Speculation: Melnyk Breaking Point

Discussion in 'Ottawa Senators' started by RAFI BOMB, Sep 26, 2018.

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  1. RAFI BOMB

    RAFI BOMB Registered User

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    This thread is to speculate on what conditions need to be met or what scenarios need to occur for Eugene Melnyk to finally sell the Ottawa Senators or for the NHL to step in and force him to sell.

    It seems like Melnyk's approach this season is to be as cheap as possible. Looking at the roster it looks like he is trying to get as close to the cap floor as he can. He also hired some new marketing personnel which at this point suggests that he is hoping that his marketing team can try and spin the image and try and sell this mediocre roster to the fans. I get the impression that either Melnyk is dumb enough to think that he can get comparable ticket sales to previous seasons with a cap floor team or he thinks the fans are dumb enough to continue to buy tickets for an increasingly crappier product. But so far that has backfired as season tickets are at all time lows with under 4,000 being sold at this point. Given the moves this team has made and the performance in pre-season it seems reasonable to expect that attendance at games will be at all time lows this season.

    What conditions need to occur for Melnyk to start panicking and decide to sell the team? If the average game attendance is around 10,000 or less how long will he be able to cope with that? If the Melnyk out signs start popping up again how will he react? At what point does the league step in a force him to sell? What power does the league have to force him to sell?
     
  2. Variable26

    Variable26 Global Matador

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    How many of these threads do we need?
     
  3. Tuna99

    Tuna99 Registered User

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    This isn't a rebuild, it's a smouldering pile of rubble from a once proud franchise. This only gets worse.

    I think he has to admit to himself that he is a failure as the owner of the Ottawa Senators and come to the realization that he doesn't have the skill set or financial strength to be a successful NHL owner in Ottawa.

    He's only hanging on now to talk to sunglasses/radio guy and do interviews with Boro. His ego needs the spotlight, he craves attention like bad-kid who acts naughty just to get noticed.

    We are at a stage when a rich man is acting like a child because he can, and the NHL is enabling him. Rich people interact on a level of entitlement we can't even pretend to comprehend, at what point does a multi millionaire tell another multi millionaire he's no longer a great man, he's just rich - that's the point Melnyck sells the Sens, and it looks to me like no one around him (and no one interviewing him) has any courage to say it's time. Alfie did, but Alfie is our hero, Dorion and company are just yes men riding on the coatails of a sick lord.
     
  4. The Lewler

    The Lewler GOAT BUDGET AINEC

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    Well, the team has certain known costs and known revenues.

    The question is does he suffer meaningful losses after he slashes payroll to somewhere in the 55 million range.

    The team has certain known revenues and expenses. They know how much they get from TV and sponsor deals. They know how much they spend on staff, travel, operations etc.

    The biggest variables are clearly ticket sales and player salaries.

    So, with franchise record lows of attendance likely coming, does dropping player payroll to around 55 million flatten out his losses or is it still really bad ? We dont know.

    If it's still big losses then its presumably s pressure point.

    If by burning the roster down and hitting that bare minimum fan support resistance level that cant be breached ( people that will buy tickets no matter what) his losses are relatively small (single digit millions) then I think he just keeps skating by.

    This is all using the assumption that he only has a short to mid term goal here which is get Lebreton built as the majority owner of the Sens.
     
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  5. 16w

    16w Registered User

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    On the personal battle front between me and Melnyk, he's won. Trading Karlsson broke me. I've started to use the teal LED lights in my room more and have even pieced up my Senators flag to use as toilet paper.
     
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  6. harrisb

    harrisb Registered User

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    Attendance is less than half of team revenues, I think he’ll survive due to slashing payroll. Boycott his sponsors on social media, don’t attend games, concerts or other events at the rink. If you’re involved with minor hockey try not to get ice time at sensplexes, avoid the sens hockey tournament too. That’s the main way I can think of pinching him.

    He’s seen the season tickets numbers and that is why all these decisions so late in the summer
     
  7. Day Man

    Day Man Fighter of the night man, master of the sun

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    yup Melnyk has won imo, even if we get rid of him it wont bring karlsson back, so he will always get the last laugh.
     
  8. Joeyjoejoe

    Joeyjoejoe Registered User

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    Why do you care, are you paying for the sites servers and hosting rights?

    If you don't like the subject, no one is forcing you to enter the thread.
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2018
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  9. ReginKarlssonLehner

    ReginKarlssonLehner Let's Win It All

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    I completely disagree. I think EK comes back in off-season if Melnyk leaves between now and the deadline.
     
  10. Do Make Say Think

    Do Make Say Think & Yet & Yet

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    I'm thinking that putting Smith on waivers could be a very direct result of god awful ticket sales.

