McDavid the Gold Standard for NHL salaries, Leaf comparables.

[Bluelines]

In any free economy there is a standard for determining value of a currency, historically gold was considered the standard, which is where the term Gold Standard comes from.

In the NHL the Gold Standard is Connor McDavid, he is widely considered the best player in the world, a generational talent. Many people feel that once Connor signed his contract no player will/can/could sign above the standard his contract set.

Enter our two RFA stars who until recently were both up for contracts, one recently signed for $11.6 million per year over 5 years and the other is yet to be signed. I thought in terms of production, if they had equal TOI how do our two stars compare to the gold standard.

I based this purely on how many points should our players have if they had equal TOI to Connor, there is no allowance for any other factors. Assuming that Mitch and Austin are conditioned to carry Connors TOI, to my surprise extrapolating production over similar TOI, Matthews and Mitch actually compare very favorably.

Connor currently has 31 goals, 49 assists, for 80 points over 54 games, with a total TOI of 1231 minutes.

First Matthews, as he is already signed, he currently has 24 goals and 23 assist over 41 games, with a total TOI of 749 minutes. If we assume Matthews played similar TOI to Connors 1231 minutes, that works out to 39 goals and 38 assists, for 77 points for Matthews.

Now on to Mitch, he currently has 20 goals and 46 assist over 55 games, with a total TOI of 1082 minutes. If we assume Mitch played similar TOI to Connors 1231 minutes, that works out to 23 goals and 52 assists, for 75 points for Mitch.

Again for those that missed it earlier, this is purely a math exercise, there is no allowance for variables like teams they play vs, Connor might play vs better defensive teams or visa versa. Connors conditioning may be better than Mitch and/or Matthews therefore he can play at that high level of TOI. Team style may have an influence, one team may have better structure / more opportunities for one team vs the others. Quality of teammates, Connor mat have more opportunities because his team is not as deep as the Leafs and so on and so on.

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[Stephen]

Not sure how this era will play out in terms of cap management and winning, but from their rookie seasons, it seemed like MLSE's parent companies media wings at Bell and Rogers were busy working over time to hype up Matthews, Marner and Nylander and inflate their contract statuses beyond what they'd be able to ask for in a smaller market.

This seems like a bit of a problem on the surface, but I also wonder if MLSE can point to these guys with NCAA, European and UFA recruits and say "if you come here and do well, the media hype in this market is going to make sure you get paid."

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Not sure how this era will play out in terms of cap management and winning, but from their rookie seasons, it seemed like MLSE's parent companies media wings at Bell and Rogers were busy working over time to hype up Matthews, Marner and Nylander and inflate their contract statuses beyond what they'd be able to ask for in a smaller market.

This seems like a bit of a problem on the surface, but I also wonder if MLSE can point to these guys with NCAA, European and UFA recruits and say "if you come here and do well, the media hype in this market is going to make sure you get paid."

The problem is, do the the dramatic overpayments you cited above, the leafs won’t be able to AFFORD these ufa’s you speak of.

Only in leafland. It’s apparently “good” that our gm dramatically overpays players because now more players will want to come here to get overpaid.

Can’t make this stuff up.

 

[Stephen]

The problem is, do the the dramatic overpayments you cited above, the leafs won’t be able to AFFORD these ufa’s you speak of.

Only in leafland. It’s apparently “good” that our gm dramatically overpays players because now more players will want to come here to get overpaid.

Can’t make this stuff up.

I don't think they're "dramatically" overpaid. Nylander's contract is within the normal range of a high end RFA deal, whereas Matthews is a premium. Will see an uptick in the value of RFA deals signed by Point, Rantanen, Marner, Barzal, Pettersson, Laine etc.

 

[Al14]

The problem is, do the the dramatic overpayments you cited above, the leafs won’t be able to AFFORD these ufa’s you speak of.

Only in leafland. It’s apparently “good” that our gm dramatically overpays players because now more players will want to come here to get overpaid.

Can’t make this stuff up.

Apparently, MLSE can sell compressed air for unlimited cap space. Who knew?

