Middle Career guys and chances for the HHOF

[Blades of Glory]

With Heatley, it's not even about being a complete player. My biggest issue with him has nothing to do with his defense. Sure, by all accounts, he is defense-less, no pun intended. But for a winger with Heatley's offensive capabilities, a lack of defensive prowess is fairly irrelevant. Considering his contemporaries in production, as a winger, since the lockout are Alex Ovechkin and Ilya Kovalchuk, you should probably have a good idea of what to expect from Heatley defensively. Virtually nothing would be the correct expectation with all three of them, although they all have shown the ability to make a defensive play or two when they absolutely must. Coming into this year, Ovechkin (269), Kovalchuk (230), and Heatley (219) were the only 3 players in the league with over 200 goals since the lockout. I do not care about Heatley's defense, honestly. All I want him to do is be a one-zone player, and that zone is nowhere near the Sharks' net.

Heatley has one of the most impressive all-around offensive skillsets that I have ever seen in a winger. Unlike most elite goal-scoring wingers, Heatley can play the role of playmaker as well as shooter. If I remember correctly, his consecutive 50-50-100 seasons put him in very exclusive company in terms of those wingers who have ever done it. His presence on one of Joe Thornton's wings last year was a major reason that Patrick Marleau was able to score a career-high 44 goals and partially why Thornton finally broke out in the playoffs against Detroit, in a very big way at that. But at the same time, his floating around the offensive zone is maddening. I mean, Jesus, he is being paid 7.5M for one reason, and one reason only, and that is for what he does in one zone. I used to see the Brett Hull comparisons, but Heatley's once-lethal shot, especially his one-timer, have not really joined him in San Jose. It's just so frustrating. But truthfully, I won't judge him until the playoffs. For someone that played with a torn groin muscle, Heatley performed pretty well in last year's playoffs. He was very solid against Detroit, giving some much-needed support to Joe Thornton, who was eating Pavel Datsyuk for lunch and trying to awaken Patrick Marleau from his spectacular cold streak at the same time.

 

[Big Phil]

Ever since the HHOF admitted Bernie Federko, anyone....literally anyone who plays NHL hockey long enough...has a chance.

To recap Federko: 0 cups, 0 awards

1130 pts in 1000 games.

He isn't the only player in the HHOF without a major award or a Cup

1 -40 goal season and 4-100 pt seasons in an era (1980's) where 100 pt seasons were dime a dozen.

To be fair, instead of looking at "100 point seasons in the 1980s as being easy" you should look closer and examine how well Federko compared to his peers. Here are his top 10 scoring finishes:

8, 9, 9, 9, 10

Not bad, and he certainly doesn't look out of place among certain HHOFers. He just didn't have the high water seasons where he was 3rd in scoring or whatnot. Not to mention he once held a record of 10 straight years of 50+ assists which were almost always more than 60. He was deceptively consistent in his career. We just don't see him as a Cup champion (although he was pretty good in the playoffs) and he never won a major award or represented Canada in the Canada Cups. Federko was commonly a top 10 scorer in the NHL, he just played on a team that never got the good press.

That isn't to say that there aren't knocks on him as a HHOFer, but he certainly has some pros that often get ignored.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

Ok people lets be reasonable, the NHL was ready to induct Crosby in 2004, im pretty sure the youngest scoring champ in NA sports history/ youngest captain in nhl history/youngest captain to win a cup/ the man who scored the golden goal/ 2nd youngest mvp winner behind gretzky/ youngest 100 pt scorer in nhl history could never play another game and get in no problem.

 

[BubbaBoot]

How are Kaberle and McCabe probably, while Hossa, Richards, Boyle and St. Louis are not?

How is Selanne a probably?

How is Redden going to do it from the AHL?

I didn't say Kaberle and McCabe were probables....you did.

May have jumped the gun with Hossa, he is just 32 yrs old.

Richards has intangibles but averaging 20 goals and 70 pts a year...he's also a career -70. He's good but those ain't HOF stats.

Boyle, I just don't know....good offensive numbers....for a defenseman. Had the bad luck of playing on some crappy teams.

