Messier Vs Yzerman

[seventieslord]

Is that enough HSP evidence to make you soften your stance a little bit? I mean, I started at the end of '81/82 and worked backwards, and quickly found those barely going back as far as the trade deadline.

I would say no. I'd want to see a whole season's data.

Having 10 points with Messier doesn't mean much if he had 45 with Lumley and 85 with Kurri or whoever else. I'd like to see something that gives us an approximation of the percentage of ES time they were together.

 

[Stansfield*]

Perhaps an Oilers fan can chirp in here, but I remember Anderson and Messier playing a lot with Hagman before he retired.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

I would say no. I'd want to see a whole season's data.

Having 10 points with Messier doesn't mean much if he had 45 with Lumley and 85 with Kurri or whoever else. I'd like to see something that gives us an approximation of the percentage of ES time they were together.

But what if a significant part of Messier's defensive reputation comes from being on the ice at the end of periods/games on a line with Wayne, and closing out so many wins? There might not be a whole lot of resultant scoring to find looking back, but everyone would have seen Messier on the ice at the end of all those wins and started connecting the dots to him just as much as Gretzky's scoring. Just one example of how simply sharing the ice - even without an accompanying offensive production record - can earn a reputation (especially once style of play is involved).

Not saying this is the tunnel to jump into and explore, just one of a couple of ways that I can see a search for even more scoring records with both involved failing to improve the focus of our picture. They DID play together at ES, and apparently more than just occasionally. That much has been deterimined. What effect it had on either, and how it contributed to their reputations (specifically in the eyes of voters) remains to be balanced, but I was led to believe that step one of just proving that they played together at ES (not just the PP!) had to be established (since I saw some pretty blatant refusal to accept that truth earlier; specifically: "The fact that Glenn Anderson and Jari Kurri (who was transitioning from LW to RW) were moving around is not evidence that Messier played with Gretzky in his three All-Star selections. Hit HSP and come back with some even-strength numbers.").

Perhaps an Oilers fan can chirp in here, but I remember Anderson and Messier playing a lot with Hagman before he retired.

You are correct.

 

[overpass]

Even strength points for Gretzky and Messier from 1979-80 through 1986-87

Year | Gretzky | Messier | Gretzky and Messier
1980 | 99 | 28 | 2
1981 | 106 | 49 | 9
1982 | 147 | 72 | 16
1983 | 131 | 70 | 13
1984 | 138 | 65 | 12
1985 | 147 | 34 | 3
1986 | 141 | 52 | 7
1987 | 124 | 67 | 7

Messier and Gretzky both contributed to anywhere from 2 to 16 ES points together in each season. That's more than nothing but certainly not in the range where you would say that Messier "played with Gretzky" or received any kind of statistical boost from Gretzky.

So who did Messier play with? Glenn Anderson, usually.

Messier's #1 | Pts | Messier's #2 | Pts | Messier's #3 | Pts
Chipperfield | 10 | Connor | 7 | Hicks | 4
Anderson | 22 | Hagman | 15 | Gretzky | 9
Anderson | 27 | Hagman | 20 | Gretzky | 16
Anderson | 33 | Linseman | 23 | Gretzky | 13
Anderson | 36 | Coffey | 13 | Lumley | 12
Anderson | 17 | Napier | 9 | Lindstrom | 6
Anderson | 27 | Coffey | 9 | Gretzky | 7
Anderson | 32 | McClelland | 9 | Nilsson | 9

Messier's #1 refers to the player who had the most even strength points shared with Messier, Messier's #2 is the player with the second most, etc.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Even strength points for Gretzky and Messier from 1979-80 through 1986-87

Year | Gretzky | Messier | Gretzky and Messier
1980 | 99 | 28 | 2
1981 | 106 | 49 | 9
1982 | 147 | 72 | 16
1983 | 131 | 70 | 13
1984 | 138 | 65 | 12
1985 | 147 | 34 | 3
1986 | 141 | 52 | 7
1987 | 124 | 67 | 7

Messier and Gretzky both contributed to anywhere from 2 to 16 ES points together in each season. That's more than nothing but certainly not in the range where you would say that Messier "played with Gretzky" or received any kind of statistical boost from Gretzky.

Central to the other poster's concern, though, was the stretch of Messier's all-star nominations during the Gretzky era - '82, '83, and '84. And if we were to estimate based on mutual production, Messier looks like he played at least twice as much with Gretzky between '82 and '84 than any other time (although I "watched" during this period, I couldn't tell you how close that estimate is to reality). Now all those bread crumbs might lead you to a wicked witch's house instead of home sweet home, but they are bread crumbs that you can't exactly blame someone for following.

I also want to re-emphasize that reputations seem to play into voting as much as basic readily available statistics, and just enough lingering memory of Gretzky and Messier on the ice closing out games during 48, 47, and 57 win seasons (along with his "style") might have given Messier a reputation boost over guys who beat/trailed him by slim margins offensively (like 2nd all-star Tonelli, who was one of 5 LWers to get slightly more points than Messier in '82, for example, or Goulet the next year, with 1 less point but arguably a more impressive and "valuable" individual performance, scoring 57 of Quebec's 343 goals).

I mean, obviously it wasn't just some Gretzky point boost that earned him that first nomination - he was no better than 6th in LWer scoring to begin with and still won, so we're obviously looking for something else. But the goal was to show that Messier did play with Gretzky a fair amount at ES between '81/82 and '83/84, and suggest that how he was used probably didn't hurt his reputation relative to some of the more "one-dimensional" high scorers at the LW position at the time; not necessarily "dismiss" his early AS nominations all together.

