Minnesota Wild General Discussion XV

[57special]

GREEF line, huh? Like 'grief', which is what they give their opponents. Much improved!

Would love to take credit, but read it somewhere else.

 

[TaLoN]

Okay — what the actual f*** is happening? How is this happening?

I have't been able to watch all season long because of TV providers and/or not being able to watch when they're on natty TV. I highlight watch.

How? How is this even happening? How are we 4 pts back of 1st and top 10 in the league?

Because of the schedule... playing in one of the worst divisions overall in the league, and those are the only teams we face... on top of literally owning one of the actual good teams in the division.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Poor Parise, he only gets 7-8 minutes a game these days. Im pretty sure he's pissed.
And people want him to waive for the expansion draft?

Looking at the cap for the next couple of years, this offseason is the time to get a handshake agreement from Parise that he will LTIR retire after next season. If Guerin cannot get that from Parise, there is option to buy him out to save $5.16m next year and $1.16m in cap in 22/23. There would be no savings in 23/24 and 24/25 (and in fact would be worst than keeping him on the roster because you could not go back to the LTIR option).

However, it would help with certain cap issues over the next two years, like keeping Dumba in the expansion draft, and avoiding having to buyout Rask this summer, which would save an additional $1.33m in 22/23.

Guerin would have to bet on a big cap jump in 23/24 and 24/25 to keep the team together.

 

[GuerinUp]

"moneypuck" the story of a fresh coach with a cap strapped crap group of centers, being a top nhl team.

 

[MNNumbers]

Looking at the cap for the next couple of years, this offseason is the time to get a handshake agreement from Parise that he will LTIR retire after next season. If Guerin cannot get that from Parise, there is option to buy him out to save $5.16m next year and $1.16m in cap in 22/23. There would be no savings in 23/24 and 24/25 (and in fact would be worst than keeping him on the roster because you could not go back to the LTIR option).

However, it would help with certain cap issues over the next two years, like keeping Dumba in the expansion draft, and avoiding having to buyout Rask this summer, which would save an additional $1.33m in 22/23.

Guerin would have to bet on a big cap jump in 23/24 and 24/25 to keep the team together.

I agree in general that Parise's contract is a big problem for the cap. As you said, even with a buyout, the cap savings down the road is minimal. There are a couple of questions I have, though...

First: Can a team unilaterally buyout a contract, or does the arrangement have to be mutual? Obviously, the player gets his money regardless, but I wonder if the player can veto the buyout?

Second: If Parise agrees to LTIR retire, is it not asking a lot of him to also waive his NMC for the expansion draft? I mean, what's his motivation? You have already told him he only has one year left. Is this team a Cup contender next year if Dumba is kept on the roster because he waived? And, in the event he waives, is it even the best decision to protect Dumba?

Third: Under the situation where none of the above happens, and Dumba is lost to the ED, then the correct cap move is to sign Ek, Fiala, and Kap this year. And, NOT to buy out Rask.
Next summer, in preparation for 22-23, only Kaakonen, Greenway and Sturm require contracts. At that point, Rask's contract is completely gone, and you can use his 4M to resign those three. There is a 1M increase in the cap as well, so you have 5M or so to work with there.
For 23-24, the issue you have is Rossi, Boldy(maybe) and Soucy. In this case, you have Talbot coming off the books, and you would have the possibility of buying out Zuccarello if his production slips. That would gain you 2M. Losing Cam, Zucc's buyout, and the expected 1M cap increase would get you 6.7M to use. Considering that Rossi and Boldy would be on the end of ELCs, this may also work. Especially since by that time, the new D-guys might be available.
For 24-25, Foligno comes off the books, and he will be 32 or 33 by that time, and a cheaper alternative should be available, since you do have a few drafted guys coming through.

In general, it actually seems like getting Dumbas' 6M off the books solves a huge number of cap issues going forward, "Provided that Sturm and Rossi can progress a little"

 

[guitarhunterdude]

In general, it actually seems like getting Dumbas' 6M off the books solves a huge number of cap issues going forward, "Provided that Sturm and Rossi can progress a little"

This has been my conclusion as well... provided I think the money will be spent wisely, which I'm unconvinced of. We have too much spent on the back end, and Dumba is the only realistically movable piece there, but I don't have the faith in Guerin to make good acquisitions and/or reasonable extensions to players with that cap space. I think we end up overpaying Greenway and another bottom-six player (though the Hartman extension does give me more hope that Guerin won't overpay replaceable players).

 

[MNNumbers]

This has been my conclusion as well... provided I think the money will be spent wisely, which I'm unconvinced of. We have too much spent on the back end, and Dumba is the only realistically movable piece there, but I don't have the faith in Guerin to make good acquisitions and/or reasonable extensions to players with that cap space. I think we end up overpaying Greenway and another bottom-six player (though the Hartman extension does give me more hope that Guerin won't overpay replaceable players).

Thing is...there isn't much way he can go wrong as long as he doesn't overreach for a high-dollar FA. What I listed above are very standard extensions to players already present, and use of new guys coming through the pipeline. It shouldn't be hard, as long as he can navigate this summer.

