Player Discussion: Mikhail Sergachev

Discussion in 'Tampa Bay Lightning' started by The Green Unit, Jun 15, 2017.

  1. CupsOverCash

    CupsOverCash Registered User

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    He didnt play well in the playoffs but I thought he was ok in the regular season. He took a step back but I think that is normal in young second year D. I feel like for a guy like Sergachev he has to change the way he plays to grow his game if that makes sense. Like some of his best game suffers because he is trying to learn other things that will help his game going forward.
     
  2. BowDownToVasilevskiy

    BowDownToVasilevskiy Registered User

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    I'm not worried about Sergachev. He has shown flashes here and there and got better as the season was ending
     
  3. ccman68

    ccman68 Registered User

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  4. The Macho Man

    The Macho Man Lusty Bodychecker

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    RawCharge is garbage.
     
  5. Post Karl Malone

    Post Karl Malone We won that first period, tho Sponsor

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    It's probably safe to assume that Sergachev and Drouin will both be equally disappointing to their respective fanbases over their careers.

    Sergachev is an absolute disaster in his own zone. Both guys seem to have an incredible pool of talent, but the brain of a houseplant.
     
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  6. Kshahdoo

    Kshahdoo Registered User

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    Yeah, Sergachev isn't good in his own zone, even worse, than Nesterov. Our coach shoud bench him and use Zadorov instead. Sergachev is only useful on PP.
     
  7. Coopers Gum

    Coopers Gum Extend Andrej Sustr

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    I wouldn't go so far as to say he's atrocious in his own zone. Could he use improvement? Absolutely. But in a playoff series where pretty much nobody looked good, and we all got toasted, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
     
  8. AndreRoy

    AndreRoy Registered User

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    To put things into perspective, Serg went from 70.2% offensive zone starts at even strength in his rookie year to 53.8% last season. Despite that he scored the same number of ES goals (6) and slightly increased his ES assists (from 18 to 20.) Granted he also went from averaging 13:29 of ES ice time to 16:10 and his ES GF/60 did dip slightly from 3.2 to 3.1, but I think it’s fair to say that Serg’s offensive productivity at even strength at the very least did not decrease by any significant degree from his rookie season, and when you take the difference in zone starts into account you can make a strong case that he was actually more efficient with his ES scoring.

    The real drop offensively was on the power play, where he went from three goals and 13 assists to zero goals and six assists. Some (though not all) of that can be chalked up to him going from averaging 1:51 of PP ice time his rookie year to 1:30 last season - with our top unit being more efficient our second unit had less opportunity. The fact that teams had more data on his tendencies and could therefore better coach their PK units on how to play against him likely also factored into it. In any event I don’t think a decrease in power play effectiveness in his second season is anything to be worried about.

    As far as his defense is concerned he went from averaging 2.4 GA/60 at even strength to 2.5; given that he was playing significantly more and harder minutes his second season that doesn’t exactly point to a drop in defensive effectiveness. The same can be said of his CF% going from 54.3% to 53.7% - the slight decline in both of those metrics is more than outweighed by the increased length and difficulty of the ice time with which he was entrusted. He also increased his blocks by 45%, going from 64 to 93. His takeaways decreased slightly from 21 to 18, but his giveaways decreased more from 60 to 50 (an improvement in ratio from 1:2.86 to 1:2.78) and when combined with his increased ice time meant that he was a less eventful player with regard to turnovers in either direction - not necessarily a bad thing, though we’d certainly like to see him continue to improve that ratio going forward.

    I could keep going but I think I’ve made my point. Serg still has a lot to work on, but in his second season at only 20yo he greatly increased the number and difficulty of the minutes he played and still managed to perform statistically at a comparable level to his rookie year; where his numbers dropped they did not do so significantly (aside from his power play offense) and he showed improvement in a number of areas. Obviously we want to see more of that next season, but both statistically and from having watched him play all season I see no reason to panic regarding his progression and no reason to be concerned with either his short term or long term prospects.
     
  9. Hoek

    Hoek 404

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    Good stats. Everyone has been talking like he massively regressed but looks more like a typical sophomore setback as he gets more responsibility placed on him.
     
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  10. DaBolts

    DaBolts Win IT ALL or Don't Come Home

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    100% concur. He has his major brain farts but as his body matures with his brain, he could turn dangerous. Then again, everyone forgets Hedmonster's early years also; even myself during the heat of the moment.
     
  11. LightningStrikes

    LightningStrikes Elite Fan

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    So as it stands today Serg will play with either Hedman on the 1st pairing or McDonagh on the 2nd pairing next season. Will this be his breakout season? What are your predictions for him (G/A/P)?
     
  12. BoltSTH

    BoltSTH Registered User

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    If he is paired with Hedman, and QB's the second PP unit I think 10G 35A (45 points) are possible (up from 6/26/32 last year)
     
  13. Post Karl Malone

    Post Karl Malone We won that first period, tho Sponsor

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    I think I'd rather go Cernak with Hedman and Serge with McDonagh. I think his PP time will determine his production though.
     
