Speculation: Melnyk and speculating about the sale of the team

[InTkachukWeTrust]

If only Melnyk invested the absolute minimum in marketing this team would probably do alright.

There’s literally zero hype around this franchise.

 

[InTkachukWeTrust]

If I’m the next owners I’m building a statue of Alfredsson on the front lawn of parliament.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

If only Melnyk invested the absolute minimum in marketing this team would probably do alright.

There’s literally zero hype around this franchise.

That is the most interesting part; what is he thinking?!?

I seriously think there must be a reason to totally collapse the entire brand in two years.

Weird shit

 

[InTkachukWeTrust]

That is the most interesting part; what is he thinking?!?

I seriously think there must be a reason to totally collapse the entire brand in two years.

Weird ****

I can’t figure out what he’s trying to do. Definitely not trying to run a successful hockey team...

Maybe he’s using the team as a cash cow to pull loans for his other businesses or he wants the banks to reposes it and he’ll get like 500 mil for the team + the building and forget about the debt

It’s weird shit for sure

 

[supsens]

I can’t figure out what he’s trying to do. Definitely not trying to run a successful hockey team...

Maybe he’s using the team as a cash cow to pull loans for his other businesses or he wants the banks to reposes it and he’ll get like 500 mil for the team + the building and forget about the debt

It’s weird **** for sure

Zero playoff revenue and a last place team with a half empty rink means less money to go around. Why pay an extra 10-15 million a year for no reason? He’s trying to not lose 10 million a year on a product he can’t sell.
I have no clue if he will ever spend but I can’t see this going on forever, something has to give

 

[Calvin123]

That is the most interesting part; what is he thinking?!?

I seriously think there must be a reason to totally collapse the entire brand in two years.

Weird ****

While the it has collapsed over the past couple years, it's been fading for a long time, and the Senators seemingly have done nothing in that time to really build the brand.

About 12 years ago I started working for a large company that has one of the better boxes at the arena. When I started, it was almost impossible to get the box allocated to you, as it was so popular, and if you did you were turning people (clients) away it filled so fast. By the time I left two years ago, the company was struggling to fill the box most games. I also see this in my kids and their friends. Many of them started as Sens fans (because there parents were sens fan), but as they got old enough adopted other teams as there was nothing exciting about the Sentators.

It's not hard to see why. Over the past 10 years or so, there's been very little to be excited about with the Senators. Karlsson and Stone were fantastic, but were never supported by enough good players around them to make the team itself very interesting to watch on a consistent basis.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

While the it has collapsed over the past couple years, it's been fading for a long time, and the Senators seemingly have done nothing in that time to really build the brand.

About 12 years ago I started working for a large company that has one of the better boxes at the arena. When I started, it was almost impossible to get the box allocated to you, as it was so popular, and if you did you were turning people (clients) away it filled so fast. By the time I left two years ago, the company was struggling to fill the box most games. I also see this in my kids and their friends. Many of them started as Sens fans (because there parents were sens fan), but as they got old enough adopted other teams as there was nothing exciting about the Sentators.

It's not hard to see why. Over the past 10 years or so, there's been very little to be excited about with the Senators. Karlsson and Stone were fantastic, but were never supported by enough good players around them to make the team itself very interesting to watch on a consistent basis.

If it was allowed, I would have putting advertising mocking leafs and habs fans during the days when we always beat them... kinda like the old VW ads that had awesome humour to them

You know what ad agencies like that cost? More than our team budget I am sure

 

[BonkTastic]

I can’t figure out what he’s trying to do. Definitely not trying to run a successful hockey team...

Maybe he’s using the team as a cash cow to pull loans for his other businesses or he wants the banks to reposes it and he’ll get like 500 mil for the team + the building and forget about the debt

It’s weird **** for sure

I wouldn't doubt that he thinks he's smarter than everyone else in any room he's in, and he's had so many yes-men surrounding him for so long who have had the fear of god put in them to ever dare contradict him, that he actually thinks that a pro hockey team can operate like this - and no one has the guts to tell him otherwise, and those that try are quickly gotten rid of.

It's obviously just an educated guess, but it would explain so much, including the cavalcade of executives this team has blown through in the last half decade.

