Misc. NHL Talk 2017/18 Regular Season: Chapter 2

[Chinatown88]

 

[Tripod]

If Grubs plays well, you very well could see the Murray/Fleury scenario play out. Out with the older, in with the new.

 

[TCTC]

Has Grubauer been that good, or was Holtby so bad they needed to make a change?

 

[Lindberg]

Has Patrick ever played wing? Just spitballing here but lets say in fantasyland we sign Tavares. Could Patrick slide into either that top line RW spot or the second line LW spot?

And why would you do that? Patrick has all the tools to play center and should be playing center. Moving him to wing is just wasting a premium asset.

 

[Tripod]

Has Grubauer been that good, or was Holtby so bad they needed to make a change?

Both

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

And why would you do that? Patrick has all the tools to play center and should be playing center. Moving him to wing is just wasting a premium asset.

Well if we have Couturier and Tavares and Patrick is playing third line minutes isn't that also wasting a premium asset? He's not playing over Tavares any time soon and Couturier was outstanding this year so I would imagine he's not going to be playing over him for at least a few years unless he declines. So someone has to either get third line minutes or move to wing in this scenario. If Patrick can have the type of season Giroux had on the wing, I would prefer that over him being a third line center, even if he is "more valuable" as a center, it is not necessarily the case on the third line if he is going to have a bigger impact on the wing playing with let's say Voracek and Tavares or Giroux and Couturier.

 

[Lindberg]

Well if we have Couturier and Tavares and Patrick is playing third line minutes isn't that also wasting a premium asset? He's not playing over Tavares any time soon and Couturier was outstanding this year so I would imagine he's not going to be playing over him for at least a few years unless he declines. So someone has to either get third line minutes or move to wing in this scenario. If Patrick can have the type of season Giroux had on the wing, I would prefer that over him being a third line center, even if he is "more valuable" as a center, it is not necessarily the case on the third line if he is going to have a bigger impact on the wing playing with let's say Voracek and Tavares or Giroux and Couturier.

I'm not necessarily sure Tavares is that much better than Patrick. He's the 2nd overall pick and could have been 1st overall if not for injuries. Patrick needs to be put into the best position to succeed so hopefully you can squeeze every out of talent out of his RFA years. Tavares is a guy who has scored roughly 50 ES points more or less throughout his career and it wouldn't surprise me to see Patrick do that next year. Patrick is a bit of a mystery box as far as I'm concerned due to his lack of recovery time. He certainly turned it on during the latter part of this season. I'd much rather save the 10 million a year and use that money to spread the talent around on the roster.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I'm not necessarily sure Tavares is that much better than Patrick. He's the 2nd overall pick and could have been 1st overall if not for injuries. Patrick needs to be put into the best position to succeed so hopefully you can squeeze every out of talent out of his RFA years. Tavares is a guy who has scored roughly 50 ES points more or less throughout his career and it wouldn't surprise me to see Patrick do that next year. Patrick is a bit of a mystery box as far as I'm concerned due to his lack of recovery time. He certainly turned it on during the latter part of this season. I'd much rather save the 10 million a year and use that money to spread the talent around on the roster.

I stopped reading after that.

 

[Lindberg]

I stopped reading after that.

Meh. Aren't you the same guy who wanted to trade Ghost for Mantha?

Tavares has been in the league for quite some time now. I'm not necessarily sure he's quite the player you are making him out to be either. The Islanders haven't exactly been excelling with him not that I put that much blame there. I think he's a good player and a core player but you're investing a lot of money into what could be a marginal improvement. Pretending cap space isn't relevant is just living on fantasy island.

 

[Magua]

I'm actually sympathetic to fixing our goalie situation. We all know Hart is our projected future, and he is one of the most mature goalies in a long time, but creating a timetable for him is still hard. Could he end up spending 2 years in the AHL, and not just 1? Even 2 years at his age (doesn't turn 20 until August) would be a fast track. And then he still might need 1-2 seasons as a backup regardless, and he may not shine right away. Goalies take time. I'm all for prospects and patience -- and Carter Hart might very well have prodigious, mature talent that defies the odds -- but the Flyers can't sit on their hands for 2-4 years either because the team could be ready before Hart is. Being a difference making, top starting goalie is hard.

