Mikko Rantanen Part V - Baby Come Back

21

Peter The Great
Aug 17, 2005
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I am surprised that Laine signed before Rantanen, if only because Laine seemed indifferent as to even continuing to play in Winnipeg. I thought he may play hard ball for a while, particularly since he essentially threw some of his linemates under the bus with public comments. It just comes down to a bridge versus a long term deal, which the Avs are apparently seeking with Rantanen. The rumors were that Connor is seeking a long term deal as well, so that may account as to why they are the last two prominent RFAs still unsigned.

No idea what Laine and his agent was hoping for, perhaps he was hoping for a monster deal from another team, a new fresh start somewhere else, but he messed it up last season big time, underperforming, now he has to prove his worth one more time.

I was sure myself Laine was going to be a huge star but now I don't know any longer. :-( I have some doubts about his will, his attitude and his grit. Laine is giving me the impression off a sports car stuck on the third gear, hopefully he (and a couple of sports psychologists) manage to sort this out, something is not totally right I feel.
 
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Metallo

NWOBHM forever \m/
Feb 14, 2010
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No... :dunno:

Edit: Just(in) Wondering Aloud: Why RFA bridge deals may cost...

ok I changed my mind. Talks about RFAs walking into ufa... I’d much rather get that long term deal done now lol. Great read and worth the sub.
I get that a 3yr deal would put Mikko on the brink of UFA with his QO but a 2yr deal gives 2 years to sign the extension. It would be a long time for Mikko to wait if he wants to get out of Denver at all cost, which is an unlikely scenario in the first place. Obvisously the last year must not have a inflated salary making the QO too pricy.

I would not be great, kind of a punt down the road but that’s better than a fumble...
 

duckbear

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Mar 31, 2016
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No reason to sign Mikko to a bridge. We know he is worth the money, and its better to have a higher cap hit in years 1 2 and 3 and a lower in 4 - up to 8. 7 or 8 years at 9-9.5m feels right.
 

Pierce Hawthorne

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No reason to sign Mikko to a bridge. We know he is worth the money, and its better to have a higher cap hit in years 1 2 and 3 and a lower in 4 - up to 8. 7 or 8 years at 9-9.5m feels right.


:laugh: good luck getting Mikko to sign that.


5-6 years, you might get him in that range. If you're buying 3, or even 4 years of UFA, that cap hit is going up into the 10M range and rightfully so.


I'd honestly say to get him on an 8 year deal it would have to be an 11.xxx deal.
 
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the_fan

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It's ok to be critical that this is dragging on, just as it was ok to be critical about the Duchene trade dragging on. If a player isn't signed one week before the season starts it's not just business as usual.

We'll just have to see what the end result is. If the reports are true that Sakic does this to ensure a long term deal, it's easy to get behind him. It makes sense for Avs to not want to revisit this in 3-4 years time with the player in a much stronger negotiating position.
If Sakic wants a long term deal he needs to give Mikko 10 mill or close to it, and I have no idea why he's not doing it since 10 mill for 7 years or whatever wont handicap the Avs with cap problems in a long run. If the reports are true that Sakic is offering less than 9 long term, I dont blame Mikko for not taking it.
 

Raucherhusten

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:laugh: good luck getting Mikko to sign that.


5-6 years, you might get him in that range. If you're buying 3, or even 4 years of UFA, that cap hit is going up into the 10M range and rightfully so.


I'd honestly say to get him on an 8 year deal it would have to be an 11.xxx deal.
10m AAV on an 8 year deal is probably a good deal for both sides when you take into account that half of those years are RFA years. 7.5m for the RFAs and 12.5 for the UFAs.
dunno.gif
 

21

Peter The Great
Aug 17, 2005
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Frustrating, I am a bit disappointed on all involved parties but as long as he sign I promise to forget it immediately.
 

duckbear

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Mar 31, 2016
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:laugh: good luck getting Mikko to sign that.


5-6 years, you might get him in that range. If you're buying 3, or even 4 years of UFA, that cap hit is going up into the 10M range and rightfully so.


I'd honestly say to get him on an 8 year deal it would have to be an 11.xxx deal.
Hmm... rumours are they are stuck around 9m. Sakic wanting 8.5 and Rants wanting over 9. Presumably they are talking about 6 years or so. 9.5 for 7 or even 10 x 8 seems like s good compromise.