 

[topshelf15]

I called it last year: "I'm worried things could get a lot uglier before they get better" , and I'll call it again this year. This is all a case of Melnyk vs. "the Vultures".

I think it's painfully obvious that Melnyk is looking to sell, but he's looking to get maximum value for the team. My suspicion is that Laliberte and the devcore peeps see Melnyk as weak, and believe they have an opportunity to scoop up an NHL on the cheap. They probably believe Melnyk can no longer afford to run the team and it's only a matter of time before Melnyk cries uncle and gives in to a less-than-full-value sale. If Melnyk can prove he can infact run the team without drowning, he has more power at the negotiating table to demand more for the team.

Speculation is that the $135m loaned to Melnyk in June 2018 was from the prospective buyers, with a right of first refusal. This basically means that if Melnyk sells, they get first dibs on the team. This was a play by the buyers to get their foot in the door, and give Melnyk just enough rope to hang himself with, but not enough to rescue him. Now Melnyk's goal is to prove that he can run the team without drowning so that he has the power to demand full value for the team. Hence the extreme cuts to everything and throwing everything overboard to stay afloat. Remember, the strongest asset is any negotiation is the ability to walk away. If Melnyk is pinned in a corner and has to sell, he can't ask for full value.

Lebreton was another failure that's pinned Melnyk further into a corner. Again, Melnyk needs to put a facade and say that it doesn't matter, and that the Sens can still play in Kanata (see: comments about staying in Kanada at the outdoor game).

Again, it's all a matter of when, not if he sells the team. This is all a big dick billionaire standoff. I don't know if this end this year.

Pretty much ,billionaires dont become billionaires by not gaining or saving every dollar they can....

 

[GrantLemons]

I wouldn't doubt that he thinks he's smarter than everyone else in any room he's in, and he's had so many yes-men surrounding him for so long who have had the fear of god put in them to ever dare contradict him, that he actually thinks that a pro hockey team can operate like this - and no one has the guts to tell him otherwise, and those that try are quickly gotten rid of.

It's obviously just an educated guess, but it would explain so much, including the cavalcade of executives this team has blown through in the last half decade.

He's owned the team long enough now that he undoubtedly thinks he knows more than enough about the business that he can run it the way it currently stands.

When someones ego is that big, they do and think some really stupid things, and don't care to change based on anyone's feedback or enlist anyone to help (because they know how to do everything).

It's an insanely toxic personality type for any business, especially when it's that high up on the totem pole.

Given he has no real plan outside of "cut operating expenses to the bone, and take it day by day", I think it's going to come down to one day where he wakes up and says to himself "I just don't want to deal with this anymore".

 

[GrantLemons]

I called it last year: "I'm worried things could get a lot uglier before they get better" , and I'll call it again this year. This is all a case of Melnyk vs. "the Vultures".

I think it's painfully obvious that Melnyk is looking to sell, but he's looking to get maximum value for the team. My suspicion is that Laliberte and the devcore peeps see Melnyk as weak, and believe they have an opportunity to scoop up an NHL on the cheap. They probably believe Melnyk can no longer afford to run the team and it's only a matter of time before Melnyk cries uncle and gives in to a less-than-full-value sale. If Melnyk can prove he can infact run the team without drowning, he has more power at the negotiating table to demand more for the team.

Speculation is that the $135m loaned to Melnyk in June 2018 was from the prospective buyers, with a right of first refusal. This basically means that if Melnyk sells, they get first dibs on the team. This was a play by the buyers to get their foot in the door, and give Melnyk just enough rope to hang himself with, but not enough to rescue him. Now Melnyk's goal is to prove that he can run the team without drowning so that he has the power to demand full value for the team. Hence the extreme cuts to everything and throwing everything overboard to stay afloat. Remember, the strongest asset is any negotiation is the ability to walk away. If Melnyk is pinned in a corner and has to sell, he can't ask for full value.

Lebreton was another failure that's pinned Melnyk further into a corner. Again, Melnyk needs to put a facade and say that it doesn't matter, and that the Sens can still play in Kanata (see: comments about staying in Kanada at the outdoor game).

Again, it's all a matter of when, not if he sells the team. This is all a big dick billionaire standoff. I don't know if this end this year.

