Value of: McCarron to the Leafs

[Habs Halifax]

I don't agree but I know its debatable. I'm pretty sure I have Gauthier higher on my list than yours so I doubt quoting stats or fancy chart showing will change anything on both of our opinions, but I'll just leave that I like what I saw from Gauthier during his WJC and the few times I saw live. I know he has limited upside but I also think that big defensive minded center are going to be a big need in the future.

Gauthier may make it to 3rd line center one day but he has a big mountain to climb at this stage. It's early yet so who knows. But as it stands today, he's not looking very promising.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I could see the Habs wanting Gardiner in such a deal. I doubt Toronto would do it though.

Personally I say no to Gardiner. Habs D is actually fine. Sucks Pateryn went down but he'll be back for the playoffs. With Emelin playing so well with Weber, the top 4 is set. Habs are looking for a 2nd line center more than a D.

 

[CHaracter79]

I don't agree but I know its debatable. I'm pretty sure I have Gauthier higher on my list than yours so I doubt quoting stats or fancy chart showing will change anything on both of our opinions, but I'll just leave that I like what I saw from Gauthier during his WJC and the few times I saw live. I know he has limited upside but I also think that big defensive minded center are going to be a big need in the future.

SO you are basically describing Jacob De La Rose... only that De LA Rose did that in the NHL yet according to fans from other teams, he sucks.

I agree that Gauthier's value is similar to De LA Rose given potential and type of player.

MCcarron is playign a new position in the AHL at C and is still learning. If he were to play wing, im sure hed be much closer ot a PPG then he is now.

I think he will end ui p being a 3C or a winger in the middle 6 capable of paying top 6 minutes especially on the PP

 

[Habs Halifax]

mccaron and (therrien) vs babcock...

At least Therrien is something with Price. What has Babcock done with the Leafs so far? That offense is pretty darn good but Babcock can't seem to shore up the team D. And they even went and got yet ANOTHER goalie.

 

[LeafGm]

Both are later 1st round picks. What has Kapanen done in the AHL that McCarron hasn't? What are your reasons why Kapanen is a clear tier above McCarron? Be careful with overvaluing Kapanen because your a Leafs fan.

McCarron: 50pts in 79 games
Kapanen: 52pts in 73 games.

It's closer than you think and McCarron has a good combo of size and offensive abilities that is very rare.

This side-by-side comparison kind of conveniently ignores that you're including the numbers Kapanen put up as an 18 & 19 year-old in the AHL, while McCarron didn't begin his AHL career until a couple of years later at 20 years of age.

Now, the fact that McCarron got to the AHL later isn't necessarily a knock on him. As a player drafted out of the USHL, he did also have the option of playing in the AHL as a teenager like Kapanen did as a European draftee. But there's any number of possible reasons why the Habs & Leafs may have chosen the particular development paths they did for these players that might not reflect on them personally.

But even so, lumping together Kapanen's numbers as a 18/19/20 year old and comparing them at face value with McCarron's numbers as a 20/21 year old makes for a disingenuous comparison that's not really worth much.

The only apples-to-apples comparison you can really make between these two players is their 20 year-old seasons, which they've both mostly spent in the AHL (with McCarron getting a 20-game NHL call-up in there as well):

Kasperi Kapanen: GP 25, G 13, A 12, Pts 25, 1.00 PPG (82-game pace: G 43, A 39, Pts 82)
Michael McCarron: GP 58, G 17, A 21, Pts 38, 0.66 PPG (82-game pace: G 24, A 30, Pts 54)

...and even that's not really a perfect comparison, since Kapanen's thus far played only half the number of games McCarron did at that age. But at least so far, 20 year-old Kapanen has a pretty decisive edge over what 20 year-old McCarron did at the same age. Kapanen's even doing significantly better than what McCarron has done this year as a 21 year-old in the AHL:

Michael McCarron (21): GP 21, G 4, A 8, Pts 12, 0.57 PPG (82-game pace: G 16, A 31, Pts 47)

Another plus for Kapanen is that he's shown significant improvement since last season, while McCarron has slightly regressed so far.

 

[TML1967]

McCarron is a nice player, but has he worked out the kinks with his skating?
Watching him allot in junior and the AHL last year, his speed was ok but his mobility was pretty below average for the NHL, even for a big guy.

He seems to know where to go, and when to lay a big hit. He goes hard to the net and has the size and strength to really lean on D men. Saying that, withou a pretty large jump in his skating ability I dont see him as being a legit 3rd line C, but more a **** down 4th line guy who can jump up if injuries happen.

Loved watching him in junior, and he looked great against top line guys in the AHL but he gets beat badly when he goes against 'speed' lines.

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Id love to see him on the Leafs as a project player, but not sure his value is equal to where he was drafted still (i.e. lateish 1st rounder). From the Leafs id move Bozak in a package deal for him, as I do think especially with the injuries happening to MTL they could use a good #2C.

