McDavid's season at prime Gretzky/Lemieux level?

Is McDavid's season at prime Gretzky/Lemieux level?


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Sidney the Kidney

One last time
Jun 29, 2009
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Is anyone actually expecting this to happen considering he paced for 125 with a serious leg injury he played through the first half of last season?

I don't know if I expect him to drop below 125 points next year, but I do want to wait and see whether he can play at a 1.89 points per game pace over 82 games versus the entire league first before I'll consider believing his production is on par with Gretzky/Lemieux levels.

Even if he drops back to 125-130 points, it'll suggest this year was an outlier because of the weird shortened season and divisional format.
 
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Muggs

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Oct 29, 2016
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I don't know if I expect him to drop below 125 points next year, but I do want to wait and see whether he can play at a 1.89 points per game pace over 82 games versus the entire league first before I'll consider believing his production is on par with Gretzky/Lemieux levels.

Even if he drops back to 125-130 points, it'll suggest this year was an outlier because of the weird shortened season and divisional format.
What if this would have been his peak 82 game season under normal circumstances? If he drops back to 1.5 +ppg next year the argument is stronger in favour of an outlier season, but what if he gets 140 -145 points (1.70-1.75+ppg)? The answer is much less obvious imo.
 

Sidney the Kidney

One last time
Jun 29, 2009
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What if this would have been his peak 82 game season under normal circumstances? If he drops back to 1.5 +ppg next year the argument is stronger in favour of an outlier season, but what if he gets 140 -145 points (1.70-1.75+ppg)? The answer is much less obvious imo.

Doesn't matter. If he doesn't produce like he did this year next year when it's an 82 game schedule, then it's an outlier/anomaly. That's how it works.

The reason Gretzky is considered how he is isn't due to one outlier season. He had multiple seasons of 200+ points. That's why he's "The Great One". If Gretzky had one 200 point season and then a bunch of 130 point seasons, that 200 point season would be the anomaly.
 

Muggs

Registered User
Oct 29, 2016
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Doesn't matter. If he doesn't produce like he did this year next year when it's an 82 game schedule, then it's an outlier/anomaly. That's how it works.

The reason Gretzky is considered how he is isn't due to one outlier season. He had multiple seasons of 200+ points. That's why he's "The Great One". If Gretzky had one 200 point season and then a bunch of 130 point seasons, that 200 point season would be the anomaly.
I get that, but your example is a 70 point increase (or drop), whereas going from 200 points to 170-175 point is a much different proposition. If McDavid is on pace for 155 points this year over 82, but 'only' gets 140 next year, is it really considered an outlier? Or just the peak year of his peak years? We may need a few more seasons to put it into proper perspective.
 

Sidney the Kidney

One last time
Jun 29, 2009
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I get that, but your example is a 70 point increase (or drop), whereas going from 200 points to 170-175 point is a much different proposition. If McDavid is on pace for 155 points this year over 82, but 'only' gets 140 next year, is it really considered an outlier? Or just the peak year of his peak years? We may need a few more seasons to put it into proper perspective.

But the context of this thread is comparing his season(s) to peak Gretzky/Lemieux. So in order for his season to be on par with theirs, then this year's production would have to be proven to not be an outlier due to the short season and weird divisional alignment. If he drops down to 140 points, that's not on par with Gretzky/Lemieux's peak, so it would put into question whether this year was an outlier due to the nature of the season.
 

Muggs

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Oct 29, 2016
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But the context of this thread is comparing his season(s) to peak Gretzky/Lemieux. So in order for his season to be on par with theirs, then this year's production would have to be proven to not be an outlier due to the short season and weird divisional alignment. If he drops down to 140 points, that's not on par with Gretzky/Lemieux's peak, so it would put into question whether this year was an outlier due to the nature of the season.
Well I voted yes, so I do think it's on par, but my point beyond that is about whether he needs to get 1.89 ppg again to validate it. I understand the validation perspective from the skeptics, I just don't agree that a slight drop-off in points production over 82 next year (1.70-1.75 ppg) is enough to do it, especially if it becomes his new standard over the next few years. Then it's more a peak year then an anomaly. But at the end of the day people will think what they think. The perspective of time will ultimately decide.
 
