Confirmed Signing with Link: [MIN] Wild and Dumba settle (5 years, $6M AAV)

[Dickie Dunn]

in grade 8 social studies the teacher told us a famous quote... those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it

this saying can be applied to all sorts of human behavior but it always comes back to the same thing

sometimes, its a good idea not to pretend like we are reinventing the wheel. sometimes its a good idea to see patterns develop in the past and take warning that the might repeat. sometimes we should not be so quick to say apples and oranges

anyhow... good luck with this contract. im glad as hell it wasn't my team that did it. im not glad that it will help further weaken the already weak controls teams are putting on rfa with very shaky resumes.

this contract will be used in future arbitration rulings. the already cracked system gets hurt a little bit more

Put the cork back in the bottle.

 

[Mighty Makar]

I think this is a good deal. Dumba's pretty good.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Sure if you ignore Shot Suppression , Take-Aways , +/- and points Reilly is a much better Defenseman.....step away from the pipe bud .Reilly isn't even the best Leafs Defenseman , I would trade him for Dumba and throw in a + or take back some of Reilly's contract to get that deal done .

Step away from the pipe? Love it.

If you want to talk up dumba I’m all for it. I love that guy.

My guess is that you don’t have many friends though. Nobody in Toronto agrees with you.

Just out of curiosity, who is your best defensmen?

 

[Aurinko]

I think this is a good deal. Dumba's pretty good.

Dumba has insane shot, almost 10 shot% several years in straight is very nice for a D. That being said, I think his stats are inflated because he rarely does passes. Few incredible seasons won't convince me that this deal is worth. Especially if there is a danger in losing Zucker because of this.

edit: Only the elite D get a 6M contract at this age, and the elite D have higher PPG. Currently I see this contract as a steep priced.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Hope this means Hanifin won't be demanding too much on a long term deal.

 

[TaLoN]

Dumba has insane shot, almost 10 shot% several years in straight is very nice for a D. That being said, I think his stats are inflated because he rarely does passes. Few incredible seasons won't convince me that this deal is worth. Especially if there is a danger in losing Zucker because of this.

edit: Only the elite D get a 6M contract at this age, and the elite D have higher PPG. Currently I see this contract as a steep priced.

Elite D likely get a contract like this at a younger age, they don't usually have to go through a bridge deal like Dumba just did...

That said, here's the list of all the player/seasons who put up 50+ points at 23yrso or less since 2005. As you can see, that's a pretty exclusive list.

 

[Aurinko]

Elite D likely get a contract like this at a younger age, they don't usually have to go through a bridge deal like Dumba just did...

That said, here's the list of all the player/seasons who put up 50+ points at 23yrso or less since 2005. As you can see, that's a pretty exclusive list.

It's a nice list, but still.. is there anyone who made this much money at 23 yo. ? In general I see all offensive D-men overrated and overpayed, so I'm biased in that way.

Looking at the wider stats, Dumba does look better D than some of the competition.
His points/60 are far from Karlsson and Burns (1.4/1.32 vs. 0.89) but his overall plusminus is much much better! 2014-2018 seasons he is +56, while Burns +14 and EK -7. I think plusminus matters a lot more than individual scoring, so I would say I'd rather have Dumba than either of these. (That still doesn't mean I accept the high price of the contract)

 

[TaLoN]

It's a nice list, but still.. is there anyone who made this much money at 23 yo. ? In general I see all offensive D-men overrated and overpayed, so I'm biased in that way.

Looking at the wider stats, Dumba does look better D than some of the competition.
His points/60 are far from Karlsson and Burns (1.4/1.32 vs. 0.89) but his overall plusminus is much much better! 2014-2018 seasons he is +56, while Burns +14 and EK -7. I think plusminus matters a lot more than individual scoring, so I would say I'd rather have Dumba than either of these. (That still doesn't mean I accept the high price of the contract)

You have to consider the inflation of dollars over time for these guys. $6m is no longer top pair money... that's middle pair money.

 

[Taylor26]

Fair deal...going too only be 24 this season and young 50pt RHD's don't grow on trees.

 

[ijuka]

I think plusminus matters a lot more than individual scoring

Indeed, I too would rather have Patrik Nemeth than Drew Doughty.

 

[Aurinko]

Indeed, I too would rather have Patrik Nemeth than Drew Doughty.

Why would you say so? Doughty has better stats and actually plays against top lines... in any league.

 

[Skolman]

Why would you say so? Doughty has better stats and actually plays against top lines... in any league.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Dumba has insane shot, almost 10 shot% several years in straight is very nice for a D. That being said, I think his stats are inflated because he rarely does passes. Few incredible seasons won't convince me that this deal is worth. Especially if there is a danger in losing Zucker because of this.

edit: Only the elite D get a 6M contract at this age, and the elite D have higher PPG. Currently I see this contract as a steep priced.

Had 36 assists. What do you mean he rarely does passes?

 

[Aurinko]

Had 36 assists. What do you mean he rarely does passes?

He is the guy who shoots on our PP, mostly he shoots to score.

