McMullet's Final Top-100 for 2020 + New Ranking System

ConnorMcMullet

#12 Colby Cave
Jun 10, 2017
10,293
18,030
I know I said it was final when I last posted my ranking a month-and-a-half ago, but I couldn't help but continue to watch these prospects. My rankings have changed a fair bit since then, and I also decided to try something new with this set of rankings: I gave each prospect a number grade and a letter grade. The number grade, 10 being the highest possible, is the prospect's ceiling, which I describe. The letter grade, A being the highest, is how likely they are to reach that ceiling.

Without further ado,


RankPlayerOverviewCeilingGrade
1Alexis LafreniereThe clear #1 pick in Alexis Lafreniere has a rare blend of skill, smarts, and size to go along with his work-ethic. Almost a sure bet to become a star player in the NHL.Star top-line LWer. A bigger Marchand is my favourite comparison for him.9A
TIER DROP............
2Tim
Stutzle
The 1st ranking was the easiest in my list for me; the 2nd may be the toughest. Byfield's package is very difficult to pass on, but I'd take Stutzle at 2. Tim Stutzle is an electrifying player that brings fans out of their seats with his skating, passing, and hands. He produced impressive numbers playing against men in the DEL.Point-per-game top-line C is his upside; think a Barzal/Aho hybrid.9B
3Quinton
Byfield
Byfield's upside is as high as any in this draft. When was the last time a prospect had his combination of size, skill, and skating? OHL defensemen are simply unable to manage the 6'4, 214 lbs center.Point-per-game top-line C. I don’t see the Malkin comparison, but he could very well be a star. 9B
4Lucas
Raymond
When the puck is on his stick, Raymond is one of the most fun players in the draft to watch. His hands and edgework allows him to make defensemen look silly. His passing is top-notch and his shot is dangerous, even if it could use some more power.Top-line W in the mold of Panarin/Marner.9C
5Cole
Perfetti
If I was ranking purely based on upside, Perfetti would be a clear top-5 prospect. His vision and shot accuracy are absolutely elite. Apart from Lafreniere, no other 2020 draftee is as dangerous a passer and shooter. His size and skating make him a riskier selection than those ranked above him, though.Star top-line offensive winger.9D
6Jamie
Drysdale
Smooth is the word to describe Drysdale. His skating and smarts are both elite, and his defensive ability is great for his age. If he manages to bulk up, he's a good bet to become a #1 defenseman. More of a 2-way defenseman than an offensive one.All-around #2 defenseman.8B
7Marco
Rossi
Based on his stats alone, Marco Rossi would be up there for 1st overall. Rossi is one of the smartest players in the draft, is an excellent passer, and possesses quick hands. His lack of size and average skating could hold him back, however.Low-end top-line C8B
8Jack
Quinn
Quinn is up there with Holtz for best goal-scorer in the draft. His shot isn't quite as good but he is better at getting open and finding dangerous scoring areas. His defensive game is superior to Holtz's right now and likely has a slightly higher floor, but also a slightly lower ceiling. Something that is interesting to not with Quinn is that he was not playing competitive hockey a few years ago. Even last year, Quinn wasn't on anyone's radar to get drafted at all let alone in the top-10. If his development curve continues along this path, watch out.Ceiling is a top-line goal-scoring winger.8B
9Seth
Jarvis
Seth Jarvis exploded in the 2nd half of the season, finishing 2nd in points behind Adam Beckman. His skating is excellent, along with above-average passing and shooting. His work-ethic is remarkable as well.Dynamic and energetic top-line winger.8B
10Alexander
Holtz
Holtz's shot is likely best in the draft. His shot selection, however, leaves a lot to be desired, as does his defensive game. Playmaking and skating aren't stand-out qualities of his but aren't poor either. Better production in the SHL than fellow Swedes Raymond and Gunler.Top-line goal-scoring winger.8B
TIER DROP............
