Messier Vs Yzerman

toob · Dec 19, 2012

seventieslord said:
I realize age (Yzerman was 29 in the 1995 season) can be blamed for his statistical decline, but at the same time Messier boosted his production despite reaching that age (best adjusted PPG seasons were at age 29, 31, 35), the difference being that he was now the main guy when he wasnâ€™t before.

But they cant be compared directly with just age/being the man as the variables because in Yzerman's case the herniated disc and new role as well probably did in the goals and numbers respectively as much as age.

pdd · Dec 20, 2012

SaintPatrick33 said:
Ok. Here's my breakdown of the 83-84 Oilers. The numbers represents the total of:

How many times player A assisted on player B's goals
How many times player B assisted on player A's goals
How many times players A and B both assisted on someone else's goals

Broken down by ES/PP/SH.

These totals are for both regular season and playoffs.

Even Strength Even Strength #
C Gretzky RW Kurri 81 (64GP)
C Gretzky D Coffey 42 (80GP)
C Gretzky LW Pouzar 24 (67GP)
C Gretzky LW Messier 16 (73GP)
C Gretzky RW Anderson 13 (80GP)
C Gretzky LW Hunter 10 (80GP)
C Gretzky LW Summanen 6 (21GP)
C Gretzky LW Semenko 5 (52GP)

Power Play Power Play #
C Gretzky D Coffey 20 (80GP)
C Gretzky RW Kurri 19 (64GP)
C Gretzky LW Messier 16 (73GP)
C Gretzky RW Anderson 14 (80GP)
C Gretzky LW Pouzar 3 (67GP)
C Gretzky LW Hunter 1 (80GP)
C Gretzky LW Summanen 1 (21GP)

I think it's pretty clear Messier was with Gretzky on the PP. And that there were a good portion of games where he played with Gretzky at ES. Remember, the offensive "machine" was Gretzky/Coffey/Kurri. The stats show that pretty clearly here. So arguing that because Messier didn't score most of his ES points with Gretzky is silly, as he still scored 24.6% of his ES points with Gretzky.

It's notable that Gretzky's highest scoring linemates - Kurri and Pouzar - missed 16 and 13, respectively. Who played the wing when they were out? Were they out at the same time?

seventieslord · Dec 20, 2012

eva unit zero said:
I think it's pretty clear Messier was with Gretzky on the PP. And that there were a good portion of games where he played with Gretzky at ES. Remember, the offensive "machine" was Gretzky/Coffey/Kurri. The stats show that pretty clearly here. So arguing that because Messier didn't score most of his ES points with Gretzky is silly, as he still scored 24.6% of his ES points with Gretzky.

It's notable that Gretzky's highest scoring linemates - Kurri and Pouzar - missed 16 and 13, respectively. Who played the wing when they were out? Were they out at the same time?

I must be missing where you got 24.6% from.

Based on this:

Year Gretzky Messier Gretzky and Messier
1980 99 28 2
1981 106 49 9
1982 147 72 16
1983 131 70 13
1984 138 65 12
1985 147 34 3
1986 141 52 7
1987 124 67 7

the highest % was 22.2 in 1982.

overpass · Dec 20, 2012

Hawkey Town 18 said:
Perhaps showing where Messier ranks on Gretzky's list would add a little bit more?

It certainly would. Since Gretzky scored many more points than Messier, Messier obviously ranks lower on Gretzky's list than Gretzky does on Messier's list.

ES points only. I've included everyone who shared at least 5 ES points with Gretzky - he played with so many different players in some seasons that it's hard to narrow it down to top 3 or top 5.

overpass · Dec 20, 2012

I think "Messier played with Gretzky on the power play" is a bit of a red herring. Of course he did, but it's not clear that Gretzky's presence helped him score more points. If you look at Messier' performance record, he scored more points on the PP after Gretzky left, even when adjusted for league PP scoring levels. This is because Messier got more playing time after Gretzky left, and also because Wayne Gretzky wasn't a demi-god on the power play. He was just another very good, high scoring forward (not too different from Stastny, Dionne, Hawerchuk, or Savard.) Messier arguably had his PP totals boosted more by Brian Leetch than by Wayne Gretzky.

Here are the stats.

Mark Messier on the PP

Wayne Gretzky on the PP

overpass · Dec 20, 2012

seventieslord said:
I must be missing where you got 24.6% from.