Even if you forecast Rantanens next contract to like 14m a year, hed be better off taking 10x8 now than 9.5x7 and then 14m on his next. If 9m is really where they are at, which seems reasonable given the contracts paid out so far, and Marners tax to Col calculation, paying a but kore to get years 7 or 8 seems smart to me.
 
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cgf

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Hmm... rumours are they are stuck around 9m. Sakic wanting 8.5 and Rants wanting over 9. Presumably they are talking about 6 years or so. 9.5 for 7 or even 10 x 8 seems like s good compromise.

Even if you forecast Rantanens next contract to like 14m a year, hed be better off taking 10x8 now than 9.5x7 and then 14m on his next. If 9m is really where they are at, which seems reasonable given the contracts paid out so far, and Marners tax to Col calculation, paying a but kore to get years 7 or 8 seems smart to me.

The 9M # suggests that they're talking about a 5 year deal. Those are both low.
 

Pierce Hawthorne

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10m AAV on an 8 year deal is probably a good deal for both sides when you take into account that half of those years are RFA years. 7.5m for the RFAs and 12.5 for the UFAs.
dunno.gif

12.5M would be on the low end for his UFA years. Look at what Panarin just got as a UFA this year with slightly worse stats then Mikko. Now factor that Mikko's UFA years would be 4 years down the road with a cap that will be much higher.


In order to get Mikko on an 8 year deal the contract would have to be structured something like this:


Year 1: 7M
Year 2: 7M
Year 3: 8M
Year 4: 10M(Technically this is an RFA year but as we've seen with the bridge deals recently, its being treated as a UFA year by players and teams essentially)
Year 5: 12M
Year 6: 13M
Year 7: 15M
Year 8: 15M


In order for him to actually sign and 8 year deal you have to really make it worth it in those final years. Because by signing an 8 year deal that means he becomes a UFA basically at age 31 instead of age 28 or 29(Like he would on a 5 or 6 year deal). And as we're seeing more and more now, teams are spending money younger instead of on older guys. At 28/29 he could probably get another 7 year deal in the 11-12M neighborhood. But at 31 it would be much harder for him to get that 7 year deal and at that kind of cap hit.


So again, I really think to get him on 7 or 8 years you have to pay a lot for those last 2 years. Which is why a 5 or 6 year deal(And for the Avs really a 6) is what makes the most sense for both sides. Avs get to buy 2 years of UFA while likely still keeping the cap hit around 9.5M.


A 6 year deal structured like the above would carry a 9.416M cap hit. While adding those extra 2 years would bump it all the way up to 10.8M. But that is what it would take to get him for 8 years IMO. I would actually still quite easily prefer the 8 year deal at a 10.8M cap hit because 10.8M in 7 years from now from a likely PPG+ winger is very likely to be a fantastic deal.


But I suspect Mikko and the Avs settle for 5 or 6 years in the neighborhood of 9.5M.
 

Raucherhusten

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The 9M # suggests that they're talking about a 5 year deal. Those are both low.
Is it tho? Why do you think that when a lot in here think that 9M is more likely to be a 6 year deal? Nothing that happend in the past 2 years except the Toronto desaster points to that number, nothimg! No GM in the league is playung that game.
 

Raucherhusten

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12.5M would be on the low end for his UFA years. Look at what Panarin just got as a UFA this year with slightly worse stats then Mikko. Now factor that Mikko's UFA years would be 4 years down the road with a cap that will be much higher.


In order to get Mikko on an 8 year deal the contract would have to be structured something like this:


Year 1: 7M
Year 2: 7M
Year 3: 8M
Year 4: 10M(Technically this is an RFA year but as we've seen with the bridge deals recently, its being treated as a UFA year by players and teams essentially)
Year 5: 12M
Year 6: 13M
Year 7: 15M
Year 8: 15M


In order for him to actually sign and 8 year deal you have to really make it worth it in those final years. Because by signing an 8 year deal that means he becomes a UFA basically at age 31 instead of age 28 or 29(Like he would on a 5 or 6 year deal). And as we're seeing more and more now, teams are spending money younger instead of on older guys. At 28/29 he could probably get another 7 year deal in the 11-12M neighborhood. But at 31 it would be much harder for him to get that 7 year deal and at that kind of cap hit.