11Lukas
Reichel
Reichel put up 24 points in 42 games against men in the DEL. As a skinny 17-year old. His IQ in the offensive zone is evident every shift. His passing and shot are both dangerous and his ability to get open is remarkable.Complementary top-line winger.8C
12Connor
Zary
Connor Zary is one of the safest bets to take in this range. While no single attribute really stands out about his game, there are no clear weaknesses either. He is a very good playmaker that can finish off a play effectively as well.High-end 2C.7B
13Jake
Sanderson
Sanderson’s gap control and defensive stick is excellent for a 17 year-old. His skating is smooth and effective though I would not call him explosive. Efficient passer, but I don’t think his offensive upside warrants a top-10 pick. Nevertheless, pretty safe bet to be a quality NHL defensemen.#2/3D.7B
14Dawson
Mercer
I doubt he will become a center in the NHL, but that’s not a bad thing. Dawson Mercer is a dangerous sniper that possesses quick hands and is an effective passer. Skating could use work but it isn’t a weakness. Solid two-way game.High-end top-6 winger.7B
15Yaroslav
Askarov
I don’t know what to think of Askarov. It is very difficult to predict how goalies will turn out. I am not adept at evaluating a goalie’s talent, but he seems sort of frantic in net while someone like Knight last year or Wallstedt next year seems much calmer. His athleticism is certainly noteworthy though and he is almost impossible to beat down low.Quality starting goaltender8C
16Brayden
Schneider
Another safe bet to be an effective NHL defenseman. Schneider’s physicality and defensive game paired with great straight-line speed makes him a nightmare for forwards to face. Heavy wrist shot but his slapshot could use work. His edgework, which sometimes allows him to be exposed by quicker forwards, could also use improvement.#2/3D7B
17Anton
Lundell
I just don’t see what others do with Lundell. He’s a very efficient player with good defensive ability but I don't see the offensive upside to justify a top-10 pick. I don’t think his floor is as high as others say either, as his skating needs lots of work. I wouldn't be surprised if he fails to get to the level people are expecting him to. He has a laser of a wrist shot, however, and overall I feel his shooting is an underrated aspect of his game.Strong two-way 2C.7B
18Hendrix
Lapierre
A stand-out at the Hlinka Gretzky, Lapierre is a creative center with outstanding playmaking ability and a strong two-way game. Lapierre and Mercer will form one of the CHL’s most dynamic duos next season. His lack of proven goal-scoring ability and, most notably, his concussion history prevents him from being higher up on my list.High-end 2C.8C
19Dylan
Holloway
Slightly disappointing season on a very disappointing Wisconsin team. His speed, hands, and work-ethic are his calling traits. While he may not possess top-line offensive upside, he could become a dependable middle/top-6 winger or center. He isn't afraid to throw a big hit.Middle-6 C or top-6 winger.7B
TIER DROP............
20Rodion AmirovI don’t think Amirov will be a line driver, but he could be a very good play supporter. He's agile, deceptive, owns a good shot, and is one of the top players in the draft at driving possession. He could use to improve his speed, but he is a good overall skater. Mature two-way player already.2-way top-6 winger.7B
21Noel
Gunler
Noel Gunler is a Swedish sniper that had an impressive year in the SHL. He possesses a heavy and accurate shot and makes a lot of smart little plays in transition and in the offensive zone. I don't see an issue with his compete level and am not bumping him down for being left off Sweden's U18 team. His inconsistencies bump him down my ranking.Top-line goal-scoring winger.8C
22John-Jason
Peterka
The 3rd German in my 1st round has speed, a heavy shot, and good two-way ability. He had a very impressive showing at the World Juniors playing with Tim Stutzle. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Peterka transfer over to London of the OHL next year if his ice time in Germany isn’t raised. Someone like Jason Zucker might be his ceiling.High-end top-6 all-around winger.7B