Based on this:

Year Gretzky Messier Gretzky and Messier
1980 99 28 2
1981 106 49 9
1982 147 72 16
1983 131 70 13
1984 138 65 12
1985 147 34 3
1986 141 52 7
1987 124 67 7

the highest % was 22.2 in 1982.

SaintPatrick33 posted that Messier shared 16 ES points with Gretzky in 1983-84. My source only shows 12. (12 at ES, 12 on the PP, and 5 SH). Not sure why the numbers don't line up.

pdd · Dec 20, 2012

seventieslord said:
The numbers overpass provided indicate that 15% of Messierâ€™s ES points were shared with Gretzky over that 8-year period. This probably means that about 19% of Messierâ€™s ES TOI was with Gretzky. So, roughly speaking, about 3 minutes a game on average.

There's no way to estimate that. Mikael Samuelsson played in Vancouver and scored about half of his points with one or both Sedins. At times he played on their line. Most Vancouver fans will tell you that he played almost no time with them. If true, why did he share so much scoring with them?

Mmm hmmm, Messier avoided the top defensive defensemen and forwards because he was one himself, and had to go up against the other teamsâ€™ top guys himself!

The funny thing is there are written statements of "Messier is the best defensive forward", yet in his career he only had two top ten finishes. 1992 and 1996. 9th and 8th. That's the only time he could be legitimately called "one of the best defensive forwards". Thirteen years into his career, Yzerman had been a Selke finalist. Four years later? Yzerman would win the Selke.

Messier's Selke voting record betrays the idea of him being used in a defensive role in any serious capacity. It certainly didn't happen in the regular season; he might have received more votes than Kurri or Tikkanen. Perhaps he'd have won a Selke.

Iâ€™m surprised that youâ€™re so sure that if Yzerman went somewhere where he wasnâ€™t â€œthe manâ€ and Messier went somewhere where he was, that their scoring might change the way Iâ€™m suggesting. Because that is pretty much what happened to Messier â€“ once he was â€œthe manâ€, he scored a lot more. And once Yzerman wasnâ€™t anymore â€“ following Fedorovâ€™s emergence â€“ he saw a drop.

I specified that if they switched roles, Yzerman would still outscore Messier. That's a big difference than just "any" team. Detroit had NO wingers and mediocre defensemen, Edmonton had HHOF wingers and defensemen.

I realize age (Yzerman was 29 in the 1995 season) can be blamed for his statistical decline, but at the same time Messier boosted his production despite reaching that age (best adjusted PPG seasons were at age 29, 31, 35), the difference being that he was now the main guy when he wasnâ€™t before.

No. Yzerman's knee was rapidly deteriorating and he suffered a neck injury in the 1993-94 season that caused him to missed a third of the year. His mobility wasn't there the way it had been. If he still had full health like he did at the start of 1987-88, he'd have been destroying the league offensively.

I get the argument that a stronger team can boost your production, but itâ€™s just not that easy. Itâ€™s simple to argue the opposing point and provide evidence for it as well. Both are probably true at different times and I donâ€™t think the evidence in this case points where youâ€™d like it to.

If Messier had suffered a serious knee injury in 1984, and then suffered a severe neck injury in 1990, do you think he's the same player? He's certainly not winning any Hart trophies.

What do you want me to say? â€œok, you got me on semanticsâ€? Nothing I said was untrue. That poster turned 7 years into 10, and turned mediocre into terrible. We should stick to facts and not wild exaggerations.

Below .500 teams are not good teams, it's at least 8 years. Which is "about ten"

Itâ€™s actually not like that, because even if we were to trust raw numbers like that we would still have to make massive adjustments for the fact that Crosby easily led his line in scoring and Juneau wasnâ€™t close to his lineâ€™s scoring lead. No one with a background in hockey history or stats would ever make that claim.

In the manner of "second on team in scoring in higher era>first on team in scoring in lower era" it is exactly the same. You are going into the details of a particular example to suggest why Messier's second place finish is better than Yzerman's first-place finish.

Anyways, Iâ€™ve done the math before and even adjusted for age, and Messier was clearly a better playoff producer than Yzerman in his career.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=30570380&postcount=954

I no longer have the sheet.

But if playoff scoring finishes do it for you:

2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 6, 10, 16, 17, 18

vs.

1, 2, 6, 12, 12, 14, 20, 37, 39, 59

It's hard to judge on playoff scoring finishes without knowing where they finished on their team, how far their team went, etc.

As for Yzerman having a defensive role, it sounds like you want to have it both ways. Messier had a defensive role on the Oilers too. Heâ€™d have scored more, if he didnâ€™t. Right?

