And you're severely overrating the Toronto duo.
Out West, people are bombarded by Eastern games. And, in Canada, last time I checked, Leafs games. I'm sure Oilers fans have a better grasp and have watched the Leafs players more than you've watched Oilers players considering that by the time most of the games start in Western timezones, you're in bed. As for the 50-40 line for Matthews, that's about where I expect him to top out in his career years but he is not a "borderline generational" player. This board is obsessed with the term and people have devalued it to a point where the case might as well be made that every player in the league is generational in one aspect or another.
And here's the problem. You wrap yourself up in hypocrisy when you think Matthews et al are going to make these linear and substantial leaps in improvement while McDavid stagnates while basically at the exact same point in his career and the exact same experience and the same age as Matthews. Anybody that watched him last season can easily attest to the fact that he has the potential to regularly exceed 110 points and likely hit 120+ a few years. It's what he would've gotten last year if he hadn't slumped in December and been saddled with Eberle a third of the season.
Here is where this theory fails. You guys hate getting bombarded with Toronto, so you spend all your time watching it? Look, I have a sports package and get MLB games. When I tune into sportsnet, they talk about the MLB. Even with all of this, I have never sat down and watched a full MLB game on TV.
Point being just because you HAVE access to the games, does not in any way guarantee you watch them. Also your point about most fans being in bed? The same applies to fans out west who are usually at work, commutting home, or doing generally anything else than rushing home at 4PM to watch the Leafs on TV unless they are a fan.
As for your 2nd paragraph, with the data we have available, we know that the biggest jump in production is always from rookie season > 2nd season. After that, it is a gradual progression. I would not be surprised to see McDavid put up 105 points or something like that. However, he will not see as big of a jump in his point totals from last year to this year as Matthews will
based on the data available for player trends.
It also depends on other factors. As Oiler fans like to point out when defending Drai, he boosted McDavid's points playing with him. Well, is Drai going to be his full time winger? Or is he going to be the 2nd line C full time on his own line? If it's the former, then the Oilers have severely overpaid Drai. If it's the latter, who does Edmonton have that can replace Drai on McDavid's wing?
Lol, yeah you totally got those discounts with Kessel and Phanuef right? Also Marleau who just got signed under current management sign for a discount right?
Those were UFA contracts vs RFA contracts. Players will be more likely to take a discount during RFA years, and I don't recall anyone expecting Kessel or Phaneuf to take a discount. I think it was pretty much agreed upon Phaneuf would get 7x7 and Kessel at least 8M. The most I remember are some Leaf fans saying they wouldn't sign them to those deals, not that they would take a discount.