Brock
Registered User
Midseason Top 50 for the 2024 NHL Draft
It's time to update my draft board for the 2024 NHL draft now that we're past the halfway point of the OHL season. Back in early November ( ...
ohlprospects.blogspot.com
It's time to update my draft board for the 2024 NHL draft now that we're past the halfway point of the OHL season.
Back in early November (on my preliminary list) I told you that I was having serious difficulty ranking this year's crop outside of Dickinson at #1. I do feel a little better about it all now. I feel pretty good about the players I have ranked in the first three spots. Then I think there's another group at 4 and 5. Then a huge glut of players ranked 6 through about 15 that I truly believe can be ranked in almost any order according to preference. The depth of this group from the OHL is still not amazing. Right now, I'd say the OHL is tracking towards about 30ish players getting selected this year. But we'll see what the second half holds.
A reminder that this list does not include potential re-entry candidates (players already passed over in the draft). Anthony Romani, for example, would easily be on this list and quite high. I do a separate list for them closer to the draft.
Here's my list:
1. Sam Dickinson - Defense - London Knights
Still my number one and I don't see that changing this year. Dickinson has such an easy projection as a pro. While I'm not quite as bullish on his high end upside as some of my scouting peers, I do think that he's a safe bet to be a longtime 20+ minute a night guy who can play in any situation. I've seen names like Noah Dobson and Alex Pietrangelo thrown around a bunch and I just don't think I see that kind of skill and creativity. I think people forget how creative and dominant in transition Pietrangelo was as an OHL defender. Ultimately I see Dickinson more in that Darnell Nurse, Brady Skjej prototype, which holds significant value inside the top 10. Where Dickinson excels for me is in his ability to start the breakout. I love his poise in the face of the forecheck. He trusts his feet and he has great scanning habits. He's just really tough to pin in. The size, mobility, and reach combination will make him a high end defensive player at the NHL level too. Right now he can be too passive at times, especially down low. But as he matures physically, I think he'll eventually become a more than adequate competitor. The point shot is a big offensive weapon for him and his decision making without the puck always stands out as a positive. He picks his spots well to creep up or jump up in the play. Early on in the season, Dickinson was struggling with neutral zone turnovers as he tried to be more of a leader in transition, but he's cut down on those in the last month or so. Although I would argue that he's cut down on those because he has simplified his approach. Whatever NHL team selects Dickinson is going to be very happy adding such a safe and stable presence to their blueline.
2. Liam Greentree - Wing - Windsor Spitfires
The newly named captain of the Spits as an 18 year old, I don't see myself moving off Greentree at #2. I went very in-depth on Greentree for McKeen's recently, with a ton of video, so check that out if you want more on him (found here). In a nutshell, Greentree reminds me a lot of Jason Robertson at the same age. Big shot. Great puck protection tendencies. High level of skill and creativity. Great awareness and vision for a power winger. But also a need to improve his quickness and a need to improve the consistency of his two-way game. I think a lot of Greentree's skating deficiencies can be fixed with an emphasis on strength training and power skating the way that Robertson's were. I still see a lot of rankings with Greentree outside of the top 20 and I just can't understand it. Players like him; big wingers with skill and offensive upside, do not grow on trees. I really hope Greentree has a fantastic U18's for Canada in April (which seems like an inevitability given Windsor's spot in the standings) and rockets up lists to where he deserves to be placed.
3. Zayne Parekh - Defense - Saginaw Spirit
Oh boy Zayne Parekh. I mean, how can you argue with the way he's producing right now? He could end up having a draft year for the ages. The sad thing is, it wouldn't matter how many points Parekh puts up, I'm going to guess that there are some NHL scouts and executives out there who have already made up their mind about him as a draft prospect. There's going to be a lot of worry that he's more of a Ryan Murphy type who has difficulty defending at the pro level and who has difficulty replicating his offensive success at the NHL level. They're similar kind of skaters too, with elite overall mobility and edgework, but only average quickness for their size. I saw a lot of Ryan Murphy. I think that's where the comparison ends. Parekh is just such a highly intelligent offensive player. He has that "IT" factor. He's so creative; crafty. Rarely do you see him get boxed in...in any zone. He doesn't force plays very often though. While he's certainly a high risk player, more often than not it's high reward. For someone who plays like he does, he does such a good job of limiting his turnovers and his poor pinches. I get the defensive concerns. There are times where he cheats for offense. There are times where he looks disengaged physically. But there are others where he shows a really strong stick and anticipation to shut down plays. He's a unicorn. There haven't been many prospects to come through the CHL like Parekh in recent years and that's why his projection is scary. Saginaw's free flowing system also makes it difficult for scouts to imagine him fitting within their team's system. We heard the same stuff about Pavel Mintyukov in his draft year and I'd say that's working out pretty well for Anaheim right now. Would I draft Parekh in the lottery? Maybe, but there are many other high end defenders this year with more projectable physical tools. But once those players are gone, you just have to bank on Parekh's upside. The reality is that this year's OHL playoffs will make or break Parekh's draft stock...whether that is fair or not. He's going to continue to rip up the regular season. But what will he perform like with all eyes on Saginaw as Memorial Cup hosts? What will he defend like in the playoffs? The pressure on him will be enormous.
