Minnesota Wild General Discussion IV

[DANOZ28]

Kind of interesting, there's a thread on some of the main boards talking about teams with the best top 4. Quite a few people have the Wild in the top 5, and even as high as #2. No opinion either way, just find it interesting to see where fans of other teams rate the Wild defense.

if healthy we have a very good D core. (was better w scandella) i would not split them up. this season hinges on whether or not suter is 100%. i dont think he will be.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Jones couldn't be used as a comparable, he signed his contract after his ELC. Dumba is coming off of a 2 year bridge deal after his ELC.

I'm not sure if Miller/Zucker works or not. If so then Nino and/or Granny (from last year) would also fall into that same grouping.

Well, in that case:

There is a player that not too long ago was 24 years old, coming off of a bridge deal, scored 10 goals and 53 points in 82 games in the final bridge year, and signed for 8 years x 13.04% of the cap (which would be $10.367M per year in today's dollars).

Uh oh.

 

[Bazeek]

Well, in that case:

There is a player that not too long ago was 24 years old, coming off of a bridge deal, scored 10 goals and 53 points in 82 games in the final bridge year, and signed for 8 years x 13.04% of the cap (which would be $10.367M per year in today's dollars).

Uh oh.

Which is why I laugh when Russo frets that Dumba might cost more than $6m. Depends somewhat on the term, but anything under $7m is a good thing in my mind.

Edit: didn't Barrie get his current 4 years at $5.5m deal at around the same age? He'd put up 38, 53 and 49 pts in the preceding three seasons. Half the term, though.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Which is why I laugh when Russo frets that Dumba might cost more than $6m. Depends somewhat on the term, but anything under $7m is a good thing in my mind.

Edit: didn't Barrie get his current 4 years at $5.5m deal at around the same age? He'd put up 38, 53 and 49 pts in the preceding three seasons. Half the term, though.

That's a good one too. Barrie's contract with today's cap is $6M.

At least we have our range now.

4 x $6 (Barrie)
5 x $7
6 x $8
7 x $9
8 x $10 (Subban)

 

[Bazeek]

That's a good one too. Barrie's contract with today's cap is $6M.

At least we have our range now.

4 x $6 (Barrie)
5 x $7
6 x $8
7 x $9
8 x $10 (Subban)

Helps kill my enthusiasm for a 7-8 year deal I guess it depends on how good the comparables really are and how much you see the cap rising over the next decade.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Helps kill my enthusiasm for a 7-8 year deal I guess it depends on how good the comparables really are and how much you see the cap rising over the next decade.

Subban might be a little bit high. I forgot he won a Norris the year before, albeit in a shortened season, but he was also the unquestioned #1 defenseman on his team. Dumba doesn't have either of those, so maybe drop the ceiling to 8 x $8 or something.

 

[Bazeek]

Subban might be a little bit high. I forgot the won a Norris the year before, albeit in a shortened season, but he was also the unquestioned #1 defenseman on his team. Dumba doesn't have either of those, so maybe drop the ceiling to 8 x $8 or something.

That would scale things much more comfortably. Realistically I can't see them offering him more than Suter, but I would not hate $7x7.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Which is why I laugh when Russo frets that Dumba might cost more than $6m. Depends somewhat on the term, but anything under $7m is a good thing in my mind.

Edit: didn't Barrie get his current 4 years at $5.5m deal at around the same age? He'd put up 38, 53 and 49 pts in the preceding three seasons. Half the term, though.

Problem is Barrie is paid a lot for a guy who isn't good at defense.

That is the risk with offense Dmen. I may be upsetting people for continually making this point, but with offensive Dmen,if he can play regular minutes, you pay "full price" regardless of the level of defensive quality of the player. Only if his complete garbage in his own end does he get relegated to a protected bottom-pairing, PP specialist role, and even those guys get big money every third contract because some team is desperate for offense.

 

[2Pair]

That would scale things much more comfortably. Realistically I can't see them offering him more than Suter, but I would not hate $7x7.

I think you're about $1M high on your upper end projections. I think $5M is probably the floor no matter the term, but don't see anything going over $7M. My guess would be 6 years in the mid to high 5's.

 

[TaLoN]

Problem is Barrie is paid a lot for a guy who isn't good at defense.

That is the risk with offense Dmen. I may be upsetting people for continually making this point, but with offensive Dmen,if he can play regular minutes, you pay "full price" regardless of the level of defensive quality of the player. Only if his complete garbage in his own end does he get relegated to a protected bottom-pairing, PP specialist role, and even those guys get big money every third contract because some team is desperate for offense.

Dumba is a decent defender though.

 

[2Pair]

Dumba is a decent defender though.

Prosser is a decent defender. Dumba is very good.

 

[TaLoN]

Prosser is a decent defender. Dumba is very good.

Yes, compared to Prosser, he's very good. I was comparing him to the rest of the top 4 in just defense. He's a good, but not yet great pure defender. Add in his offense and he becomes a great defenseman.

He's still growing defensively though and could be a great defender in his own right too.

 

[DANOZ28]

also we're getting use to the wild D making very few mistakes.

 

[57special]

Yes, compared to Prosser, he's very good. I was comparing him to the rest of the top 4 in just defense. He's a good, but not yet great pure defender. Add in his offense and he becomes a great defenseman.

He's still growing defensively though and could be a great defender in his own right too.

I'd have to disagree. Prosser, while not having much physical talent, is just as good as Dumba defensively, if not better. I think that Prosser has figured out his limitations, and makes decisions on the ice based on that, while dumba makes all kinds of poor, risky choices, whether it be pinching, off target touch passes in his own end, overstriding while skating backwards causing him to be out of position, or making "surprise" passes to his D partner that puts them in bad spots.