St. Louis I really like but he's 35 yrs old with but 750 pts. His playoff numbers a plus. Like I said, let's see how the rest of his career goes.

Selanne? He's a freaking scoring machine and has been doing it for 18 seasons. He has 16 seasons of 20+ goals / 9 seasons of 30+ / 7 seasons of 40+ / 3 seasons of 50+ / a 72 goal season.....he's averaging over 35 goals/yr for his career. He's had only 2 years of under 20 goals and one of them he scored 12 in just 26 games played.
At 40 he's still productive. In the last 10 years he's 7th at averaging goals per game, (when the vast majority of his peers have dropped off precipitously and/or long retired). Are you serious?

Redden has dropped off in a stunning manner. While he's only 32, the injuries seem to have taken their toll....too bad. Yet, there have been more than 1 HOFer who finished their careers in the minors. Stranger things have happened.

 

[RabbinsDuck]

Not sure if anything stranger than Redden being inducted into the Hall of Fame has happened. That's a Twighlight episode there.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Not sure if anything stranger than Redden being inducted into the Hall of Fame has happened. That's a Twighlight episode there.

Yeah... Given the fact that someone like Doug Wilson is on the outside looking in.... yeah, Wade has no chance. Gary Sutter is closer to the HHOF than Redden and I don't think he's even close.

 

[Blades of Glory]

Dan Boyle has played on some crappy teams? Are you referring to his early days in Florida, which are completely irreleant? In his 5 full seasons with Tampa Bay, he was a part of 2 Division Champions, was in the playoffs 4 times, and won a Stanley Cup. Boyle is now in his third season with the Sharks. The Sharks averaged 115 points, 52 wins, and were the #1 seed in the West in both of his first two seasons. Nothing too different about this year, either. He is easily the second-most important player on the team behind Joe Thornton, and honestly, if you ask your average Sharks fan, they will tell you that there is a better chance of winning without Thornton than without Boyle. He plays incredibly heavy minutes against the top forwards of opposing teams, and he has shown an ability to frustrate certain star forwards with his play. Alex Ovechkin comes to mind. Boyle was a key defenseman on a Stanley Cup champion and had 14 points in 15 playoff games for the Sharks' last year. If you watched the Olympics, you know what he brings to the table in big games.

Boyle is a far, far superior defenseman than either Tomas Kaberle or Bryan McCabe. Is he a Hall of Famer? No, of course not. Barring an incredible close to his career, of course. But to illustrate how much better he is than Kaberle and McCabe, let's just say that if they are probables, Boyle is a lock. As it happens, neither of those claims are true. But with two Second Team All-Star berths, three top six Norris finishes in the past 4 years, and playing 26 minutes a night for one of the best teams in the league, Boyle has long passed the Kaberle/McCabe threshold. Those two defenseman have combined for a grand total of one top ten finish in Norris voting, 0 postseason All-Star teams, minute playoff success, and are far less effective defensemen at ES than they are on the PP.

 

[Stephen]

With Heatley, it's not even about being a complete player. My biggest issue with him has nothing to do with his defense. Sure, by all accounts, he is defense-less, no pun intended. But for a winger with Heatley's offensive capabilities, a lack of defensive prowess is fairly irrelevant. Considering his contemporaries in production, as a winger, since the lockout are Alex Ovechkin and Ilya Kovalchuk, you should probably have a good idea of what to expect from Heatley defensively. Virtually nothing would be the correct expectation with all three of them, although they all have shown the ability to make a defensive play or two when they absolutely must. Coming into this year, Ovechkin (269), Kovalchuk (230), and Heatley (219) were the only 3 players in the league with over 200 goals since the lockout. I do not care about Heatley's defense, honestly. All I want him to do is be a one-zone player, and that zone is nowhere near the Sharks' net.