Pretty interesting. You have to wonder if Eugene would have been able to secure that loan if he hadn't conceded a right of first refusal. Ie. was it at all feasible that he could possibly secure a loan of that size, given the debt the Sens carried, and Eugene's own bleak (for a billionaire) financial outlook? That would give some indication of whether that loan came with the aforementioned conditions.

 

[swiftwin]

He's owned the team long enough now that he undoubtedly thinks he knows more than enough about the business that he can run it the way it currently stands.

When someones ego is that big, they do and think some really stupid things, and don't care to change based on anyone's feedback or enlist anyone to help (because they know how to do everything).

It's an insanely toxic personality type for any business, especially when it's that high up on the totem pole.

Given he has no real plan outside of "cut operating expenses to the bone, and take it day by day", I think it's going to come down to one day where he wakes up and says to himself "I just don't want to deal with this anymore".

I think he just doesn't give a shit about the hockey ops side of things, nor does he give a shit about how the business is being run.

His businessman ego is overpowering his hockey ego. Right now, he's sitting on an appreciating asset (the franchise), with the potential to appreciate by a huge amount (new arena). But he's too broke to run it, and is drowning in debt. A some are throwing him low-ball offers, knowing he can't afford to keep the team without going bankrupt.

Basically my interpretation of what's happening(with random made up numbers)....

Laliberte: Hey, I heard you're too broke to run the Sens. I'll give you $400m for it.
Melnyk: Nope, the team is worth atleast $850m, especially with land for the new arena given to me. Take it or leave it.
Laliberte: Bruh, you can't afford to keep the team running, nor can you afford the arena, you have to sell the team or you'll go bankrupt. You might as well take my offer.
Melnyk: Nope, I just need a small loan and I'll right the ship, I can hold on to this team (an appreciating asset) as long as I need to.
**Laliberte does the math, and recognizes that there's no way Melnyk can keep himself and the team afloat, even with a loan, especially with Karlsson, Stone, etc. contracts expiring, and a salary cap of $60M+**
Laliberte: Oh really? I'll call your bluff. Here's $135m, but if you sell the team, you have to offer it to me first.
Melnyk: Perfect. Just watch me....
**Melnyk sells Karlsson, Stone, Duchene, and manages to have a payroll $15m under the cap**

Now we're at a total stalemate. I think Melnyk has proven that he can infact run the team in the short and medium term without going bankrupt. But on the other hand, he failed to build the arena, putting the long term viability of the team under Melnyk at risk. The NCC appears to have fast tracked the land to Devcore "with an open spot for an arena". Both sides are trying to wait eachother out. Devcore has no reason to give in to Melnyk's demands since the longer they wait, the older CTC becomes, and the more leverage they have since they have the obvious location for the new arena. Melnyk has no reason to give in because he can keep the team afloat as long as he wants, and the franchise's value will continue to appreciate.

 

[Crosside]

I think he just doesn't give a **** about the hockey ops side of things, nor does he give a **** about how the business is being run.

His businessman ego is overpowering his hockey ego. Right now, he's sitting on an appreciating asset (the franchise), with the potential to appreciate by a huge amount (new arena). But he's too broke to run it, and is drowning in debt. A some are throwing him low-ball offers, knowing he can't afford to keep the team without going bankrupt.

Basically my interpretation of what's happening(with random made up numbers)....

Laliberte: Hey, I heard you're too broke to run the Sens. I'll give you $400m for it.
Melnyk: Nope, the team is worth atleast $850m, especially with land for the new arena given to me. Take it or leave it.
Laliberte: Bruh, you can't afford to keep the team running, nor can you afford the arena, you have to sell the team or you'll go bankrupt. You might as well take my offer.
Melnyk: Nope, I just need a small loan and I'll right the ship, I can hold on to this team (an appreciating asset) as long as I need to.
**Laliberte does the math, and recognizes that there's no way Melnyk can keep himself and the team afloat, even with a loan, especially with Karlsson, Stone, etc. contracts expiring, and a salary cap of $60M+**
Laliberte: Oh really? I'll call your bluff. Here's $135m, but if you sell the team, you have to offer it to me first.
Melnyk: Perfect. Just watch me....
**Melnyk sells Karlsson, Stone, Duchene, and manages to have a payroll $15m under the cap**

Now we're at a total stalemate. I think Melnyk has proven that he can infact run the team in the short and medium term without going bankrupt. But on the other hand, he failed to build the arena, putting the long term viability of the team under Melnyk at risk. The NCC appears to have fast tracked the land to Devcore "with an open spot for an arena". Both sides are trying to wait eachother out. Devcore has no reason to give in to Melnyk's demands since the longer they wait, the older CTC becomes, and the more leverage they have since they have the obvious location for the new arena. Melnyk has no reason to give in because he can keep the team afloat as long as he wants, and the franchise's value will continue to appreciate.