 

[Mickey Marner]

McDavid should be the glass ceiling of RFA contracts, he signed a brutal one though and came in rather low.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Not sure how this era will play out in terms of cap management and winning, but from their rookie seasons, it seemed like MLSE's parent companies media wings at Bell and Rogers were busy working over time to hype up Matthews, Marner and Nylander and inflate their contract statuses beyond what they'd be able to ask for in a smaller market.

This seems like a bit of a problem on the surface, but I also wonder if MLSE can point to these guys with NCAA, European and UFA recruits and say "if you come here and do well, the media hype in this market is going to make sure you get paid."

They definitely took the whip 'em out and measure 'em approach. Logically, it makes sense to pay Matthews a premium for what will likely be the best 5 year period of his career. But it only makes sense if you're re-allocating money that otherwise would've been spent on a declining UFA, like, for instance, Patrick Marleau. The last team to pay its RFAs premium was Pittsburgh, though they didn't win a cup during the period that both Crosby & Malkin were on their second contracts.

 

[tmlms13]

If the cap remained the same every year I'd agree with OP. But it doesn't. CM's % of cap hit is the number not his actual salary.

 

[Wafflewhipper]

In any free economy there is a standard for determining value of a currency, historically gold was considered the standard, which is where the term Gold Standard comes from.

In the NHL the Gold Standard is Connor McDavid, he is widely considered the best player in the world, a generational talent. Many people feel that once Connor signed his contract no player will/can/could sign above the standard his contract set.

Enter our two RFA stars who until recently were both up for contracts, one recently signed for $11.6 million per year over 5 years and the other is yet to be signed. I thought in terms of production, if they had equal TOI how do our two stars compare to the gold standard.

I based this purely on how many points should our players have if they had equal TOI to Connor, there is no allowance for any other factors. Assuming that Mitch and Austin are conditioned to carry Connors TOI, to my surprise extrapolating production over similar TOI, Matthews and Mitch actually compare very favorably.

Connor currently has 31 goals, 49 assists, for 80 points over 54 games, with a total TOI of 1231 minutes.

First Matthews, as he is already signed, he currently has 24 goals and 23 assist over 41 games, with a total TOI of 749 minutes. If we assume Matthews played similar TOI to Connors 1231 minutes, that works out to 39 goals and 38 assists, for 77 points for Matthews.

Now on to Mitch, he currently has 20 goals and 46 assist over 55 games, with a total TOI of 1082 minutes. If we assume Mitch played similar TOI to Connors 1231 minutes, that works out to 23 goals and 52 assists, for 75 points for Mitch.

Again for those that missed it earlier, this is purely a math exercise, there is no allowance for variables like teams they play vs, Connor might play vs better defensive teams or visa versa. Connors conditioning may be better than Mitch and/or Matthews therefore he can play at that high level of TOI. Team style may have an influence, one team may have better structure / more opportunities for one team vs the others. Quality of teammates, Connor mat have more opportunities because his team is not as deep as the Leafs and so on and so on.

Really Good simple concept for a simple comparable. Well done i like it!!

 

[Menzinger]

McDavid is underpaid by a fair margin so I don’t think he necessarily should be viewed as the main standard for anything

 

[Buds17]

No disagreement with McDavid as the gold standard and best player in the NHL. Problem being, he is currently in the first year of the contract. Even if he remains the league's best player throughout that contract, it's unfortunately not very realistic to expect him to remain the league's highest paid for too long if the cap continues to increase. Fair to debate who should pass him and when that should happen though.

 

[Buds17]

delete

 

[LeafFever]

With the cap changing yearly, it's worthless to compare past contracts.

 

[Nineteen67]

McDavid had no business signing 40% more than Crosby.

 

[81Leafs50]

The problem is, do the the dramatic overpayments you cited above, the leafs won’t be able to AFFORD these ufa’s you speak of.

Only in leafland. It’s apparently “good” that our gm dramatically overpays players because now more players will want to come here to get overpaid.

Can’t make this stuff up.

Matthews scored 40 goals in his rookie year.

He is a franchise no 1 C.

How would Crosby, Malkin, Ovie, McDavid get today as free agents.