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DomBarr

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Apr 7, 2014
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This season should always have an asterix next to it. It is an anomaly to play such a focused schedule.
 

authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
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I don't know if I expect him to drop below 125 points next year, but I do want to wait and see whether he can play at a 1.89 points per game pace over 82 games versus the entire league first before I'll consider believing his production is on par with Gretzky/Lemieux levels.

Even if he drops back to 125-130 points, it'll suggest this year was an outlier because of the weird shortened season and divisional format.

I don't think he sustains that, but his dominance will still be a lot closer to this season than before. Unless Draisaitl or Matthews has an absolutely unreal season both also playing a normal schedule again which I somehow doubt.
 

authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
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Well I voted yes, so I do think it's on par, but my point beyond that is about whether he needs to get 1.89 ppg again to validate it. I understand the validation perspective from the skeptics, I just don't agree that a slight drop-off in points production over 82 next year (1.70-1.75 ppg) is enough to do it, especially if it becomes his new standard over the next few years. Then it's more a peak year then an anomaly. But at the end of the day people will think what they think. The perspective of time will ultimately decide.

No one here will admit to being wrong about anything. If he doesn't get 1.89 you can bet they'll all be on here saying I told you so. I don't see a logical reason to think his dominance will decrease drastically which is really the point.
 

Nathaniel

Registered User
Oct 18, 2013
13,603
4,969
Well I voted yes, so I do think it's on par, but my point beyond that is about whether he needs to get 1.89 ppg again to validate it. I understand the validation perspective from the skeptics, I just don't agree that a slight drop-off in points production over 82 next year (1.70-1.75 ppg) is enough to do it, especially if it becomes his new standard over the next few years. Then it's more a peak year then an anomaly. But at the end of the day people will think what they think. The perspective of time will ultimately decide.
If McDavid can score 1.70 in a normal year than this season should be looked at well.
 
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Thenameless

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Apr 29, 2014
3,854
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I'm glad the poll has it right. We need to let recent players live in peace. They're good in their own right, but comparing to players like Orr, Gretzky, and Lemieux is just too much.
 

Wheatking

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Sep 25, 2006
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It's easy to dismiss his stats because he played against the Sens but there were a lot of players who lit up the Oilers between 2010-2015 when they couldn't win a game to save their lives.

Kessel had 17 points in 10 games (1.70)
Kane had 30 points in 20 games (1.50)
Thornton had 37 in 15 (1.48)
Toews had 28 in 21 (1.33)
D. Sedin had 38 in 29 (1.31)

Its not easy to compare straight across because those stats are over multiple seasons and scoring varied throughout the years, but McDavid put up 2.33 points a game. He did what he was supposed to do against a weaker team...but he did it in a way we haven't seen in a very long time.

And as an Oilers fan, I feel qualified to say what it normally looks like when a star player beats up a terrible team.
 
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JasonRoseEh

Registered User
Oct 23, 2018
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I just can't jive with putting anything in the pantheon when you beat up on the worst division in hockey all year long, sorry.
 

TopShelfYzerman

Gm 7 Double OT
Jan 3, 2011
2,761
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No. The north division inflates stats.

I compiled McDavid's career pts/g stats against all 30 teams he has played against (from highest to lowest). Highlighted are his divisional rivals.

Panthers 2.000
Jackets 1.9000
Flyers 1.8888
Sens 1.8333
Jets 1.7826

Avs 1.7692
Devils 1.6666
Nucks 1.6000
Stars 1.5833
Bruins 1.5714
Golden Knights 1.5000
Rags 1.5000
Ducks 1.4117

McDavid Career Pts/g 1.4113

Leafs 1.3888
Preds 1.3846
Caps 1.3750
Lightning 1.3333
Flames 1.3333
Sharks 1.3157
Canadiens 1.3157
Kings 1.3000
Pens 1.2500
Yotes 1.1666
Canes 1.1428
Wild 1.1428
Isles 1.1111
Wings 1.1111
Hawks .9090
Sabres .8888
Blues .7333

As shown above, McDavid's career average pts/g is 1.4113. Again divisional rivals are highlighted. Mind you the stats against divisional rivals are boosted from his current historic season. This narrative that McDavid gets to beat up on the weak North simply isn't true. The numbers talk.
 

snipes

How cold? I’m ice cold.
Dec 28, 2015
54,882
61,422
Yes.