23Mavrik
Bourque
Bourque creates chances at an insanely high rate. His IQ and vision along with quick hands and a dangerous shot make him one of the better offensive forwards in this range. Needs to improve skating and defensive consistency to get to the level he is capable of in the NHL.High-end top-6 all-around winger.8C
24Ozzy WiesblattWiesblatt plays a feisty game coupled with really good hands. His agility is impressive and his production was great this year on a very good Prince Albert team. Lots of skill and speed and plays a pretty mature game already, but he'll need to build up strength. Also notable is that his siblings are named Orca, Oasiz, Ocean, and Oceania.High-end top-6 winger.7B
25Jan
Mysak
Jan Mysak is a two-way forward that adapted quickly to the OHL. I don’t think it is an exaggeration to say he is almost as dangerous on the penalty kill as he is at even strength. His speed and two-way ability make him a safe bet to be an effective NHL winger, but his offensive IQ isn’t as high as others in this range. He is also more of a north-south player than I’d like.High-end top-6 two-way winger.7B
26Jacob
Perreault
Like Bourque, Perrealt possesses lots of upside but is also a risky selection. His shot is unbelievable and his skating in a straight-line is remarkable, but he is often caught trying to do too much offensively or abandoning coverage defensively. I doubt he sticks at center in the NHL.Top-line goal-scoring forward.8D
27Tyson
Foerster
One of the best goal-scorers in the draft. He's got a great release on his wrist shot and has a killer one-timer on the left half-wall. Skating is a weakness but he's got plenty of time to work on that. Foerster was a top-3 player at the Top-Prospects Game.Top-line goal-scoring winger.8D
28Kaiden
Guhle
Great skater, good defensively, decent offensively. I like his physicality but don't see anything more than a #3/4D, which would still be a great outcome at 26th overall.2nd pairing defenseman.7B
TIER DROP............
29Jake
Neighbours
I love the way Neighbours plays. He isn't afraid to use his body and plays a smart and gritty game. He could be a very effective complementary winger at the next level. Neighbours was the best player on his line with Byfield and Mercer at the Top Prospects Game.2nd line winger.6B
30Ryan O'RourkeVery smart defensive defenseman that isn't afraid to throw a hit. Not much offensive upside but his no nonsense approach makes him a good bet to be a supportive #4 defenseman.Defensive #4 defenseman.6B
31Helge
Grans
Helge Grans is a very good passer that creates with his shot. Good in transition under pressure but tends to break down when he opens up his game more offensively. His lack of strength often costs his team defensively.2nd pairing offensive defenseman.7C
32Tristen RobinsWell-rounded center with good compete level and playmaking ability. Can finish off plays nearly as well as he creates them. Even if he doesn’t hit his potential, I think he’ll carve out a career as a bottom-6 forward.Swiss-Army knife top-6 W or middle-6 C.6B
33William
Wallinder
Very, very raw, but his skating and puck-handling are insane for a guy his size. One of the younger players in the draft so there is lots of room to improve. If his game matures and he cleans up his defensive game, his ceiling is almost limitless.Top-pairing defenseman.8D
34Marat
Khusnutdinov
I'm higher on Khusnutdinov than most. He's very fun to watch and it's even more fun listening to others try to pronounce his last name. Skilled, dynamic center with great skating, passing, and hands while being a very dependable two-way player. Lack of size and "The Russian Factor" are working against him.High-end energy 2nd line C/W.7C
35Theodor NiederbachOutstanding playmaker that missed an entire year of development in 2018-19 due to injuries. His health concerns along with his style of play remind me a lot of Hendrix Lapierre. A team could get a steal if he falls to the late 2nd or 3rd.2nd line center.7C
36Topi