 

[Habs Halifax]

McCarron is a nice player, but has he worked out the kinks with his skating?
Watching him allot in junior and the AHL last year, his speed was ok but his mobility was pretty below average for the NHL, even for a big guy.

He seems to know where to go, and when to lay a big hit. He goes hard to the net and has the size and strength to really lean on D men. Saying that, withou a pretty large jump in his skating ability I dont see him as being a legit 3rd line C, but more a **** down 4th line guy who can jump up if injuries happen.

Loved watching him in junior, and he looked great against top line guys in the AHL but he gets beat badly when he goes against 'speed' lines.

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Id love to see him on the Leafs as a project player, but not sure his value is equal to where he was drafted still (i.e. lateish 1st rounder). From the Leafs id move Bozak in a package deal for him, as I do think especially with the injuries happening to MTL they could use a good #2C.

Leafs value Bozak a bit too much. He's not 2nd line center material on the Habs roster. Sorry. With the Habs, it's make a depth move or big move for elite level center or no deal at all. They are not in terrible shape up the middle as some are thinking. But they do lack the offense type guy... Sorry, that's not Bozak.

Personally, I think Kadri would be the only guy we would be interested in (that might be available in the right deal). Leafs and Habs are never good trading partners though.

 

[Randy Randerson]

You continue to agree the Gap is very small

the gap is small the same way the gap is small between Andrew Nielsen and Mikhail Sergachev, sure

 

[Benstheman]

Personally I say no to Gardiner. Habs D is actually fine. Sucks Pateryn went down but he'll be back for the playoffs. With Emelin playing so well with Weber, the top 4 is set. Habs are looking for a 2nd line center more than a D.

Emelin has done a decent job but this pair lacks puckmoving and offense. This is strickly a physical defensive pair, which i like, but Weber needs to play with an offensive minded D that can play 24-25 minutes.

We wont go far with Emelin as no.2 D.

We need a top 2 D as much as a no.2 center.

 

[Habs Halifax]

This side-by-side comparison kind of conveniently ignores that you're including the numbers Kapanen put up as an 18 & 19 year-old in the AHL, while McCarron didn't begin his AHL career until a couple of years later at 20 years of age.

Now, the fact that McCarron got to the AHL later isn't necessarily a knock on him. As a player drafted out of the USHL, he did also have the option of playing in the AHL as a teenager like Kapanen did as a European draftee. But there's any number of possible reasons why the Habs & Leafs may have chosen the particular development paths they did for these players that might not reflect on them personally.

But even so, lumping together Kapanen's numbers as a 18/19/20 year old and comparing them at face value with McCarron's numbers as a 20/21 year old makes for a disingenuous comparison that's not really worth much.

The only apples-to-apples comparison you can really make between these two players is their 20 year-old seasons, which they've both mostly spent in the AHL (with McCarron getting a 20-game NHL call-up in there as well):

Kasperi Kapanen: GP 25, G 13, A 12, Pts 25, 1.00 PPG (82-game pace: G 43, A 39, Pts 82)
Michael McCarron: GP 58, G 17, A 21, Pts 38, 0.66 PPG (82-game pace: G 24, A 30, Pts 54)

...and even that's not really a perfect comparison, since Kapanen's thus far played only half the number of games McCarron did at that age. But at least so far, 20 year-old Kapanen has a pretty decisive edge over what 20 year-old McCarron did at the same age. Kapanen's even doing significantly better than what McCarron has done this year as a 21 year-old in the AHL:

Michael McCarron (21): GP 21, G 4, A 8, Pts 12, 0.57 PPG (82-game pace: G 16, A 31, Pts 47)

Another plus for Kapanen is that he's shown significant improvement since last season, while McCarron has slightly regressed so far.

This sounds of an agenda of trying to sell Kapanen higher to me.

- Why would you not include all their AHL games so far? It's a better sample size than cherry picking IMO.

- Kapanen is the more offensive player to me but McCarron is working on his overall game as he is trying to be the Habs 3rd line center. Be careful with just looking at points. It's a big factor but not the only one.

These guys are very close but to me McCarron is more valuable due to his size and progression so far. Also, the Habs need a guy like McCarron in their line-up more than a guy like Kapanen.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Emelin has done a decent job but this pair lacks puckmoving and offense. This is strickly a physical defensive pair, which i like, but Weber needs to play with an offensive minded D that can play 24-25 minutes.

We wont go far with Emelin as no.2 D.

We need a top 2 D as much as a no.2 center.

