News Article: Mirtle: It’s time to ask some tough questions about these Maple Leafs

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
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2015 Phaneuf was better than 2019 Hainsey. rielly is better today. Gardiner is a wash. Hunwick 2015 was no worse than Zaitsev and 2015 polak was better than todays 3rd pair. Not much difference in opening night roster IMO.

The other teams

PIT 33.4 After Letang they get thin esp with injuries to Shultz and maata. Not a fan of Johnson
ANA 33.4 Brutal team this year. some nice pieces on d but lost a lot of depth in Theodore to vegas, Montour to buffalo, vatanen to NJ. Not as deep as they used to be
WPG 33.3 Decimated by injury- only Trouba has played every game- have used 12 D this year. Depth drops off quick with injury to buff and Morrissey,
TOR 33.3 I think I made my thoughts clear on this one Nothing after Reilly/gardiner muzzin
PHI 32.3 Very young D will improve. Ghost is their Gardiner. giving up too many shots today but they are real young. Like hagg and sanheim. Provorov will be good. More potential than anyone on this list
TBL 32.0 They give up too many shots overall but play a lot with the lead- to be expected in part. hedman mcdonough are studs. Cernak going to be real good. sergechev is brutal in his end. Stallman/coburn Girardi are approaching their best before dates. best D of the teams listed here. Only thing keeping them out of the finals this year IMO would be an injury in net or to Hedman or mcdonough
WSH 31.9 meh not the caps strength. average d core. one star Carlson. Niskanen is underrated puck mover. other pieces complement them Whole is probably better than sum of its parts.

Overall of those teams Tampa is best today. Philly has the best young pieces, jets injuries have hurt but not much depth even when healthy. Pens are getting old quickly and probably decline first.

so what you're saying is that.....personnel doesn't have much to do with it?
 

RLF

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May 5, 2014
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It does create more cap space, unless the % increases you're talking about for individual players account for the entirety of the growth of the team's cap as a whole, which they most likely will not (for example, in your scenario, Rielly earns only an extra $2.325M of the cap's overall growth of $16.5M between now and then).
As long as the contracts we already have remain at their current AAV (rather than adjusting their AAV to account for the increase in salary cap) and additional contracts continue to be shed (Marleau's $6.25M, for example), the rising cap creates legitimate cap space.

I meant per players signed in the future. I think I said it helps the ones already signed. Even at 90M though, Matthews is still at 12.9% of the cap, which is still higher than the cap hit %'s most winning teams handed their stars.
For instance, Rielly's cap hit % in 3 years will only be about 5% of the cap if it is at $93M by then. The next year it could more than double per cap% if hr gets 10.79%. All of a sudden you got one guy making almost 11% and have to account for that. Anderson, Rielly, Dermott, Kadri, Muzzin, Hyman, Kapanen, Johnsson, Gauthier and whoever you promote (Sandin, Liligren, Bracco, etc) will all need contracts in the next 4 years. Guess what, right after that -Matthews, Nylander, Tavares and possibly Marner all due in a two year period.

Yes, it will be better with Marleau off the books. There is not doubt, but it may be short lived as it doesn't mean we will have tons of extra cap room going forward. It doesn't mean we will be able to keep everyone.
 
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CDN24

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Jun 17, 2009
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so what you're saying is that.....personnel doesn't have much to do with it?

What?? that's what you get out of that. personnel makes a big difference.

If you referring to 2015-16 Leafs vs 2018-19 Opening day then the best 2 d-men are the same guys Reilly and gardiner Then its phaneuf vs hainsey.

If you are talking about the comparative teams in terms of shots against- i gave you my thoughts on them, what are yours?
 

IBeL34f

Lilly-grin
Jun 3, 2010
8,226
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Toronto
I meant per players signed in the future. I think I said it helps the ones already signed. Even at 90M though, Matthews is still at 12.9% of the cap, which is still higher than the cap hit %'s most winning teams handed their stars.
For instance, Rielly's cap hit % in 3 years will only be about 5% of the cap if it is at $93M by then. The next year it could more than double per cap% if hr gets 10.79%. All of a sudden you got one guy making almost 11% and have to account for that. Anderson, Rielly, Dermott, Kadri, Muzzin, Hyman, Kapanen, Johnsson, Gauthier and whoever you promote (Sandin, Liligren, Bracco, etc) will all need contracts in the next 4 years. Guess what, right after that -Matthews, Nylander, Tavares and possibly Marner all due in a two year period.

