Speculation: Melnyk Breaking Point

[sens4life]

Don't underestimate the power of another lockout in a couple of years (I think the current contract expires in 2020-21? Maybe his thinking his:
- 2 years of barebones spending
- 1 year of lockout (estimate)
- within the above 3 years, arena will be signed and sealed, with delivery coming around 2024?
- franchise value will go up based on arena deal alone
- EM sells within 3 years, 1 of which he doesn't have to pay players
- franchise value will be at least double what it is now (estimated)

So it's a waiting game for him while he negotiates. Until arena deal is done, no reason for him to sell regardless of attendance.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Moldy old acts that have been around for 50 years, a boy bander, a reality show star, and someone I've never heard of before are all crap.

Managed to capture a screen shot of you

 

[harrisb]

Don't underestimate the power of another lockout in a couple of years (I think the current contract expires in 2020-21? Maybe his thinking his:
- 2 years of barebones spending
- 1 year of lockout (estimate)
- within the above 3 years, arena will be signed and sealed, with delivery coming around 2024?
- franchise value will go up based on arena deal alone
- EM sells within 3 years, 1 of which he doesn't have to pay players
- franchise value will be at least double what it is now (estimated)

So it's a waiting game for him while he negotiates. Until arena deal is done, no reason for him to sell regardless of attendance.

Franchise value is going to double with a new arena? So we'll be worth very close to the same as the leafs and rangers?

 

[Stylizer1]

How many of these threads do we need?

As many as it takes.

 

[Charliebox]

The really sad part is that Melnyk can probably hold onto this team for a few more years if he wants.

The team gets $40m/yr in TV money before they sell one ticket. If we assume their payroll is $70M in cash, which it isn't, but we'll go with that number. Then you have the wages/salaries of all the management, support staff, building/parking staff etc.

Overall, even if they sell very few tickets, it doesn't take that much money to break even. If the average ticket is $70 and they sell 8,000 /game, that's another $23M in revenue. Overall revenue is now $65M just on hockey. Then they have all the money coming in from concerts, concessions and parking.

At the end of the day, I think the Xfactor is how much this guy pays in interest every year. I bet it's upwards of $20M.

This is why it's so key to boycott this team. Even with a meager attendance, he can afford to run the team.

We have to remember, he's going to get another free $20M when Seattle comes in.

We need to make this building as empty as possible to force him to sell the team. The absolute worst thing that can happen is if this team comes out and has a good October. Then all the fairweather fans will come back, thinking the team has a chance.

 

[lancepitlick]

I think it's impossible to say without seeing his balance sheet or knowing how Lebreton would factor in to things.

How much is he losing, how much does he have, how much does Lebreton change those equations? No clue.

Does he plan to sell or die with the team? No clue.

Unfortunately not enough data.

 

[armani]

Keep the #MelnykBoycott #EmptyCTC on until he sells.

 

[coladin]

Here's what I'm wondering, how low does the attendance need to be to really hurt Melnyk? Like what's the attendance break even point for a game when the payroll is at the cap floor?

Just based on everything I've read, Melnyk is one stubborn mother****er who is not going to let go of this team that easily, and I can see him stripping this team down to the bones as long as the few thousand fans that come every game are able to prop him up.

Lol, he was hurting when he put on the tarps. When I saw those tarps, or the Coyotes game where Karlsson was unbelievable , in front of 11,069 fans, I turned to my friend and said "there is no way he is going to afford Karlson". Everthing I said, he is doing. It's just business, you know.

You are right, he is a stubborn motherf***er, he will continue to gut and filet this once proud team to make the numbers work. And he can and will.

 

[harrisb]

Lol, he was hurting when he put on the tarps. When I saw those tarps, or the Coyotes game where Karlsson was unbelievable , in front of 11,069 fans, I turned to my friend and said "there is no way he is going to afford Karlson". Everthing I said, he is doing. It's just business, you know.

You are right, he is a stubborn mother****er, he will continue to gut and filet this once proud team to make the numbers work. And he can and will.

You said EK would stay - gone
You said he was selling / bringing in partners - hasn't happened
What exactly is the everything that you've said he would do that he is doing? I see two major swings and misses thus far.

 

[Charliebox]

We all know Melnyk is not here long term. The new perspective owners have all the time in the world to wait for him to sell. Right now, they are bargaining from a position of strength. They are going to wait until his demands are reasonable. The best thing we can do is to make him suffer enough to lower his demands.

 

[swiftwin]

You're really going to have to help me out with this one given there are articles out there stating the exact opposite for an NHL franchise. The money is in the venue and other events so it will most definitely hurt him. One of the lowest attendance franchises (Panthers) managed to still turn a profit in the lockout year, why? It's due to the venue and other events, really simple. You can't hurt him by nibbling at his fingertips, go for the heart (arena) and head (sponsors, TV deals). Teams lose money all over the league however the operating companies make huge bank when all entities are consolidated.

NHL Lockout: Why do billionaires keep buying teams that lose money? (Updated)

No shit. This is why Melnyk is so desperate for Lebreton. He's willing to burn the team down to get that sweet sweet Lebreton cash.

 

[harrisb]

No ****. This is why Melnyk is so desperate for Lebreton. He's willing to burn the team down to get that sweet sweet Lebreton cash.

You know what is awesome, every single time I post that link which is full of audited public information the defenders just totally ignore it and go silent.

 

[swiftwin]

We all know Melnyk is not here long term. The new perspective owners have all the time in the world to wait for him to sell. Right now, they are bargaining from a position of strength. They are going to wait until his demands are reasonable. The best thing we can do is to make him suffer enough to lower his demands.