Heatley has one of the most impressive all-around offensive skillsets that I have ever seen in a winger. Unlike most elite goal-scoring wingers, Heatley can play the role of playmaker as well as shooter. If I remember correctly, his consecutive 50-50-100 seasons put him in very exclusive company in terms of those wingers who have ever done it. His presence on one of Joe Thornton's wings last year was a major reason that Patrick Marleau was able to score a career-high 44 goals and partially why Thornton finally broke out in the playoffs against Detroit, in a very big way at that. But at the same time, his floating around the offensive zone is maddening. I mean, Jesus, he is being paid 7.5M for one reason, and one reason only, and that is for what he does in one zone. I used to see the Brett Hull comparisons, but Heatley's once-lethal shot, especially his one-timer, have not really joined him in San Jose. It's just so frustrating. But truthfully, I won't judge him until the playoffs. For someone that played with a torn groin muscle, Heatley performed pretty well in last year's playoffs. He was very solid against Detroit, giving some much-needed support to Joe Thornton, who was eating Pavel Datsyuk for lunch and trying to awaken Patrick Marleau from his spectacular cold streak at the same time.

Sometimes I can't help but think of Heatley as such a wasted talent. I know he's had some fantastic years in the league and whatnot, but when he first broke in, man, the way he was scoring in Atlanta and tearing up the All-Star game as a rookie, you would have figured he would have been part of some Crosby/Toews level team success at some point in his mid 20s. Whatever happened to those power forward projections, comparisons to being a better John Leclair, etc? Just seems like he could have or should have been so much more.

http://www.jockbio.com/Bios/Heatley/Heatley_bio.html

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Dan Boyle has played on some crappy teams? Are you referring to his early days in Florida, which are completely irreleant? In his 5 full seasons with Tampa Bay, he was a part of 2 Division Champions, was in the playoffs 4 times, and won a Stanley Cup. Boyle is now in his third season with the Sharks. The Sharks averaged 115 points, 52 wins, and were the #1 seed in the West in both of his first two seasons. Nothing too different about this year, either. He is easily the second-most important player on the team behind Joe Thornton, and honestly, if you ask your average Sharks fan, they will tell you that there is a better chance of winning without Thornton than without Boyle. He plays incredibly heavy minutes against the top forwards of opposing teams, and he has shown an ability to frustrate certain star forwards with his play. Alex Ovechkin comes to mind. Boyle was a key defenseman on a Stanley Cup champion and had 14 points in 15 playoff games for the Sharks' last year. If you watched the Olympics, you know what he brings to the table in big games.

Boyle is a far, far superior defenseman than either Tomas Kaberle or Bryan McCabe. Is he a Hall of Famer? No, of course not. Barring an incredible close to his career, of course. But to illustrate how much better he is than Kaberle and McCabe, let's just say that if they are probables, Boyle is a lock. As it happens, neither of those claims are true. But with two Second Team All-Star berths, three top six Norris finishes in the past 4 years, and playing 26 minutes a night for one of the best teams in the league, Boyle has long passed the Kaberle/McCabe threshold. Those two defenseman have combined for a grand total of one top ten finish in Norris voting, 0 postseason All-Star teams, minute playoff success, and are far less effective defensemen at ES than they are on the PP.

Believe me, I agree. I thought all the naysaying about Boyle would go away when he was chosen to play in the Olympics because he was better defensively than Mike Green.

A few years ago, I actually thought Boyle was on his way to a borderline HHOF career. Now.... I highly doubt he'll do enough before the end to get in. But like you said, way ahead of Kaberle or McCabe.

 

[BubbaBoot]

Smyth - probably not WTF???
Arnott - probably not WTF???
Gagne - probably not WTF???
Hejduk - probably not...but I'm still curious to see how his career plays out. NO
Jokinen - probably not WTF???
Rolston - probably not WTF???
Knuble - probably not WTF???

Lot of these guys are the "intangibles" guys.
While that doesn't mean much to many voters they have had respectable good to very good numbers over an extended period of time.