It s was reported that Melnyk have accepted a offer of 425 M but it s Bettman that nixed the deal. Don t know why !!!

 

[swiftwin]

It s was reported that Melnyk have accepted a offer of 425 M but it s Bettman that nixed the deal. Don t know why !!!

Not sure if I believe that one, but it's also a possibility.

It would make sense for Bettman to nix it. If a team was sold for that little, it would massively depress the value of the whole league.

It also lines up with the rumor that the NHL stepped in and loaned the Sens some money a couple seasons ago (maybe as compensation for nixing that deal?).

But that's all just pure speculation.

 

[Crosside]

Not sure if I believe that one, but it's also a possibility.

It would make sense for Bettman to nix it. If a team was sold for that little, it would massively depress the value of the whole league.

It also lines up with the rumor that the NHL stepped in and loaned the Sens some money a couple seasons ago (maybe as compensation for nixing that deal?).

But that's all just pure speculation.

But now if the rumor are true , he accept the deal of Arizona for 380 M

 

[Upgrayedd]

The intended end game of this charade should we ever become privy, will be fascinating! I can't for the life of me see what the plan is now and moving forward outside of the speculation here regarding a seemingly close ish sale and minimizing any and all costs.

 

[swiftwin]

Pretty interesting. You have to wonder if Eugene would have been able to secure that loan if he hadn't conceded a right of first refusal. Ie. was it at all feasible that he could possibly secure a loan of that size, given the debt the Sens carried, and Eugene's own bleak (for a billionaire) financial outlook? That would give some indication of whether that loan came with the aforementioned conditions.

Hiiighly doubt it. Considering the whole Scotiabank fiasco. He ripped up the arena naming right contract because they wouldn't give him a loan, so we with Canadian Tire. Melnyk doesn't even appear on the list of billionaires anymore. Let's assume he's at like $900m. The Sens are worth $435m, which is an illiquid asset. Melnyk without the Sens is worth less than $500m. He's also got a ton of other illiquid assets in Barbados and stuff. He's flat out broke.

Look at it this way: He was a multi-billionaire when he bought the Sens for $127m in 2003. Less than 10% of his net worth. Now the Sens appear to be more than 50% of his net worth. That's insane.

 

[Stylizer1]

Hiiighly doubt it. Considering the whole Scotiabank fiasco. He ripped up the arena naming right contract because they wouldn't give him a loan, so we with Canadian Tire. Melnyk doesn't even appear on the list of billionaires anymore. Let's assume he's at like $900m. The Sens are worth $435m, which is an illiquid asset. Melnyk without the Sens is worth less than $500m. He's also got a ton of other illiquid assets in Barbados and stuff. He's flat out broke.

Look at it this way: He was a multi-billionaire when he bought the Sens for $127m in 2003. Less than 10% of his net worth. Now the Sens appear to be more than 50% of his net worth. That's insane.

Multi billionaire? Maybe in Canadian Tire money.

 

[SENATOR]

What we have so far to conclude:
Melnyk is not interested to run a successful franchise. It is because of two outcomes. Nothing else comes to mind.

-Wants to relocate and sell the franchise
-Wants to sell the franchise, without relocating, waiting patiently for 20 millions bonanza payout to pocket it.
And show us a middle finger.

 

[Cosmix]

He's owned the team long enough now that he undoubtedly thinks he knows more than enough about the business that he can run it the way it currently stands.

When someones ego is that big, they do and think some really stupid things, and don't care to change based on anyone's feedback or enlist anyone to help (because they know how to do everything).

It's an insanely toxic personality type for any business, especially when it's that high up on the totem pole.