 

[pdd]

Messier actually received limited PP time in Edmonton until the late 80s. He obviously saw some PP ice time with Gretzky, but he wasn't getting 1st line minutes on the PP until a few years before Gretzky was traded.

Count me among those who thinks the empirical evidence is obvious that Messier's stats were hurt, rather than helped, by the Gretzky factor.

In raw production, this is how Messier's years in Edmonton on the PP go down:

Year|GP|PPG|PPA|PPP
89-90 | 79 | 13 | 34 | 47 88-89 | 72 | 6 | 28 | 34
87-88|77|12|21|33
82-83 | 77 | 12 | 20 | 32 90-91 | 53 | 3 | 18 | 21
86-87|77|7|21|28
83-84 | 73 | 7 | 17 | 24
84-85|55|4|8|12
81-82 | 78 | 10 | 5 | 15
80-81|72|4|6|10
79-80|75|1|2|3
85-86|63|10|13|23

post-Gretzky
LW All-Star

This table is interesting. While it does show some credence to the "Messier was held back" idea by his post-Gretzky seasons floating to the top, there are a couple of things that make me question correlation vs. causation:

Messier's last two years as center behind Gretzky are right up there near the top, as is his 1982-83 season on LW. In addition to the 82-83 season, the 83-84 season sees solid PP production comparable to most of his top years.

Finally, Messier peaked offensively in 1990. That can be said without a doubt. The excessive PP numbers (which were not recreated in NY) may have been the result of trading Jimmy Carson (who was Messier's only competition at center) for Joe Murphy (coverted center), Adam Graves (converted center), and Petr Klima. All three would be key players in the Oilers' Cup that spring.

Steve Yzerman played on a terrible Red Wings team for about 10 years of his career and still lit it up. Messier was always on good teams and was on the maybe the best team of all time in the 80's Oilers dynsaty.

The problem with that is that it’s debatable whether playing on the Oilers actually helped Messier’s stats. He was not a 1st liner or a 1st PP unit guy on that team. And being on a poor team doesn’t necessarily make high scoring stats more impressive. As the saying goes, “someone has to score on a bad teamâ€. It’s quite possible that on a better team Yzerman has to share the prime scoring opportunities and actually scores less

The likelihood, given Yzerman's situation compared to Messier's, is that Yzerman would have scored even more. And here's why:

1) Messier had better linemates, even playing as a second liner.
2) Yzerman was generally facing the other team's top defensemen and defensive forwards (Carbonneau, Graham, Bourque, Howe/McCrimmon, etc.) while Messier was able to avoid this matchup.

even if the team is more successful. Like what happened with Messier…

Also, the “10 years†thing is very misleading. The last time Detroit missed the playoffs was 1990, Yzerman’s 7th season. So you can only mean 7 at most.

Because making the playoffs on a team that's 4 points below .500 in 1991 (34-38-8) means it's a good team, right?

And Detroit was a playoff team in 6 of those years, and a division winner in two of them. They averaged 71 points over that time, which is not good, but not “terribleâ€, either.

It's sub-.500, also known as "bad".

Then how do you explain his 30-point playoffs in 1990 and 1994? Yzerman’s peak was 24 points.

1. Yzerman led all playoff scoring. Messier was second on his team due to a tiebreaker (Craig Simpson scored 16 goals).

2. League scoring varies in the playoffs just as it does in the regular season. It's like suggesting that Joe Juneau's rookie season was better than Sidney Crosby's because they scored about the same number of goals and Juneau had notably more assists and points.

3. Yzerman didn't have the opportunity to play in any deep playoff runs during his prime. The closest is 1986-87, which saw him used as a checking center in the CCF. After his prime, in the mid 90s, Fedorov was the team's primary center. Yzerman was used to shadow guys like Sakic, Lindros, and other top centers while still producing at near PPG. Messier's best playoff scoring years came in much higher scoring environments. Unfortunately, we don't have an easily accessible metric for adjusted playoff scoring as we do for the regular season.

Remove those seasons entirely and, Mess had 77 points in 72 playoff games from 1989-1997, at ages 28-36. At the same ages, yzerman had 113 in 120, without removing any seasons. (if you remove his two best, it’s 66 in 75)

Yzerman was not the playoff producer Mess was, and it’s really not that close. Nothing to be ashamed of. Mess is in the top-10 playoff producers of all-time.

Messier and Yzerman had primes that basically overlapped. With one major difference; Messier started his on a dynasty team and then finished on a Cup-winning Rangers team that was pretty good even if you take him away.

So what we're left with? Messier had huge opportunities during his prime to play a lot of playoff games in a high scoring era in his prime. Yzerman, OTOH, did not have that kind of opportunity. His opportunities came later.

You cherry picked the 1989-1997 years, when Messier was playing a primarily offensive role, and then go "same-age" against Yzerman, although Yzerman was playing a defense-first role for almost that entire period (94-02). Completely the same, right? It's ok to compare the offensive numbers of Zetterberg and put him against Eric Staal and decide Staal is better because he is bigger and put up one more point last season, right? Even though sanity dictates that Zetterberg>Staal.

 

[pdd]

Even strength points for Gretzky and Messier from 1979-80 through 1986-87

Year | Gretzky | Messier | Gretzky and Messier
1980 | 99 | 28 | 2
1981 | 106 | 49 | 9
1982 | 147 | 72 | 16
1983 | 131 | 70 | 13
1984 | 138 | 65 | 12
1985 | 147 | 34 | 3
1986 | 141 | 52 | 7
1987 | 124 | 67 | 7

Messier and Gretzky both contributed to anywhere from 2 to 16 ES points together in each season. That's more than nothing but certainly not in the range where you would say that Messier "played with Gretzky" or received any kind of statistical boost from Gretzky.