Messier was sometimes used in defensive matchups, such as the Trottier example. He did not have a defensive ROLE.

Do people still think he has top-6 talent? All Iâ€™ve ever heard is that heâ€™s a major disappointment and overpaid. In Toronto he was semi-responsible defensively but nothing special, and was quite soft.

Anyone who saw Stajan's short stint on Iginla's line last year should be able to say he didn't look out of place, and still has the skill level he did when he was traded for.

PP totals have not been a big part of Messierâ€™s totals. Compared to other players who scored raw totals in his range, he typically was among the lowest in terms of what percentage of them were PP-driven.

Messier's biggest year (90) saw him score 71 ESP and 47 PPP. In 92 he posted 65 and 33. Yzerman those same years was 87/37 and 66/27. In 88-89, Yzerman posted 101/46. In 88-89, Lemieux had 102/79; Gretzky had 100/53.

Messier isn't Mario Lemieux for PP scoring, but he's not Steve Yzerman for ES scoring.

pdd · Dec 20, 2012

seventieslord said:
I must be missing where you got 24.6% from.

Based on this:

Year Gretzky Messier Gretzky and Messier
1980 99 28 2
1981 106 49 9
1982 147 72 16
1983 131 70 13

I don't know how I'm supposed to trust your numbers when you can't even get the simple ones right.

In 1982-83 at ES Gretzky had 132, Messier had 69.

1984 138 65 12
1985 147 34 3
1986 141 52 7
1987 124 67 7

the highest % was 22.2 in 1982.

overpass · Dec 20, 2012

eva unit zero said:
I don't know how I'm supposed to trust your numbers when you can't even get the simple ones right.

In 1982-83 at ES Gretzky had 132, Messier had 69.

The numbers aren't that simple. The Hockey Summary Project boxscores have Gretzky scoring 131 ES points. The NHL only reported special teams goals for 1982-83, not special teams assists, so there are no official numbers that say otherwise.

Ohashi_Jouzu* · Dec 20, 2012

Is gaining confidence in an extra significant digit going to severely alter how much this single detail weighs in the grand scheme of things, or has tunnel vision taken over?

Rhiessan71 · Dec 20, 2012

Ohashi_Jouzu said:
Is gaining confidence in an extra significant digit going to severely alter how much this single detail weighs in the grand scheme of things, or has tunnel vision taken over?

Shouldn't but when one is grasping at straws...

seventieslord · Dec 20, 2012

At this point you are starting to zero in on some ridiculous things. I think we know what that means.

eva unit zero said:
There's no way to estimate that. Mikael Samuelsson played in Vancouver and scored about half of his points with one or both Sedins. At times he played on their line. Most Vancouver fans will tell you that he played almost no time with them. If true, why did he share so much scoring with them?

There is no need to argue about something like that. There are sites that keep detailed stats about exactly how long any player played with another.

My estimate was very simplified but it was based on what I had observed with other players. If yougo back and start over using Gretzkyâ€™s numbers (which are probably a more reliable sample size) you get the same general answer.

So quit complaining and do better. Make a hypothesis of your own and back it up.

The funny thing is there are written statements of "Messier is the best defensive forward", yet in his career he only had two top ten finishes. 1992 and 1996. 9th and 8th. That's the only time he could be legitimately called "one of the best defensive forwards". Thirteen years into his career, Yzerman had been a Selke finalist. Four years later? Yzerman would win the Selke.

No one argues that Yzerman eventually reached a level of defensive play that Messier never did. But throughout most of Messierâ€™s prime there were only 3 ballots cast, so relying on Selke voting much further than the first few is pretty sketchy. All it proves is that not many people saw him as top-3 in the league.

If Messier had suffered a serious knee injury in 1984, and then suffered a severe neck injury in 1990, do you think he's the same player? He's certainly not winning any Hart trophies.

But he didnâ€™t, did he?

And how does that answer what I said at all?

Below .500 teams are not good teams, it's at least 8 years. Which is "about ten"

The poster used the term â€œterribleâ€. Letâ€™s cut the sematic BS, please, and at least agree that a team with 75+ points, although below .500, is not â€œterribleâ€. The 40, 66, and even 69 and 70 point wings that missed the playoffs, I could liberally agree were terrible. The ones with 76, 78, 80, 93 points â€“ thatâ€™s not terrible.

Nothing I said has been invalidated. The statement â€œSteve Yzerman played on a terrible Red Wings team for about 10 years of his careerâ€ is absolutely false, at best patently misleading if youâ€™re being very liberal and generous.