 

[nickschultzfan]

I agree in general that Parise's contract is a big problem for the cap. As you said, even with a buyout, the cap savings down the road is minimal. There are a couple of questions I have, though...

First: Can a team unilaterally buyout a contract, or does the arrangement have to be mutual? Obviously, the player gets his money regardless, but I wonder if the player can veto the buyout?

Second: If Parise agrees to LTIR retire, is it not asking a lot of him to also waive his NMC for the expansion draft? I mean, what's his motivation? You have already told him he only has one year left. Is this team a Cup contender next year if Dumba is kept on the roster because he waived? And, in the event he waives, is it even the best decision to protect Dumba?

Third: Under the situation where none of the above happens, and Dumba is lost to the ED, then the correct cap move is to sign Ek, Fiala, and Kap this year. And, NOT to buy out Rask.
Next summer, in preparation for 22-23, only Kaakonen, Greenway and Sturm require contracts. At that point, Rask's contract is completely gone, and you can use his 4M to resign those three. There is a 1M increase in the cap as well, so you have 5M or so to work with there.
For 23-24, the issue you have is Rossi, Boldy(maybe) and Soucy. In this case, you have Talbot coming off the books, and you would have the possibility of buying out Zuccarello if his production slips. That would gain you 2M. Losing Cam, Zucc's buyout, and the expected 1M cap increase would get you 6.7M to use. Considering that Rossi and Boldy would be on the end of ELCs, this may also work. Especially since by that time, the new D-guys might be available.
For 24-25, Foligno comes off the books, and he will be 32 or 33 by that time, and a cheaper alternative should be available, since you do have a few drafted guys coming through.

In general, it actually seems like getting Dumbas' 6M off the books solves a huge number of cap issues going forward, "Provided that Sturm and Rossi can progress a little"

1) Yes, team can unilaterally buyout a player's contract during the buyout windows (beginning of offseason, late summer if there is a team RFA scheduled for arbitration, etc.)

2) An agreement to quietly LTIR "retire" in a couple of years would make him more likely, not less likely to waive for the expansion draft. The justification for getting to waive would be that he gets 1 or 2 chances at the long-playoff run with a stronger team.

3) Yes. If Dumba goes to Seattle, I agree it would be better to eat the last year of Rask's contract instead of having a buyout hangover in 22/23.

If Dumba does not go to Seattle, then it is almost guaranteed that Rask will be bought out (unless Guerin can pull off a cap dump trade).

 

[Minnewildsota]

1) Yes, team can unilaterally buyout a player's contract during the buyout windows (beginning of offseason, late summer if there is a team RFA scheduled for arbitration, etc.)

2) An agreement to quietly LTIR "retire" in a couple of years would make him more likely, not less likely to waive for the expansion draft. The justification for getting to waive would be that he gets 1 or 2 chances at the long-playoff run with a stronger team.

3) Yes. If Dumba goes to Seattle, I agree it would be better to eat the last year of Rask's contract instead of having a buyout hangover in 22/23.

If Dumba does not go to Seattle, then it is almost guaranteed that Rask will be bought out (unless Guerin can pull off a cap dump trade).

Who would that be though?

 

[MNNumbers]

Who would that be though?

It would have to be a Dumba trade. There are a couple of possibilities. If Dumba doesn't get taken by Seattle, then either Soucy did, or it was a forward (likely Greenway, Foligno, or Hartman). In the case of Soucy being taken, then you don't really want to trade Dumba, too, because it leaves you relying on 3 inexperienced guys at D, even if 2 of them are Addison and Menell.

In the case of a forward being taken, there are 2 chances for a Dumba trade:
1- a trade which brings back a C at about Dumba's salary. This is barely doable, but would require a Rask buyout, and leave you very tight on cap space for Greenway and Kaakonen (although this might helped if Greenway were the one taken). Like I say, it barely works, but it can work.
2- A pure cap dump, in which case you have a lot of options going forward.

The simplest answer is simply that Dumba is chosen. Many here don't like that, because they say it's a waste of a good asset, and better would be a Dumba trade, so as to get something back, and lose a lesser asset in the ED.

Problem is, there are few good trades for centers that are even possible, and Dumba probably doesn't hold as much trade value as we wish he did, and so if you DO trade him, you end up with some kind of comparison like this:
A - Lose Dumba to ED, have 6M cap space to work with in future, which allows resigning all the guys you want to keep for several years going forward.
B - Lose Dumba and either Soucy/Greenway, and get back a low 2C at best, but you also gain the cap space of the player chosen, so it's likely to be, for cap: 6 +2M down (8M), 5M back(if it's a C), leaves 3M for other contracts, but you don't have to worry about resigning Greenway, because he is gone, or.......8.75 down (Dumba + Soucy), lower salaried prospects back, with lots of cap room, but now you have to fill a stable D guy as well.

It's a hard exchange to value, especially you have to make the trade before the ED.

Otherwise, you can protect Dumba, lose Greenway (likely, maybe Foligno), and trade Dumba after the ED once you see that you still have Soucy, with similar returns, although now the trade will need to match salaries much closer.