Yup, as far as we know, they're the ones who loaned the $135m at the end of June. They were also rumored to have some sort of inside track on buying the team if Melnyk sells, which is why he got a much better rate. Probably a right of first refusal? Melnyk loses nothing with a clause like this if he truly believes he can make it until Lebreton. The prospective owners have everything to gain if they believe Melnyk can't make it. They basically own the team now, it's just a matter of when Melnyk cries uncle. I'm worried things could get a lot uglier before they get better

 

[swiftwin]

You said EK would stay - gone
You said he was selling / bringing in partners - hasn't happened
What exactly is the everything that you've said he would do that he is doing? I see two major swings and misses thus far.

It can still happen. It's painfully obvious that it's a matter of when, not if. If it had happened sooner, EK probably would have stayed.

 

[harrisb]

It can still happen. It's painfully obvious that it's a matter of when, not if. If it had happened sooner, EK probably would have stayed.

The Toronto Maple Leafs will eventually be sold or bring in partners, if it had happened sooner Nylander would be signed.

I can literally apply this to any franchise in professional sports, not really a bold move Cotton.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

It can still happen. It's painfully obvious that it's a matter of when, not if. If it had happened sooner, EK probably would have stayed.

I'm not so sure to be quite frank.

If Melnyk was 100% out, without any kind of input in decisions then maybe but if Melnyk just has partners for cash but makes all the calls then we are still at square one.

 

[swiftwin]

I'm not so sure to be quite frank.

If Melnyk was 100% out, without any kind of input in decisions then maybe but if Melnyk just has partners for cash but makes all the calls then we are still at square one.

I highly doubt anyone would want to partner up with with someone as erratic as Melnyk and yet still let him call the shots. Otherwise, it would have happened by now.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I highly doubt anyone would want to partner up with with someone as erratic as Melnyk and yet still let him call the shots. Otherwise, it would have happened by now.

That's sort of my point, Friedman claims that Melnyk refusing to sell and not be part of decisions is the reason why a sale/partnership didn't happen.

So it was never really in the cards.

 

[coladin]

You said EK would stay - gone
You said he was selling / bringing in partners - hasn't happened
What exactly is the everything that you've said he would do that he is doing? I see two major swings and misses thus far.

The gutting and filet part. I didn't say Karlsson was staying. He wanted to stay, but i knew he wasn't going to, and told a moderator as much in a private conversation. It's money in/money out with this guy.

Still hopeful for the partnership, haven't heard anything otherwise and went to the CHEO function last week, and the gossip was strong in that room, something is definitely up.

 

[harrisb]

The gutting and filet part. I didn't say Karlsson was staying. He wanted to stay, but i knew he wasn't going to, and told a moderator as much in a private conversation. It's money in/money out with this guy.

Still hopeful for the partnership, haven't heard anything otherwise and went to the CHEO function last week, and the gossip was strong in that room, something is definitely up.

I'm hopeful of a complete sale as well. It's been painfully obvious that Melnyk is gutting and penny pinching with this team for a couple years now, a tiger doesn't suddenly lose his stripes.

Our only real hope is new ownership, the current one will continue to mettle in team affairs and fill the front office with the cheapest possible options who are yes men/women. He's the acting president right now and our marketing officer is a buddy of his from Barbados with very little experience in pro sports. Ruszkowski is nothing but a PR man jammed in to a COO role of a hockey team. Willing to bet that Eugene did the math and it was cheaper to hire him then continue paying consulting fees in Toronto. Ruszkowski also happens to be a former Biovail consultant, the nepotism runs deep in this org originating from the top.

 

[harrisb]

double post

 

[DueDiligence]

Moldy old acts that have been around for 50 years, a boy bander, a reality show star, and someone I've never heard of before are all crap.

Well who did you want... The Wiggles?

 

[coladin]

I'm hopeful of a complete sale as well. It's been painfully obvious that Melnyk is gutting and penny pinching with this team for a couple years now, a tiger doesn't suddenly lose his stripes.

Our only real hope is new ownership, the current one will continue to mettle in team affairs and fill the front office with the cheapest possible options who are yes men/women. He's the acting president right now and our marketing officer is a buddy of his from Barbados with very little experience in pro sports. Ruszkowski is nothing but a PR man jammed in to a COO role of a hockey team. Willing to bet that Eugene did the math and it was cheaper to hire him then continue paying consulting fees in Toronto. Ruszkowski also happens to be a former Biovail consultant, the nepotism runs deep in this org originating from the top.

From what I hear, there is very little chance he will sell the team and walkaway from Lebreton. The best hope is a partner who will run the Senators and be the de facto owner, based around this local prominent family, and Melnyk will look after Lebreton. And stay the hell away from the mic, the team . That is our best hope and I think , IF, everything goes through we will all like the face of the franchise and can move on from this horrible chapter.

 

[Sensung]

We all know Melnyk is not here long term. The new perspective owners have all the time in the world to wait for him to sell. Right now, they are bargaining from a position of strength. They are going to wait until his demands are reasonable. The best thing we can do is to make him suffer enough to lower his demands.

Yup

 

[Adele Dazeem]

There needs to be serious backlash. Right now the media is simply spinning it as the fans are not happy with some of decisions from both the owner and the GM. Fans from the area need to gather in groups of hundreds/thousands if possible and make a statement in front of the building. There needs to be a drastic decrease in attendance (5-7k max). Once these demonstrations get picked up then the media and the NHL will take action.

At the current state, the media and NHL will just accept the fate that Melnyk wants to rebuild and the issue is being magnified by the fanatic fans.