In the manner of "second on team in scoring in higher era>first on team in scoring in lower era" it is exactly the same. You are going into the details of a particular example to suggest why Messier's second place finish is better than Yzerman's first-place finish.

It was a 1st place finish. And if you go by â€œadjusted adjustedâ€ scoring (which utilizes the proven concept that into the later 1990s although scoring dropped, only about half that drop manifested itself in drops in elite 1st line forwards), Messierâ€™s playoff PPG in 1990 was still 13% higher than Yzermanâ€™s in 1998. I know I was quoting raw totals to start with, but I wouldnâ€™t do that to be misleading. Adjusted properly, itâ€™s still a good deal higher.

It's hard to judge on playoff scoring finishes without knowing where they finished on their team, how far their team went, etc.

No comment on the study that adjusts their playoff scoring based on age and league scoring and still puts Messier 8% ahead per game over a 20% larger sample?

Messier was sometimes used in defensive matchups, such as the Trottier example. He did not have a defensive ROLE.

How is this much different from Yzerman having Fedorov and Draper? You make it sound like he played every shift against Sakic and Modano. Obviously he didnâ€™t.

Messier's biggest year (90) saw him score 71 ESP and 47 PPP. In 92 he posted 65 and 33. Yzerman those same years was 87/37 and 66/27. In 88-89, Yzerman posted 101/46. In 88-89, Lemieux had 102/79; Gretzky had 100/53.

Messier isn't Mario Lemieux for PP scoring, but he's not Steve Yzerman for ES scoring.

You cherrypicked the two seasons in which PP points comprised a larger percentage of his total. This was the exception throughout his prime â€“ not the norm.

And no one disputes that Yzerman had the higher offensive peak. But obviously that is not the only thing that you judge players on, obviously.

eva unit zero said:
I don't know how I'm supposed to trust your numbers when you can't even get the simple ones right.

In 1982-83 at ES Gretzky had 132, Messier had 69.

Seriously buddy?

vadim sharifijanov · Dec 20, 2012

eva unit zero said:
There's no way to estimate that. Mikael Samuelsson played in Vancouver and scored about half of his points with one or both Sedins. At times he played on their line. Most Vancouver fans will tell you that he played almost no time with them. If true, why did he share so much scoring with them?

what canucks fans have ever said that? are you just inventing strawmen here?

it's true that in those two years he played with the sedins less than burrows did, but certainly more than any other winger.

he also got the majority of PP icetime on daniel's opposite wing.

and there were times when vigneault would put the burrows and kesler back together, and samuelsson would slide up.

but i think most importantly for samuelsson's stats, after every penalty, vigneault would put the sedins on with samuelsson instead of burrows, because burrows would be tired from killing the penalty. during the sedins' art ross years, many many goals were produced immediately after killing a penalty or allowing a PP goal against.

but this is all off topic. the real point is, 1. who has ever said that? and 2. does the possibly faulty memories of canucks fans, who remain imaginary until you substantiate this, prove anything about our collective memories of the early 80s oilers? so many statements that hinge on analogies that don't work, so much faulty logic, so much dishonest arguing; i feel like i'm grading undergraduate essays here.

Czech Your Math · Dec 20, 2012

What made some of those 66-70 point Detroit teams rather bad, was that they were usually hitting those point totals in a historically weak division. 66-70 points is below avg. obviously, but in the Patrick many years, it might indicate ~average team... but in Detroit's division, it was even worse than it looked. I look at it as a negative for Yzerman that he couldn't get those teams to/above mediocre, and that a couple years in which he was injured, they actually had a better record without him.

Morgoth Bauglir · Dec 20, 2012

overpass said:
SaintPatrick33 posted that Messier shared 16 ES points with Gretzky in 1983-84. My source only shows 12. (12 at ES, 12 on the PP, and 5 SH). Not sure why the numbers don't line up.

Post season is included in those numbers. Are you also counting shared assists?

Morgoth Bauglir · Dec 20, 2012

eva unit zero said:
I think it's pretty clear Messier was with Gretzky on the PP. And that there were a good portion of games where he played with Gretzky at ES. Remember, the offensive "machine" was Gretzky/Coffey/Kurri. The stats show that pretty clearly here. So arguing that because Messier didn't score most of his ES points with Gretzky is silly, as he still scored 24.6% of his ES points with Gretzky.