So who did Messier play with? Glenn Anderson, usually.

Messier's #1 | Pts | Messier's #2 | Pts | Messier's #3 | Pts
Chipperfield | 10 | Connor | 7 | Hicks | 4
Anderson | 22 | Hagman | 15 | Gretzky | 9
Anderson | 27 | Hagman | 20 | Gretzky | 16
Anderson | 33 | Linseman | 23 | Gretzky | 13
Anderson | 36 | Coffey | 13 | Lumley | 12
Anderson | 17 | Napier | 9 | Lindstrom | 6
Anderson | 27 | Coffey | 9 | Gretzky | 7
Anderson | 32 | McClelland | 9 | Nilsson | 9

Messier's #1 refers to the player who had the most even strength points shared with Messier, Messier's #2 is the player with the second most, etc.

If I'm reading your tables correctly, Gretzky was Messier's #3 four years in a row (assuming the second table is listed chronologically, he should be tied at 12 with Lumley based on your first table). That's pretty damning to the idea that they never played together or that Gretzky had no effect on Messier.

Also, it would make five of six years for Gretzky in Messier's top three, twice with Gretzky as a top-two forward.

 

[overpass]

If I'm reading your tables correctly, Gretzky was Messier's #3 four years in a row (assuming the second table is listed chronologically, he should be tied at 12 with Lumley based on your first table). That's pretty damning to the idea that they never played together or that Gretzky had no effect on Messier.

You read the tables correctly.

I would interpret the results differently. Yes, Messier played with Gretzky for a non-negligible amount of time. But they were nothing close to regular linemates and the magnitude of any possible Gretzky effect is very small. This is a very different situation from, say, Jari Kurri, who had Gretzky sharing in 70+ % of his points during his prime seasons.

 

[toob]

Even strength points for Gretzky and Messier from 1979-80 through 1986-87

Year | Gretzky | Messier | Gretzky and Messier
1980 | 99 | 28 | 2
1981 | 106 | 49 | 9
1982 | 147 | 72 | 16
1983 | 131 | 70 | 13
1984 | 138 | 65 | 12
1985 | 147 | 34 | 3
1986 | 141 | 52 | 7
1987 | 124 | 67 | 7

Messier and Gretzky both contributed to anywhere from 2 to 16 ES points together in each season. That's more than nothing but certainly not in the range where you would say that Messier "played with Gretzky" or received any kind of statistical boost from Gretzky.

So who did Messier play with? Glenn Anderson, usually.

Messier's #1 | Pts | Messier's #2 | Pts | Messier's #3 | Pts
Chipperfield | 10 | Connor | 7 | Hicks | 4
Anderson | 22 | Hagman | 15 | Gretzky | 9
Anderson | 27 | Hagman | 20 | Gretzky | 16
Anderson | 33 | Linseman | 23 | Gretzky | 13
Anderson | 36 | Coffey | 13 | Lumley | 12
Anderson | 17 | Napier | 9 | Lindstrom | 6
Anderson | 27 | Coffey | 9 | Gretzky | 7
Anderson | 32 | McClelland | 9 | Nilsson | 9

Messier's #1 refers to the player who had the most even strength points shared with Messier, Messier's #2 is the player with the second most, etc.

Just wondering if these stats also include goals by a third player that both assisted on?

 

[overpass]

Just wondering if these stats also include goals by a third player that both assisted on?

Yes, they do.

 

[quoipourquoi]

Is that enough HSP evidence to make you soften your stance a little bit?

Soften my stance? Look at what I'm responding to:

Messier placed as a LW 3 times while playing with Gretzky as his center. Based on the way you have treated other wingers (such as Kurri) Messier would likely lose those.

Messier didn't even hit 90 points in the league's highest scoring season ever with the league's highest scoring player ever centering him, yet was on the 1st team.

It doesn't take an Andy Sutton certified expert on the Edmonton Oilers to know that equating Wayne Gretzky's effect on Jari Kurri to Mark Messier is bogus. Particularly mind-boggling since earlier in the thread, he didn't even remember that Mark Messier recorded All-Star seasons at Left Wing until someone reminded him of it.

I mean...

Yzerman was definitely the better player. This is like arguing Rinne vs. Niemi.

This is the History of Hockey forum. We shouldn't be spending as much time fact-checking as we are. When someone legitimately doesn't know that Gretzky was concussed 25 years ago - that's perfectly fine. Let's spread the knowledge. But when someone knowingly misrepresents the accomplishments of another player like this, I just feel like we are wasting our time.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

You read the tables correctly.

I would interpret the results differently. Yes, Messier played with Gretzky for a non-negligible amount of time. But they were nothing close to regular linemates and the magnitude of any possible Gretzky effect is very small. This is a very different situation from, say, Jari Kurri, who had Gretzky sharing in 70+ % of his points during his prime seasons.

Perhaps showing where Messier ranks on Gretzky's list would add a little bit more?

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Soften my stance? Look at what I'm responding to:

Well, when you said this:

The fact that Glenn Anderson and Jari Kurri (who was transitioning from LW to RW) were moving around is not evidence that Messier played with Gretzky in his three All-Star selections.

Hit HSP and come back with some even-strength numbers.

were you attempting to refute the claim that Messier played as Gretzky's winger at all (or even "negligibly little") over that three year span? Because, like you suggested, I hit HSP, overpass provided the ES points table, and it seems that they played a lot more together over those three years than you were aware of - if you were.