This season Dumba (14G, 36A, 176shots) had bit more ice time than Suter (6G, 45A, 149shots). You probably agree that most of Suter's shots are intended as passes. I might be an old school hockey fan, but I just like defensive players more. Even though Dumba had great 8% shot, I'd still rather see a forward with 15%+ shot to shoot it.

 

[Digitalbooya]

He is the guy who shoots on our PP, mostly he shoots to score.

This season Dumba (14G, 36A, 176shots) had bit more ice time than Suter (6G, 45A, 149shots). You probably agree that most of Suter's shots are intended as passes. I might be an old school hockey fan, but I just like defensive players more. Even though Dumba had great 8% shot, I'd still rather see a forward with 15%+ shot to shoot it.

He is quite literally the best shot option we have for the “Ovechkin spot.” Dumba played less even strength, less shorthanded, and less on the power play in terms of time on ice per game. What do you mean he had more ice time than Suter? Suter’s minutes are down to a healthier 26-27 mins a night and Dumba playing 24 a night certainly was one of the reasons. Dumba is just a better shooter than Suter but that doesn’t mean he rarely passes. Plain and simple.

 

[57special]

Dumba has insane shot, almost 10 shot% several years in straight is very nice for a D. That being said, I think his stats are inflated because he rarely does passes. Few incredible seasons won't convince me that this deal is worth. Especially if there is a danger in losing Zucker because of this.

edit: Only the elite D get a 6M contract at this age, and the elite D have higher PPG. Currently I see this contract as a steep priced.

Dumba is a good passer in the O zone. The fact that you are bringing up +/- as a relevant stat proves you don't know what you are talking about.

 

[Aurinko]

Dumba is a good passer in the O zone. The fact that you are bringing up +/- as a relevant stat proves you don't know what you are talking about.

On the contrary, plusminus is the statistic where you have to understand what you are looking at. Before posting anything about Dumba/Karlsson/Burns I compared their individual plusminus stats to their teammates and linemates to see who had positive and who had negative stats. You also have to take into account the PP and PK use, but since they play no part in 5v5 and that what this game is based on, I decided to mention them. If you actually look at their +/- and understand what you are looking at, their stats from this season are trivially easy to read. I did this to ensure I wasn't talking shit and knew exactly what I was talking about.

 

[Freaky Styley]

Probably about 1M too rich for my blood. Also means Barrie will be asking for ~8M, which means he will (hopefully) likely be traded next offseason.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Dumba has insane shot, almost 10 shot% several years in straight is very nice for a D. That being said, I think his stats are inflated because he rarely does passes. Few incredible seasons won't convince me that this deal is worth. Especially if there is a danger in losing Zucker because of this.

edit: Only the elite D get a 6M contract at this age, and the elite D have higher PPG. Currently I see this contract as a steep priced.

This deal in no way puts us in danger of losing Zucker.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

Dumba has insane shot, almost 10 shot% several years in straight is very nice for a D. That being said, I think his stats are inflated because he rarely does passes. Few incredible seasons won't convince me that this deal is worth. Especially if there is a danger in losing Zucker because of this.

edit: Only the elite D get a 6M contract at this age, and the elite D have higher PPG. Currently I see this contract as a steep priced.

This is not the case, we have plenty of space to sign Zucker, we have 24 rostered now anyways, so there is more space.

 

[Aurinko]

This deal in no way puts us in danger of losing Zucker.

This is not the case, we have plenty of space to sign Zucker, we have 24 rostered now anyways, so there is more space.

So basically you are saying that we're going to lose Zucker?

 

[Pia8988]

So basically you are saying that we're going to lose Zucker?

Even worse, you’ll have to pay someone to take Zucker

 

[Goose312]

Dumba has insane shot, almost 10 shot% several years in straight is very nice for a D. That being said, I think his stats are inflated because he rarely does passes. Few incredible seasons won't convince me that this deal is worth. Especially if there is a danger in losing Zucker because of this.

edit: Only the elite D get a 6M contract at this age, and the elite D have higher PPG. Currently I see this contract as a steep priced.

You do realize the dollar amount isn't what matters, right? Contracts are signed based on the cap. Cap goes up, dollar amount goes up. The best comparison to Dumba's contract is Barrie's.

Dumba: Coming off a 2 year bridge, 50 pt defender played nearly 24 minutes a night, age 24 when the contract starts, 7.55% of the cap, signed for 5 years buying 3 UFA years.

Barrie: Coming off a 2 year bridge, 50 pt defender played a bit over 23 minutes a night, age 25 when the contract started, 7.53% of the cap, signed for 4 years buying 2 UFA years.

There are a bunch of other deals signed in recent years that are close comparisons to what Dumba got, just not necessarily in dollar amount because the dollar amount is constantly impacted by the cap going up.

 

[ref88]

Probably about 1M too rich for my blood. Also means Barrie will be asking for ~8M, which means he will (hopefully) likely be traded next offseason.

Lol

 

[TaLoN]

So basically you are saying that we're going to lose Zucker?

Even worse, you’ll have to pay someone to take Zucker

As we have said several times over, we had plenty of space to sign Zucker.