Calling him a good defender is just not accurate. He doesn't do, or appear to understand, certain things that all good defensive Dmen understand.

 

[SupremeNachos]

Subban might be a little bit high. I forgot he stole a Norris the year before, albeit in a shortened season, but he was also the unquestioned #1 defenseman on his team. Dumba doesn't have either of those, so maybe drop the ceiling to 8 x $8 or something.

FTFY

 

[nickschultzfan]

I am currently listening to Russo on KFAN from this morning and James Mirtle from the Athletic was on talking about how the Leafs plan is probably to keep all the star forwards and just look for undervalued Dmen who are good skaters and can move the puck quickly but do not put up offensive numbers, keeping the dollar amount on the blueline low. In analytics those guys are high return.

I am really, really interest to see if that strategy works. But I definitely think those "boring" Dmen are undervalued and offensive Dmen overvalued.

I want my quarterback to make smart throws accurately without flair. I don't need a quarterback that can run like the wind, make a 70 yard throw, or have the guts to throw the ball hard into coverage. Just simple toss and catch.

 

[2Pair]

I am currently listening to Russo on KFAN from this morning and James Mirtle from the Athletic was on talking about how the Leafs plan is probably to keep all the star forwards and just look for undervalued Dmen who are good skaters and can move the puck quickly but do not put up offensive numbers, keeping the dollar amount on the blueline low. In analytics those guys are high return.

I am really, really interest to see if that strategy works. But I definitely think those "boring" Dmen are undervalued and offensive Dmen overvalued.

I want my quarterback to make smart throws accurately without flair. I don't need a quarterback that can run like the wind, make a 70 yard throw, or have the guts to throw the ball hard into coverage. Just simple toss and catch.

Every football fan knows that you have a much better chance to win with a guy like Case Keenum over those high priced guys like Brady, Manning, and Rodgers.

 

[Spurgeon]

I am currently listening to Russo on KFAN from this morning and James Mirtle from the Athletic was on talking about how the Leafs plan is probably to keep all the star forwards and just look for undervalued Dmen who are good skaters and can move the puck quickly but do not put up offensive numbers, keeping the dollar amount on the blueline low. In analytics those guys are high return.

I am really, really interest to see if that strategy works. But I definitely think those "boring" Dmen are undervalued and offensive Dmen overvalued.

I want my quarterback to make smart throws accurately without flair. I don't need a quarterback that can run like the wind, make a 70 yard throw, or have the guts to throw the ball hard into coverage. Just simple toss and catch.

Toronto has an upcoming Cup window of 1 year if they plan on keeping all 4 of those forwards IMO. Don't see them sniffing the cup for quite a few years after that if they decide to lock up that much of their cap into 4 forwards.

Guess we'll see if their strategy pays off. I just don't see them fielding a competent defense and feel like they're going to end up like the Stars.

 

[Bazeek]

Toronto seems to be banking on the "Penguins Model" with worse centers, worse defensemen, and a worse goalie. We'll see how it goes.

 

[Minnesnota]

Toronto seems to be banking on the "Penguins Model" with worse centers, worse defensemen, and a worse goalie. We'll see how it goes.

I'd take Andersen over Murray 100 times out of 100.
Tavares and Matthews albeit not as good as Crosby or Malkin have a significantly better supporting cast.
Letang is the best d-man on either team but he's injury prone and old and the "Penguins Model" showed you can win without him.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Every football fan knows that you have a much better chance to win with a guy like Case Keenum over those high priced guys like Brady, Manning, and Rodgers.

This is hilarious because you just made my point. Again. Brady and Rodgers are exactly the kind of non-flashy college quarterbacks that win championships because they maximize the skills that only the quarterback can do - reading defense instantly and getting the ball quickly around the field. Yes, they bring other qualities too, but that simple decision making is what makes them elite.

Compare their success to the constant parade of high draft picks who "can make every throw" at the combine or "change how defenses scheme by adding a running threat" or are just monster athletes or are "just winners".

NFL compensation being commensurate with their actual value is irrelevant. NFL is just correct to do so.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Toronto seems to be banking on the "Penguins Model" with worse centers, worse defensemen, and a worse goalie. We'll see how it goes.

"Worse" is a relevative term. I wouldn't call Tavares, Mathews, Reilly, and Anderson slumming it.

Maybe they don't win as many Cups as the Pens, but they are going to be fun as hell to watch.

 

[Bazeek]

"Worse" is a relevative term. I wouldn't call Tavares, Mathews, Reilly, and Anderson slumming it.

Maybe they don't win as many Cups as the Pens, but they are going to be fun as hell to watch.

That's kind of a truism, isn't it?

 

[2Pair]

That's kind of a truism, isn't it?

relatively speaking?

 

[Wabit]

Toronto has an upcoming Cup window of 1 year if they plan on keeping all 4 of those forwards IMO. Don't see them sniffing the cup for quite a few years after that if they decide to lock up that much of their cap into 4 forwards.

Guess we'll see if their strategy pays off. I just don't see them fielding a competent defense and feel like they're going to end up like the Stars.

I'd give them a 3-4 year window. Andersen has 3 years left; Kardi, Reilly, and Zaitsev all have 4 or more years left on their deals; and they have a good coach with Babcock. Currently they are setup so the next expansion draft (under the same rules) won't cost them more than a decent player.

Their defense could be better, for sure, but they can at least compete with anyone for the next few years. They don't need everything to go just right (like the Wild do), they just need some things to go right.