Yes, it will be better with Marleau off the books. There is not doubt, but it may be short lived as it doesn't mean we will have tons of extra cap room going forward. It doesn't mean we will be able to keep everyone.
We're currently in an excellent cap position beyond 2019/20, I'll leave it at that.
It doesn't mean we'll keep everybody but that was never the case anyway.
 
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zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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What?? that's what you get out of that. personnel makes a big difference.

If you referring to 2015-16 Leafs vs 2018-19 Opening day then the best 2 d-men are the same guys Reilly and gardiner Then its phaneuf vs hainsey.

If you are talking about the comparative teams in terms of shots against- i gave you my thoughts on them, what are yours?

seems to me you just talked a whole lot about how all those teams have very different quality of personnel....yet all have similar shots against?
 

ITM

As Long As It Takes
Jan 26, 2012
4,536
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It is 5th. Ice time per game average shows who is being played the most. Still 5th is high for him.
Just for record's sake (and maybe I'm reading this incorrectly), isn't Marleau 6th?

TOI/GP:
  1. Marner 19:39
  2. Tavares 19:03
  3. Matthews 18:24
  4. Hyman 17:17
  5. Kapanen 16:34
  6. Marleau 16:31
 

moon111

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Oct 18, 2014
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I see Babcock as someone who's been given a team with an abundance of one element and is sorely missing another. Many Leafs simply don't know that you can win by patiently waiting without taking chances and staying on the right side of the puck. Fans don't see the value that Connor Brown plays nothing for nobody hockey until there's a play to be made. He's currently 7th on the team for 1st assists. This is exactly how Brown should be playing with his skillset and his +12 represents this. The problem is, some Leafs with more talent are not willing to drop down to this level when needed. They're impatient, they force the play and simply the opposition scores more on the ice then they do. It might work good at the beginning of the season, but as teams systems get tighter and tighter and the playoffs come, they're going to get ruined. Again. In last year's playoffs, Bozak, Kadri, and Connor Brown (who was only 2nd to Hyman for forwards penalty-killing minutes) combined for the same amount of goals against as Nylander. Fans are upset with Babcock likes players that slowly go some where over those who spin their tires. They need to learn to respect the conditions they're in and only apply as much power as the current traction will allow them to go forward.
 

tmlms13

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
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Waterloo, Ontario
PM Cap Hit won't head to the island if he's LTIR'd or retires. It's a 35+

He will need to waive his No Move to go to a team that will LTIR him that doesn't care about the cap hit (Arizona)

They will probably need to add an asset to get another team to take it. PM+4th for a 6th
 

RLF

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May 5, 2014
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We're currently in an excellent cap position beyond 2019/20, I'll leave it at that.
It doesn't mean we'll keep everybody but that was never the case anyway.

No worries.:) Being in an excellent cap position can mean something different to everyone.
Excellent to me is having the space to keep your young prospects as they grow and having cap room to add if needed. That would be excellent.
I'm not saying it is going to be cap hell after 19/20, I would say it may be manageable. But that doesn't mean tough decisions are not going to have to be made in order to manage it and we may lose some good pieces. So, I wouldn't call that scenario excellent as you do. But that's just my opinion.
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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regardless of whether Babcock should stay or go, the statement above says way more about the players on the Leafs than it does the coach. I think Babcock is (dare I say it) a "elite" coach, is he the right coach for this team? Probably not. Big disconnect between the GM and coach imo, so boy wonder should bring in Keefe and see if he can do better. I just hate to see the Leafs let a great coach go because the GM/coach can't help each other achieve a common goal.