Niemela
Niemela is a smooth defenseman that does everything at a high-level. Efficient passer and he shoots for tips and rebounds effectively. Won’t stand out too much but that isn’t a bad thing.2nd pairing all-around defenseman.7C
37Ridly GreigI really like Greig's game. He's just 5'11 and quite skinny but plays a gritty game that you would expect out of someone much bigger. Excellent vision and just gets better when the pressure gets higher. Keep in mind he’s an August birthdate, so plenty of time for him to improve.Hard-to-play-against top-6 winger or middle-6 center.6B
38Justin
Barron
Everything that could have went wrong for Justin Barron this year did. He missed time with a blood clot and, by his standards, played poorly for the rest of the year. I do believe in his tools, though. He is a smooth skating defenseman that can QB a PP and not be a liability in his own end. Playing on a horrific Mooseheads team this year probably hurt his stock.2nd pairing offensive defenseman.7C
39Brendan BrissonGood playmaker with a very heavy one-timer. Skating isn't bad but could use some work. Average size. Defensive game isn't shabby. For a player in this range, he's a good bet to become a top-6 forward2nd line forward.7C
TIER DROP............
40Luke EvangelistaSlight winger that can do it all. Evangelista is shifty and a good playmaker that flashes his high skill every once in a while. A safe pick, but his upside is not bad at all.2nd line winger.6B
41Daniil GushchinOne of the more underrated players in the draft. He is a small and speedy winger that is as dangerous a scorer as he is a playmaker. Very good defensive player too. Gushchin was far and away the best player on his team this year.Top-6 winger, comparable to Cam Atkinson.7D
42Emil HeinamenEmil Heinamen has one of the highest floors in this range of players. Heinamen uses his size, speed, and excellent forechecking abilities to make life difficult for his opponents. He is also a capable goal scorer.Middle-6 forward.5B
43Thomas BordeleauOne of the best offensive players in this range. His vision and playmaking are top-notch, and he has an underrated shot to go along with it. His skating is good but could use some work, as could his defensive game.Top-6 winger.6C
44Martin ChromiakComplementary scorer that flashes talent every once in a while. He was a perfect fit on a line with Wright and Wisdom, so expect great production from him next year.Complementary scoring winger.6C
45Jeremie
Poirier
I’m giving Jeremie Poirier, perhaps the most polarizing player in the draft class, my first “F” on this list. His skating and hands are unreal, but his defensive play is a very real concern. His shot is great, his shot selection is not so great. Passing is nothing special. Huge upside, but I don’t think it is likely he reaches it.Top pairing offensive defenseman.8F
46Daniel TorgerssonBack to back Frolunda forwards here. Torgersson, a linemate of Niederbach, is a goal scorer with great size and speed along with underrated mitts and vision. He projects as more of a complementary player bit has a higher floor.2nd line scoring winger.6C
47William VilleneuveHe was better than Poirier this year on the same defensive pairing. Right now he's easily a top-10 defenseman in the draft but I question how much room there is for him to improve. Skating has some major question marks.Two-way #4D.6C
48Roni HirvonenSmall but skilled, Hirvonen was impressive in his stint in the Liiga. His hands are electric and he's a dangerous passer. Needs to gain strength if he wants to have more of an impact at higher levels.2nd line center.7D
49Emil AndraeAndrae is an undersized defenseman with great hands and the ability to create from the back-end. His size+skating combo is what keeps him this low on my list.2nd-pairing defenseman.7D
50Alexander PashinAnother “F” here, but that’s just indicative of how high his upside is, even if it’s unlikely he gets there. His hands and skating are high-end, but his lack of size and strength work against him.Electric top-line winger.8F
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