Smyth - has numbers similar to St. Louis. He's spent his career going to the front of the net. 11 years of 20+ goals/yr. He's 34 yrs old andmay have a few more good years left.
Arnott - he's 17 yrs in / 12 years of 20+ goals/yr (and 2 19 goal seasons. 900 pts total. He's another guy who gets his nose dirty.
Gagne - is only 30 yrs and has 7 20+ goals/season, including a couple of 40+ He's right behind Selanne in goals per game average over the last decade.
Jokinen - has dropped off recently but still has had a respectable enough career. He's only 32.
Rolston and Knuble I just like. I watched them for an extended period of time when they were Bruins and they do a lot of things that don't show up on the score sheet.
Rolston - Is an ace PK artist who's 2nd only to St. Louis with SHG goals over the last decade. He's 16 yrs in and has 7 yrs of 20+ goals/season despite spending the vast majority of his career with defensive oriented teams.
Knuble is a personal favorite. A guy every team needs. A guy who is great in the corners and going to the front of the net. A guy who really didn't get a chance to play extended minutes until he was 30 yrs old, and then ripped off 7 straight yeras of 20+ goals/season

Regehr - probably not....but a damn fine career LOL
Rafalski - probably not....but a damn fine career LOL
Kaberle - possibly.....let's see how the rest of his career plays out. Lol
Phaneuf - possibly, let's see how the next 4 - 5 yrs play out LOL
Gonchar - probably not....but a damn fine career No
Rafalski - probably not....but a damn fine career LOL
Redden - could go either way...a Stanley Cup would help Could go either way? ROFL
Duncan - possibly, let's see how the next 4 - 5 yrs play out No
McCabe - probably not, but a damn fine career LOL

WTF for forwards and LOL for defensemen? You find decent defensemen funny? I don't get it....

Regher - is as fine and steady a defensive defensman that there's been in the last 20 years.....he's underrated IMO I never understood the hate towards him.
Gonchar is 23rd AL-TIME with pts for a defenseman, 2nd active behind only Lidstrom. 19th in EVEN strength goals ALL-TIME, (2nd active). 14th in goals/game average ALL-TIME (First active). 17th in shooting percentage ALL-TIME (3rd active). That's fairly impressive, eh? Nah, he's a joke.
Rafalski - has over 500 pts total and is a +181...tyat ain't a laugher.
Kaberle - is only 32 and is #6 active in pts / #5 active in assists / 520 pt total....he's a helluva a passer and a PP specialist.....liek I said, lets see how he plays out. No laughing matter either.
Phaneuf - is only 25 fercrissakes. He's big, strong and a leader....you're laughing him off already?
Redden - dropped off a lot. He's only 32 but I think the injuries are stopping him. decent career up to a couple of years ago.
Duncan - My mistake, I meant Duncan Keith....skys the limit for the kid....the same for his mate Brent Seabrook.
McCabe - 15 yrs in and still doing big minutes. 523 total pts and was a PP stud for a while. As tough and gritty defenseman as there is out there. You really think his career is a laugher?

I also think Jovanovski has had a good career (HA-HA?) Mike Green is only 25 and could be a pretty good one also (YUK-YUK?)

And WTF does gafasfafdsd mean anyways?

 

[Blades of Glory]

Sometimes I can't help but think of Heatley as such a wasted talent. I know he's had some fantastic years in the league and whatnot, but when he first broke in, man, the way he was scoring in Atlanta and tearing up the All-Star game as a rookie, you would have figured he would have been part of some Crosby/Toews level team success at some point in his mid 20s. Whatever happened to those power forward projections, comparisons to being a better John Leclair, etc? Just seems like he could have or should have been so much more.

http://www.jockbio.com/Bios/Heatley/Heatley_bio.html

The power forward comparisons were unrealistic and just a result of Heatley being drafted into the NHL during the peak of it's power forward era. Todd Bertuzzi, Jarome Iginla, and Joe Thornton were showing Art Ross-caliber offensive ability and the physical game of an elite power forward. Thornton during 2002-03 was the last truly elite power forward in the NHL. The difference between Heatley and the true power forward prospects like Bertuzzi and Thornton was size. Heatley is certainly not small at 6'4, 220, but he never had close to the body type to play the physical, very contact-oriented, game that one would expect him to if they compared him to John Leclair. There is being big and there is being a giant. Heatley is big. Thornton and most power forwards were giants.