If Grubs plays well, you very well could see the Murray/Fleury scenario play out. Out with the older, in with the new.

Certainly true, especially with Samsonov in the wings. Capitals just churn goalies out. But Grubauer is turning 27 next year. He's no spring chicken. Holtby is only 2 years older, so I'm not sure age has anything to do with it. Just performance and salary and asset accumulating. And Holtby's track record speaks for itself, despite 1 bad year. It's certainly possible they keep both into next year to figure out their play. Grubauer could be moved as well. Either way, it seems likely to me either one won't come cheap and will have other bidders.

 

[sa cyred]

Wanted to post this since I found it interesting.

Link: Team Advanced Stats Finder | Hockey-Reference.com


What I find interesting the most is CAR. They were the 11th worst team in the NHL, yet had the highest CF% & FF%

 

[FlyerFaithful17]

Wanted to post this since I found it interesting.

View attachment 112353

Link: Team Advanced Stats Finder | Hockey-Reference.com


What I find interesting the most is CAR. They were the 11th worst team in the NHL, yet had the highest CF% & FF%

I've heard many analytic types acknowledge this abnormality this year, and admitted that there needs to be other stats like high danger chances that need to start being studied more. CF was almost meaningless in terms of team success this year.

 

[Magua]

What I find interesting the most is CAR. They were the 11th worst team in the NHL, yet had the highest CF% & FF%

Is it that interesting? They do it every season.

They still need some more game breaking talent, though who doesn't? They had a terrible PK this year, and their PP is always mediocre. Special teams hurt them. Goaltending kills them. If there's one thing they have set is a coach who knows how to scheme 5v5 and players who fit that scheme. They're the ultimate wait-and-see case study.

 

[baudib1]

Aho is a monster.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Meh. Aren't you the same guy who wanted to trade Ghost for Mantha?

Absolutely (although, if memory serves correctly it was not WE SHOULD TRADE GHOST FOR MANTHA it was I said that I would trade one of our big D prospects for him and that Ghost seemed like the most tradable or something along those lines). I'm not sure what that has to do with this though, but I guess I am probably the only person that ever said they would do a trade around here that wouldn't have been a good trade so you felt necessary to bring it up. I don't remember all of your posts but I can almost guarantee that you've either said something on here that would look silly now or you are a classic HFBoards poster that will never say anything definitive unless it is the 100% consensus of HFB so that someone can't bring it up later like this situation for you to feel like your point is stronger because two years ago I said something that wasn't true or was stupid or whatever.

Tavares has been in the league for quite some time now. I'm not necessarily sure he's quite the player you are making him out to be either. The Islanders haven't exactly been excelling with him not that I put that much blame there. I think he's a good player and a core player but you're investing a lot of money into what could be a marginal improvement. Pretending cap space isn't relevant is just living on fantasy island.

Tavares has played nearly 700 games and is at nearly a PPG during that time. I am psyched on Patrick as much as the next guy, but I am not sure that he will be as good as Tavares. I think he can be but that doesn't mean he will be. Tavares is top ten in the league in scoring over the past five seasons (goals and total points). Will Patrick be that guy? I hope so, but I certainly can't get behind this myth that Jon Tavares isn't that good. Also, if you read my posts, I am not pounding the drum saying we need to sign him or anything like that, I was simply posing a question that if we signed him (and I think I even called it fantasy land), could Patrick play wing.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Washington drafted Samsonov in the first round in 2015 & extending Holtby to a five year deal that summer. I think all along their plan was hopefully they found a replacement towards the end of that contract. Grubauer stepping up this year might have expedited that process & with two years left on Holtby’s current deal at $6.1M caphit they might be able to get a nice return. Samsonov’s KHL deal is up this spring/summer & I believe the plan all along was to bring him over anyway for next year. Perhaps they go with Grubauer & him as their goalies next year & move Holtby.