 

[Morgoth Bauglir]

Even strength points for Gretzky and Messier from 1979-80 through 1986-87

Year | Gretzky | Messier | Gretzky and Messier
1980 | 99 | 28 | 2
1981 | 106 | 49 | 9
1982 | 147 | 72 | 16
1983 | 131 | 70 | 13
1984 | 138 | 65 | 12
1985 | 147 | 34 | 3
1986 | 141 | 52 | 7
1987 | 124 | 67 | 7

Messier and Gretzky both contributed to anywhere from 2 to 16 ES points together in each season. That's more than nothing but certainly not in the range where you would say that Messier "played with Gretzky" or received any kind of statistical boost from Gretzky.

So who did Messier play with? Glenn Anderson, usually.

Messier's #1 | Pts | Messier's #2 | Pts | Messier's #3 | Pts
Chipperfield | 10 | Connor | 7 | Hicks | 4
Anderson | 22 | Hagman | 15 | Gretzky | 9
Anderson | 27 | Hagman | 20 | Gretzky | 16
Anderson | 33 | Linseman | 23 | Gretzky | 13
Anderson | 36 | Coffey | 13 | Lumley | 12
Anderson | 17 | Napier | 9 | Lindstrom | 6
Anderson | 27 | Coffey | 9 | Gretzky | 7
Anderson | 32 | McClelland | 9 | Nilsson | 9

Messier's #1 refers to the player who had the most even strength points shared with Messier, Messier's #2 is the player with the second most, etc.

Good research! I thought this was pretty much common knowledge but I guess not. Showing my age I guess

 

[VanIslander]

Good research! I thought this was pretty much common knowledge but I guess not. Showing my age I guess

Indeed! It is laughable when people say Messier played with Gretzky. I watched the Oilers throughout the eighties and have a hard time remembering more than a handful of times that they were on the ice together! The Oilers dominated because it was either Gretzky OR Messier that the opposition faced, and Mess zeroed in on the opponent's top center for punishment!

My fav Oilers were Gretz and Coffey but I was in awe at what Mess could do, even more so when Tikkanen later joined him! My respect for Mess GREW over time, as he went from cheapshot artist to true bull dominant two-way pivot.

 

[Morgoth Bauglir]

Indeed! It is laughable when people say Messier played with Gretzky. I watched the Oilers throughout the eighties and have a hard time remembering more than a handful of times that they were on the ice together! The Oilers dominated because it was either Gretzky OR Messier that the opposition faced, and Mess zeroed in on the opponent's top center for punishment!

My fav Oilers were Gretz and Coffey but I was in awe at what Mess could do, even more so when Tikkanen later joined him! My respect for Mess GREW over time, as he went from cheapshot artist to true bull dominant two-way pivot.

I rarely saw them on ice together at even-strength. It was almost always on the power-play when they were. Occasionally you'd get some even-strength pairings (usually when Sather was double shifting Gretzky or having to juggle the lineup because someone was hurt) but those occasions were very much the exception.

 

[quoipourquoi]

were you attempting to refute the claim that Messier played as Gretzky's winger at all (or even "negligibly little") over that three year span?

I was responding to a post that claimed Glenn Anderson's LW and RW All-Star voting record was the proof that Mark Messier played with Wayne Gretzky. So unless you want to demonstrate to us how another player's voting record perfectly explains with whom two entirely separate people played, then perhaps you should take what I said within the context of the post to which I was responding.

Glenn Anderson's voting record does not prove Messier played with Gretzky. It does not prove Gretzky played with Kurri. It does not prove Kurri played with Messier. At best, it proves Glenn Anderson played LW and RW.

The following is Messier and Gretzky's highest scoring year "together."

1982
October: 1 ES Goal
November: 2 ES Goals
December 2nd: Messier scores 9 seconds after coming out of the penalty box
December: 2 ES Goals
January 2nd: Gretzky scores after 4-on-3 powerplay expires; Anderson in penalty box
January: 2 ES Goals
February 17th: Messier scores after Oilers penalty expires
February 19th: Gretzky scores during 4-on-4
February 2 ES Goals
March 10th: Semenko scores after Oilers powerplay expires
March: 2 ES Goals
April: 0 ES Goals


Now does it make sense as to why the two highest scoring players in NHL history would combine for - at most - two normal even-strength goals in any given month if Messier was...

playing with Gretzky as his center

with the league's highest scoring player ever centering him

in the middle of Gretzky's record-holding 68 ES Goal season (the next closest is 57 by Brett Hull)? And I don't even know how many ES Assists Gretzky has - and I don't feel like counting that high this early in the morning. Saying that Gretzky was Messier's center and subsequently judging Messier for not scoring more - which is the point to which I was responding - is akin to saying that any LW or RW on the Oilers who switched off with one of Gretzky's linemates while #99 was extending his shift should be branded with the aforementioned expectations.

 

[pdd]

I was responding to a post that claimed Glenn Anderson's LW and RW All-Star voting record was the proof that Mark Messier played with Wayne Gretzky.

I believe you misinterpreted my post. I stated that it was proof that Anderson played a SIGNIFICANT amount of RW that year, meaning that someone else played a significant amount of LW for Gretzky. If you interpret that correlation in that manner, that's fine (and likely, given the point data), but it doesn't mean Messier was the other (or only) LW to take that time. But he certainly played a significant portion of it, this is not debatable. We know it to be fact.

So unless you want to demonstrate to us how another player's voting record perfectly explains with whom two entirely separate people played, then perhaps you should take what I said within the context of the post to which I was responding.

It doesn't, you're the only person who seems to think so.

Glenn Anderson's voting record does not prove Messier played with Gretzky. It does not prove Gretzky played with Kurri. It does not prove Kurri played with Messier. At best, it proves Glenn Anderson played LW and RW.