4. Beckett Sennecke - Wing - Oshawa Generals
Another guy that I did I deep dive on for McKeen's recently (found here). I think what people need to realize about Sennecke is that he's experienced a massive growth spurt since entering the OHL. He was drafted by Oshawa at 5'10 and is now listed at 6'3 and still growing (Mom was a Canadian national volleyball player). I think this has had a negative impact on his conditioning and it helps to explain the swings of inconsistency we've seen from him this year. I saw something the other day (apologies to the author whom I can't remember) that stated the majority of great junior players are early maturers, where as the majority of great NHL players are later maturers. NHL teams are on to this and they're targeting athletic guys like Sennecke who are still growing into their frames. As he gets stronger, expect the accurary and release of his heavy shot to improve. As he gets stronger, expect the consistency of his off puck play to improve. As he gets stronger, expect his first step quickness to improve to match his excellent agility, edgework, and top speed. When all that happens, he's going to be better equipped to take advantage of his high IQ and skill. I really like Sennecke as a first round pick because I see a ton of possible outcomes for him and all of them make him a useful NHL player in some capacity. There's upside, but there's also a solid floor that could make him an Alex Killorn type.
5. Jett Luchanko - Center - Guelph Storm
I recently posted the preliminary media/scout poll for 2024 and I was actually quite shocked to see how many of my contemporaries had Luchanko outside of the top ten. This tells me that he's being massively undervalued in the amateur scouting community right now. He's transformed himself from an excellent high energy checker as a rookie to a dynamic playmaker and offensive catalyst as a sophomore. Matt Poitras making the NHL this year had to have been such a blow to the psyche of Guelph players to start the year, but Luchanko was like "hold on, I got you." I love to see that from a younger player, stepping up to put a team on his back. Luchanko's got the speed, the tenacity, the skill, and the IQ to be a top six center at the NHL level. He's also a committed two-way player and has kept up the strong off puck play that he exhibited last year, despite being counted upon to be an offensive play driver. Really the only two things missing from Luchanko's game is a high end shot (it's a weakness) and strength to win battles consistently. He can be easily pushed off the puck/knocked off stride. But what I love is that it doesn't deter him from trying to work between the dots. He's like Thomas the Tank Engine. Once the strength and conditioning improves, he's going to be even more dangerous because we'll see him playing through contact.
6. Lukas Fischer - Defense - Sarnia Sting
This is all about projection and upside. Right now, there's no question that Fischer is NOT the 6th best player from Ontario in the draft. He might not even be in the top 20 of that list. But, I'm still of the belief that Fischer can be one of the best defenders from this class when all is said and done. The physical tools are just so projectable. You've got a 6'3, 170lbs defender (and still growing since brother and Dad are much larger) who skates really well and flashes upside at both ends. What if Fischer ends up being 6'4, 220lbs with his mobility? That's a potentially elite shutdown defender at the next level. The thing holding him back right now in the OHL is a lack of aggressiveness. He's just too passive currently. He gives up space too easily to attacking forwards. With his reach and mobility, he should be bringing the fight to attackers by stepping up earlier, or by closing off lanes with his body. But instead, he gets beat off the rush, especially in transition. I think it's a mindset that will be fixed with more experience and added strength. Because there are times where that isn't the case and it's damn impressive. There are times where he dominates down low. Playing on a rebuilding Sarnia team means that his flaws are going to be magnified without being surrounded by other high end, experienced players. Offensively, I do see upside. Not Norris winning upside. But he's skilled enough to quarterback a powerplay at this level and he can start the breakout effectively and be a transition leader. Even then, with his pedigree, I'm just really excited to see how the perception of his ceiling shifts as he fills out. Even if it's just one event, I'm really curious to see how Fischer plays in this year's Top Prospect's Game.