 

[Lindberg]

Tavares has played nearly 700 games and is at nearly a PPG during that time. I am psyched on Patrick as much as the next guy, but I am not sure that he will be as good as Tavares. I think he can be but that doesn't mean he will be. Tavares is top ten in the league in scoring over the past five seasons (goals and total points). Will Patrick be that guy? I hope so, but I certainly can't get behind this myth that Jon Tavares isn't that good. Also, if you read my posts, I am not pounding the drum saying we need to sign him or anything like that, I was simply posing a question that if we signed him (and I think I even called it fantasy land), could Patrick play wing.

I could easily see Patrick pot 30 points on the #1 PP. Likewise I can easily see Patrick putting up 40 - 50 ES points with the right combination of players. I'd wager he's going to start with Voracek and Lindblom on his wings as well. That would be roughly the production of what Tavares has produced season in and season out. Tavares is rightly going to want a 7 year contract if he leaves the Islanders. If you're not moving Couturier or Simmonds off the #1 PP Tavares just doesn't have that much value at ~8-10 million.

Patrick I'm sure could easily play the wing but that's a terrible waste of a cost controlled asset that should be essentially a top flight center.

I guess I just don't understand the point of contemplating a totally unrealistic scenario in which doesn't make any financial or logistical sense.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Tavares is a better player than Patrick & likely will be for a while. Now I don’t disagree with the argument that economically it would make more sense for the Flyers to pass on signing Tavares at his likely price tag/contract.

 

[FatTugboatFlahr]

Absolutely .

That’s a turd that you just can’t polish.

 

[Magua]

I could easily see Patrick pot 30 points on the #1 PP.

I'm not sure about easily. The entire PP runs through Giroux and Jake, and they usually get ~30-35 points.

Simmonds, the best net-front in the league in his tenure here, was usually ~25 points.

I would say 20-25 PP points is a good bet over a full-season. I know earlier today someone mentioned 50 ES points being also projectably attainable, which is top 30 production. I think 40 ES points is feasible, though he needs to get more non-5v5 time and Couturier-Giroux eat a lot of minutes. 60 points is the bar I'd set for next year with full PP1 time. Would've sounded absurd a handful of months ago, but here we are.

 

[sabremike]

I stopped reading after that.

John Tavares conned everyone into believing Matt Moulson was a good player worth millions *drops mic*

 

[Lindberg]

I'm not sure about easily. The entire PP runs through Giroux and Jake, and they usually get ~30-35 points.

Simmonds, the best net-front in the league in his tenure here, was usually ~25 points.

I would say 20-25 PP points is a good bet over a full-season. I know earlier today someone mentioned 50 ES points being also projectably attainable, which is top 30 production. I think 40 ES points is feasible, though he needs to get more non-5v5 time and Couturier-Giroux eat a lot of minutes. 60 points is the bar I'd set for next year with full PP1 time. Would've sounded absurd a handful of months ago, but here we are.

I'll definitely agree that easily was the wrong usage there. Still I think he could out produce Simmonds but I like Patrick's skill set significantly more than Simmonds even in Simmonds spot.

That was me as well saying I could see up to 50 ES points but more in the range of 40-50. Hakstol is going to have to put Patrick in that position to succeed though. Perhaps I'm overly bullish on Patrick but I really do like his skill set. He really sees the ice quite well.

My main point though was more that I just don't see the value per dollar that John Tavares would bring. You would have to essentially move quite a few things around to hopefully end up with the same production that he gives the Islanders now.

 

[Curufinwe]

How much value do we put on making Islanders fans go insane with rage and jealousy?

 

[Tripod]

With Couts and Patrick....then Frost in the way, it just makes no sense to dump 10+ million into a C on a long term contract.

Hell I would rather offer Thornton a big 1 year deal.

 

[deadhead]

Patrick next year may not be as good offensively as Tavares, but he'll probably not be that far behind (40ES, 25 PP points).
But he's a pretty good bet to be a better defensive player than Tavares.
Plus with Frost at most a year away, why would you even think about adding Tavares with that cap hit?