No disrespect to John Leclair, who I have great respect for, but Heatley, even with all his shortcomings, turned into a far more dynamic and dangerous player than Leclair ever was. Even when he doesn't seem to be motivated and floats around, Heatley is so talented that he still will pot 40 goals and look bored in the process. For the record, I really do think the car accident changed Heatley, as you would expect something so traumatic to do to any 23 year old kid. He lost that aspect of fearlessness that he seemed to show early on in Atlanta. Some players lose certain traits because of injuries, like Joe Thornton's power forward days ended when Lindros broke his jaw in that fight. Heatley had a far more serious incident. I remember his smile at the ASG after scoring 4 goals, and I can tell you that he doesn't seem to enjoy hockey as much as he did then. Understandable. But he still has time to put it together.

 

[jcbio11]

Hossa should be in. He's got a Cup now as well. Plus add the fact that he's a defensively responsible winger who back checks fiercely (very unlike many other high scoring wingers) and he's in.

Ovechkin - he should not even be in this discussion. He's a lock already. He absolutely does not need another 2 or 3 years of productivity like some of you mention.

edit -

I see Crosby's name in this thread as well. Just like Ovechkin, he's a lock already. Even if this concussion ends his career today and he doesn't play another game or comes back as a shell of his former self, he's still in.

 

[Big Phil]

Dan Boyle is an interesting case. When examining the Olympic team last year I commented that Boyle has a shot at the HHOF. Somehow, someway I figure San Jose can get off their keester and win. If that ever happens you'd think Boyle would be part of it. He's been a late bloomer. I won't comment on him yet.

Back in the 2005-'06 season I once openly talked about Redden being a potential HHOFer. It sounds funny now, but at that time he was 28, Ottawa looked poised to win some Cups, Redden was on the Olympic team and you got the feeling he could play even better. Well, that went down the toilet. By 2008 Redden was washed up and even then the NYR gave him a truck full of money. Got to love a GM that not only made the worst trade in history but hands money out like crackers. Redden has done nothing to show he is a HHOFer. He will do nothing in the future either.

 

[kmad]

Definitely:
Nicklas Lidstrom
Teemu Selanne
Chris Pronger
Alexander Ovechkin
Sidney Crosby
Jarome Iginla
Joe Thornton
Martin Brodeur
Mike Modano

Probable: (counting on a linear career path)
Ilya Kovalchuk
Pavel Datsyuk
Zdeno Chara
Eric Staal
Steven Stamkos
Henrik Lundqvist
Ryan Getzlaf
Zach Parise

Possible: (would need to improve their resume)
Martin St. Louis
Marian Hossa
Daniel Alfredsson
Dany Heatley
Henrik Zetterberg
Daniel Sedin
Henrik Sedin
Evgeni Malkin
Rick Nash
Roberto Luongo
Mike Richards
Marc-Andre Fleury

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

The day Jason Arnott goes in the Hall they rename it "Hall of the sort of decent" and I'm gonna be there to lobby for Ray Sheppard.

 

[kmad]

You really think his career is a laugher?

I also think Jovanovski has had a good career (HA-HA?) Mike Green is only 25 and could be a pretty good one also (YUK-YUK?)

And WTF does gafasfafdsd mean anyways?

Their careers aren't laughers. They're just not hall of fame players. Mike Knuble and Brian Rolston? Are you serious? Sorry...

 

[tarheelhockey]

I agree nearly 100% with Bolt Vanderhuge's list above.

 

[jcbio11]

Definitely:
Nicklas Lidstrom
Teemu Selanne
Chris Pronger
Alexander Ovechkin
Sidney Crosby
Jarome Iginla
Joe Thornton
Martin Brodeur
Mike Modano

Probable: (counting on a linear career path)
Ilya Kovalchuk
Pavel Datsyuk
Zdeno Chara
Eric Staal
Steven Stamkos
Henrik Lundqvist
Ryan Getzlaf
Zach Parise

Possible: (would need to improve their resume)
Martin St. Louis
Marian Hossa
Daniel Alfredsson
Dany Heatley
Henrik Zetterberg
Daniel Sedin
Henrik Sedin
Evgeni Malkin
Rick Nash
Roberto Luongo
Mike Richards
Marc-Andre Fleury

A very good list overall. I agree with most of your selections. I'd move a few around, but overall, you're spot on.