Given he has no real plan outside of "cut operating expenses to the bone, and take it day by day", I think it's going to come down to one day where he wakes up and says to himself "I just don't want to deal with this anymore".

You forgot the other main part of the future plan: FYOUS !

 

[JD1]

Hiiighly doubt it. Considering the whole Scotiabank fiasco. He ripped up the arena naming right contract because they wouldn't give him a loan, so we with Canadian Tire. Melnyk doesn't even appear on the list of billionaires anymore. Let's assume he's at like $900m. The Sens are worth $435m, which is an illiquid asset. Melnyk without the Sens is worth less than $500m. He's also got a ton of other illiquid assets in Barbados and stuff. He's flat out broke.

Look at it this way: He was a multi-billionaire when he bought the Sens for $127m in 2003. Less than 10% of his net worth. Now the Sens appear to be more than 50% of his net worth. That's insane.

Hiiighly doubt it. Considering the whole Scotiabank fiasco. He ripped up the arena naming right contract because they wouldn't give him a loan, so we with Canadian Tire. Melnyk doesn't even appear on the list of billionaires anymore. Let's assume he's at like $900m. The Sens are worth $435m, which is an illiquid asset. Melnyk without the Sens is worth less than $500m. He's also got a ton of other illiquid assets in Barbados and stuff. He's flat out broke.

Look at it this way: He was a multi-billionaire when he bought the Sens for $127m in 2003. Less than 10% of his net worth. Now the Sens appear to be more than 50% of his net worth. That's insane.

There a few things that are off in this post.

First, he didn't tear up the Scotiabank contract. He had an out clause and exercised it for a better deal.

Second, net worth is assets minus liabilities. If rumours of the debt he carries on the franchise are true, let's say around 250M, then he's likely getting say 350M of net worth accredited to any of these types of lists.

Your premise is true....the Sens are far more of his net worth today than when he bought it but your calls are a bit off

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

It's not hard to see why. Over the past 10 years or so, there's been very little to be excited about with the Senators. Karlsson and Stone were fantastic, but were never supported by enough good players around them to make the team itself very interesting to watch on a consistent basis.

Last 10 years?

Maybe the last 2 seasons......... heck there was the Hamburglar Run in 2015, and there was the 2017 playoff run, that saw the Sens play right though to game 7 in the ECF, and being one double overtime goal away from there second trip to the SCF ............. I though both these events were easy to get "excited" about.

Is there any chance you missed these two events?

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

It s was reported that Melnyk have accepted a offer of 425 M but it s Bettman that nixed the deal. Don t know why !!!

Bettman himself cannot "nix" a deal, only the BOG can do that, by not approving of a sale, as far as I know.

Yeah, there was a rumour, and there was an explanation, but more importantly there was a statement that EM has no desire to sell the Franchise.

“Eugene has no interest in selling the Senators. Offers are made for NHL teams all the time. Doesn’t really mean anything.”

Deputy commissioner Bill Daly
​

So not much stock was put into that rumour, at that time, and less so today.

 

[Boud]

Bettman himself cannot "nix" a deal, only the BOG can do that, by not approving of a sale, as far as I know.

Yeah, there was a rumour, and there was an explanation, but more importantly there was a statement that EM has no desire to sell the Franchise.

“Eugene has no interest in selling the Senators. Offers are made for NHL teams all the time. Doesn’t really mean anything.”

Deputy commissioner Bill Daly
​

So not much stock was put into that rumour, at that time, and less so today.

One thing every man learns in his life is that you can't take what's said publicly and just assume everything is true.

One day you'll learn, but not today.

 

[Micklebot]

Bettman himself cannot "nix" a deal, only the BOG can do that, by not approving of a sale, as far as I know.

Yeah, there was a rumour, and there was an explanation, but more importantly there was a statement that EM has no desire to sell the Franchise.

“Eugene has no interest in selling the Senators. Offers are made for NHL teams all the time. Doesn’t really mean anything.”

Deputy commissioner Bill Daly
​

So not much stock was put into that rumour, at that time, and less so today.

Bettman is known to have a lot of influence of the BOG. Particularly in a scenario like this it would not shock me if he threw his weight around to rally the troops. Think of him as a party whip combined with the strat level decision maker; technically the MPs have the right to vote however they want, but the reality is the strategic decisions are made above their heads.