Middle Career guys and chances for the HHOF

Discussion in 'The History of Hockey' started by Hardyvan123, Mar 5, 2011.

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  1. Hardyvan123

    Hardyvan123 [email protected]

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    I was thinking of this the other day listening to Doug MacLean talk about Rick Nash.

    What players in mid career guys like Rick Nash, Eric Stall and Danny Heatley and their chances for the hall (given some projections and what they might have to do to get them over the top or what might keep them out).

    Personally I have stall at 70%, Nash and Heater slightly below that mark.

    Any thought and/or comments?
     
  2. Blades of Glory

    Blades of Glory Troll Captain

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    Eric Staal has a legitimate chance to be in the HHOF provided he stays healthy and continues to produce over the next 5-7 years like he has in the previous 5. His playoff resume is already outstanding.

    Heatley is an interesting case. All it comes down to is if he can put together a strong playoff career in the next few years. Right now, he falls short. Plus, he will likely face a lot of voters who dislike him, so his career accomplishments must be overwhelming, which they are currently not.

    Rick Nash has done nothing to suggest that he will turn into a HOF-caliber player. He has a few impressive goal-scoring seasons, and nothing else.
     
  3. Breakfast of Champs

    Breakfast of Champs Registered User

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    Yea Eric has a cup and a gold medal and hes still young. He was also the top scorer of those playoffs when the canes won and I think he was the 2nd youngest player to ever lead the playoffs in scoring behind howe. Nash is a fantastic player who still has lots in the tank IMO. If he is ever on a good team i think he has 50 goal potential...but its probably gonna come down to if he ever wins a cup
     
  4. Epsilon

    Epsilon #basta

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    Can you tell me what I'm going to make for breakfast tomorrow morning? Because I came into the thread to make basically this exact post.
     
  5. Hardyvan123

    Hardyvan123 [email protected]

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    heater is the oldest but does have 6 seasons in the top 10 in goal scoring and a decent playoff record and a great international one fro Canada but if he can't regain a bit of his touch (which he has recently) then it will be tough sledding for him.

    He definitely needs to age better than he has this season so far.

    Nash I think has been a bit underrated, although he needs to have some playoff success (ie. more than jsut 4 games in the 2nd half of his career) to make his chances better.

    Stall has the best chance and the best resume so far given his age.
     
  6. Sens Rule

    Sens Rule Registered User

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    Nash won't make it if he stays in Columbus, unless Columbus really, really turn into a contender for years on end. He is buried there. He could have HHOF potential but he has done nothing to lift his team up in many seasons.

    Stall is in if he continues his strong play.

    Heatley - Well he has the offence, and the numbers but has several very black marks against him. He has to stay very good for many more seasons and bring the Sharks to the final with a strong playoff, and have a couple of at least 40 goal seasons. Just accumulating 30 goal 70 point seasons and boosting his career numbers for another half dozen years will not cut it for him.
     
  7. Big Phil

    Big Phil Registered User

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    Nash has no chance as it stands. True he may be saddled with a bad team but after about a decade you figure the team could build around you for now. I've just never been sold on him as a great player. I wasn't when he went 1st overall in 2002 and I still am not. He led the NHL in goals once with 41. Yet he had only 57 points that year. As sad as that is, it might be the most prolific thing he's done in the NHL so far.

    Heatley is a guy that I thought had the earmarks of a future Hall of Famer to him from day one. After 2007 he had his second 50 goal 100+ point season and led the playoffs in scoring. Then a couple of so-so seasons and then the trade to San Jose. This year he hasn't been himself and he's only turning 30. Surely he isn't on the decline already is he? I think when all is said and done Heatley will need a lot more than just borderline credentials to get in. The reason I say that is because he's left two teams in the dust. The "accident" in 2003 is a bad thing to bring up but that won't help his cause. Even worse is the way he left Ottawa. He meant to do that as oppose to the accident.

    Staal is a good example of a player who is revered around the NHL. He has been since the lockout. He's been more revered than Heatley and far more revered than Nash. Out of the three Staal is the most talented individual capable of carrying a team on his back. He is a guy who is commonly mentioned among the top 10 players. The other two aren't. Staal is too fine of a player in my mind to miss out on the Hall of Fame. Alas, there is a lot of hockey to be played so we'll have to see what else he does. But a true calling card for a Hall of Famer is asking yourself if you ever felt that such player was a "future HHOFer" when you watched him play. I believe we are witnessing that with Staal right now.
     