Which was my original point. I said Messier played with Gretzky. People jumped with the "nuh uh, it was Anderson all year!" To wit, the high number of RW votes disprove that fact. Unless you're suggesting the voters can't tell the difference between LW ad RW for one player.

Saying that Gretzky was Messier's center and subsequently judging Messier for not scoring more - which is the point to which I was responding - is akin to saying that any LW or RW on the Oilers who switched off with one of Gretzky's linemates while #99 was extending his shift should be branded with the aforementioned expectations.

Anyone who played a partial or full season with Gretzky (or another elite center) during their prime should expect a significant boost to his scoring totals. Rob Brown, Dan Quinn, Esa Tikkanen, Ray Sheppard, and Bob Probert are some pretty good examples of this. What did they do when not with Gretzky, Lemieux or Yzerman? Evan Jari Kurri. Although Kurri only played a scoring role for a couple more seasons, and did an excellent job as center in Los Angeles in 1992-93 before being turned into a defensive specialist for the remainder of his career. I think people would hold him in higher regard were he used on a scoring line past that point; much in the same way people look at Matt Stajan now compared to his Toronto years and first 27 games with Calgary (he has top-six talent, but is used as a checking center by Calgary because they have nobody else to take key faceoffs or play solid defense).

Now that we've established that great centers have a significant effect on other players, let's look at something else. Messier posted 71 points of 295 (24%) on the PP in those All-Star seasons. Glenn Anderson put up 74 points of 308 (24%). Messier had 18 points (6%) while SH, while Anderson had 29 (9%). Jari Kurri scored 303 total, with 66 PP (22%) and 15 SH (5%).

Perhaps overpass can enlighten us as to how many points Gretzky shared with Anderson as compared with Messier and Kurri ES, PP, and SH. One must also remember that Kurri missed 19 games in that span, while Anderson missed 8 games (all in one season) and Messier 11. I don't have the boxscores, so I can't tell you which games, but it certainly could have put Messier on Gretzky's line for the time Kurri was out and possibly longer if the line was running hot.

It should be noted that the ES statistic do not, obviously, reflect PP points. Which have always been a big part of Messier's totals. He scored 72 ESP in the year you brought up, 69 the following, and 65 after that.

 

[seventieslord]

The numbers overpass provided indicate that 15% of Messier’s ES points were shared with Gretzky over that 8-year period. This probably means that about 19% of Messier’s ES TOI was with Gretzky. So, roughly speaking, about 3 minutes a game on average.

The likelihood, given Yzerman's situation compared to Messier's, is that Yzerman would have scored even more. And here's why:

1) Messier had better linemates, even playing as a second liner.
2) Yzerman was generally facing the other team's top defensemen and defensive forwards (Carbonneau, Graham, Bourque, Howe/McCrimmon, etc.) while Messier was able to avoid this matchup.

Mmm hmmm, Messier avoided the top defensive defensemen and forwards because he was one himself, and had to go up against the other teams’ top guys himself!

I’m surprised that you’re so sure that if Yzerman went somewhere where he wasn’t “the man†and Messier went somewhere where he was, that their scoring might change the way I’m suggesting. Because that is pretty much what happened to Messier – once he was “the manâ€, he scored a lot more. And once Yzerman wasn’t anymore – following Fedorov’s emergence – he saw a drop.

I realize age (Yzerman was 29 in the 1995 season) can be blamed for his statistical decline, but at the same time Messier boosted his production despite reaching that age (best adjusted PPG seasons were at age 29, 31, 35), the difference being that he was now the main guy when he wasn’t before.

I get the argument that a stronger team can boost your production, but it’s just not that easy. It’s simple to argue the opposing point and provide evidence for it as well. Both are probably true at different times and I don’t think the evidence in this case points where you’d like it to.

Because making the playoffs on a team that's 4 points below .500 in 1991 (34-38-8) means it's a good team, right?

It's sub-.500, also known as "bad".

What do you want me to say? “ok, you got me on semantics� Nothing I said was untrue. That poster turned 7 years into 10, and turned mediocre into terrible. We should stick to facts and not wild exaggerations.

1. Yzerman led all playoff scoring. Messier was second on his team due to a tiebreaker (Craig Simpson scored 16 goals).

2. League scoring varies in the playoffs just as it does in the regular season. It's like suggesting that Joe Juneau's rookie season was better than Sidney Crosby's because they scored about the same number of goals and Juneau had notably more assists and points.

It’s actually not like that, because even if we were to trust raw numbers like that we would still have to make massive adjustments for the fact that Crosby easily led his line in scoring and Juneau wasn’t close to his line’s scoring lead. No one with a background in hockey history or stats would ever make that claim.

Anyways, I’ve done the math before and even adjusted for age, and Messier was clearly a better playoff producer than Yzerman in his career.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=30570380&postcount=954

I no longer have the sheet.

But if playoff scoring finishes do it for you:

2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 6, 10, 16, 17, 18

vs.

1, 2, 6, 12, 12, 14, 20, 37, 39, 59

3. Yzerman didn't have the opportunity to play in any deep playoff runs during his prime. The closest is 1986-87, which saw him used as a checking center in the CCF. After his prime, in the mid 90s, Fedorov was the team's primary center. Yzerman was used to shadow guys like Sakic, Lindros, and other top centers while still producing at near PPG. Messier's best playoff scoring years came in much higher scoring environments. Unfortunately, we don't have an easily accessible metric for adjusted playoff scoring as we do for the regular season.

I believe the above link should handle all that.