    So far so good I guess? I'll be honest, if this is the case, I hate that Smith has to pay the price.... He may be overpaid and all but he doesn't deserve to be treated like this.
     
  11. RyCam

    RyCam Registered User

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    Here's what I'm wondering, how low does the attendance need to be to really hurt Melnyk? Like what's the attendance break even point for a game when the payroll is at the cap floor?

    Just based on everything I've read, Melnyk is one stubborn mother****er who is not going to let go of this team that easily, and I can see him stripping this team down to the bones as long as the few thousand fans that come every game are able to prop him up.
     
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  12. Do Make Say Think

    Do Make Say Think & Yet & Yet

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    Honestly I very much doubt there is a scenario where Melnyk can be forced to sell, either on his own or via the NHL.

    I'm boycotting because I was lied to for months on end, not because I think doing so will get us rid of Melnyk.
     
  13. Pierre in Orleans

    Pierre in Orleans Registered User

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    Boycotting Sens games is realistic. Boycotting events at the CTC and his other revenue avenues is not when it comes to having any sort of effect on Euge
     
  14. Peptic Balcers

    Peptic Balcers Registered User

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    And the great pumpkin is gonna come this year too, you'll see!
     
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  15. harrisb

    harrisb Registered User

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    You're really going to have to help me out with this one given there are articles out there stating the exact opposite for an NHL franchise. The money is in the venue and other events so it will most definitely hurt him. One of the lowest attendance franchises (Panthers) managed to still turn a profit in the lockout year, why? It's due to the venue and other events, really simple. You can't hurt him by nibbling at his fingertips, go for the heart (arena) and head (sponsors, TV deals). Teams lose money all over the league however the operating companies make huge bank when all entities are consolidated.

    NHL Lockout: Why do billionaires keep buying teams that lose money? (Updated)
     
  16. PeterSidorkiewicz

    PeterSidorkiewicz HFWF Tourney Undisputed Champion

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    I think he means it’s not realistic to think people are going to boycott non hockey events at the CTC.
     
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  17. ThePriorityDeal

    ThePriorityDeal Old School Rat Rink

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    There are other events at the CTC? I see the occasional ad while driving by the CTC for things that look almost like parodies of real events - musical acts I've never heard of or, most recently, former Mouseketeer Justin Timberlake's "Man of the Woods" tour? How the hell can a guy who's been a Hollywood star since his pre-teen days be a man of the woods? It must be a joke.
     
  18. topshelf15

    topshelf15 Registered User

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    He doesnt have one....He doesnt give two ****s,and will spend his time on his island paradise telling his servant to keep cutting ....
     
  19. Gesus

    Gesus Melnyk is Trump Jr.

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    I'm concerned that at this point the actions from the organization are in spite of the fans. He's an egomaniac, and he will probably hang on until the bitter end.
     
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  20. Tnuoc Alucard

    Tnuoc Alucard Registered User

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    I read in the paper, last week that the average Ticket price in Ottawa is $71.00 CAD.

    So do the math, average ticket price X average attendance = Y

    Y x 41 home games = ?
     
  21. NorthCoast

    NorthCoast Registered User

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    Low attendance will do nothing. TV money and payroll slashing will be enough to get by.

    The NHL will do nothing. Baring some total out of bounds action (racists slur, meetoo incedent, etc) the NHl will stand by it's owners.

    Awareness campaigns will not have any effect. EM is an egomaniac who doesn't give a $#!! plus none of these billionaires will give any though to the public when making a billion dollar decision.

    The critical issue is Lebreton. It has milestones and other parties that will begin to get majorly pissed if EM starts to cause real delays because he can't make the money work. Once it gets to a point where he has to put up or shut up, then he will be forced to sell because the value of the team in lebreton is a lot more than it is in a 20 year old CTC.

    Could be this year, could take 2-3 years. Costs are being lowered so he is ready to hold his price until the Lebreton project pushes his hand.
     
  22. Tnuoc Alucard

    Tnuoc Alucard Registered User

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    Events
    Canadian Tire Centre - Ottawa, Canada
     
  23. ThePriorityDeal

    ThePriorityDeal Old School Rat Rink

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  24. Tnuoc Alucard

    Tnuoc Alucard Registered User

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    Elton John, Justin Timberlake, Joe Bonamassa, Fleetwood Mac, The Harlem Globetrotters, Cher, Carrie Underwood and other events (for kids) are not considered "crap" by most people
     
  25. ThePriorityDeal

    ThePriorityDeal Old School Rat Rink

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    Moldy old acts that have been around for 50 years, a boy bander, a reality show star, and someone I've never heard of before are all crap.
     
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