  8. Epsilon

    Epsilon #basta

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    Heatley should have to clearly surpass standard statistical thresholds at the very least to even be considered. I'm not sure I can think of any prospective HOF candidate with worse personal baggage.
     
  9. TheMoreYouKnow

    TheMoreYouKnow Registered User

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    What about

    Kovalchuk
    Hossa
    Zetterberg
    Lecavalier
    B. Richards
     
  10. Dennis Bonvie

    Dennis Bonvie Registered User

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    Seems this way to me too.

    Not only has he been stuck in Columbus, but he was saddled with Ken (all defense) Hitchcock for 3 seasons. Since Nash's rookie season, Jackets have not finished in the top 20 in goals for. Seems to score a lot of goals that are flat out great individual effort.
     
  11. BubbaBoot

    BubbaBoot Registered User

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    Nash - probably not
    Heatley - probably not
    Staal - Possibly. Depends on the next 4 - 5 yrs

    Others:
    Ovechkin - probably, with another couple or 3 yrs productivity
    Crosby - probably, with anither couple or 3 yrs productivity
    Thornton - Probably. A Stanley Cup could seal it.
    Kovalchuk - Possibley, if he can bounce back with consistency.
    Iginla - yes
    Lecavalier - probably not
    Marleau - probably not
    St. Louis - probably not, unless he can find the fountain of youth and stay productive until he's 40.
    Alfredsson - possibly
    Selanne - probably
    Morrow - probably not
    Bertuzzi - probably not
    Zetteberg - possibly, depends on the next 4 - 5 yrs
    Datsyuk - possibly, depends on the next 4 - 5 yrs
    Hossa - probably not
    Malkin - too early to tell
    The Sedins - ????? Honestly, I don't know where to put them. A Stanley Cup would do wonders.
    Richards - probably not
    Spezza - probably not
    Briere - probably not
    Savard - probably not
    Gomez - probably not....but I'm still curious to see how his career plays out.
    Gaborik - probably not, but he's still young enough....if he stays healthy. Hard to believe he's got 10 yrs in.
    Smyth - probably not
    Arnott - probably not
    Gagne - probably not
    Hejduk - probably not...but I'm still curious to see how his career plays out.
    Jokinen - probably not
    Rolston - probably not
    Knuble - probably not
    Kovalev - probably not.....but had the potential.
    Doan - probably not
    Lidstrom - yes
    Regehr - probably not....but a damn fine career
    Chara - possibly
    Gonchar - probably not....but a damn fine career
    Rafalski - probably not....but a damn fine career
    Kaberle - possibly.....let's see how the rest of his career plays out.
    Phaneuf - possibly, let's see how the next 4 - 5 yrs play out
    Pronger - yes
    Boyle - probably not
    Redden - could go either way...a Stanley Cup would help
    Duncan - possibly, let's see how the next 4 - 5 yrs play out
    McCabe - probably not, but a damn fine career

    Probably more (and I didn't do the GKs), butdon't have the time....

    Flame away!
     
  12. Hardyvan123

    Hardyvan123 [email protected]

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    What standards are we talking about here?

    6 seasons of over 40 goals (adjusted)

    3 100 point seasons adjusted

    Quite an impressive scoring record when representing Canada as well.

    13-4-6-10 line in the Olympics and
    52-38-24-62 in 6 world championships

    I do think that he needs to get up into some more 40 goal seasons (adjusted) so high 30's and playoff success always helps too.
     
  13. Epsilon

    Epsilon #basta

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    Well for one thing, I doubt anyone on the HOF committee cares about adjusted stats. What I mean is that he's either going to have to post some more really big seasons, or his career numbers are going to have to get into the 500-600 goal, 1200 point range. I don't think he's a player that's going to slide in by hanging around long enough to hit 1000 points, unless that includes some big years and/or playoff success.

    Also, the Canada stuff is basically irrevelant for HOF purposes, especially the World Championships numbers. Since when has anyone cared about that?
     
  14. Stephen

    Stephen Registered User

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    How are Kaberle and McCabe probably, while Hossa, Richards, Boyle and St. Louis are not?

    How is Selanne a probably?

    How is Redden going to do it from the AHL?
     
  15. TheMoreYouKnow

    TheMoreYouKnow Registered User

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    If Heatley goes 5-6 more years and ends up with 1000+ points he should be in IMO, he'd have a better career than a few Hall of Famers including recent inductees like Ciccarelli.
     