May I ask why you have Marc-Andre Fleury on the list? When I look at his resume, nothing really screams HHOF goalie at me. Solid goalie, sure, HHOF, no.

 

[kmad]

May I ask why you have Marc-Andre Fleury on the list? When I look at his resume, nothing really screams HHOF goalie at me. Solid goalie, sure, HHOF, no.

Stanley Cup, Olympic Gold, and the potential to amass a ton of wins by virtue of playing with Sidney Crosby. He's got the potential to play as a top 5 goalie, and he has a lot of time left to do it.

 

[Blades of Glory]

The day Jason Arnott goes in the Hall they rename it "Hall of the sort of decent" and I'm gonna be there to lobby for Ray Sheppard.

On the list of players to score a Cup-winning OT goal in the last half-century, Jason Arnott ranks close to the bottom. Orr, Hull, Richard, Lemaire, Kane, Arnott, Nystrom, and Krupp. Arnott is closer to Nystrom than Kane. When that is your greatest accomplishment, you're not going anywhere near the Hall.

 

[unknown33]

You really think his career is a laugher?

It's a laugher that ANY of those player is even mentioned in a HHOF thread.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I'm curious to see what the History of Hockey's opinion is on the chances of Patrik Elias getting in.

He was the most prolific playoff performer of the decade and was a key offensive cog on two championship teams and a deep SCF run. Was a 1st team All-Star and had five +PPG seasons (three during the dead puck era). Won a bronze medal and is the 2nd highest scoring Czech of all time. Also #1 all time in OT winning goals.

He'll have his number retired for sure, but what would he need to get into the hall? +1100 career points? More PPG seasons? A Conn Smythe?

 

[JaymzB]

May I ask why you have Marc-Andre Fleury on the list? When I look at his resume, nothing really screams HHOF goalie at me. Solid goalie, sure, HHOF, no.

Thing with MAF is...he's still so young. Of the 6 goalies who had more wins than him at his age (26), only 1 (Tom Barrasso) isn't in the HOF. So, I think adding MAF as a "Possible" is quite fair. He still needs to add to his resume, but he's on track to have a chance at least.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

Definitely:
Nicklas Lidstrom
Teemu Selanne
Chris Pronger
Alexander Ovechkin
Sidney Crosby
Jarome Iginla
Joe Thornton
Martin Brodeur
Mike Modano

Probable: (counting on a linear career path)
Ilya Kovalchuk
Pavel Datsyuk
Zdeno Chara
Eric Staal
Steven Stamkos
Henrik Lundqvist
Ryan Getzlaf
Zach Parise

Possible: (would need to improve their resume)
Martin St. Louis
Marian Hossa
Daniel Alfredsson
Dany Heatley
Henrik Zetterberg
Daniel Sedin
Henrik Sedin
Evgeni Malkin
Rick Nash
Roberto Luongo
Mike Richards
Marc-Andre Fleury

Probable Stamkos and possible St louis???? seriously? St louis is a hart winner, art ross winner, stanley cup winner, world cup winner....stamkos tied for 1 rocket richard and is 20 years old.

I know stamkos will probably have a great career filled with awards worth of the hof but you cannot call him probable at this point. I'd also say st louis is a lock or close to it.

Also, I know not many people like to admit it but Malkin is on his way to the hall too. An art ross, a stanley cup, a calder, and a conn smythe and a runner up for the hart. And hes still young. If you are going by linear career paths malkin in on a better pace than stamkos with the cup and the con smythe for sure.

 

[kmad]

Probable Stamkos and possible St louis???? seriously? St louis is a hart winner, art ross winner, stanley cup winner, world cup winner....stamkos tied for 1 rocket richard and is 20 years old.

I doubt Stamkos is going to fall off of this pace.

Marty is great, and if he became a world beater at a younger age he'd be a lock, but he doesn't have enough great seasons piled on yet to be a lock for the hall. Like Tim Thomas in that regard.