Globe and Mail: Mirtle: Leafs betting on improvement from within after quiet off-season

[The Winter Soldier]

Corey Schneider had a 1.97 GA average, and a .921 save %.

This is comparable to any Goalie on the Leafs?

It is not only silly to suggest it is so, it is also incorrect to do so.

 

[rdawg1234]

Corey Schneider had a 1.97 GA average, and a .921 save %.

This is comparable to any Goalie on the Leafs?

It is not only silly to suggest it is so, it is also incorrect to do so.

probably because NJD games have a total of 40 shots on goal from both sides.

literally NJD is the most boring team to play against, those were the only games where we had LESS than 30 shots on goal, and not because we played better, just because NJD is that BORING

 

[Kessley Snipes*]

Corey Schneider had a 1.97 GA average, and a .921 save %.

This is comparable to any Goalie on the Leafs?

It is not only silly to suggest it is so, it is also incorrect to do so.

The Devils were the best team in the league allowing a league low 25.5 Shots per game. the Leafs were a league worst allowing 35.9 shots per game.

Consider the effect of that on a goaltender and then consider the negligible difference in save percentage and then consider how Schneider's GAA would have held up had he faced 680 MORE sots (to equal Bernier).

Bernier had a better Save %, with a larger sample size, on the worst possession team in the league, who also gave up nearly the most shots against of all time.

 

[Leafspoison*]

That you are a good player in the AHL doesn't mean you are an asset in the big league. Brennan is basically a worse Franson without the size. In the AHL he is a star defenseman, in the NHL he is a liability.

Good player huh?

Liability huh?

Better scrap the entire league then, they are all liabilities.

The top point producing D man and player of the year is not just a "good" player. He is better than that and the islanders think so. I will take the opinions of execs in the NHL before I take the word of someone on these boards.

If we had signed him, everyone would be touting how great he is, but since he is gone, he must be crap right?

He is better than Franson, just smaller. But he is much faster than Franson too. See's the ice much better. If Franson was in the AHL all season, he would not have won top D man in the entire league there.

I think some of you are judging based on others opinions here and actually didn't see the guy play. The Marlies went as far as they did in part by Brennan.....and his stats back up what I am saying.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

probably because NJD games have a total of 40 shots on goal from both sides.

literally NJD is the most boring team to play against, those were the only games where we had LESS than 30 shots on goal, and not because we played better, just because NJD is that BORING

Your post illustrates my assertion, a good possession team with great goaltending, more center depth, superior defence is no guarantee for making the playoffs.

A poster claimed good possesion could mask off years by players, Devils scorers may have had off years, but they still missed the playoffs. As I said all along, it's the players not possession stats that determines a team's success.

I would say other than 2 players on the Leafs, The Devils had a deeper and more rounded team than we had.

Yet one team finished with 88 points, the other with 84. Good possession and bad possession team, the facts are there is no negligible difference.

 

[egd27]

Sample Size.

This team was heading towards disaster in 2012/2013, but luckily they ran out of regular season games and avoided what almost certainly would have been disaster.

Furthermore some players like Kadri were scoring at a ridiculous and unsustainable percentage that many of us knew would tail off in 2013/2014 and regress back to the mean...as it did.

This collapse was not hard to predict. Once the team stopped being bailed out by unrealistic goal tending numbers, the weaknesses apparent in 2012/2013 came back to haunt them.

They went 9-5-1 in their last 15 that season, but don't let the facts get in the way of a good argument, they were headed toward disaster.

 

[diceman934]

Wow take a look at how each team arrived at their season total points....leafs got lots of their points when the games were nolonger 5on5 games or even hockey games at all. If New Jersey had of scored 25 more goals last season they may have been a top seed.
New Jersey shoot out recorded 0-13. Toronto shootout recorded 9-4. Self explanatory as to the real affect of possession

Toronto OT record 14-8
New Jersey 9-18

 

[Purity*]

When you cannot argue the fact that Schneider and Brodeur were a better goaltending tandem than Bernier and Reimer,nor the fact the Devils Center depth was stronger.

Here is something else for you to ponder, David Clarkson was the 5th best possession player in the entire NHL for the 12-13 season, 5th. No T.Y.P.O. Was it the player that failed last season, or shall we blame it on old reliable, possession?

Because Clarkson played on a strong possession team in NJ, that's not too hard to understand.

It was obviously the player who failed last season, not exactly sure how we could blame it on "old reliable possession."


Whether you're aware of it or not, possession is one of this team's biggest issues. And Carlyle certainly doesn't help any of that. It's not that we couldn't win battles in the defensive zone last season, it's that for some ****ing reason despite having competent puck moving defensemen, we just couldn't get the puck out of the zone. How many times did you hear "cleared to the blueline but not out" last season?

I'm willing to bet NJ was a superior team to us all year long despite having less talent. Why? Their possession game/system they run is great, they spend way less than time us in their own d-zone and way more time in the offensive zone. They can even run that way when their best offensive player is grandpa Jagr.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Because Clarkson played on a strong possession team in NJ, that's not too hard to understand.

It was obviously the player who failed last season, not exactly sure how we could blame it on "old reliable possession."


Whether you're aware of it or not, possession is one of this team's biggest issues. And Carlyle certainly doesn't help any of that. It's not that we couldn't win battles in the defensive zone last season, it's that for some ****ing reason despite having competent puck moving defensemen, we just couldn't get the puck out of the zone. How many times did you hear "cleared to the blueline but not out" last season?

