Minnesota Wild General Discussion XVI

[AKL]

Because it's really just people on the outside doing math. Not really under Guerin's control, unless he wanted to publicly disavow us from being in the Eichel conversation anymore.

Right, so it's all speculation, but if we end up losing Fiala due to Guerin's actions, it's another L. That's all I said.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Right, so it's all speculation, but if we end up losing Fiala due to Guerin's actions, it's another L. That's all I said.

Maybe I read too much into "alienated" or something.

If it's Guerin that's holding up a long-term deal, then I have bone to pick with him (depending on cost, of course).

If it's Fiala that now has cold feet because of the Eichel rumors, then I'm not sure what would be done to avoid it.

If Russo is right, and we're only offering him 4 x $5.5M then I'd be pretty miffed if I was Fiala. That's at least a million too light each year.

 

[AKL]

Maybe I read too much into "alienated" or something.

If it's Guerin that's holding up a long-term deal, then I have bone to pick with him (depending on cost, of course).

If it's Fiala that now has cold feet because of the Eichel rumors, then I'm not sure what would be done to avoid it.

If Russo is right, and we're only offering him 4 x $5.5M then I'd be pretty miffed if I was Fiala. That's at least a million too light each year.

Part of my point was that, whether it's Eichel or someone else (Fiala was speculated to be shopped for a center last summer too), if you're convinced that your GM doesn't want you long term (which we've heard to be the case with Guerin/Fiala), then you're not going to sign long term and end up playing somewhere you don't want to be (Buffalo). And the reason Fiala would have the cold feet would be because of Guerin's rumored actions. So either way, it comes back to Guerin more or less burning a bridge, and that would be an L. Again, this is all just speculation at this point though.

If Fiala just simply wants to be a free agent under any circumstances, or doesn't want to play in Minnesota because he doesn't like the team/location, then that's obviously not on Guerin. But it doesn't really sound like that's what's happening here.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Part of my point was that, whether it's Eichel or someone else (Fiala was speculated to be shopped for a center last summer too), if you're convinced that your GM doesn't want you long term (which we've heard to be the case with Guerin/Fiala), then you're not going to sign long term and end up playing somewhere you don't want to be (Buffalo). And the reason Fiala would have the cold feet would be because of Guerin's rumored actions. So either way, it comes back to Guerin more or less burning a bridge, and that would be an L.

If Fiala just simply wants to be a free agent under any circumstances, or doesn't want to play in Minnesota because he doesn't like the team/location, then that's obviously not on Guerin. But it doesn't really sound like that's what's happening here.

So what's the best course of action to battle against speculation and rumored actions, without slamming the door on obtaining a 23 year old top 5 center?

Maybe there's a 3rd door that I'm not seeing.

 

[MNNumbers]

Maybe I read too much into "alienated" or something.

If it's Guerin that's holding up a long-term deal, then I have bone to pick with him (depending on cost, of course).

If it's Fiala that now has cold feet because of the Eichel rumors, then I'm not sure what would be done to avoid it.

If Russo is right, and we're only offering him 4 x $5.5M then I'd be pretty miffed if I was Fiala. That's at least a million too light each year.

That's the offer? 4*5.5?

I'd be miffed, too. JEE got 5.2. Are his advanced stats that much better?

 

[Bazeek]

Part of my point was that, whether it's Eichel or someone else (Fiala was speculated to be shopped for a center last summer too), if you're convinced that your GM doesn't want you long term (which we've heard to be the case with Guerin/Fiala), then you're not going to sign long term and end up playing somewhere you don't want to be (Buffalo). And the reason Fiala would have the cold feet would be because of Guerin's rumored actions. So either way, it comes back to Guerin more or less burning a bridge, and that would be an L.

I think a lot still depends on what Fiala's actually asking for. Obviously they'll have started high with the intention to negotiate down from there, but if his agent has been opening with $9m for 8 years or something crazy then I'll forgive Guerin for being a little hard-nosed about this.

That said, I don't get the need to have him signed my training camp unless it's just the principle of the thing. At best the roster's been treading water versus where we were at last season, so why get squeamish about an extended contract squabble? Because we're throwing away a year of prime Goligoski?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

That's the offer? 4*5.5?

I'd be miffed, too. JEE got 5.2. Are his advanced stats that much better?

It was his guess.

 

[Webster]

Can you explain why players don't want to stay here? Kaprizov obviously don't want to be a long term Wild, and now Fiala.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Can you explain why players don't want to stay here? Kaprizov obviously don't want to be a long term Wild, and now Fiala.

Not sure. Ask your guy why he signed up for 5.

And this isn't concretely the case for either of them.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Can you explain why players don't want to stay here? Kaprizov obviously don't want to be a long term Wild, and now Fiala.

Fiala originally asked for an 8 year term…

 

[AKL]

So what's the best course of action to battle against speculation and rumored actions, without slamming the door on obtaining a 23 year old top 5 center?

Maybe there's a 3rd door that I'm not seeing.

I'm not sure that there is one. I mean, these players know it's a business, they know they could be traded at any time. I think when you actually hear the speculation about yourself though, it makes it more real. I wouldn't want to play in Buffalo, so I can't blame Fiala for using whatever leverage he has to prevent that from happening. Like I said, I think if Eichel was traded tomorrow, Fiala would be much more amenable to a longer deal.

But I also think this situation goes a little beyond just Eichel. Like I said, Fiala's name came up last summer too, and he had a hard negotiation with him two years ago. If Fiala getst he impression that Guerin doesn't want him here long term, then that's what I meant by alienating him, estranging him from the organization. And I can't blame him, because that's the impression I get about the situation.