  16. begbeee

    begbeee Registered User

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    A little bit better. Not by such a large margin as you are tryin´ to imply.
     
  17. Interesting post.

    Ever since the HHOF admitted Bernie Federko, anyone....literally anyone who plays NHL hockey long enough...has a chance.

    To recap Federko: 0 cups, 0 awards

    1130 pts in 1000 games.

    1 -40 goal season and 4-100 pt seasons in an era (1980's) where 100 pt seasons were dime a dozen.

    That logic makes the likes of Verbeek,Damphousse,Fleury,Tkachuk, Bellows a lock among retires players and Alfredsson,Weight,Kovalev in the hunt for current players.
     
  18. Big Phil

    Big Phil Registered User

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    Kovalchuk - Right now a resounding no. He's played 9 playoff games in his career and doesn't exactly light the regular season on fire either

    Hossa - an interesting case. He's in his early 30s now so we'll see how he ages. Is a guy that deceptively has been a top scorer over the last decade. When you look back at his numbers he is better than you remember. Can't say if that's a good or bad thing

    Zetterberg - I think so. Is a playoff monster. Has some good years in the regular season and is highly revered (more than any of the above choices) in the NHL.

    Lecavalier - In 2007 after he led the NHL in goals I'd have said he was on the right career path. But honestly, who is this guy now? He looks............washed up. Literally played his way OFF the Olympic team consideration last year. Has very little chance now.

    Richards - I'll say no. Good point producer and actually has a Cup and Conn Smythe but while I don't know for sure I think his Hart voting history is rather poor and his point totals give you the impression he is more highly revered around the NHL than he really is.
    For starters the World Championships don't mean very much, if anything. The Olympics is another story since at least the best players in the world are there. Even so, being tops in a tournament at the highest level didn't help John Tonelli, Bill Ranford or Mike Richter get in yet. I think it should help more than the HHOF thinks so but Heatley has been good not great in top level international tournaments (2004 World Cup, 2006 and 2010 Olympics)

    The baggage I believe Epilson is talking about is the accident in 2003. Then the move from Atlanta (which was actually pretty understandable). The move from Ottawa really hurt his reputation since it was a mere 4 years after getting a fresh start on life. As far as baggage goes it does hurt your chances at the HHOF. Anderson and Ciccarelli both took extra long to get in because of their off-ice behaviour. Something tells me Gilmour is waiting solely for that reason. Fleury is a borderline case as it is and his off-ice antics don't help. Lindros anyone? Yeah, if you read the bylaws of the HHOF a person's character are part of the package too.
     
  19. unknown33

    unknown33 Registered User

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    gafasfafdsd
     
  20. Sens Rule

    Sens Rule Registered User

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    Alfredsson and Fleury are better than the others. Tkachuk and Damphousse another level comparable to Federko (who has a good playoff record, once led playoffs in points without making finals) then Weight and Verbeek who were very good but are clearly behind Federko then Bellows and Kovalev who will NEVER, EVER even be considered for the Hall.

    You are just looking at point totals.
     
  21. Sens Rule

    Sens Rule Registered User

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    St. Louis vs Heatley.

    Some say St. Louis has to do more to get in the HHOF because his counting numbers are low from his late start but I think EVERY voter that is going to be on the committee in 8-15 years would vote for St. Louis over Heatley.

    Who would you want on your team if you were going to compete for a Cup?

    I think we look at stats too much when we consider the HHOF. The voters are former players, coaches, GMs. They are going to vote for St. Louis. I think really he probably is already in if he retired after this season. Heatley would need to really, really get back to his 2006, 2007 level and stay there for 3 seasons to even get consideration.

    I wonder if the voters think not about stats or whatever. They think like this: Would I want this guy on my team? Would we win or have won a Cup if he played with me (us). That is why Neely is in. And it is why St. Louis gets in. And it is why eventually Theo Fleury will get in, despite the collossal mess he became at the end of his career (where you would not want him on your team) he has those dozen year's where he was a fireball on the ice and a clutch, agitating, shifty speedster.

    Who wants Dany ********* on their team? A guy that refuses to play defence most of the time though he is capable of doing it well, who bails on team after team, who does not raise his game when it matters most. Theo might have had personal demons but he would go through the wall for his team.