51. Ty Tullio
52. Sam Colangelo
53. Kasper Simontaival
54. Evan Vierling
55. Maxim Groshev
56. Dmitri Rashevsky
57. Ronan Seeley
58. Roby Jarventie
59. Brandon Coe
60. Brock Faber

61. Zion Nybeck
62. Cross Hanas
63. Zayde Wisdom
64. Tyler Kleven
65. Carter Savoie
66. Wyatt Kaiser
67. Ian Moore
68. Brett Berard
69. Yan Kuznetsov
70. Jean-Luc Foudy
71. Drew Commesso
72. Joel Blomqvist
73. Viktor Persson
74. Lucas Cormier
75. Jack Finley
76. Will Cuylle

77. Dylan Garand
78. Devon Levi
79. Justin Sourdif
80. Ruben Rafkin
81. Dmitri Ovchinnikov
82. Connor McClennon
83. Eamon Powell
84. Jaromir Pytlik
85. Veeti Miettinen
86. Shakir Mukhamadulin
87. Nico Daws
88. Eemil Viro
89. Maxim Beryozkin
90. Ty Smilanic
91. Michael Benning
92. Vasili Ponomaryev
93. Donavan Sebrango
94. Alex Cotton
95. Thimo Nickl
96. Victor Mancini
97. Anton Johannesson
98. Samuel Knazko
99. Samuel Johannesson
100. Simon Kubicek

Just missed: Alexander Nikishin, Antonio Stranges, Dmitri Zlodeyev, Calle Clang, James Hardie, Adam Wilsby, Benjamin Baumgartner, Oskar Magnusson, Daemon Hunt, Artyom Galimov, Viktor Persson, Ethan Cardwell, Luke Tuch, Dylan Peterson, Pavel Novak, Samuel Hlavaj, Jan Bednar.
 
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Llamamoto

Nice Bison. Kind Bison. Yep.
Sep 5, 2018
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Solid list + writeups.

I like to see Bourque in the top-20, although I still think he should go higher. I have him in the 10-15 range.
 

emptyNedder

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Nice job. The number/grade adds another layer that makes the ranking a great discussion starter.

I would probably be higher with the numbers and lower with the grades after the first dozen or so. Every draft has a few Mark Stone/John Klingberg/Brayden Point players who end up being eights or nines. Likely there are multiple of those players in this draft, but all are Ds or Fs because all but one or two won't get there in the NHL.
For instance, I think Berard is a 9D. He could end up nearly as good as Marchand, but it is highly unlikely. Jurmo could end up being a beast with his size and speed, so more of an 8F than a 7C.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
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Good list, but the scoring system is a bit hard to interpret. How is a "high-end 2C" the same ceiling as a "top-6 offensive forward"? Also, how is a "low end 1C" just one rank below the ceiling of a star winger or top-end 1C?
 

pc_md

Registered User
Jun 3, 2006
536
56
Great job ! I like the overview and grade system. Ranking is also solid (in line with my personal scouting and your argumentation).

Small discussion point: I do not think Justin Barron had a poor showing when he came back. I have him more like a 6B than a 7D. I do not see much offensive upside in him but a Dman with very solid transitional skills.
 

ConnorMcMullet

#12 Colby Cave
Jun 10, 2017
10,293
18,030
Nice job. The number/grade adds another layer that makes the ranking a great discussion starter.

I would probably be higher with the numbers and lower with the grades after the first dozen or so. Every draft has a few Mark Stone/John Klingberg/Brayden Point players who end up being eights or nines. Likely there are multiple of those players in this draft, but all are Ds or Fs because all but one or two won't get there in the NHL.
For instance, I think Berard is a 9D. He could end up nearly as good as Marchand, but it is highly unlikely. Jurmo could end up being a beast with his size and speed, so more of an 8F than a 7C.
That's true, but by that logic everyone would be getting an 8F past the 1st round. To avoid this, I tried to grade them on the highest ceiling I think they could realistically achieve.

Good list, but the scoring system is a bit hard to interpret. How is a "high-end 2C" the same ceiling as a "top-6 offensive forward"? Also, how is a "low end 1C" just one rank below the ceiling of a star winger or top-end 1C?
The grading system isn't perfect and two players with the same number grade won't have the exact same ceiling. However, this was my general thought process:

10 - Generational
9 - Star player
8 - 1st line F or top-pairing D
7 - High-end top-6 F or #2/3D
6 - 2nd line F or #4D
5 - Middle-6 F or #4/5D
 
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ConnorMcMullet

#12 Colby Cave
Jun 10, 2017
10,293
18,030
For reference, Crosby and McDavid are probably the only current players that I would have given 10A grades to at the time of their drafts, and even then I'm not sure. Depending on how he develops, Shane Wright could also get a rating beginning with a 10 in 2022.
 