So again, I really think to get him on 7 or 8 years you have to pay a lot for those last 2 years. Which is why a 5 or 6 year deal(And for the Avs really a 6) is what makes the most sense for both sides. Avs get to buy 2 years of UFA while likely still keeping the cap hit around 9.5M.


A 6 year deal structured like the above would carry a 9.416M cap hit. While adding those extra 2 years would bump it all the way up to 10.8M. But that is what it would take to get him for 8 years IMO. I would actually still quite easily prefer the 8 year deal at a 10.8M cap hit because 10.8M in 7 years from now from a likely PPG+ winger is very likely to be a fantastic deal.


But I suspect Mikko and the Avs settle for 5 or 6 years in the neighborhood of 9.5M.

The way i see it, and to be honest i also think they will likely settle for a 6 year deal, is ...

Mikko 4 RFA years a 7.5 million > Tkachuck 7 million on a 3 year deal
Mikko 4 UFA years a 12.5 million > Panarin 11.6 million on a 7 year deal
Mikko getting 10m on an 8 year deal > Kucherov's salary on an 8 year deal

Look, you can make arguments all day for a 100k here or there and we could talk about this all year because we could add so many things into that conversation like taxes, costs of living, age, and so on but at the end of the day it has to be a contract that suits both sides and because that's such a tricky thing we are where we are atm. Mikko holding out and us speculating like there is no tomorrow.

My final thought on this is: If Mikko makes more than Kuche on an even shorter term it's a win for him and there is nothing anybody can say that can convince me of the opposite.
 
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cgf

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Is it tho? Why do you think that when a lot in here think that 9M is more likely to be a 6 year deal? Nothing that happend in the past 2 years except the Toronto desaster points to that number, nothimg! No GM in the league is playung that game.

A lot of people in here also "thought" that Makar needed to play 10 games to burn the 1st year of his ELC, that ROR would never be worth 7.5per, that Nylander would never get 7M per....just like they now "think" that Timmins is automatically exempt from the expansion draft :dunno:

We can ignore Toronto & look at the only other Mikko comparable who's signed long term lately if you prefer. The Aho deal tells me that Joe needing to come up to 9M, suggests a 5 year deal. If Joe was trying to get Mikko to sign for Aho's AAV, without giving him Aho's path to UFA; then he would actually be as delusional/incompetent as all of you are convinced that I think he is...
 
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Raucherhusten

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A lot of people in here also "thought" that Makar needed to play 10 games to burn the 1st year of his ELC, that ROR would never be worth 7.5per, that Nylander would never get 7M per....just like they now "think" that Timmins is automatically exempt from the expansion draft :dunno:

We can ignore Toronto & look at the only other Mikko comparable who's signed long term lately if you prefer. The Aho deal tells me that Joe needing to come up to 9M, suggests a 5 year deal. If Joe was trying to get Mikko to sign for Aho's AAV, without giving him Aho's path to UFA; then he would actually be as delusional/incompetent as all of you are convinced that I think he is...
I forgot that you're the expert here ;)

But seriously, i'm pretty sure they are talking about a 6y deal because it makes the most sense for both. Mikko would probably prefer 5, the Avs at least 7 ... so 6 it is.

Really funny is that i actually think that Sakic/Luit are having the same argument we have in here. Sakic wants to pay 9 mil max for 6 years while Mikko wants at least 9.5. If their conversations are even slightly like ours here they will never come to an agreement ;)
 
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AvsMakar08

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Feb 14, 2017
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Any news on Mikko Rantanen? He should have signed by today... to make it to next Thursday's seasons opening game night.
 

Goulet17

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Any news on Mikko Rantanen? He should have signed by today... to make it to next Thursday's seasons opening game night.

He very likely would miss games if he signed today. It now is a matter of how many games he will ultimately miss.
 

wayninja

Bednar's Tailor
Mar 24, 2017
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Any news on Mikko Rantanen? He should have signed by today... to make it to next Thursday's seasons opening game night.

Schrödinger is reporting that he is simultaneously close to being signed, and not close at all.
 

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