7. Henry Mews - Defense - Ottawa 67's
Honestly, I still don't know what to make of Mews and I've talked to several others who are in the same boat (this was evident in my aforementioned media/scout poll). The offensive production has been trending way up. I do think he has offensive upside because of his high end skating ability and penchant for being a difference maker in transition. Yet, I'm just not sure how everything comes together as a pro. The consistency of his decision making scares me. On one shift, he'll make a really intelligent read with the puck to help set up a scoring chance. On another shift, he'll make a poor one that leads to a turnover. The same can be said of his defensive game. On one shift, he'll make a great defensive play in transition, stepping up aggressively to close a gap, or a great read with his stick to force a turnover. On another, he'll completely blow a defensive assignment leading to a goal. The thing is, I know that consistency has kind of been the issue for Mews dating back to his U16 year. I wish there was more growth there. If all these kinks get ironed out, Mews is a potential difference maker in the NHL. If they don't, he likely ends up being more of a tweener. For me, I think his performance in this year's OHL playoffs are going to be critical for my final opinion. Ottawa is going to need him to come up big, even with the addition of Samuel Mayer.
8. Carter George - Goaltender - Owen Sound Attack
Sometimes stats do tell the story. Carter George - .910%. Corbin Votary - .859%. Now Votary hasn't been great this year, but it also tells you how many prime scoring opportunities the Attack defense is giving up this year. And how often George is making great saves to keep his team in games. I just love George's vision and play reading ability. He's already very technically sound. He fights for sight lines. He controls his rebounds to limit second chance opportunities. He's aggressive in challenging shooters to make his 6'1 frame seem bigger. The mental makeup and compete are really solid. Are NHL teams going to wish George was a little quicker in the crease given his lack of size? Absolutely. But, that can be improved. If it doesn't, it probably limits George's upside and prevents him from being an NHL starter. But in a year that looks extremely weak for goaltenders in the draft, George is unquestionably my top netminder (overall) right now. It looks like NHL Central Scouting agrees with me too.
9. Luke Misa - Center/Wing - Mississauga Steelheads
I get the reservations from some in the scouting community regarding Misa. Conversely, I get those who really, really like him. That's sort of a runaround way of saying that I fall somewhere in the middle. I love the speed. Misa is one of the quickest players in the OHL. He's truly dynamic. What I like about his game this year is that he's become less reliant on it to create offense. He's moving better without the puck, has become more inside focused, and has improved his shot to become more of a dual threat. Of course, Misa is also a competitive forechecker and someone who projects to be a high quality penalty killer at the next level. At times this year, I've actually liked him better on the wing and that could ultimately be where he ends up as a pro, to simplify his game and take advantage of his quickness. I say all this, yet I just have reservations about his overall skill level/creativity and how his offensive game transitions to the NHL level. I've seen Mississauga the most of any team this year. Porter Martone (eligible next year) routinely pops off and passes the eye test as a play driver. Misa I don't think has the same ability to problem solve his way out of traffic when his speed advantage is neutralized. Yet, I still have him 9th because I like his chances of being a longtime NHL pro. At the very least, I think Misa can have a similar career to the one Michael McLeod is having in Jersey. And at the very best, he's probably a solid middle six option like an Andreas Athanasiou.
10. Gabriel Frasca - Center/Wing - Kingston Frontenacs
An offseason shoulder injury forced Frasca to the sidelines to start the year, but he's been quite solid since returning. The numbers aren't going to pop off the page at you. They're lower than some of the other Kingston draft prospects like Thibodeau and Battaglia. Yet, I really like what I've seen from Frasca this year. I think the attention to detail in his game gives him a really solid projection as a pro. Frasca is a highly intelligent player who can be highly effective in all three zones. The skating is solid (easily the best of the Frasca brothers). His bread and butter moving forward might actually be his shot. I think he has one of the best shots in this Ontario draft class. His scoring upside is excellent. Is his game more tailored for the wing where he can be a complementary piece? I think that remains to be seen. I'd like to see him drive the play more with the puck on his stick, especially when he's at center and leading the charge in transition. I'm always inclined to bank on high IQ players and Frasca is no different. No offense meant to Kingston, who want to make a nice run in this year's playoffs, but I'd love to see Frasca at the U18's in April.
11. Sam O'Reilly
12. Cole Beaudoin
13. Ryerson Leenders
14. Marek Vanacker
15. Ben Danford
16. Jakub Fibigr
17. Luca Testa
18. Jacob Battaglia
19. Luca Marrelli
20. Kieron Walton
21. Nathan Villeneuve
22. Kevin He
23. Chris Thibodeau
24. Anthony Cristoforo
25. Riley Patterson
See the link for full write ups and the full top 50.
As always, happy to answer any questions.