ConnorMcMullet

#12 Colby Cave
Jun 10, 2017
10,293
18,030
The list has now been updated to include my top-100, as well as honourable mentions and my sleeper candidates past that.

I also moved Dawson Mercer up to 12.
 

57special

Posting the right way since 2012.
Sep 5, 2012
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Surprised that more didn't fight you on the Zary rating vs Mercer, Jarvis, and Reichel. Also don't know how you factor in that he is a C rather than W, which makes him more valuable, all things being otherwise equal.
 

majormajor

Registered User
Jun 23, 2018
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Don't tell me what the ceiling is. That's boring. Tell me what level you believe they'll reach.

That's what the letter grade is for. "A" means he'll make it, "B" means probably one line lower, "C" means probably two lines lower, etc..

Edit: Actually take out the word "probably" and replace it with "good chance". Rossi at 8.0B isn't "probably" a second liner, he's probably an average topliner with a 40% or so chance of being a second liner.
 
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Blues0307

Registered User
May 25, 2009
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St. Louis
Good write-ups, you deserve credit for putting together a list like this. Hoping the Blues trade down out of their 1st round pick and pick up two 2nds in the process. My current targets are Bordeleau and Brisson, but I've not watched everyone yet.
 

emptyNedder

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Don't tell me what the ceiling is. That's boring. Tell me what level you believe they'll reach.
I see it the opposite. There has been some interesting academic work (I have heard Namita Nandakumar on a hockey-graphs podcast) on draft strategy that indicates that drafting the highest ceilings possible is optimal. Given that, the most value* is estimating that player A has a significantly higher ceiling than player B.

*Of course, getting Chromiak, Heineman, and Wisdom to play for free is probably the best value.:sarcasm:
 
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Fantomas

Registered User
Aug 7, 2012
13,295
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:sarcasm::sarcasm:
I see it the opposite. There has been some interesting academic work (I have heard Namita Nandakumar on a hockey-graphs podcast) on draft strategy that indicates that drafting the highest ceilings possible is optimal. Given that, the most value* is estimating that player A has a significantly higher ceiling than player B.

*Of course, getting Chromiak, Heineman, and Wisdom to play for free is probably the best value.:sarcasm:

I don't disagree with this. I just find that sometimes writeups overemphasize ceilings of players and that information is often common knowledge by the time the draft rolls around. Which is why it is sometimes more interesting to get into other nuances.

Maybe my observation was unfairly applied to this specific approach in this thread. Carry on.
 

ConnorMcMullet

#12 Colby Cave
Jun 10, 2017
10,293
18,030
I don't disagree with this. I just find that sometimes writeups overemphasize ceilings of players and that information is often common knowledge by the time the draft rolls around. Which is why it is sometimes more interesting to get into other nuances.

Maybe my observation was unfairly applied to this specific approach in this thread. Carry on.
Predicting how all these players will turn out is impossible. I would not be able to look at this draft and point out which players will bust and which will surprise, nor would anyone else. Every player has a chance to succeed.

What I did was identify what I view as the players' ceilings and gave them a grade on their likelihood of reaching it.
 

NitroF

Registered User
Feb 6, 2006
250
134
Enjoyed reading this a lot!

Isn’t Zion Nybeck worth of a top 100 nod?

PS: It’s William Villeneuve (no ‘a’)
 
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bsu

"I have no idea what I am doing" -Pat VerBleak
Sep 27, 2017
28,539
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Nice post, I completely disagree with Sanderson post I think he is the best defensemen in this draft
 

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