It's notable that Gretzky's highest scoring linemates - Kurri and Pouzar - missed 16 and 13, respectively. Who played the wing when they were out? Were they out at the same time?

Greztky missed 6 games concurrently with Kurri at one stretch of the season. Also, Hughes and Semenko picked up 15 shares total with Gretzky.

overpass · Dec 20, 2012

SaintPatrick33 said:
Post season is included in those numbers. Are you also counting shared assists?

I didn't include postseason, so that's the difference. I did include shared assists.

Hardyvan123 · Dec 20, 2012

overpass said:
I think "Messier played with Gretzky on the power play" is a bit of a red herring. Of course he did, but it's not clear that Gretzky's presence helped him score more points[/B]

This is a very important point because there are at most only 3 points awarded on any goal so playing with 4 or 5 really good guys can just spread the points around sometimes.

Guys make this mistake in fantasy hockey all of the time.

Rhiessan71 · Dec 20, 2012

Czech Your Math said:
What made some of those 66-70 point Detroit teams rather bad, was that they were usually hitting those point totals in a historically weak division. 66-70 points is below avg. obviously, but in the Patrick many years, it might indicate ~average team... but in Detroit's division, it was even worse than it looked. I look at it as a negative for Yzerman that he couldn't get those teams to/above mediocre, and that a couple years in which he was injured, they actually had a better record without him.

What was the Wings record without Yzerman in the 29 games he missed in 85/86 and the 16 he missed in 87/88?

Morgoth Bauglir · Dec 20, 2012

overpass said:
I didn't include postseason, so that's the difference. I did include shared assists.

K, gotcha

BraveCanadian · Dec 20, 2012

Czech Your Math said:
What made some of those 66-70 point Detroit teams rather bad, was that they were usually hitting those point totals in a historically weak division. 66-70 points is below avg. obviously, but in the Patrick many years, it might indicate ~average team... but in Detroit's division, it was even worse than it looked. I look at it as a negative for Yzerman that he couldn't get those teams to/above mediocre, and that a couple years in which he was injured, they actually had a better record without him.

I have a very difficult time believing the Dead Wings were better off without Stevie Wonder.

After he got his legs under him he was for all intents and purposes the Red Wings for a few years.

Czech Your Math · Dec 20, 2012

Rhiessan71 said:
What was the Wings record without Yzerman in the 29 games he missed in 85/86 and the 16 he missed in 87/88?

Don't have data for '86, but we have data for at least two seasons during Yzerman's prime, in which he missed a substantial amount of games (but not for '86 AFAIK): In '88 he missed 16 games (.563 with, .656 without) and in '94 he missed 26 games (.569 with, .654 without). Sure, Yzerman may have been playing through injuries at times during those seasons, but his team didn't just maintain their level in his absence, they significantly increased it (expected .567, actual .655).

Rhiessan71 · Dec 20, 2012

Czech Your Math said:
Don't have data for '86, but we have data for at least two seasons during Yzerman's prime, in which he missed a substantial amount of games (but not for '86 AFAIK): In '88 he missed 16 games (.563 with, .656 without) and in '94 he missed 26 games (.569 with, .654 without). Sure, Yzerman may have been playing through injuries at times during those seasons, but his team didn't just maintain their level in his absence, they significantly increased it (expected .567, actual .655).

16 games is too small of a sample size (it's a difference of only 3 points in 16 games) and gimme a break with the 93/94 team, they were NOT even close to being a mediocre team by that point.

I'm with Brave on this one, the Wings in the mid-late 80's was a much better team with Stevie than without him.

Czech Your Math · Dec 20, 2012

Rhiessan71 said:
16 games is too small of a sample size (it's a difference of only 3 points in 16 games) and gimme a break with the 93/94 team, they were NOT even close to being a mediocre team by that point.

I'm with Brave on this one, the Wings in the mid-late 80's was a much better team with Stevie than without him.

Didn't say '94 team was mediocre at all... only that they did better when Yzerman was out. That's 42 games, which is enough to get some idea. It certainly doesn't point to a team that was much worse without Yzerman.

BraveCanadian · Dec 20, 2012

Czech Your Math said:
Didn't say '94 team was mediocre at all... only that they did better when Yzerman was out. That's 42 games, which is enough to get some idea. It certainly doesn't point to a team that was much worse without Yzerman.

In this case the numbers are definitely pointing you in the wrong direction.

At least regarding the 80s teams.. by the 90s they were starting to get more depth but there is still no way they are better over the long haul without Yzerman. That's crazy.

Messier Vs Yzerman

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