Successful programs follow a top down hierarchy, where the GM develop a strategy and everything else falls in line. If a coach and GM can’t get on the same page, one will eventually need to go, and it would be dysfunctional and backwards thinking imo to let the coach run the entire organization, it would run counter to the very structure of how most teams operate.
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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Shanny get your head out of your rear end and put an end to this nonsense. Letting go of Lou because he was not in favour of sending Babs to speak to the Mathews this summer was a huge mistake. You effectively created this mess and it needs to be fixed. Babs was neutered in the eyes of the players and we are not getting Buy in. No surprise at all

You don’t have a single shred of proof that The Matthews meeting was why Lou was pushed out of the organization.

Not a single shred.
 

CDN24

Registered User
Jun 17, 2009
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seems to me you just talked a whole lot about how all those teams have very different quality of personnel....yet all have similar shots against?
More than one way to skin a cat I guess

Obviously they have similar shots against as you listed teams with shots against similar to the leafs. my analysis commented on what I thought of each defense. You didn't bother providing your analysis.

maybe we can look at goals against for those teams

PIT 33.4 2.99 GAA 15th 218 total goals against GF/game 3.40 5th
ANA 33.4 3.04 GAA 18th 225 total goals against GF/game 2.30 last
WPG 33.3 2.94 GAA 13th 212 total goals against GF/game 3.39 6th
TOR 33.3 3.00 GAA 16th 216 total goals against GF/game 3.60 2nd
PHI 32.3 3.33 GAA 27th 240 total goals against GF/game 3.06 12th
TBL 32.0 2.60 GAA 4th 190 total goals against GF/game 3.85 1st
WSH 31.9 3.11 GAA 21st 224 total goals against GF/game 3.39 7th

Pens /Ducks/Jets/leafs all give up about 33.3 shots per game, all are middle of the pack in GAA 13th to 18th. 3 of the 4 score their way out of trouble (2nd to 6th in goals for and the ducks could not score in the proverbial house of ill repute with someone elses money. Have to think playing all those games from behind hurts them defensively too as thy have no choice but open things up

Again caps offense is all that is keeping them in games.

Tampa looks to be in a league of their own- 4th best team defense and best offense by a lot. They could forfeit their remaining games and still be no 1 overall (they clinched) and only 3 teams have scored at a statistical pace to outscorethem for the year (flames /leafs /sharks)
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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To add. Lou was not a GM of a win now team and that all changed whe we signed JT. I have no doubt that we would have had a rightshot D man in our top 4 right now if he was still the GM along with some more physical players.

This post is absolute nonsense. After his first season, Lou not only refused to trade UFAs for futures, he consistently traded futures for vets at the TDL. At free agency he consistently turned to vets to fill out the roster. That’s the very definition of “win now” behaviour. Like a textbook perfect one.

As for the claim that Lou would have made this right handed D magically appear is also nonsense. He had three years to improve the D and his solutions were Hainsey and Zaitsev....


Edit: typo
 
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ShaneFalco

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Jul 15, 2012
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London, On
This post is absolute nonsense. After his first season, Lou not only refused to trade UFAs for futures, he consistently traded futures for vets at the TDL. At free agency he consistently turned to vets to fill out the roster. That’s the very definition of “win now” behaviour. Like a textbook perfect one.

As for the claim that Lou would have made this right handed D magically appear isbalsi nonsense. He had three years to improve the D and his solutions were Hainsey and Zaitsev....

And Polak :)
Komarov for 4 years
If only Lou were here

proof/facts to dice = his opinion
 

Duke Silver

Truce?
Jun 4, 2008
8,610
1,942
Toronto/St. John's
This post is absolute nonsense. After his first season, Lou not only refused to trade UFAs for futures, he consistently traded futures for vets at the TDL. At free agency he consistently turned to vets to fill out the roster. That’s the very definition of “win now” behaviour. Like a textbook perfect one.

As for the claim that Lou would have made this right handed D magically appear isbalsi nonsense. He had three years to improve the D and his solutions were Hainsey and Zaitsev....