I keep hearing about the puck moving offense. Did you ever consider that passing the puck is faster than trying to skate with it on your own? Moving the puck via skating with it on your own is impressive but is very overrated and puts the team at risk when the D turns it over. PASS THE PUCK TO THE OPEN GUY... keep it simple

Argue the Emelin/Weber pairing all you want but its very solid and feared to play against. That's what you want in the playoffs. I believe this pairing was a (0) in the game where the Habs lost 10-0 to the Blue Jackets. How impressive is that?

I disagree. We absolutely need a 2nd line center upgrade over Pleky. The D is fine!

 

[lamp9post]

I think Bozak would be a solid addition for the Habs, but not at the expense of McCarron. I'd see what the cost would be in terms of picks for Bozak though.

I would also be interested in packaging McCarron for Kadri, but that seems doubtful.

Kapanen is a nice player, but we are stacked with smaller, offensive type players like Hudon, Andrighetto, Carr, and also have Scherbak making progress. Kapenen would be nice to add, but a bit redundant and we have no one like McCarron in the system.

Not sure there is a deal to be made here.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think Bozak would be a solid addition for the Habs, but not at the expense of McCarron. I'd see what the cost would be in terms of picks for Bozak though.

I would also be interested in packaging McCarron for Kadri, but that seems doubtful.

Kapanen is a nice player, but we are stacked with smaller, offensive type players like Hudon, Andrighetto, Carr, and also have Scherbak making progress. Kapenen would be nice to add, but a bit redundant and we have no one like McCarron in the system.

Not sure there is a deal to be made here.

I don't think Bozak would cost much in terms of picks to acquire, he's likely to be exposed in the expansion draft so trading him for futures probably suits us fine...a 2nd+3rd?

We also wouldn't deal Kapanen for McCarron, even though our system is similarly full of smaller scoring wingers (Kapanen is now 6'1" so not all that small anymore). Kapanen is our best prospect now that the big 3 have graduated, he fell to #22 in his draft year despite being rated by many in the top 15 and some inside the top 10 and is now playing his way to bluechip status, scoring like crazy and showcasing his talent. I think if we acquired McCarron that he wouldn't take the top place in our prospect rankings, so this seems like a downgrade despite the size and nastiness factors - something our system also lacks but for now the leafs need to hang on to our lottery tickets unless something we really need comes along like a young, high upside RHD

 

[russ4king]

I don't think Bozak would cost much in terms of picks to acquire, he's likely to be exposed in the expansion draft so trading him for futures probably suits us fine...a 2nd+3rd?

We also wouldn't deal Kapanen for McCarron, even though our system is similarly full of smaller scoring wingers (Kapanen is now 6'1" so not all that small anymore). Kapanen is our best prospect now that the big 3 have graduated, he fell to #22 in his draft year despite being rated by many in the top 15 and some inside the top 10 and is now playing his way to bluechip status, scoring like crazy and showcasing his talent. I think if we acquired McCarron that he wouldn't take the top place in our prospect rankings, so this seems like a downgrade despite the size and nastiness factors - something our system also lacks but for now the leafs need to hang on to our lottery tickets unless something we really need comes along like a young, high upside RHD

Leafs aren't going to expose Bozak in the expansion draft. That's silly.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Leafs aren't going to expose Bozak in the expansion draft. That's silly.

You can protect 7 of: Kadri, JVR, Brown, Rychel, Leipsic, Komarov, Leivo, Bozak. Bozak is the oldest of the group at 30 and makes the 3rd most money, is definitely more expendable than the guys who make more than him in that group and is one of 2 that are probably too old to be a big part of the future

You can argue that he's not the most likely to be exposed I guess, but saying that he outright won't be doesn't line up to me.

Either way, dealing Bozak or one of the guys in that group lets you protect all of the rest

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think Bozak would be a solid addition for the Habs, but not at the expense of McCarron. I'd see what the cost would be in terms of picks for Bozak though.

I would also be interested in packaging McCarron for Kadri, but that seems doubtful.

Kapanen is a nice player, but we are stacked with smaller, offensive type players like Hudon, Andrighetto, Carr, and also have Scherbak making progress. Kapenen would be nice to add, but a bit redundant and we have no one like McCarron in the system.

Not sure there is a deal to be made here.

I'd pass on Bozak. He's not terrible but don't think he's a good fit for the Habs. He would be yet another 3rd line center. Remember, were talkign about this Habs roster and that big hole at 2nd line center. There is a difference between a cup contender and a non playoff team roster. Lets not make lateral moves.

How much of a upgrade is Bozak over Pleky? Not much if any.

 

[russ4king]

You can protect 7 of: Kadri, JVR, Brown, Rychel, Leipsic, Komarov, Leivo, Bozak. Bozak is the oldest of the group at 30 and makes the 3rd most money, is definitely more expendable than the guys who make more than him in that group and is one of 2 that are probably too old to be a big part of the future

You can argue that he's not the most likely to be exposed I guess, but saying that he outright won't be doesn't line up to me.