As for Yzerman having a defensive role, it sounds like you want to have it both ways. Messier had a defensive role on the Oilers too. He’d have scored more, if he didn’t. Right?

It's ok to compare the offensive numbers of Zetterberg and put him against Eric Staal and decide Staal is better because he is bigger and put up one more point last season, right? Even though sanity dictates that Zetterberg>Staal.

You lost me…

much in the same way people look at Matt Stajan now compared to his Toronto years and first 27 games with Calgary (he has top-six talent, but is used as a checking center by Calgary because they have nobody else to take key faceoffs or play solid defense).

Do people still think he has top-6 talent? All I’ve ever heard is that he’s a major disappointment and overpaid. In Toronto he was semi-responsible defensively but nothing special, and was quite soft.

It should be noted that the ES statistic do not, obviously, reflect PP points. Which have always been a big part of Messier's totals. He scored 72 ESP in the year you brought up, 69 the following, and 65 after that.

PP totals have not been a big part of Messier’s totals. Compared to other players who scored raw totals in his range, he typically was among the lowest in terms of what percentage of them were PP-driven.

 

[Morgoth Bauglir]

I was responding to a post that claimed Glenn Anderson's LW and RW All-Star voting record was the proof that Mark Messier played with Wayne Gretzky. So unless you want to demonstrate to us how another player's voting record perfectly explains with whom two entirely separate people played, then perhaps you should take what I said within the context of the post to which I was responding.

Glenn Anderson's voting record does not prove Messier played with Gretzky. It does not prove Gretzky played with Kurri. It does not prove Kurri played with Messier. At best, it proves Glenn Anderson played LW and RW.

The following is Messier and Gretzky's highest scoring year "together."

1982
October: 1 ES Goal
November: 2 ES Goals
December 2nd: Messier scores 9 seconds after coming out of the penalty box
December: 2 ES Goals
January 2nd: Gretzky scores after 4-on-3 powerplay expires; Anderson in penalty box
January: 2 ES Goals
February 17th: Messier scores after Oilers penalty expires
February 19th: Gretzky scores during 4-on-4
February 2 ES Goals
March 10th: Semenko scores after Oilers powerplay expires
March: 2 ES Goals
April: 0 ES Goals


Now does it make sense as to why the two highest scoring players in NHL history would combine for - at most - two normal even-strength goals in any given month if Messier was...





in the middle of Gretzky's record-holding 68 ES Goal season (the next closest is 57 by Brett Hull)? And I don't even know how many ES Assists Gretzky has - and I don't feel like counting that high this early in the morning. Saying that Gretzky was Messier's center and subsequently judging Messier for not scoring more - which is the point to which I was responding - is akin to saying that any LW or RW on the Oilers who switched off with one of Gretzky's linemates while #99 was extending his shift should be branded with the aforementioned expectations.

I did a study on on the 83-84 Oilers (the last year Messier was a regular at LW btw) that broke things down for the entire team by how often players assisted on each others goals and how often they shared assists. Let me see if I can organize it into something resembling a readable form and I'll post it here.

 

[Morgoth Bauglir]

Ok. Here's my breakdown of the 83-84 Oilers. The numbers represents the total of:

How many times player A assisted on player B's goals
How many times player B assisted on player A's goals
How many times players A and B both assisted on someone else's goals

Broken down by ES/PP/SH.

These totals are for both regular season and playoffs.


Even Strength Even Strength #
C Gretzky RW Kurri 81
C Gretzky D Coffey 42
C Gretzky LW Pouzar 24
C Gretzky LW Messier 16
C Gretzky D Huddy 14
C Gretzky RW Anderson 13
C Gretzky RW Lindstrom 12
C Gretzky D Gregg 12
C Gretzky D Lowe 11
C Gretzky LW Hunter 10
C Gretzky RW Hughes 9
C Gretzky G Fuhr 6
C Gretzky D Jackson 6
C Gretzky LW Summanen 6
C Gretzky LW Semenko 5
C Gretzky C Linseman 3
C Gretzky D Fogolin 3
C Gretzky D Chartraw 1
C Gretzky RW Lumley 1
C Gretzky LW Strueby 1
C Gretzky C Roulston 1
C Gretzky C Conacher 1
C Gretzky LW Berry 1
C Gretzky D Playfair 1
C Gretzky D Melnyk 1

RW Kurri D Coffey 20
RW Kurri LW Pouzar 18
RW Kurri D Lowe 11
RW Kurri D Huddy 7
RW Kurri LW Messier 6
RW Kurri D Fogolin 5
RW Kurri LW Semenko 5
RW Kurri LW Summanen 5
RW Kurri D Gregg 4
RW Kurri RW Lindstrom 4
RW Kurri LW Hunter 3
RW Kurri RW Anderson 2
RW Kurri C Linseman 2
RW Kurri D Jackson 2
RW Kurri G Fuhr 2
RW Kurri D Blum 1
RW Kurri D Playfair 1
RW Kurri D Melnyk 1
RW Kurri C Habscheid 1
RW Kurri LW Strueby 1
RW Kurri D Chartraw 1

RW Anderson LW Messier 41
RW Anderson C Linseman 20
RW Anderson D Coffey 13
RW Anderson RW Lumley 11
RW Anderson D Lowe 8
RW Anderson D Huddy 8
RW Anderson D Gregg 6
RW Anderson D Jackson 5
RW Anderson D Fogolin 4
RW Anderson G Fuhr 4
RW Anderson RW Lindstrom 3
RW Anderson C McClelland 2
RW Anderson LW Pouzar 2
RW Anderson LW Hunter 2
RW Anderson LW Berry 1
RW Anderson D Chartraw 1
RW Anderson RW Hughes 1