  14. waterboy65

    waterboy65 Registered User

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    I believe the Bolts D potential is maximized with Cernak-Hedman on top pair and McD-Serg as second pair. Hedman is still best offensive D and having a physical, Defensive zone aware partner is a perfect compliment. As McD O skills continue to diminish, Serg is the puck mover needed on the second pair. Third pair of Coburn-Ruuta/Foote/Masin can be rotated depending upon matchups.
     
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  15. Post Karl Malone

    Post Karl Malone We won that first period, tho Sponsor

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    Agree completely.

    I think we'd be totally fine going Hedman-Serge if it came down to it, but I think putting Cernak with Hedman and Serge with McD gives each pairing a steady D first guy and a guy that can excel with the greenlight offensively. I think if you pair Hedman and Serge, one of those guys (probably Hedman) is going to have to sacrifice some of his offense to ensure he's covering for the other.
     
  16. waterboy65

    waterboy65 Registered User

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    I also would like to separate the two PP defenseman from playing on the same D pairing. Leads to too many odd defensive combinations where games that have a lot off PP, you have too many minutes for the top pair D-men. By keeping Hedman and Serg on separate pairings, you will always have a rested puck mover to be out on the PP! This would not be case if penalty occurs with both Hedman and Serg out on the ice!
     
  17. RetiredSquid

    RetiredSquid Registered User

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    Excellent points. As for the third pair, Coburn-Foote would have to be the favorite with either Ruuta or Gaunce as the 7th D. Folks in Syracuse keep trying to let you folks in the Tampa area know that Masin is not ready for regular NHL duty and needs to be on the farm as an emergency option only. This has to be his make or break season with the organization, so he needs the exposure and challenge of 1st or 2nd pair minutes at the AHL level rather than 3rd pair and press box time in the NHL.
    Having Witkowski back in Syracuse and probably wearing the "C" will have a far greater impact on the team than many give his signing credit for. He will replace Andreoff as the heart and soul of the team for the 19-20 season leading by example as he did during his previous stint.
     
  18. Todd1a

    Todd1a Kucherov or prospect

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    Cooper will probably put rutta or schenn in the top 4 ! He will bury sergachev in the depth chart as a 5th or 6th d man
     
  19. HoseEmDown

    HoseEmDown Registered User

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    Gotta keep that next contract down so we can pay Vasilevskiy 10mil.
     
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  20. AlwaysSunnyInTampa

    AlwaysSunnyInTampa LOLZ! This friggin sucks dude!

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    God help us all but I think Coburn is gonna be paired with Hedman next year. Where Sergachev plays in I'm not sure yet. Hedman was good enough to take #1 pairing by this point of his career and that's not entirely common because also look at how he's not by any coincidence a top 5 D in all the world. Heddy struggled at first but eventually got the hang of it and by year 4 got us all saying "OMG!" The guy has always been ahead of everyone. It's why he was a draft day hype train and a "I haven't seen talent like this in years!' kind of prospect. We cannot reasonably expect Sergachev to develop at a similar learning curve. The reason everyone's nuts over McAvoy is because he's channelling Hedman's learning curve and the last one to do it at that level since Karlsson.

    If Sergachev makes the jump to #1 we gotta give him about 50 more games namely to work out his bad habits of turning the puck over. If he does that he should PROBABLY be okay to take more responsibility.

    Serg is gonna be fine. For whatever faults he's still on track to be a #1 pairing D. He won't anchor it but 23 minutes a night and blowing it up on the PP is realistic by the end of next year
     
  21. DFC

    DFC Registered User

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    On Masin, doesn't he have to pass through waivers this year? I can't see him making the team. Hopefully we don't let this become a Richard panik situation.
     
  22. DFC

    DFC Registered User

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    I don't see another Dman blowing it up on the power play while victor Hedman is still here.
     
  23. BeingTheThunder

    BeingTheThunder Registered User

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    I usually agree with most of your takes but I am not really agreeing with this one. I personally do not believe Sergachev will ever be a true #1 on any team with decent talent. Maybe he can become top pairing D man on a team full of scrubs but not a team that has talent and depth. I just don't believe he's got it between the ears.

    Of course, I say that knowing he's really young and has plenty of time to prove me wrong (and I really hope he does prove me wrong) but I just don't think he's got it in him mentally. He's made a lot of mistakes from what I consider to be a lack of poise but I am confident that he will get those cleaned up with experience. However, I've seen him make way to many mental mistakes - the same ones over and over again -for me to feel that confident in his development. When he stops repeating the same mistakes is when we will see where he can take his potential.
     
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  24. AlwaysSunnyInTampa

    AlwaysSunnyInTampa LOLZ! This friggin sucks dude!

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    To be fair I quadrupled down on optimism for my post so you're not far off. But we do agree it comes down to learning from mistakes and limiting them. It's hard to tell what his limits are of he's successful at that. A top pairing guy doesn't feel totally impossible if that happens but it's a long season. But Coburn with Heddy is something I feel confident about happening. Idk who else is going to step up and do it

    Fingers crossed
     
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  25. BeingTheThunder

    BeingTheThunder Registered User

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    I love your optimism..
     

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