salary out this year with Couturier, Sanheim , Hart ,etc. coming up next year.

 

[landsbergfan]

MLB leading the way here is super surprising, but hey- a hot pitcher or a hot lineup can get you places for sure.

I would have actually guessed the exact opposite order for that clump. NBA out in front not surprising

Does it factor in best of 5 and the play in? I didnt read the full writeup yet

 

[DancingPanther]

Does it factor in best of 5 and the play in? I didnt read the full writeup yet

My understanding is they're just pooling the results of every playoff series in each sport and seeing if the better record won. Pretty straightforward.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Interesting to see MLB and NFL as more 'random' than the NHL.

That conflicts slightly with another comprehensive longitudinal study I read demonstrating that the NHL had the highest rate of randomness in outcomes.

Either way, it's absolutely right - it's highly random.

Also, to win the President's trophy, you've got to play some .700+ hockey over 82 games. Colorado won it with .732 this year (56 games), and in the previous full seasons, TB (.780) and Nashville (.713).

To win the Stanley Cup, you could do it playing .570 (16-12). During the season, .570 barely gets you a ticket to the playoffs.

NFL being more random is not especially surprising as it's one bad game and you're done. Vegas lost twice in a row to start the Avs series and still won. An NFL team doesn't get that chance.