Either way, dealing Bozak or one of the guys in that group lets you protect all of the rest

There is no chance that the Leafs protect Leivo or Rychel ahead of Bozak. Only possible scenario would be if the Leafs acquired a couple Dman before the expansion draft and they decide to protect more D.

 

[sansabri]

Lol @ Kapanen playing his way to blue-chip status.

 

[Randy Randerson]

There is no chance that the Leafs protect Leivo or Rychel ahead of Bozak. Only possible scenario would be if the Leafs acquired a couple Dman before the expansion draft and they decide to protect more D.

We already have 3 D that we have to protect - Rielly, Gardiner, Carrick

Rychel was just acquired and is producing in the AHL now, Leivo they've kept around rather than dealing for a late round pick a la Peter Holland so he must factor in to some plans. Bozak is 30 on a team whose core is 19 to 22 (Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly). Bozak is more valuable than those two, but less a part of the future IMO so I'm all for turning him into futures that don't need protecting and keeping as many of our prospects as possible

 

[TML1967]

Still havent heard anyone from MTL say if they have fixed his skating.

If they have, he could be a Brian Boyle type circa 2010. (20 goals, around 40 points) if he hits his potential. Thats something teams could be looking for.

If not, he will have a much harder time developing into more than a 4W who can play 3rd line when injuries occur.

Dont get me wrong, he is a nice sized prospect just his skating and a bit of thinking seemed to have held him back at the NHL level so far.

 

[WTFMAN99]

At least Therrien is something with Price. What has Babcock done with the Leafs so far? That offense is pretty darn good but Babcock can't seem to shore up the team D. And they even went and got yet ANOTHER goalie.

That is a personnel issue not a coaching/system issue.

Carrick who is in our top 4 (more often then not) wouldn't crack your line up most likely.

 

[Habs Halifax]

That is a personnel issue not a coaching/system issue.

Carrick who is in our top 4 (more often then not) wouldn't crack your line up most likely.

It might be true but why hire the most expensive coach in the league? What's the purpose on this Leafs young roster? Mike B has to be responsible for something right? What value is he bringing really other than handling the media well. This is the transition year for the leafs where they start their uphill climb. At some point Babcock has to produce results.

 

[Drew311]

Right-now McCarron value is invaluable. He could wind up being a very good player. I think we should hold onto him.

If he gets traded it's not going to be for players who aren't going to be protected.

I had a good chuckle at this. For a couple of reasons.

 

[WTFMAN99]

It might be true but why hire the most expensive coach in the league? What's the purpose on this Leafs young roster? Mike B has to be responsible for something right? What value is he bringing really other than handling the media well. This is the transition year for the leafs where they start their uphill climb. At some point Babcock has to produce results.

Last year was a tank year.

This year I didn't expect much difference, we score a LOT more goal this year but the inconsistencies and youthful mistakes that come when you're dressing like 7 rookies is expected.

Our goal is to upgrade the blueline and get the kids experience, right now we can give the kids experience but the defense thing has to be a timing thing (and more likely an off-season thing).

We upgraded goaltending last off-season and got our franchise centre moving forward. If it's obvious to an idiot like me on HFBoards then I am sure it is obvious to Babcock and Lou that we need an upgrade on defense.

To me I see this as the logical path for our defense.

Rielly-?
Gardiner-Zaitsev
?-Carrick

Next year or so I would like to get a vet LHD for that bottom pairing spot like Hainsey or Daley (if they hit the market)

Top pairing RHD? Everyone wants one so that'll be much harder.

After 2 years hopefully Nielsen, Dermott or Valiev work out for us in that position.

Up front we have Kapanen, Grundstrom, Korshkov, and Rychel to look forward to (hopefully)

Not all prospects work out and I am sure 1-2 will move if we upgrade.

 

[slimbob8]

It might be true but why hire the most expensive coach in the league? What's the purpose on this Leafs young roster? Mike B has to be responsible for something right? What value is he bringing really other than handling the media well. This is the transition year for the leafs where they start their uphill climb. At some point Babcock has to produce results.

Babcock is producing results. His main objective at this point in the rebuild is to continue to develop the young players which he's doing a great job of. That's the only thing they need to be concerned with right now, not the standings. The continued improvement of their young core is obvious and measurable. And just watching the team it's obvious how much they've improved since last season. But they're still a bottom feeder so going from the worst in the league to only one of the worst teams isn't always easily reflected in the standings.

This is year #2 of a full rebuild. Absolutely they should not be expected to be making big jump in the standings from last year. It's only the impatient fans on here that are stating otherwise. Year 3 is typically where you start to see improvement in the standings and possibly inch closer to a playoff spot. It's not until years 4-5 that you should be expected to start locking up playoff spots. Full rebuilds take time and they end up with better results if they're done slowly. Not something our fickle fan base is good at accepting.