LW Messier D Coffey 15
LW Messier RW Lumley 12
LW Messier C Linseman 11
LW Messier D Lowe 8
LW Messier D Huddy 6
LW Messier D Fogolin 6
LW Messier D Gregg 5
LW Messier D Jackson 4
LW Messier RW Lindstrom 3
LW Messier RW Hughes 2

D Coffey D Huddy 14
D Coffey RW Hughes 9
D Coffey C McClelland 8
D Coffey C Linseman 8
D Coffey LW Hunter 7
D Coffey LW Pouzar 6
D Coffey RW Lindstrom 5
D Coffey LW Semenko 3
D Coffey LW Summanen 3
D Coffey RW Lumley 3
D Coffey G Fuhr 2
D Coffey C Roulston 1
D Coffey D Gregg 1
D Coffey C Sherven 1
D Coffey LW Berry 1
D Coffey D Fogolin 1

RW Hughes LW Hunter 31
RW Hughes C McClelland 17
RW Hughes D Lowe 7
RW Hughes C Conacher 6
RW Hughes D Jackson 6
RW Hughes C Linseman 5
RW Hughes D Chartraw 3
RW Hughes D Gregg 3
RW Hughes D Huddy 2
RW Hughes RW Lumley 1
RW Hughes D Fogolin 1
RW Hughes C Roulston 1

LW Hunter C McClelland 13
LW Hunter D Gregg 6
LW Hunter C Linseman 4
LW Hunter D Jackson 4
LW Hunter D Lowe 3
LW Hunter D Fogolin 3
LW Hunter C Conacher 3
LW Hunter D Huddy 1
LW Hunter G Fuhr 1
LW Hunter D Chartraw 1

C Linseman RW Lindstrom 10
C Linseman LW Semenko 7
C Linseman D Lowe 7
C Linseman D Fogolin 5
C Linseman D Gregg 4
C Linseman D Jackson 4
C Linseman D Chartraw 3
C Linseman RW Lumley 2
C Linseman LW Pouzar 2
C Linseman G Fuhr 1
C Linseman LW Berry 1

RW Lindstrom D Lowe 8
RW Lindstrom LW Semenko 7
RW Lindstrom C Roulston 4
RW Lindstrom D Huddy 3
RW Lindstrom LW Berry 2
RW Lindstrom D Fogolin 2

LW Pouzar RW Lumley 3
LW Pouzar D Jackson 2

LW Semenko D Fogolin 4
LW Semenko D Huddy 3
LW Semenko C Roulston 3
LW Semenko D Gregg 3
LW Semenko RW Lumley 3
LW Semenko D Lowe 2
LW Semenko D Jackson 1
LW Semenko C McClelland 1

C McClelland D Gregg 4
C McClelland D Huddy 2
C McClelland G Fuhr 2
C McClelland RW Lumley 2
C McClelland D Fogolin 1
C McClelland D Lowe 1
C McClelland D Jackson 1

C Conacher D Jackson 3
C Conacher RW Gorence 2
C Conacher D Gregg 1
C Conacher D Huddy 1
C Conacher D Fogolin 1

RW Lumley D Huddy 3
RW Lumley D Lowe 3
RW Lumley D Jackson 2
RW Lumley D Gregg 1
RW Lumley D Fogolin 1
RW Lumley C Roulston 1

D Fogolin D Lowe 5
D Fogolin LW Summanen 1

D Huddy C Roulston 2
D Huddy G Fuhr 1
D Huddy LW Summanen 1
D Huddy RW Gorence 1

D Gregg D Lowe 3
D Gregg G Fuhr 3
D Gregg C Roulston 2
D Gregg D Jackson 2
D Gregg D Chartraw 2

D Lowe C Habscheid 1
D Lowe D Chartraw 1
D Lowe C Roulston 1

D Jackson RW Gorence 1
D Jackson G Fuhr 1
D Jackson C Roulston 1

C Roulston LW Berry 1


Power Play Power Play #
C Gretzky D Coffey 20
C Gretzky RW Kurri 19
C Gretzky LW Messier 16
C Gretzky RW Anderson 14
C Gretzky D Huddy 7
C Gretzky C Linseman 4
C Gretzky LW Pouzar 3
C Gretzky G Fuhr 2
C Gretzky D Gregg 2
C Gretzky RW Lindstrom 2
C Gretzky D Lowe 2
C Gretzky LW Hunter 1
C Gretzky LW Summanen 1

RW Kurri D Coffey 12
RW Kurri LW Messier 7
RW Kurri D Huddy 7
RW Kurri LW Pouzar 3
RW Kurri C Linseman 3
RW Kurri RW Lindstrom 3
RW Kurri D Lowe 2
RW Kurri D Gregg 1
RW Kurri LW Summanen 1
RW Kurri RW Anderson 1

RW Anderson LW Messier 11
RW Anderson D Coffey 10
RW Anderson C Linseman 6
RW Anderson D Lowe 3
RW Anderson RW Lindstrom 2
RW Anderson D Huddy 2
RW Anderson D Gregg 2
RW Anderson C Roulston 1
RW Anderson LW Pouzar 1
RW Anderson G Fuhr 1

LW Messier D Coffey 15
LW Messier RW Lindstrom 5
LW Messier D Gregg 3
LW Messier D Lowe 3
LW Messier C Linseman 3
LW Messier D Huddy 1
LW Messier G Fuhr 1
LW Messier G Moog 1

D Coffey RW Lindstrom 4
D Coffey C Linseman 4
D Coffey D Huddy 4
D Coffey G Fuhr 3
D Coffey RW Hughes 2
D Coffey G Moog 1
D Coffey LW Pouzar 1
D Coffey C Roulston 1
D Coffey D Gregg 1