    Everyone who played with or against these players knows who is a winner and who is not. They'd probably vote for Doug Weight over Dany Heatley even though Heatley is the better and more talented player.

    Same thing with Hossa vs Heatley. Heatley may have had the higher peak offensively but everyone on the committee is going to vote for the character guy that played great on both ends of the rink over the floating, misunderstood sniper.
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2011
  22. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    I realize the HHOF committee cares very little about two-way play from forwards, instead looking at offensive numbers and Cups. But it should be noted that Nash was absolutely horrendous without the puck until he was "saddled with Hitchcock."
     
  23. Big Phil

    Big Phil Registered User

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    I agree with this post. I too would take St. Louis on my team over Heatley. Career-wise and peak. I've said this before but around 2007 I was laughed at when assuming St. Louis would be a future HHOFer. It was on these boards as well, by the way. Now no one is laughing and I can definitely see St. Louis getting into the HHOF without hitting 1000 points. He doesn't need to. There was a little bit of eyebrow raising when St. Louis wasn't selected for the Olympics last year. But I would want him on my team over Heatley and I think that sentiment is shared
     
  24. Blades of Glory

    Blades of Glory Troll Captain

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    What separates St. Louis from Heatley and many other seemingly more talented contemporaries is what exists on the inside. If you put Martin St. Louis' heart and desire into the body of a player as physically gifted as Heatley, there would be no discussion over the latter's HHOF candidacy. He would be a mortal lock. I have said this about Vincent Lecavalier as well. Put the heart of St. Louis into the body of Lecavalier, and you get a perennial Hart contender, not a guy who parlayed the only two elite seasons of his 13 year NHL career into an 11 year contract.

    St. Louis is a ridiculously undersized forward that is extremely involved in the game when on the ice. He wears his heart on his sleeve and his ascent from too small to Hart winner endears himself to fans. That is why we look at him and generally hold him with far higher regard than we do someone like Heatley or even Lecavalier, forwards with insane physical tools that sometimes (especially in Lecavalier's case) play the game with the "I'm so talented that I don't need to go all out" mantra. St. Louis skates so hard; he plays with a chip on his shoulder even though he proved himself a long time ago. He makes the players around him better, evidenced by Vincent Lecavalier's two career seasons coming on his line and now Steven Stamkos reaching ridiculous heights.

    As a Sharks fan, I can tell you that Dany Heatley is of no use to a professional hockey team unless he is scoring at least 40 goals. The first time I saw Heatley live as a Shark, I turned to my dad and told him I have never seen a player who stands around in the slot doing absolutely nothing yet somehow manages to score 40 goals consistently. Then, I saw Dany Heatley. He is no longer the explosive goal-scorer he was in Atlanta and Ottawa. Most of his goals are tap-ins at the front of the net and off rebounds, a far cry from the sniper that he was once. I like his previously unknown ability to go to the net, but he is far, far too reliant on a center getting him the puck to be the elite forward he once was. I like to joke that Heatley goes to the net and waits for Joe Thornton to shoot the puck off him into the goal. All that said, Heatley still possesses incredible talent, and he is simply having a bad year, likely the result of Joe Thornton's inexplicable point dropoff and sudden commitment to defensive play, maybe because of his captaincy. I'm sure he will be back to scoring around 40 goals next year. But his tendency to float around looking for a pass to magically find him is very annoying. You should have heard the Sharks' announcers three nights ago against Detroit when Heatley made a fantastic defensive play on the backcheck; it was palpable shock. I am pretty sure that this is the reason Heatley was removed from Joe Thornton's line. Thornton is still a work in progress defensively, but he's putting up Datsyukian takeaway numbers. Heatley is about as defensive as the Maginot Line. The flip-side, of course, is that he is generally useless without Joe to give him the puck.
     
  25. Sens Rule

    Sens Rule Registered User

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    Dany Heatley COULD be great defensively. He has elite hockey sense and while slow always knows where to be. he just does not care to do it. Occasionally you see him play a game or a few games like that or at least a few shifts.

    When you watch Alfredsson go all out on every part of the ice on his line while Dany just hangs around you can see who was the best player on the Pizza line.

    It is so frustrating because you know he COULD be so much better. He could be a complete player, he just does not try to be. That is so much worse IMO than a player that really doesn't have that ability and is offence first.

    What a waste of talent. Give Chris Kelly or Chris Neil or 50% of other NHLers his ability and they would be 50 goal scorers and good physical two way players every year.
     

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