Leafs got Matthews at a lower number than what any of the players would have gotten.

Without taking into account the cap increasing, just take Brown making $2.1M on the 4th line, Jake Gardiner, and Marleau. Thats just over $13 mill right there. Plus the Leafs have the Horton contract for one more season to use. With Horton's contract on LTIR ($5.3M), the Leafs have pretty much gotten Marleau ($6.25M) at 950k for the last 3 seasons.

 

[LeafFever]

The problem is, do the the dramatic overpayments you cited above, the leafs won’t be able to AFFORD these ufa’s you speak of.

Only in leafland. It’s apparently “good” that our gm dramatically overpays players because now more players will want to come here to get overpaid.

Can’t make this stuff up.

Our problem is the Lou contracts actually.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Matthews scored 40 goals in his rookie year.

He is a franchise no 1 C.

How would Crosby, Malkin, Ovie, McDavid get today as free agents.

Leafs got Matthews at a lower number than what any of the players would have gotten.

Without taking into account the cap increasing, just take Brown making $2.1M on the 4th line, Jake Gardiner, and Marleau. Thats just over $13 mill right there. Plus the Leafs have the Horton contract for one more season to use. With Horton's contract on LTIR ($5.3M), the Leafs have pretty much gotten Marleau ($6.25M) at 950k for the last 3 seasons.

When I continuously brought up Pastrnaks goal totals compared to Nylanders, I was told by about 100 people that goals don’t matter. It’s just ppg. We CANT change these metrics player to player.

So using the same metrics that Nylander was overpaid with, Matthews career high is 69 points at time of signing. That does NOT bode well in comparisons to Crosby, Malkin, and McDavid. Not even CLOSE. Everyone of those 3 topped 100 points AT LEAST once.It’s a HORRIBLE contract. Aborderline evil contract.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Our problem is the Lou contracts actually.

Saying “Lou also had some horrible contracts” doesn’t make me feel better about Dubas’ horrible contracts.

 

[AllDay28]

which contract is horrible all knowing community?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

With the cap changing yearly, it's worthless to compare past contracts.

No it’s not. You look at percentage of cap hit at time of signing.

 

[AllDay28]

I love this random thought that these contracts were bad, as if you guys could of got a better deal out of him. . I mean, the player wouldnt sign and become a RFA unless he got his demands.. and you guys think Dubas and them didnt exhaust their abilities to shrink the cap hit? lolllll holy moly.

 

[ImpartialNHLfan]

I love this random thought that these contracts were bad, as if you guys could of got a better deal out of him. . I mean, the player wouldnt sign and become a RFA unless he got his demands.. and you guys think Dubas and them didnt exhaust their abilities to shrink the cap hit? lolllll holy moly.

Basically yeah. If Matthews starting asking price was 14m/8, it pretty much works out to 11.6m/5... Nylander started with 8.5/8, ended with 7.5m/6. Im sure Dubas tried to shrink the cap hit, I just don't think he knows how it works. Don't get me wrong, Dubas has a good eye for talent, but he's clueless with negotiating. Im expecting a 10m/4y contract for Marner.

 

[LeafFever]

Cap will be 100 million within 3 years. We are fine.

 

[egd27]

McDavid had no business signing 40% more than Crosby.

Apples and oranges since the contracts were signed under different CBA's.

If the Oilers could have created a 12-15 year back diving contract, the AAV may have looked quite different.

Look at Crosby's actual salary for the first 8 years, and then factor inflation and it's not much different than what McDavid got,

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I love this random thought that these contracts were bad, as if you guys could of got a better deal out of him. . I mean, the player wouldnt sign and become a RFA unless he got his demands.. and you guys think Dubas and them didnt exhaust their abilities to shrink the cap hit? lolllll holy moly.

The leaf players wouldn't sign for less? I guess there is no point whatsoever to even have a general manager. Just pull some random guy out of the subway and pay him minimum wage to manage the team.
Why?
Because apparently the players just tell the GM what they're willing to sign for, and then they sit back and wait for the GM to give it to them. Literally nothing else goes into the equation, according to "allday28 on the internet".