RW Hughes D Gregg 1
RW Hughes D Huddy 1

LW Hunter D Gregg 1

C Linseman D Huddy 2
C Linseman RW Lindstrom 1
C Linseman D Gregg 1
C Linseman D Lowe 1

RW Lindstrom D Huddy 1
RW Lindstrom LW Pouzar 1

LW Pouzar D Huddy 1

C McClelland D Gregg 1
C McClelland D Lowe 1

D Gregg D Lowe 5


Short Handed Short Handed #
C Gretzky RW Kurri 8
C Gretzky D Coffey 5
C Gretzky LW Messier 5
C Gretzky D Fogolin 3
C Gretzky RW Anderson 2
C Gretzky RW Hughes 2
C Gretzky C Linseman 2
C Gretzky D Jackson 2
C Gretzky D Lowe 2
C Gretzky G Fuhr 1
C Gretzky D Gregg 1

RW Kurri D Coffey 2
RW Kurri D Fogolin 2
RW Kurri RW Hughes 1

RW Anderson D Coffey 3
RW Anderson LW Messier 2
RW Anderson D Gregg 1
RW Anderson C Linseman 1

LW Messier D Lowe 3
LW Messier D Gregg 3
LW Messier C Linseman 2
LW Messier D Coffey 2
LW Messier LW Hunter 1
LW Messier D Fogolin 1

D Coffey C Linseman 2
D Coffey RW Hughes 1

RW Hughes D Lowe 1
RW Hughes D Jackson 1
RW Hughes LW Hunter 1
RW Hughes D Huddy 1

LW Hunter D Fogolin 1
LW Hunter D Huddy 1
LW Hunter LW Berry 1

C Linseman C McClelland 1
C Linseman G Fuhr 1
C Linseman D Gregg 1
C Linseman D Lowe 1

C McClelland C Conacher 1
C McClelland D Gregg 1

 

[quoipourquoi]

Which was my original point. I said Messier played with Gretzky. People jumped with the "nuh uh, it was Anderson all year!" To wit, the high number of RW votes disprove that fact. Unless you're suggesting the voters can't tell the difference between LW ad RW for one player.

Which is explained because Jari Kurri was a LW at the time, transitioning into a RW. Yet you compared the effect Gretzky had on Kurri to one that he would have on Messier. That is simply unreasonable.

The numbers overpass provided indicate that 15% of Messier’s ES points were shared with Gretzky over that 8-year period. This probably means that about 19% of Messier’s ES TOI was with Gretzky. So, roughly speaking, about 3 minutes a game on average.

I doubt it was as high as 19% of playing time, even with the double-shifting and last-minute crunch time hockey (which isn't out of the ordinary for most teams - but are we going to call players like Sakic and Forsberg linemates too?). I think it's probable that a Messier/Gretzky combination would be more likely to score at a quicker pace than a Messier/Linseman combination or a Messier/Lumley combination, so they would need fewer minutes to record their number of ES points. And given the fact that the distribution in the most heavily impacted season is no more than 2 ES goals each month that are unexplained by special teams, I'm confident they played less than 19% of each game with each other. Surely the two highest-scoring players of all-time could get more than 2 ES goals each month if they were playing together as often as that.

And I do find it funny that Gretzky shared the second-most ES points of all forwards with Messier in 1986 (7) when they were both centers, and I don't think we're in the realm of calling them linemates or casually saying that the one was the other's center that year either.

 

[quoipourquoi]

Messier placed as a LW 3 times while playing with Gretzky as his center. Based on the way you have treated other wingers (such as Kurri) Messier would likely lose those.

These totals are for both regular season and playoffs.

C Gretzky RW Kurri 81
...
C Gretzky LW Messier 16

And that's the ballgame, unless anyone wants to start a semantics argument because someone used the word who instead of whom at some point.

 

[Morgoth Bauglir]

And that's the ballgame, unless anyone wants to start a semantics argument because someone used the word who instead of whom at some point.

I was hoping that info would be useful

 

[seventieslord]

Which is explained because Jari Kurri was a LW at the time, transitioning into a RW. Yet you compared the effect Gretzky had on Kurri to one that he would have on Messier. That is simply unreasonable.



I doubt it was as high as 19% of playing time, even with the double-shifting and last-minute crunch time hockey (which isn't out of the ordinary for most teams - but are we going to call players like Sakic and Forsberg linemates too?). I think it's probable that a Messier/Gretzky combination would be more likely to score at a quicker pace than a Messier/Linseman combination or a Messier/Lumley combination, so they would need fewer minutes to record their number of ES points. And given the fact that the distribution in the most heavily impacted season is no more than 2 ES goals each month that are unexplained by special teams, I'm confident they played less than 19% of each game with each other. Surely the two highest-scoring players of all-time could get more than 2 ES goals each month if they were playing together as often as that.

And I do find it funny that Gretzky shared the second-most ES points of all forwards with Messier in 1986 (7) when they were both centers, and I don't think we're in the realm of calling them linemates or casually saying that the one was the other's center that year either.

Actually, I didn’t fully complete that thought.

If 15% of Messier’s points were with Gretzky, that probably means about 19% of his points were scored with Gretzky on the ice (bumping it up slightly to account for points scored with Gretzky on the ice but no point for Gretzky)

However, points would be more frequent with Gretzky on the ice… probably twice as frequent. So the actual amount of time they spent together probably constituted 9-12% of Messier’s ES time. 2-2.5 minutes.

If anyone has a conclusion that makes more logical sense, let me know.