He is absolutely in the caliber of talent and the season he just had is simply remarkable.

He’ll likely break the record for percentage of teams points he’s been in on. Currently at 57% that is obscene.

More assists than the next nearest non-teammate has points. That’s lapping competition in Gretzky/Lemieux type way.

Then there is the eye test, he is just head and shoulders better than anyone else in the world.

The Great One. The Magnificent One. The Transcendent One.

He’s in that caliber of player, now hopefully he gets the team success so it’s recognized just how good he is. Those who watch him on a nightly basis already know.
 
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Luigi Lemieux

Registered User
Sep 26, 2003
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Can't say yes unless this level is repeated next year. As dominant as he's been he's played one good team all year in Toronto.
 
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Gurglesons

Registered User
Dec 18, 2009
91,486
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last-train-tocool.blogspot.com
I don't think he sustains that, but his dominance will still be a lot closer to this season than before. Unless Draisaitl or Matthews has an absolutely unreal season both also playing a normal schedule again which I somehow doubt.

what happened to McDavid the year before the knee injury?

that’s what people don’t understand about the dominance Lemieux and Gretzky put up compared to Ovechkin and Sid and McDavid. It wasn’t a question. They won the Ross. There was no question if healthy that one of them was winning it from basically their rookie season in the NHL onward.
 

authentic

Registered User
Jan 28, 2015
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what happened to McDavid the year before the knee injury?

that’s what people don’t understand about the dominance Lemieux and Gretzky put up compared to Ovechkin and Sid and McDavid. It wasn’t a question. They won the Ross. There was no question if healthy that one of them was winning it from basically their rookie season in the NHL onward.

Kucherov had a great season on an all time great team with some luck on top of it, McDavid was 21/22 years old. He's literally at his peak now and likely for the next few seasons. He'll run away with the scoring race again if healthy. I don't even think this season is on the level of Gretzky and Lemieux btw, but it's far closer to those than any other seasons in the past 30 years. His dominance over the rest of the NHL is ridiculous.
 
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Gurglesons

Registered User
Dec 18, 2009
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Kucherov had a great season on an all time great team with some luck on top of it, McDavid was 21/22 years old. He's literally at his peak now and likely for the next few seasons. He'll run away with the scoring race again if healthy. I don't even think this season is on the level of Gretzky and Lemieux btw, but it's far closer to those than any other seasons in the past 30 years. His dominance over the rest of the NHL is ridiculous.

We will see. Great season. Huge props. I just think we will see next year.

prime Gretzky and Lemieux when healthy aren’t losing a Ross though. So as we look at this thread topic I can’t put it on that level.

also hasn’t it been shown that statistically peak performance is 20-24 for NHL players?
 

thadd

Oil4Life
Jun 9, 2007
26,717
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Canada
Anyone who is old enough to clearly remember Lemieux or Gretzky in their prime would not be voting for McDavid.
 

Luigi Lemieux

Registered User
Sep 26, 2003
21,440
9,062
Ppg leaders in the 80s
Gretzky 2.40
Lemieux 1.96
Bossy 1.56
Stastny 1.41
Kurri 1.38

Ppg leaders in the 90s
Lemieux 2.06
Gretzky 1.37
Lindros 1.36
Jagr 1.32
LaFontaine 1.30

Gretzky/Lemieux just on another level, they even lapped their teammates. McDavid is still firmly in the Jagr/Crosby/Ovechkin level. If he can get big separation from Draisaitl next year and then keep it up for another 3-4 years I might reconsider.
 
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