I'm willing to bet NJ was a superior team to us all year long despite having less talent. Why? Their possession game/system they run is great, they spend way less than time us in their own d-zone and way more time in the offensive zone. They can even run that way when their best offensive player is grandpa Jagr.

Leafs were the worst 5 on 5 possession team in 2012-13 season with basically the same team.

Injuries down the middle, bad 2nd line, off years, pourous defence? Same team, same possession. One made the playoffs, one did not. How did this happen?

Possession is just easier to blame, it's a lazy way of writing off what happened last year. Very convenient to package it up as say it was possession. There are a lot of factors, not just possession.

 

[Morbo]

Corey Schneider had a 1.97 GA average, and a .921 save %.

This is comparable to any Goalie on the Leafs?

It is not only silly to suggest it is so, it is also incorrect to do so.

You know GA is way more a team stat than save percentage right?

 

[EastVan]

The playing style of NJ is far superior to that of the leafs.

They play a winning brand of hockey and the leafs do not.

If NJ had more skill in their lineup they definitely would have made the playoffs.

 

[Menzinger]

Possession is just easier to blame, it's a lazy way of writing off what happened last year. Very convenient to package it up as say it was possession. There are a lot of factors, not just possession.

I don't think anybody would seriously argue that possession ALONE is the main contributor to the leaf's failure to make the playoffs. Possession is certainly one of the main reasons, but so was the inept coaching systems, and lack of talent (ie giving players like McClement 15+ minutes a game).

Wow take a look at how each team arrived at their season total points....leafs got lots of their points when the games were nolonger 5on5 games or even hockey games at all. If New Jersey had of scored 25 more goals last season they may have been a top seed.
New Jersey shoot out recorded 0-13. Toronto shootout recorded 9-4. Self explanatory as to the real affect of possession

Toronto OT record 14-8
New Jersey 9-18

Goes to show just how much the leafs overachieved, and the Devils underachieved.

 

[Pyromaniac3]

Leafs were the worst 5 on 5 possession team in 2012-13 season with basically the same team.

Injuries down the middle, bad 2nd line, off years, pourous defence? Same team, same possession. One made the playoffs, one did not. How did this happen?

Possession is just easier to blame, it's a lazy way of writing off what happened last year. Very convenient to package it up as say it was possession. There are a lot of factors, not just possession.

There are 3 factors that determine how the season goes.

1) Luck
2) Goalie
3) Possession

As a coach, you can only control possession. The others are completely out of your hands. As for the last 2 seasons, surely you could see that we lucked out in a lot of those games despite playing terrible hockey.

 

[Stephen]

The Devils were the best team in the league allowing a league low 25.5 Shots per game. the Leafs were a league worst allowing 35.9 shots per game.

Consider the effect of that on a goaltender and then consider the negligible difference in save percentage and then consider how Schneider's GAA would have held up had he faced 680 MORE sots (to equal Bernier).

Bernier had a better Save %, with a larger sample size, on the worst possession team in the league, who also gave up nearly the most shots against of all time.

Save percentage will also be inflated on a team that gives up a ton of shots because they will contain a lot of low percentage scoring opportunities too.

 

[Mess]

Save percentage will also be inflated on a team that gives up a ton of shots because they will contain a lot of low percentage scoring opportunities too.

If a goalie lets in 3 goals on 40 shots he is still posting a .925 sv% unfortunately that is still a 3.00 GAA and your team needs 4 goals to win.

Leafs routinely gave up 40 shots a game heck they had a season ending 36 shot average/82 games.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

It's amazing how quickly this discussion was derailed into having basically nothing to do with the original article.

 

[Purity*]

Leafs were the worst 5 on 5 possession team in 2012-13 season with basically the same team.

Injuries down the middle, bad 2nd line, off years, pourous defence? Same team, same possession. One made the playoffs, one did not. How did this happen?

Possession is just easier to blame, it's a lazy way of writing off what happened last year. Very convenient to package it up as say it was possession. There are a lot of factors, not just possession.

What in your opinion is the leading factor of why we missed playoffs?

Possession isn't the sole reason we missed playoffs, it is however, the leading cause of it. I'm willing to bet we wouldn't have made playoffs in 2012-13 if it was a full season. We didn't set the NHL record in shots against just because we are a bad defensive team, our putrid system was a huge reason for that.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

The one that sticks in my craw is the mishandling of TJ Brennan. D man of the year and leafs never gave the guy a second thought.

Shows the level of competence of the management team.

Nonis just has to go and Shanny with him if this guy thinks this roster is going to make the playoffs.

Oh well, Macdavid....here we come.

Wait, you're upset over losing Brennan? have you ever seen him play? didn't think so. Travis Morin,Zach Boychuk,Andy Miele,Tj Brennan...these are the players leading the league in scoring. All career AHLers.

 

[Leafspoison*]

Wait, you're upset over losing Brennan? have you ever seen him play? didn't think so. Travis Morin,Zach Boychuk,Andy Miele,Tj Brennan...these are the players leading the league in scoring. All career AHLers.

Well Pig, you didn't give me a chance to answer. Yes, I have seen him play a ton.

I don't buy into all this crap posted there that when a player leaves he must suck. Have you ever seen him play?

 

[GalacticaActual]

One guarantee: that help from within will not come from Tyler Biggs.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

The point is that under Shanahan the Leafs seem to have taken two important turns. Firstly, bottom six players like Ashton, Holland, Santorelli, Komarov etc are getting bottom six money. Second, young players are getting a chance. What's the point in drafting and developing players if you plan on filling every position with Free Agents every single year? A farm team is only good if you can actually use it.