Plus Lou's idea of fixing our right side was giving a guy with less than 100 NHL games a 7-year deal. And now we're going to have to give up a good asset to get rid of that player.
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
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St. Paul, MN
Are you happy with the Athletic? Was thinking of checking it out

If you like long form journalism more than hot take click bait stuff you’ll like it. A lot of the articles can also be stats centric (but not all)

I’d wager most of its critics in this thread have never read more than a single article
 
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KuleminFan41

Registered User
Jan 5, 2009
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That is the argument I’m making. Look no further than Montreal; where would they be without Price? Similar to the Leafs they have flaws that are masked by brilliant goaltending.
Tampa gets great goaltending too and it has probably contributed to an extra 10 points in the standings. However, they don’t have nearly the flaws the Leafs and Canadiens have.
Sure, but I think things get overblown with the "goalie is too good" argument. It's a bit unfair because It seems to downplay how good a team actually is. There are plenty of games where a teams goalie doesn't perform well and the offense has to bail out the goalie, but those games aren't nearly talked about as often. The Leafs have the luxury of having such offensive depth that they can bail out Freddy or Sparks if they don't have the best performance on a given night. Tampa is one of the few teams out there that has good depth offensively and defensively, while the Leafs are thin on defence. Right now they're showing they have no depth outside of their top 3-4 guys , which is clearly why they're struggling right now. I don't think there's a coach out there(regardless of how good he is) that can turn a D-Core consisting of Zaitsev, Marincin, Holl and Ozhiganov into a good enough one. Should Babcock get some blame for maybe not playing up to their strengths? Sure, but at some point you have to recognize that some guys aren't NHL'ers and I'm not sure which one those 4 are
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
40,973
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St. Paul, MN
Plus Lou's idea of fixing our right side was giving a guy with less than 100 NHL games a 7-year deal. And now we're going to have to give up a good asset to get rid of that player.

It drives me crazy: people create these absurd hypotheticals where apparently Lou would only make these amazing moves and never, ever overpay for a player (although of course he signed the three worst contracts on the team in Marleau, Zaitsev and Brown) when we literally had three full years to understand his vision for the team, he isn’t this mystery box.

My favourite is that some actually like the idea a three million dollar Komarov signed long term to play on the 4th line :help:
 

usernamezrhardtodo

Registered User
Mar 26, 2014
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The two paragraphs I bolded sum it up succinctly. Why aren't they finishing their checks? Why the flybys? Is it coaching or lack of will?

If it's coaching Babcock needs to change the system. If it's lack of will Babcock needs to correct that lack of will by whatever means necessary up to and including benching or using the press box to make his point.

It's not lack of will...it just isn't. They are being TOLD to do that. Babs keeps referencing one of the top 5 defensemen to ever play the game (Lidstrom) when he says you can angle your guy off the puck and use your stick effectively without hitting. He absolutely loves Gardiner and the way he plays. He has said many times that finishing your check puts the hitter out of the play for a short time instead of being on his horse getting back to the D-zone. He is such a control freak from everything I have read about him that it is next to impossible to believe they are not just following orders.

He thinks that this system is a High puck pressure system. I don't agree with that since the pressure we apply seems to do little for other teams to skate out of their zone with the puck. I cannot stress this enough...he is telling them to do this stuff, they would be benched if they didn't and you would get MOAR Connor Brown to show them how it's done. :(
 

Nithoniniel

Registered User
Sep 7, 2012
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Skövde, Sweden
Ok I hate replying to post when people quote more then one person. It is a great tactic to distract from the real issues.
It's what you do when you don't want to clutter the whole page with your own posts. But I'll try to avoid doing that with you in the future, no problem.

As for your comparison I ignore it as it was baseless.
Based on what? The guy spent two full series with two points. He was accused by his own fanbase for exactly your issues with Nylander. He then improved and became a Conn Smythe candidate. How is it baseless?

With soft players like Buff, Ladd , Seabrook, Brouwer, Shaw , Bicknell etc right. Those are the facts my friend. Teams who possess the puck a lot are not needing to hit to get it back. We do not have one of these players and you think they were soft when they won the cup.
I didn't talk about them being soft. I said that they don't hit a lot. You then mocked me for claiming that they don't hit a lot, with this exact quote: "Chicago did not win without hitting my god you can not be serious."¨

At no point in this conversation did we talk about something else than hitting. You're just backpedaling after I produced stats that corroborated what I said.
 
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