 

[Webster]

@MNNumbers Zuccarello buyout? a 70+ point player

If the Wild don't want to keep Zucc beyond next season they can always trade him, they'll have no problem with that, and will get something nice in return.

 

[Bazeek]

@MNNumbers Zuccarello buyout? a 70+ point player

If the Wild don't want to keep Zucc beyond next season they can always trade him, they'll have no problem with that, and will get something nice in return.

Yeah, the only problem with Zuccarello was the NMC through the expansion draft, and he's played well enough this year that he'd be protected regardless. Having the contract switch to a modified NTC in 2 years should give us whatever options we need, if it even comes to that.

 

[BigT2002]

It would have to be a Dumba trade. There are a couple of possibilities. If Dumba doesn't get taken by Seattle, then either Soucy did, or it was a forward (likely Greenway, Foligno, or Hartman). In the case of Soucy being taken, then you don't really want to trade Dumba, too, because it leaves you relying on 3 inexperienced guys at D, even if 2 of them are Addison and Menell.

In the case of a forward being taken, there are 2 chances for a Dumba trade:
1- a trade which brings back a C at about Dumba's salary. This is barely doable, but would require a Rask buyout, and leave you very tight on cap space for Greenway and Kaakonen (although this might helped if Greenway were the one taken). Like I say, it barely works, but it can work.
2- A pure cap dump, in which case you have a lot of options going forward.

The simplest answer is simply that Dumba is chosen. Many here don't like that, because they say it's a waste of a good asset, and better would be a Dumba trade, so as to get something back, and lose a lesser asset in the ED.

Problem is, there are few good trades for centers that are even possible, and Dumba probably doesn't hold as much trade value as we wish he did, and so if you DO trade him, you end up with some kind of comparison like this:
A - Lose Dumba to ED, have 6M cap space to work with in future, which allows resigning all the guys you want to keep for several years going forward.
B - Lose Dumba and either Soucy/Greenway, and get back a low 2C at best, but you also gain the cap space of the player chosen, so it's likely to be, for cap: 6 +2M down (8M), 5M back(if it's a C), leaves 3M for other contracts, but you don't have to worry about resigning Greenway, because he is gone, or.......8.75 down (Dumba + Soucy), lower salaried prospects back, with lots of cap room, but now you have to fill a stable D guy as well.

It's a hard exchange to value, especially you have to make the trade before the ED.

Otherwise, you can protect Dumba, lose Greenway (likely, maybe Foligno), and trade Dumba after the ED once you see that you still have Soucy, with similar returns, although now the trade will need to match salaries much closer.

Whether we as fans like it or not, it is pretty rare for a team to have 1-4 Defensive players all making over $6M/yr starting next year. Not to mention a 5/6 pairing also around $5M/yr combined as well. That is a TON of money invested in your blue line. Something is eventually going to give on that. It just has to.

Parise's contract is nasty, but it is far from being overvalued at this point when you compare it to many of the others out there that are roughly the same age + length of contract. The Wild are not living and dying by that $7.5M/yr. Having roughly $25M of your annual cap tied up into your 1-6 Defensive Corps certainly isn't helping. Yes, they all deserve what they're getting paid -- but even Tampa only has 2 players over $6M/yr.

 

[Wild11MN]

@MNNumbers Zuccarello buyout? a 70+ point player

If the Wild don't want to keep Zucc beyond next season they can always trade him, they'll have no problem with that, and will get something nice in return.

He's as much a 70+ point player as he is a 100+ point player. Hit 60 points once in his career 5 years ago (and it was 61).

But it's semantics. Obviously a buyout is not being considered.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Can’t wait to plug Boldy in Bonino’s PP spot and Rossi in Rasks.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

What are the chances that Talbot start both games tonight and tomorrow night against the Ducks?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

What are the chances that Talbot start both games tonight and tomorrow night against the Ducks?

I’d be extremely surprised.

 

[GuerinUp]

What are the chances that Talbot start both games tonight and tomorrow night against the Ducks?

id be very surprised, not really the time to be playing back to backs with playoffs right around the corner.

 

[ThatGuy22]

id be very surprised, not really the time to be playing back to backs with playoffs right around the corner.

Two sets of back to backs. Talbot/Kahkonen will likely split the games.

That way neither are cold or over-worked heading into playoffs.

 

[GuerinUp]

Two sets of back to backs. Talbot/Kahkonen will likely split the games.

That way neither are cold or over-worked heading into playoffs.

we also have a coach who likes putting rask out in overtime so who really knows

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I thought the same last week on your guys back to backs and Talbot completely surprised me taking both games. I hope he gets a shutout tonight so it's tough to not play him tomorrow as well

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Kahkonen playing tonight. mannnnnn my life sucks.

 

[Minnewildsota]

we also have a coach who likes putting rask out in overtime so who really knows

To me, that wasn't even the most baffling thing.

Step 1)Leaving Kahk in there for a 9-1 shalacking on day 1 of a back to back. Thought he was left in due to back to back games.
Step 2)Then a few weeks later, Talbot puts up a stinker on a day 1, then plays day 2 because he wants to.

 

[NHL1674]

Parise is scratched again tonight.

 

[57special]

Anyone else think that Bjugstad looked OK?