 

[AKL]

I think a lot still depends on what Fiala's actually asking for. Obviously they'll have started high with the intention to negotiate down from there, but if his agent has been opening with $9m for 8 years or something crazy then I'll forgive Guerin for being a little hard-nosed about this.

That said, I don't get the need to have him signed my training camp unless it's just the principle of the thing. At best the roster's been treading water versus where we were at last season, so why get squeamish about an extended contract squabble? Because we're throwing away a year of prime Goligoski?

Sure, there's a lot we don't know. I'm just going off the information I've heard, though it could be completely wrong.

I have no idea why the team elected for arbitration. Maybe they genuinely can't see eye to eye and want another year to gauge? Maybe they want to be able to trade him while he has one year left but can negotiate a new contract with the acquiring team next summer?

 

[Wasted Talent]

I fully understand why Fiala might be frustrated. He signed a 2 year "prove it" deal, delivered but isn't getting rewarded.

Meanwhile Kaprizov gets handed the key to the city after one season.

 

[Bazeek]

I fully understand why Fiala might be frustrated. He signed a 2 year "prove it" deal, delivered but isn't getting rewarded.

Meanwhile Kaprizov gets handed the key to the city after one season.

Even from the outside the difference in management's attitude toward the two is bizarre.

 

[MNNumbers]

I fully understand why Fiala might be frustrated. He signed a 2 year "prove it" deal, delivered but isn't getting rewarded.

Meanwhile Kaprizov gets handed the key to the city after one season.

Kaprisov hasn't been handed the key to anything as far as I know.

And, this kind of frustrates me. So far we THINK we know this:
Guerin (and Leipold?) didn't like the feel of the locker room, so they decided that Suter would be bought out. (Parise I don't think any of us have a problem with.) Since Suter was bought out, in 22-23 you effectively are working under a cap situation in which, even if he would only have been playing entry level hockey, you have to be able to sign a replacement for 1.2M in order to break even on cap. Obviously, the reported 'gentlemen's agreement' with Goligolski for a ~2M contract next year doesn't fit this bill, so you have committed yourself to being cap-strapped. In 23-24 and 24-25 it's even worse - 1M worse.
That cap situation means that you have to play hardball with your players. So, 2 of the 5 best skilled players this franchise has ever known (Kaprisov and Fiala), one of whom you got on a great steal of a trade, are not going to be here long term, because you have to play hardball with their contracts.

As a result, the fans are going to be hoping that Rossi, Boldy, and a handful of other guys coming through the pipeline now, hit big. And, the odds are against that.

Now, Guerin and Leipold SHOULD be able to do math, so they should know this was coming. And, they basically have committed themselves to a rebuild, not re-tool, because Kap and Fiala are gone by the time Suter and Parise's contracts come off the books.

In my mind, this is a big MISS. And, the only reason I can see for it is that it saves Leipold 20M. Otherwise, it's a big price to pay for the privilege of exerting Your Own Will on the players (by Guerin), and deciding that you only want good guys who want to be here - even if you lose your skilled players.

 

[AKL]

Kaprisov hasn't been handed the key to anything as far as I know.

It's an expression. Kaprizov has one good season and he's being made the face of the franchise, the untouchable guy, offered over $70M. Fiala has been carrying this offense for two years playing with traffic cones, and Guerin wants to give him less than half of that? It's a massive slap in the face to Fiala.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I’m really hoping all of these moves start to make sense. I really don’t know what Guerin is thinking on 80% of these moves. It’s been a pretty demoralizing off-season.

 

[57special]

Fiala has never played for the Penguins, or even one of their farm clubs, so how good can he be?

 

[AKL]

I’m really hoping all of these moves start to make sense. I really don’t know what Guerin is thinking on 80% of these moves. It’s been a pretty demoralizing off-season.

On the bright side, starting in a couple months, we actually get to start holding Guerin accountable for his lack of actions.

 

[57special]

I’m really hoping all of these moves start to make sense. I really don’t know what Guerin is thinking on 80% of these moves. It’s been a pretty demoralizing off-season.

I had Fenton pegged as an arrogant jerk from day one, but I am still on the fence about Guerin. I am hoping that he knows what he is doing, and is a move ahead of all of us.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

On the bright side, starting in a couple months, we actually get to start holding Guerin accountable for his lack of actions.

I’ll be interested to see if he’s on the hot seat next year should things go south.

 

[AKL]

I’ll be interested to see if he’s on the hot seat next year should things go south.

Define "south". He just convinced Leipold to buy out Suter and Parise, and deal with those dead cap hits, so unless he botches some Kaprizov and Fiala trades, or gets himself into some kind of scandal a la the Blackhawks, I don't see how he doesn't get at least five more seasons before he's on the hot seat.

 

[MNNumbers]

Define "south". He just convinced Leipold to buy out Suter and Parise, and deal with those dead cap hits, so unless he botches some Kaprizov and Fiala trades, or gets himself into some kind of scandal a la the Blackhawks, I don't see how he doesn't get at least five more seasons before he's on the hot seat.

And, remember, those buyouts, considering the players' cap hits, saved Leipold $40M.

 

[2Pair]

Where is the "Fiala doesn't want to sign long term" coming from? Everything that I've read says the exact opposite

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Define "south". He just convinced Leipold to buy out Suter and Parise, and deal with those dead cap hits, so unless he botches some Kaprizov and Fiala trades, or gets himself into some kind of scandal a la the Blackhawks, I don't see how he doesn't get at least five more seasons before he's on the hot seat.

Fair point